Dinar Rumor For once, I can sincerely say, "Steve was right!"

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

In Enorrste's recent post, with his interpretation of a news story about Maliki and the IQD, he starts by saying:

You are not going to believe this!

Let the record show that Steve and I do agree on something. Prophetically, you were right, Steve... I don't believe it.

When one doesn't read a news article with an intention of proving that an RV is coming, but instead tries to interpret what is actually being said, a reasonable person would have a more balanced analysis. And I do have the gall and audacity to consider myself a reasonable person, apparently. With no preconceived theories to prove in mind, here is my analysis of what Maliki is actually saying:

*******************

“Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened.

Maliki says here that, in order to re-evaluate (meaning "reanalyze", not "revalue") the IQD, there are economic conditions that still have to be strengthened, and that the Iraqi government is in the process of making these evaluations. Notice that he doesn't use the past tense and explain that the economy is already strong. We all know that this is not true. He says, "have to be" as in "still needs to be accomplished". The country is in shambles, and when economic indicators show more strength, there will be a more positive evaluation/analysis of the IQD.

"’The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,’ Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center.

This follow up statement tells me that Maliki is optimistic about the future of the IQD, believes that the economy will continue to strengthen due to development and increase in revenues. I suspect that the revenues he is referring to are the IMF loans that Iraq has received. An "increase in revenues" is money coming in from an external source, so this is certainly no reference to the exchange rate which would be an internal development. He is also probably being optimistic about the new budget, and positive developments with the UN and the IMF in general.

"’The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,’ said the Iraqi premier.

The government would not rush matters? An RV at 3.22 in the next week is Steve's idea of "not rushing matters"? No, sir, they are going to "work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. Notice in Enorrste's original post, he skipped over the "work on finding" part of his red highlighted text and impied that they already have guarantees to render this measure a success. "Work on finding" is easily interpreted. Maliki is saying that they haven't found or accomplished the guarantees for success, but that they are working on it.

“The Iraqi dinar's exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency's exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime.

Notice in a previous post how Steve has conveniently redefined "currently" to mean a new exchange rate rather than the obvious interpretation of the current (read: what is actually posted right now) exchange rate? Yet, they use the word "is" in the sentence, "The IQD's exchange rate is suffering..." Well, Steve, is the curent rate suffering, or is the current rate a new RV'ed rate? We can't have it both ways. If Maliki is talking about a current rate meaning an RV'ed rate, then why is it suffering from "low value", and yet he still talks about it in the present tense?

“The exchange rate fell even more after 2003 to reach 1170 dinars per dollar due to the CBI's policy of daily auction, in effect for more than five years now.

The "policy of daily auction" is referring to the managed float that CBI has used to maintain stability of the IQD at the current rate that so many of you have identified as a current practice for a couple years now.

“The policy was lambasted by several economists on the grounds that these auctions do not give the real value of the country's local currency.

And in this last quote we see that economists disagree with the CBI's use of the managed float because it prevents the currency's value from finding its natural homeostasis with economic conditions in the country.

[john1025]

I was wondering when someone was going to point out one obvious flaw in E's anaylsis, Re- evaluate, Not Re Value,the Iraqi Dinar . So many times we see what we want to see rather than what's really there.

So what part of Steve's anaylsis do you agree with?

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

I was wondering when someone was going to point out one obvious flaw in E's anaylsis, Re- evaluate, Not Re Value,the Iraqi Dinar . So many times we see what we want to see rather than what's really there.

So what part of Steve's anaylsis do you agree with?

I agree with the part where he says "You're not going to believe this!"

Actually, I do agree with Steve that there does seem to be a lot going on in Iraq that gives us all good reason to watch the IQD with hope of good news. I jut think that his analysis is obviously biased and overreaching to try and come to a conclusion that is not inherently contained in the actual news story.

FP

[THOR]

I see a lot of energy and TESTONERONE vented here and for what reason ?

We all know its going to happen just sit back and enjoy the ride people no need to stress and get into a verbal battle over little issues at the end of the day we are all here for one thing

RI RI RI

[zoomzoom]

Look, the problem is ,I think, in assuming the translation is correct. We know the translator is not perfect and does not catch the nuances of the language. I'm still going with Steve on this one untill proven wrong. I can only hope I'm right

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

Look, the problem is ,I think, in assuming the translation is correct. We know the translator is not perfect and does not catch the nuances of the language. I'm still going with Steve on this one untill proven wrong. I can only hope I'm right

The original story is written in English. By the way, I also hope Steve is right, so don't let my pessimistic attitude fool you. Just because I disagree with Steve's analysis doesn't mean that I'm not also hoping for the best here! Thanks for your post, zoomzoom.

