The Generals Try to Stop an Iran War

[tamiflyer]

The Generals Try to Stop an Iran War

By Juan Cole

Source: Juancole.com Saturday, February 04, 2012

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It has leaked that US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen. Martin Dempsey warned the Israelis that if they launched a strike on Iran that spiraled into a war, they would be on their own.

Gareth Porter’s report, based on conversations with former officers in the administration of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who claim knowledge of Dempsey’s emphases, comes on the heels of controversial assertions by US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta that Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities this spring or summer. The press, and Panetta, keep reporting that Iran will ‘have enough enriched uranium to make a bomb’ in a year or two. But this assertion is so misleading as to be a lie. What Iran would have enough of is uranium enriched to 3.5% for reactor fuel. Only by embarking on an active program to turn this ‘seed stock’ into highly enriched uranium of 95% could they get material to make a bomb. Since UN inspectors are still visiting the enrichment sites (they were there this week), and since they specify that no civilian nuclear material has been diverted to military uses, we know that Iran is not taking this step. In order to take it, they’d have to kick out the inspectors and go for broke. We’ll know if they decide to do that. If they don’t do it, they just have LEU or low enriched uranium, which can be used to boil water but not for much else, and certainly not for a bomb.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Right wing, and their American backers in the Israel lobbies desperately want the US to go to war with Iran. Iran poses no real threat to Israel, but it does limit Israeli adventurism in Lebanon and elsewhere, and the Likud Party is all about no limits on its ambitions. Netanyahu and his American acolytes, such as the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, keep rattling sabers, not because they likely intend that Israel will go to war with Iran, but to put pressure on Washington to do it for them. If you have never heard of WINEP, just take it from me; your representatives in Congress care what AIPAC organs think far more than they care what you think. WINEP poobah Dennis Ross put out a rumor that Obama was ready to strike Iran. This disinformation 1) put pressure on Iran; 2) put pressure on Obama and 3) legitimized before the fact any aggressive Israeli action.

But the Obama administration is taking no chances that Netanyahu is bluffing. Hence Dempsey’s strict warning.

Obama wants to get the US out of fruitless Middle East wars, not plunge the US into new ones.

Moreover, campaign manager David Axelrod would have a cow at the thought of a war being launched in the midst of a presidential campaign season. Bombings can easily beget wars. Wars are unpredictable, and could spin out of control. You never want to do anything in a campaign season that you can’t control. Search on the Web for ‘Carter and Tabas” or “Operation Eagle Claw” if you want an example of why not.

High Israeli retired officers, including a former chief of staff are also warning against a strike on Iran. Being high officers, they have a realistic assessment of the disaster that could well ensue. Another former chief of staff, Lt. Gen (ret.) Dan Halutz, has just cautioned that Iran is a ‘serious’ but not an ‘existential’ threat to Israel. He is clearly disturbed that tossing around the phrase ‘existential threat’ about a country distant from Israel with very limited military capabilities sets the stage for more self-defeating adventurism.

What is striking to me is the glibness with which the Right wing speaks of an attack on Iran. The UN Security Council has not authorized the use of force against Iran, and Tehran has not attacked any other country. A strike on Iran is therefore a war crime, more especially since it would release radiactive toxins on the people of Isfahan and of the Middle East more generally.

Besides, proponents never say how they would pay for such a war. Iran is three times as populous and geographically much larger than Iraq. So multiply everything in that war by three to get the cost.

Immediate cost: $3 trillion

Long term cost, including veteran care: $9 trillion

US troops killed: 15,000

US troops fairly seriously wounded: 100,000

Iranian dead: 1 – 3 million

Iranian displaced: 12 million

Anyone who advocates such a thing is a sort of monster, in my view.

http://www.zcommunications.org/the-generals-try-to-stop-an-iran-war-by-juan-cole

[one2one]

Iran has already threatened to destroy Israel-- numerous times :

they are the most dangerous, unstable country in the Mid-east

[make11]

Iran has already threatened to destroy Israel-- numerous times :

they are the most dangerous, unstable country in the Mid-east

They have not threatened to destroy anybody...what they have said is that the Israel administration would need to change.

I seriously hope you loonies will not want to go to war because of that kind of wrong sentence pushed by the media???

[one2one]

They have not threatened to destroy anybody...what they have said is that the Israel administration would need to change.

I seriously hope you loonies will not want to go to war because of that kind of wrong sentence pushed by the media???

Iran's Supreme Leader Threatens Israel, U.S.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: We'll help any nation or group that confronts "cancerous tumor" Israel

They have not threatened to destroy anybody...what they have said is that the Israel administration would need to change.

I seriously hope you loonies will not want to go to war because of that kind of wrong sentence pushed by the media???

Google--" iran threatens israel "---lot of articles out there

Iran Threatens Israel with Missile Barrage if Attacked

Iran continues to threaten Israel, this time hinting it will hit it with up to 150,000 missiles if its nuclear facilities are attacked.

[gh0str1der]

They have not threatened to destroy anybody...what they have said is that the Israel administration would need to change.

I seriously hope you loonies will not want to go to war because of that kind of wrong sentence pushed by the media???

Referring to comments by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution, Admadinejad said, "As the imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map."

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/world/africa/26iht-iran.html

[Biker]

Well you no how we used to say sticks and stone will brake your bones, but words will never hurt you needs to be studied agin.

[one2one]

Referring to comments by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution, Admadinejad said, "As the imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map."

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/world/africa/26iht-iran.html

thanks for the link---us " news junkies " have heard these threats against Israel for years

[Cosmo]

What a big mess. We need to remove ourselves from that situation completely but maintain the UN oversight. We should move towards having no dependence on middle eastern resources whatsover. Let's start building America back to it being a healthy and strong nation again. With no dependence at all on other countries. Make them pay us for a change.

[make11]

Iran's Supreme Leader Threatens Israel, U.S.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: We'll help any nation or group that confronts "cancerous tumor" Israel

Google--" iran threatens israel "---lot of articles out there

Iran Threatens Israel with Missile Barrage if Attacked

Iran continues to threaten Israel, this time hinting it will hit it with up to 150,000 missiles if its nuclear facilities are attacked.

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You need to learn to read...it says IF ATTACKED...which country would not defend itself if attacked?

Look, I am not a pro Iran person in any way or form...just tired of seeing the US attack country after country on false premises and claims...

Always thousands or hundreds of thousands of innocent people dying, is this what you want?

And yes, in this kind of issues, I would take New York Times of the source list...propaganda paper bar none

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

***///

US doesn't have to do a thing...

Has sold Israel (and funded) enough to make sure they're capable of thwarting any threat from the likes of Iran.

But hey, lighten up people --

let's look on the bright side & assume Amadininut is not the harbinger of armageddon and everythings gonna be swell!

My heart goes out to peaceful humans everywhere who are stuck in the middle of these egoists & their agendas.

Peace on Earth - Goodwill Toward Men - Go Patriots - Go RV.