CBI Update

[Darin]

Excellent post Darin! This statement says it all: "The problem with that the U.S. started printing money to boost the economy, bail out big corporations, and so forth.

By selling bonds, printing money, and so forth, our money supply got expanded decreasing its value." This is what all these freaking liberals and Obama supporters (one in the same) dont get. They believe the BS about the greedy & evil Oil companies and corporations in general. Its amazing how ignorant people are to the facts.

Lets expand further on the impact of crude and what it costs for us to pay for it...

When we see that gas is going up, we think how it impacts our daily commutes... But, it goes beyond that..

It now costs more to heat your home.....

It now costs businesses more because of transportation costs...

The after-effects of this, is we are basically holding less disposable income.

If we lose 5% of our disposable income to paying higher prices on fuel, those businesses lose out on that opportunity.

People tighten their belts, and reduce their spending...

They purchase cheaper items (Equate instead of Colgate, for example)

Knock-off items, and so forth.

The best thing for gas prices to do is stabilize. The best thing for the banks to do is try not & print more money.

If crude goes down, prices will drop... Nothing wrong with that, as long as we don't see any yo-yo effects.

JMO.

[sxsess]

Lets expand further on the impact of crude and what it costs for us to pay for it...

When we see that gas is going up, we think how it impacts our daily commutes... But, it goes beyond that..

It now costs more to heat your home.....

It now costs businesses more because of transportation costs...

The after-effects of this, is we are basically holding less disposable income.

If we lose 5% of our disposable income to paying higher prices on fuel, those businesses lose out on that opportunity.

People tighten their belts, and reduce their spending...

They purchase cheaper items (Equate instead of Colgate, for example)

Knock-off items, and so forth.

The best thing for gas prices to do is stabilize. The best thing for the banks to do is try not & print more money.

If crude goes down, prices will drop... Nothing wrong with that, as long as we don't see any yo-yo effects.

JMO.

The problem with money printing (quantitative easing) lies with the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernake, and Obama. I know you know this. If this cant be stopped soon, we are doomed.

[zigmeister]

The conspiracy theorist part of my brain is seeing some events unfold...

Here is a big what if!

What if! the U.S. sent USD to the CBI to distribute to locals and neighboring regions. It is no secret that some citizens of iran are not happy with their government. What if! They're trying to use an economic warfare type tool to crash their economy to a certain degree with the USD being the weapon? What if! They're trying to create revolt to spread democracy? What if! They're attempting to do this purely for the idea that neighboring regions hold IQD and they're trying to reduce their holdings as MUCH as possible.

Look at how this would simply play out.

Iran revolts, overthrows govt (Egypt style), and a new govt is set in place. Iraq helps them form a democracy and they strengthen trade & relations.

IQD is out of the neighboring regions reducing liabilities to the CBI

Now, all IQD is held by speculators & those locally who continue to use it in domestic market.

Money supply reduced, neighboring nation threat reduced, democracy spread to neighboring regions, giving Iraq the head-start economy wise which leads them to being the prominent nation of that region.

End results, heightened demand for IQD which pushes or remains the value as it is traded locally for goods...

Now, with better ties w/ a more democratic Iran, they'll do better in terms of oil deals & trading in USD.

US wins by remaining crude sales on the market with US. Another country to buy bonds via USD, etc.

Just thinking out loud.. I accept criticism

I think that is exactly what they are doing. It is not far fetched or a hard stretch to come to that conclusion. I read or someone made a statement on the boards the US has been shipping dollars over to Iraq. It really is quite clever when you think of it, they are taking dinars out of the neighborhood, flooding dollars back into the neighborhood, Iran and Syrias currencies are falling to the basement.

It would not surprise me they are pushing for an Egypt like bringing down the governments. And push for a government, probably already groomed and ready to open the doors to a democracy.

I like your thoughts of Iraq playing a role in helping Iran and Syria build a new democracy.

[wpsmit]

So. Humans are to conclude. This is the New IMF programmed Rate. The CBI is testing electronic systems. The IMF was seeking reaction to a subtle rate change. We continue to see increases randomly. Pick one. Or More. Or None.

Guru johnnywg's "Algorithm" is slowly starting to churn. It just took 4 weeks for it to get started! :D

[DRV1804]

I haven't been this excited about a thread in a long time! I have a great feeling about this movement...GO RV BABY!!

[lotsofdinar]

I think you are just overthinking this. The CBI is doing what they are supposed to be doing. Buying and selling currency to try to keep their exchange rate stable. And yes, part of that is zigging when the USD zags.

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

Guru johnnywg's "Algorithm" is slowly starting to churn. It just took 4 weeks for it to get started! :D

***///

(... he shoulda used BOTH HANDS...!)

[zigmeister]

Here comes that vuja de feeling again!

sta·ble 1 (stbl)

adj. sta·bler, sta·blest

1.

a. Resistant to change of position or condition; not easily moved or disturbed: a house built on stable ground; a stable platform.

b. Not subject to sudden or extreme change or fluctuation: a stable economy; a stable currency.

c. Maintaining equilibrium; self-restoring: a stable aircraft.

