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What will really trigger RV?


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First off, I have been invested for about 18 months and I admit that I don't have a total understanding of the nuts and bolts of the Iraq nation building thing but I have theory as to what will really trigger RV. We have just seen Iraq up oil production to the tune of billions per month. Couple that with the auctions and buying back mucho Dinar it seems as the gurus' are saying that it is about time to RV. My theory is that Iraq will not RV until they are not able to acquire vast amounts of Dinar at auction. In other words they have called in all the Dinar that they can get. That's when we see RV. I am guessing May of this year.

Go easy on me you smart folks I am an amateur. How about it am I looking at the right stuff or am I off base?

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First off, I have been invested for about 18 months and I admit that I don't have a total understanding of the nuts and bolts of the Iraq nation building thing but I have theory as to what will really trigger RV. We have just seen Iraq up oil production to the tune of billions per month. Couple that with the auctions and buying back mucho Dinar it seems as the gurus' are saying that it is about time to RV. My theory is that Iraq will not RV until they are not able to acquire vast amounts of Dinar at auction. In other words they have called in all the Dinar that they can get. That's when we see RV. I am guessing May of this year.

Go easy on me you smart folks I am an amateur. How about it am I looking at the right stuff or am I off base?

Why not post this on the general forums SDB? I think you'll find that's where the folk that have done their, well, 'homework' are...

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Why not post this on the general forums SDB? I think you'll find that's where the folk that have done their, well, 'homework' are...

Not sure I'd agree with that assessment of the peeps in the General Forums.

I believe that if folks have done their homework, they'd be in VIP!!

Perhaps you may have meant to say;

Posting in the general forms may get you more responses!

With that, I'll put a response together for SDB Mike from the homework I've done.

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Good one, Wing, but you ABSOLUTELY have to repost your answer in the general forums. There are quite a few desperately poor people who are holding on by their fingernails so can't afford VIP, but who would nevertheless be much reassured by and really appreciate your hypothesis.

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Good one, Wing, but you ABSOLUTELY have to repost your answer in the general forums. There are quite a few desperately poor people who are holding on by their fingernails so can't afford VIP, but who would nevertheless be much reassured by and really appreciate your hypothesis.

Thank you wingnut. That was the best read, and I have to agree.. post this where everyone can enjoy appreciate it. To good not to share.

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I believe that some type of promotion is overdue. Perhaps, CaptainWingnut should be promoted to GeneralWingnut. I have been lurking at DV for a few months, and I just recently joined the VIP. This is the best explanation that I have seen on any board. I thoroughly enjoy Adam M's discussions and posts -- this discussion is worthy of comparison. Perhaps this reply should be converted to an original post and pinned at the top.

Excellent job and thank you for the effort.

Martin

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SDB Mike,

Here's my :twocents: Opinion.

It will be long however, in the form of Timelines, History

and of course my Educated Opinion on them all.

First,

I think you're looking at the right stuff and totally On Base,,,

And if they (Iraq) continue to make headway like they're doing

it just may be SOONER than you guess...

As far as my research, knowledge, intel, timelines,

conclusions and intuition goes

I believe the "Gun" is already loaded and cocked,

and with that I also believe that

Shabs could really Pull the Trigger at any time. :eyebrows:

However,

He and the other powers to be are wise men

and very in tune with the limitations

and outcomes of what these actions could, and will do.

I believe their primary concern (I would put it at about 98%)

is and will be all about what the RV actions will do

TO, and FOR Iraq,

while their secondary concern (the remaining 2%) will be

what the RV actions will do, for and to, the rest of the world. :excl:

Okay, so my percentages may be slightly off, but in the end I'll bet I'm close.

As with a gun that is loaded and cocked,

Pulling the trigger,

can happen at anytime

but pulling the trigger on any whim

or at any time is not always the best or SAFEST action.

No different than holding a loaded and cocked gun in your house.

You probably wouldn't pull the trigger

in your house,

simply because you could!

That would just NOT be a smart thing to do!

I mean pull the trigger just because you could.

Right?

Even though you have it loaded and ready to go

you would wait for the Right Time and the Right Place.

Iraq knows that the world is watching, (and panting and drooling)

for them to pull the trigger,

and I'll bet Shabs has his finger on that trigger 99% of the time.

But he's got to patiently wait for the right time to present its self.

Yes, they know that the rest of the world is holding IQD.

That fact came totally by Iraq's design

by selling it at auction to the world.

This was their way of making enough money

to keep the lights on (so to speak).

They also knew (and know) that the auctions would not work

if EVERYONE buying IQD

did not see a Future Value in it.

That's the old; What's In It For Me, idiom.