Here is a bit about Zawya, the company who provided the news story, copied straight from their website "About Us" link:

**********

About zawya

Zawya is the leading Middle East business information company serving the high-end business and financial professional community. Headquartered in Dubai, Zawya has sales and support offices in Lebanon, Kuwait, Malaysia and Singapore serving a global user base of over 212,000 high end business professionals.

Zawya covers detailed information on the top 10,000 companies in the Middle East with comprehensive live news coverage through the exclusive Zawya Dow Jones newswire service. Furthermore, the service provides industry news, macroeconomic reports, country statistics, stock market data as well as specialized databases such as IPO, Sukuk and Private Equity monitors.

In addition to subscription services, Zawya offers advertisers the ability to target the most affluent online audience with an interest in the MENA region. Zawya’s online service caters to and attracts only serious professional users and decision makers as it has the only fee paying user base in the region.

Some of Zawya's prominent clients include: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, ABN Amro, Shuaa Capital, Arab Banking Corporation, Emaar, McKinsey & Co, Ernst & Young, Standard & Poor's, KPMG, Booz Allen Hamilton, US Treasury, United Nation (ESCWA), the World Bank (IFC), BMW Middle East and American Express.

**********

I think that they have a pretty good handle on the English language and it looks like they have a ton of experience in reporting on the Middle East. I trust the translation as much as Steve does.

FP

[UofIGuy]

You CAN'T interpret it the way YOU want to interpret it to make yourself feel better. IT WILL RV, it just hasn't yet! I could say it says that it RV'd at 4.22 in the article, don't you see it? Where it says "process to re-evaluate" just insert "it has revalued at 4.22". Don't you ALL see it?

[Riley]

I see a lot of energy and TESTONERONE vented here and for what reason ?

We all know its going to happen just sit back and enjoy the ride people no need to stress and get into a verbal battle over little issues at the end of the day we are all here for one thing

RI RI RI

I actually enjoy reading both opinions - the knowledge of Fi3ry and E are both impressive...without choosing one side or the other - I don't think they are battling against each other - but educating some of the members on the site to, maybe just maybe, think about what they are actually reading.

I thank both Men and look forward to the continuous threads....

[Barbann]

I wish I could say you were wrong, but I don't think so. I do not believe you can just insert a word into a sentence to justify your own position. This along with the IMF article makes me believe that they are looking at the rv and that there are factions within the country that are not happy with the "managed rate".

I agree with you that there is a huge difference between re-evaluate and revalue. I don't think it is done yet.

All that said I think it would be awesome if Netinfo did weigh in on this since he would have a much better understanding on how particular words are used within the context of a sentence in the Arabic language.

[DgreenFSU66]

FP- may i point out that he stated that M's statement was prior, and S's statement was post-RI. Therefore the statement you refer to that M is speaking of a weak currency makes sense. Re-read the post.

I have no clue if it has or hasnt, i would have thought it would have been confirmed by now if it had. I think we would have seen a press release announcing a RI. They are a proud nation, they will be rubbing our face in it. Just my opinion.

[armondtoth]

The real point here is Unless you are Arabic and can translate Farsie to english you can guess all you want.

[dwise68]

This is the great thing about this site and individual free thought. From all of the various posts of news and rumor we can all draw our own opinions and conclusions. some may be right in line with waht is posted and others may be a bit skewed from an original post. All-in-all, we take what we read and then move on with that to research the information further for ourselves. Thank you all for giving your opinions, views, etc so that I may take what I read, generate my own conclusions, and use my own resources to further research the info generated.

Happy (ahead of time) RV Day to all!!!

[john1025]

For the record... I appreciate Enorrets efforts and personally like him very much. It doesn't mean I have to agree with him on everything. It is wise to see all sides and yes I think much is lost in translation, but who's translation? I agree with Barbann and would like to hear from Netinfo on these words re evaluation/re valuation. Makes a big difference in my book.

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

FP- may i point out that he stated that M's statement was prior, and S's statement was post-RI. Therefore the statement you refer to that M is speaking of a weak currency makes sense. Re-read the post.