The IQD auctions work, not because people around the world

want the notes for a colorful substitute for wall paper,

they want them because of their perceived future value.

Everything we purchase, currency or commodity is done for it's

value, current or future.

The value in IQD is future OIL.

I believe from all that they do and say,

that they KNOW,

that the rest of the IQD holding world

is WAITING on them to make it more valuable than it was at auction.

(Auctions have a kind of "Implied" contract for future value and

only work when the buying party sees greater immediate

or future value in the item over what is paid for it.)

Do they LIKE the fact that the rest of the world holding IRQ is waiting on them like vultures circling?

NO!

It's painfully obvious that they don't want to OWE anyone, any more than

they absolutely have to,

but they also know that they created this monster by their auctions,

and even though they did it to keep the lights on

they know they will have to follow through with it and give that future value

or WAR will come right back to their doorstep

as too many governments, let alone individuals,

have put serious money into their infrastructure via IQD purchases at auction.

Can they do anything about the IQD held around the world?

Yes, but their options are very limited.

Can they do anything about the IQD held in Iraq?

ABSOLUTELY!

Anything they want or need

and we're seeing this right now more than ever.

I'll cover this more in a minute.

Too many posts here and elsewhere

are from people who so badly want

or need the RV to save them

from their financial misery

and because of that misery (or greed or desire)

they begin to look at the RV through the lenses of their own needs

and not what is actually happening

or needed from those who will actually do it.

This myopic view tends to lead one astray

down wishful paths of speculative dreaming.

We have a saying;

"Boots on Soil" or in other words;

BEING THERE!

If we first put our boots (in this case our minds)

on soil, in Iraq

and then take our speculation forward,

many times we have a totally different paradigm of the events.

It's the difference from looking OUT versus looking IN

and knowing the difference between the two.

Myopic view points come from people looking IN while

trying to convince themselves and others

that they are looking OUT!! :blush:

Please don't take me to say or think I'm an authority

or have any special info here that no one else has or can get.

I just study what I can and apply it with as much prudence as possible

to make my opinions!

We know that there are multiple reasons for Iraq NOT to RV (albeit they get fewer day by day)

and we myopically (and logically) have multiple reason for them TO RV if not immediately.

They have been on this path the entire time and when it is finally done,

we will all look back and probably say;

"Yup, probably couldn't have happened any other way for the circumstances."

Here is a link where they officially announced their intentions

to Re-Denominate their currency with a general date of occurrence (within one year).

The article was back on Feb 6, 2010

Iraq Planning Currency Redenomiination

Note in the article that they had INTENDED for this to only take a year

from the time of the press release

AND

Note that they fully expected to have TWO currencies on the street

simultaneously...

The timeline didn't work for political and occupational reasons, but the idea was sound.

I'll address this a little later.

It's been almost two years now and we've seen many positive steps completing this

but they didn't make that timeline either

as we've also seen set back after set back.

I'll also cover these in a minute

The question always pops up;

Do they have to, or

is it a MUST, that they be OUT of Chapter VII before they RV their currency?

To my knowledge, the answer is NO.

Sovereign countries have the right to do what they want with their currency.

Would it BENEFIT them to RV while in Chapter VII?

Again I believe NO is the answer.

This entire EVENT must be done with minimal

negative impact to the country of Iraq.

So being out of Chapter VII is probably desirable prior to RV as well as having

everyone "In Country" on the same page legally... i.e., Erbil and HCL laws.

OKAY,

Here's how I see the timeline.

1. HISTORY: Iraq needs income and because their GDP (oil production)

is so low after Saddam,

Iraq begins to sell IQD to the world as a primary income commodity.

Commodities are sold, auctioned and traded for two reasons,

intrinsic or future value

and we all know as I said before, that the world

is not buying dinar for its intrinsic (wall paper) value.

2. Iraq does NOT want to, and should NOT RV their currency while

massive triple zero notes are "In Country"

as this could easily cause civil war to break out,

or inadvertently finance terrorism,

not to mention their citizens becoming too rich too fast to even care

about working and building up their country,

plus about 30 more negative reasons.

If Iraq wants to be like Qatar they can certainly get there, but they will need

years of stability first, riches for the people second.

If they make the people rich first, they will not be stable.

If you don't know about Qatar a neighbor to the south of Iraq

you should study it. Everything there is FREE

to Qataris. EVERYTHING!

All based on their crazy rich Natural Gas reserves.

So how do they do that?

They have to get their people to GIVE UP their triple zero IQD notes willingly

and quickly, and preferably BEFORE they pull the trigger on the RV.

But HOW?

Originally I believed they were going to RV "In Country"

and use TWO currencies as noted in the news.

They would have put a higher Value

on the the new LOWER denominations,

and kept the current value on the higher denominations (basically keeping

the same value for their monetary system but with two different currencies).

They would allow both currencies to co-mingle on the streets and

quietly and systematically remove the triple zero notes.

The banking system would then just retire the higher notes as they came through

in exchange for smaller notes

just like all banking systems retire worn out currency.

HOWEVER,

in-fighting, and excessive political delays in passing laws

that should be in place to protect

this exchange have eaten up much of the time allotted

and now Iraq is coming down to the wire and seriously

needing value to their currency to continue.

Not to mention that if they took that "In Country" route, they might

just have all of the other nations VERY upset with them because it

would look as if Iraq was snubbing the world and going back

on their "Implied Contract for Value" from the auctions,

and Iraq can NOT afford to have the WORLD mad at them right now.

TODAY

The World and mainly the U.S. wants to be repaid for 10 years of giving and giving.

Plus,

Iraq is now Sovereign,

and every foreign company doing business with Iraq

who are there to help them build their infrastructure back

and allow them to come out of this on top

wants to be paid with something

other than

Pretty WALL PAPER!!

The problem is that it is seriously taking TOO long.

Currency auctions without backing up your currency with higher

value, (in this case oil) have a tendency to drive inflation UP

And backing up or strengthening the currency is... WAIT FOR IT....

The TRIGGER you're looking for to for the RV.

Inflation is a fickle thing.

Below 10% is typically controllable by the Central Bank and Government

but as it approaches 10% it will start to grow exponentially.

And that becomes a nightmare that is quickly out of your control.

Iraq can not afford out of control inflation because it will destroy them

faster than a civil war.

Shabs knows this

and the world has seen Iraq teetering on this edge for a while now.

That's why I believe he has his finger on that TRIGGER 99% of the time

because as soon as he can RV their currency

it will KILL inflation.

THEN IT HAPPENED...

Dr. Shabs had an idea.

He saw something happening in the world that could get them back on track

and in control,,, FAST.

The European EVENT.

In October-November 2011 the European economic melt down started a phenomenon.

The phenomenon was this:

European's out of their fear of the Euro failing

were trading Euro's for USD on a massive scale

so much so that the USD started to climb in value around the world just from demand.

Note: There are posts all over during this time frame with people wondering why the change in dinar value.

It was only because the US Dollar was getting slightly stronger because of world demand that changed

the value against the dinar... CBI had done nothing to change its value.

So,

Shabs has his number one "mini me" Saleh, "Leak" word

that the IQD was weakening against the USD

Just a LEAK.

WAS IT TRUE?

Yes, but only half so.

As I said, the IQD was truly weakening against the dollar

but because of European events,

not because of the Iraqi events.

Now if you were "Boots on Soil" in Iraq at that time,

you would have noticed something else happening.

You would have noticed that there were less and less

US DOLLARS in circulation.

Combine THAT with Saleh's "Leak" and it

might just PANIC you into thinking that

your country's monetary value was AGAIN falling off the edge of the world.

WHAT'S THE GOAL?

The ULTIMATE Goal NECESSARY to make the RV possible

with the least injury to Iraq,

would be to get the Iraqi people to Voluntarily and Quickly,

TURN IN their Triple Zero Notes!!! :woot:

TRUTH;

The real reason for less USD on the streets (in the market place)

was because all of the US troops had just left

and no more NEW USD was coming into the market place on paydays!! :eek:

You may sneer and ask;

How could they do this and get away with it? :confused:

They can do this very easily because communication

in Iraq is still not up to speed for the common people.

They only have an hour or two (at best) of electricity each day

and the only other news they have is the GAZETTE (the Governments Newspaper) and word of mouth!!

Okay, so the SCARE tactic worked. :(

Trillions of dinar has poured into Iraqi banks for almost 2 months now due to the panic,

Iraqi citizens RAN to the banks trading IQD for USD

because they were feeling like their own countries money

was AGAIN loosing value and the True VALUE was in the US Dollar.

So here's where we come to your observation SDB MIKE

I believe you're right, that Shabs will wait until there is a MINIMAL amount of

dinar in country,

BUT

I believe that day is closer than you think.

The problem that I have posed in our think tank for a LONG time is this:

If all you have on the streets of Iraq is triple zero notes

and you RV the notes to HIGHER value,

HOW DO YOU MAKE CHANGE without lower denominations??

You've got to get the lower denom's onto the street,

OR

Have an alternate way to make change!