I have no clue if it has or hasnt, i would have thought it would have been confirmed by now if it had. I think we would have seen a press release announcing a RI. They are a proud nation, they will be rubbing our face in it. Just my opinion.

Dgreen: Thanks buddy... I see what you are talking about from the original post. Good point! Either way, I still feel like BarbAnn -- that substituting words in to clarify your own point is not a reasonable way to draw any conclusion except the one to which you want to arrive. Stating that "Maliki is saying..." or "Shabibi is stating..." and then inserting your own words to clarify what they are saying is not at all a beneficial way to interpret their meaning. The best method is to read it and adopt the simplest and most obvious interpretation of what is being said. (Occam's razor, anyone?)

Thanks for the clarification, DGreen!

FP

[truckerron49]

It is a simple fact of translation error.. I have said this since I first came on board here.. It doesn't matter most of the time whether it was in English when you heard it or not.. It was not spoken in our native tongue in the first place.. Even if Maliki himself said it, He was still translating in his mind.. Please stop trying to put a twist on everything. Enjoy the camaraderie of others as we wait for whatever is coming our way.. Thanks for all that everyone does in the interest of all, but no bashing, please.....

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

I'm not sure why there is a big hang up about the translation of this article. It was written in English by a news outlet that specializes in writing news about the Middle East and dispatching this news throughout the world. This is a professional news organization, making a business out of providing news and information about the Middle East. Check out their info in Post #6 from this thread if you haven't seen it yet.

Netinfo could perhaps find the same article written in Arabic and compare the two. I personally don't question the validity of the article, but it seems to be on others' minds. NI: You should never have come out with your special insights and aptitude. Now you will be hounded for free translation services from now until the RV/RI/LOP! (Which could be anywhere from 24 hours to five more years worth of service, bro!)

FP

[Barbann]

It is a simple fact of translation error.. I have said this since I first came on board here.. It doesn't matter most of the time whether it was in English when you heard it or not.. It was not spoken in our native tongue in the first place.. Even if Maliki himself said it, He was still translating in his mind.. Please stop trying to put a twist on everything. Enjoy the camaraderie of others as we wait for whatever is coming our way.. Thanks for all that everyone does in the interest of all, but no bashing, please.....

I think you hit the nail on the head! The same words in another language have different meanings then they do in English. They also have different interpretations within the context of a sentence. I do not think that anyone other than Netinfo can accurately translate these articles or interpret them unless you speak, write and understand the Arabic language. We have seen what a mess Google makes out of them, imagine what a human being can do with an ulterior motive slant of " I want the rv" goin on inside of their heads. LOL

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

I think you hit the nail on the head! The same words in another language have different meanings then they do in English. They also have different interpretations within the context of a sentence. I do not think that anyone other than Netinfo can accurately translate these articles or interpret them unless you speak, write and understand the Arabic language. We have seen what a mess Google makes out of them, imagine what a human being can do with an ulterior motive slant of " I want the rv" goin on inside of their heads. LOL

But BarbAnn, it wasn't Google Translator or anyone with RV on the mind who did the translation. The news service itself conducted the translation, and this is their primary business, providing news to companies such as Deutche Bank (SP?) American Express, The World Bank, and many others. Just reading the 'about us' page from Zawya and observing their grasp of the English language, coupled with the fact that they specialize in providing news of the Middle East to English speakers (and probably other languages as well) tells me that they have all the credentials needed to be trusted for an accurate translation.

Now, I am totally with you on articles that are written in broken English, which shows that it was run through an online translator and brings the text into more question. I get that feeling too, and totally understand your point in general.

FP

[Barbann]

But BarbAnn, it wasn't Google Translator or anyone with RV on the mind who did the translation. The news service itself conducted the translation, and this is their primary business, providing news to companies such as Deutche Bank (SP?) American Express, The World Bank, and many others. Just reading the 'about us' page from Zawya and observing their grasp of the English language, coupled with the fact that they specialize in providing news of the Middle East to English speakers (and probably other languages as well) tells me that they have all the credentials needed to be trusted for an accurate translation.

Now, I am totally with you on articles that are written in broken English, which shows that it was run through an online translator and brings the text into more question. I get that feeling too, and totally understand your point in general.

FP

Of course you are absolutley correct in this instance.