Shab's figured out how to do this in

THREE EASY STEPS

And it's happening RIGHT NOW! :hug:

1. Get the people to turn in their IQD for USD ---DONE, in the history books

2. Restore confidence in the IQD

__a. Raise the value of the IQD against the USD slightly ---DONE... HAPPENED LAST WEEK 1170 to 1166

__b. Press release that "All is Well" ---HAPPENED TODAY CBI Restores Confidence in IQD

3. Revalue the currency to Match the USD already on the streets,

Now they can release the lower IQD denominations (that match the currency already on the streets)

and retire the USD as it comes into the banks replacing it with IQD of equal value.

This is the Magical Pixie Dust for the Iraqi government and CBI.

1. Iraqi People get rid of their 000 notes VOLUNTARILY and FAST

2. Iraqi People use USD for their TEMPORARY monetary system and now have the ability to make change.

3. CBI can easily control how fast the new currency goes out to the street without stressing the country or economy.

HOW DOES THE CBI CONTROL IT?

If the CBI wants the exchange of USD for IQD to occur faster, all they have to do is put

more confidence in the IQD versus the USD... (i.e., revalue it again just slightly higher 1.16 USD to 1 IQD)

That will trigger another massive "fear of loss" exchange event

and would ensue and USD would fly off the street for IQD.

Another Teaser Note:

1.17 to 1 is the just the opposite of current CBI exchange rate of 1 to 1166 (just move the decimal points to 1.166!!)

and THIS amount fits PERFECTLY with their wants and projected budget needs.

As I said earlier, the Iraqi Government and CBI knows the rest of the world is watching

and they do NOT want to owe anyone any more

than they possibly have to,

so they can NOT afford to send up a

signal flare saying WE'RE ABOUT TO RV...

because that would be a

BUY, BUY, BUY signal...

which would crush them.

Right now if they change the auction rate too much they will send up the

RV flares and cause a world buying spree, but with USD already on the streets

the RV can come with a wave of the wand or Pull of the TRIGGER!

While this event was not designed

for the rest of the world,

it still works GREAT for EVERYONE.

I believe that I saw an article (perhaps someone can find it and post it)

that stated that they already

have LOWER denom's printed and ready to go....

So where are they keeping them?

They're probably in secure CBI warehouses.... NOT in the BANKS.

If they were to start moving the lower denoms to the banks

THAT folks would be a signal worth acting on...

But if the Iraqi citizens are using USD and can already MAKE CHANGE

for sales in the market place,

The CBI can now do the RV without any fanfare or notice

and afterward, move their lower denom's to the banks unencumbered.

Okay, we're finally seeing this ALL come to fruition.

Just a week ago we saw the CBI change their artificial float rate from 1170 to 1166

which was the first step in reassuring the Iraqi people that their IQD is getting stronger.

Which by the way, the Iraqi people no longer have in great quantity.

This should already be wetting their appetite for their IQD again.

(This action is like taking your foot off the gas pedal as you approach the exit coming off the freeway/turnpike)

and TODAY Shabibi took action to slow it down even more...

CBI seeks to restore confidence in the local currency against the dollar

(This is totally akin to applying pressure to the BRAKE to slow the vehicle down as you prepare to make

the BIG TURN to a new direction as you get off the speedway.)

If I were looking for a SIGN

that the CBI was believing that they were seeing

the LAST of the Triple Zero notes

trickling in from "In Country",

THIS WOULD BE IT.

With this article, the CBI now wants the Iraqi citizens to Have Faith

in their IQD...OVER THE US DOLLAR... AGAIN!

The people are now using USD and can make change.

Here you go,

They can now RV and have TWO currencies on the street

at the same time as I showed you above.

All the government needs to do now is get the

Iraqi people to exchange their USD for IQD

And the way they do that is to RV...

Then they can swap out the USD for IQD at their own pace,

without panicking the world into massive

buying of dinar and owing even more.

So,

the next step in my humble opinion is the RV YEA!!!

and simultaneous release of lower the denominations.

This of course will come just as soon as they have the final

security and laws in place to protect the event.

We're seeing all of the positive movement from Iraq to

finalize many laws and budgets this week,

and it would appear that they have just about dotted

all of their 'i's" and crossed all of their "T's"

Go RV. :wave:

Agreed! Go RV.

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Good one, Wing, but you ABSOLUTELY have to repost your answer in the general forums. There are quite a few desperately poor people who are holding on by their fingernails so can't afford VIP, but who would nevertheless be much reassured by and really appreciate your hypothesis.

Okay,

If you seriously believe that this article can help even one more person, :bow:

I'll post it in the General Opinion Forum.

We'll see what the response is... :blink:

CW

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Okay,

If you seriously believe that this article can help even one more person, :bow:

I'll post it in the General Opinion Forum.

We'll see what the response is... :blink:

CW

Yes, it will help MANY folks out there but it can be a scary place at times :unsure: . Thank you for putting your opinion together and sharing. Great read! You're post have been great for day one, thank you again!

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