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

FP- may i point out that he stated that M's statement was prior, and S's statement was post-RI. Therefore the statement you refer to that M is speaking of a weak currency makes sense. Re-read the post.

I have no clue if it has or hasnt, i would have thought it would have been confirmed by now if it had. I think we would have seen a press release announcing a RI. They are a proud nation, they will be rubbing our face in it. Just my opinion.

Kudos to Steven527 who pointed out that some pertinent info was missing from Enorrste's evaluation. Even though he says that Shabibi's info is post-RI, the actual news story says 1,170 Iraqi dinars per dollar right in the article!

Here is a link to Steven's post (good catch, my man)!

Here is a link to the original news story!

FP

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

Barbann, thanks for your link to this story. Very informative and, I agree, much more in line with the news stories that have been coming out recently. By the way, I think I misunderstood your point about the translations. I didn't know you were making a general point; I thought you were talking about this particular news story. Apologies!

This one is a doozie though! Well worth the read. Thanks again!

FP

[Barbann]

Barbann, thanks for your link to this story. Very informative and, I agree, much more in line with the news stories that have been coming out recently. By the way, I think I misunderstood your point about the translations. I didn't know you were making a general point; I thought you were talking about this particular news story. Apologies!

This one is a doozie though! Well worth the read. Thanks again!

FP

No apology necessary as your point was very valid in relation to the post. I am very concerned in light of the last three articles that the managed float is the key here. In my opinion, their concern is primarily about controlling inflation as the value of the dinar begins to rise, so they are bent on managing it. They are seeking a "stable currency" so that the economic recovery is successful and not fraught with a run away inflation.

Unfortunately , what this means to me is that there will be no sudden rv at significant numbers. Indeed, the rate we are all hoping for may very well be years away. They are going to increase the Iraqi citizens standard of living by assigning them shares of oil rights as I understand it and those are non-transferable. As the price of oil rises so do their proceeds. They will not need the currency to rv at all. They will reap the benefits of Iraqs natural resources without affecting the need for a rate change in the currency at all.

The aside note here is that they were taking about the 3 zero removel by the end of 2010. If they do that in conjunction with the Managed float, we may still make a profit, just not anywhere near what we had anticipated. JMO

[dirt diggler]

I actually enjoy reading both opinions - the knowledge of Fi3ry and E are both impressive...without choosing one side or the other - I don't think they are battling against each other - but educating some of the members on the site to, maybe just maybe, think about what they are actually reading.

I thank both Men and look forward to the continuous threads....

I agree as well. Both bring knowledge and analyst that is most enjoyable and appreciated.

I would like to see these two have a daily thread where only the two of them post on and comment on their opinions.

[wilecoyote]

I think you hit the nail on the head! The same words in another language have different meanings then they do in English. They also have different interpretations within the context of a sentence. I do not think that anyone other than Netinfo can accurately translate these articles or interpret them unless you speak, write and understand the Arabic language. We have seen what a mess Google makes out of them, imagine what a human being can do with an ulterior motive slant of " I want the rv" goin on inside of their heads. LOL

I agree, I know this first hand -->"The same words in another language have different meanings then they do in English. They also have different interpretations within the context of a sentence."

We have seen many examples of that very thing these past few months.

[Fi3ry_Ph03n1x]

No apology necessary as your point was very valid in relation to the post. I am very concerned in light of the last three articles that the managed float is the key here. In my opinion, their concern is primarily about controlling inflation as the value of the dinar begins to rise, so they are bent on managing it. They are seeking a "stable currency" so that the economic recovery is successful and not fraught with a run away inflation.

Unfortunately , what this means to me is that there will be no sudden rv at significant numbers. Indeed, the rate we are all hoping for may very well be years away. They are going to increase the Iraqi citizens standard of living by assigning them shares of oil rights as I understand it and those are non-transferable. As the price of oil rises so do their proceeds. They will not need the currency to rv at all. They will reap the benefits of Iraqs natural resources without affecting the need for a rate change in the currency at all.

The aside note here is that they were taking about the 3 zero removel by the end of 2010. If they do that in conjunction with the Managed float, we may still make a profit, just not anywhere near what we had anticipated. JMO

Interesting point you make Barbann. In Alaska, all residents get a pay check once per year from revenues generated from oil production. It's usually $1,500 to $2000 per year. Just imagine what an average Iraqi would get from the third largest oil producing nation in the world!

FP