2. Enduring or permanent: a stable peace.

3.a. Consistently dependable; steadfast of purpose.; b. Not subject to mental illness or irrationality: a stable personality.

4. Physics Having no known mode of decay; indefinitely long-lived. Used of atomic particles.

5. Chemistry Not easily decomposed or otherwise modified chemically.

[Middle English, from Old French estable, from Latin stabilis; see st- in Indo-European roots.]

stable·ness n.

stably adv.

For three years, the exchange rate has been at 1170. So, think again.

Exactly for three years it has been 1170, hopefully the IMF has let go and this isn't going to be stuck on 1164 for another three. One thing for sure it was manipulated hopefully they cut it lose.

[Mazzz27]

i heard its 1164 now... just hear say though...dont quote me!

[Darin]

I think that is exactly what they are doing. It is not far fetched or a hard stretch to come to that conclusion. I read or someone made a statement on the boards the US has been shipping dollars over to Iraq. It really is quite clever when you think of it, they are taking dinars out of the neighborhood, flooding dollars back into the neighborhood, Iran and Syrias currencies are falling to the basement.

It would not surprise me they are pushing for an Egypt like bringing down the governments. And push for a government, probably already groomed and ready to open the doors to a democracy.

I like your thoughts of Iraq playing a role in helping Iran and Syria build a new democracy.

Glad to know I'm not the only one who has played this out in their own head.

Them helping out with a new democracy actually is related to how the GOI offered Egypt to help them write their own constitution. I could very well see them doing the same for Iran or Syria if there were indeed the inevitable conclusion for those said countries.

I've heard about USD being shipped over there..

I've also read & heard about USD being in demand by the neighboring countries..

I also know that the CB of Iran is not happy about the presence of USD because of the impact it has on the economy.

I also recall reading how Iran has very little USD in their reserves & have publicly stated they want nothing to do with the USD.

Notice how they're conveniently under sanctions? Their domestic currency has a crazy low value as well.. And they're only somewhat friends are Russia & China.

But.. China is already becoming better friends w/ iraq... and may pull out completley.

Should be interesting to see this play out.

[sxsess]

The only thing we don't need is another war. I'm not the proverbial peacenik, but some people simply never tire of perpetual war.

Sanssouci, what is your view on Iran and their fanatical leadership? I agree, the last thing we need is war. But if these additional sanctions against Iraq fail, as they always have in the past, dont you think we could do tactical strikes on their nuclear facilities. especially with Iran's comments on wiping Israel off the map.

[keepmwlknfny]

I don't think they're "officially" going to tell anyone. It would signal a gradual RV.

Not necessarily put it on all the front page news papers, but maybe there will be some sort of IMF documentation supporting this theory stating that the program rate has been removed.....

And I wonder if they are buying up USD and what kind of affect that could play in this....

[keepmwlknfny]

And you don't think all bets would be off in that scenario?

What do you mean by all bets are off?

[bamagirl]

Not necessarily put it on all the front page news papers, but maybe there will be some sort of IMF documentation supporting this theory stating that the program rate has been removed.....

And I wonder if they are buying up USD and what kind of affect that could play in this....

Keep I'm wondering what your take is on this rate change...do you think they would have bothered moving it a fraction of a penny if their goal is RD before RV...I don't know if this makes sense but I'd love your thoughts.

[sxsess]

Sanssouci, whether you like it or not, Israel is our most important alley over there. And I agree with anything Israel says about the Palestians. They are nothing but cowards lobbing rockets into innocent Israeli citizens. Obviously you must be a liberal to be on the side of people that despise the US & Israel. Once we get rid of Obama, I pray that we can undo the damage that he as caused between our countries.

[Darin]

The only thing we don't need is another war. I'm not the proverbial peacenik, but some people simply never tire of perpetual war.

Would it really be the U.S.'s war? They may just find the right tools & tactics to be the catalyst of an overthrow, coup, or civil war in that country.

The rest would just eventually unfold & the U.S. would come in as a savior and maybe help clean up, offer aid, etc. etc.

A new government would be formed while the U.S. creates a stronger relationship by offering to help & get their sanctions removed (Obviously a couple year process).

They would than revert back to exporting & having the sale of their crude exports sold in USD. Strengthening the USD & maybe even pushing to expand on production from that region.

Suddenly, what was once a threat to the GOI & CBI may soon be a rather reasonable ally for them & the U.S.

New deals, investment opportunities, & potentially much more would help the global economy.

Just a theory.... As I would also argue that any monarchy type of government has a foreseeable expiration date within said country.

This would also help create a better well-rounded world & way of living (especially in that region..)

Improved standard of living technically should lead to less terrorism.

[hi-five]

Look at how this would simply play out.

Iran revolts, overthrows govt (Egypt style), and a new govt is set in place. Iraq helps them form a democracy and they strengthen trade & relations.

Read more:

Darin - - I love the thought of Iraq helping Iran form a democracy. I seriously do. But, the thought of Allawi and Maliki in Iran as the poster children for forming democracies in the ME - - cracks me up!

That's a great idea for a sit-com!

[sxsess]

Ally. Do you really think so? Who told you that? Sean Hannity?

Well, that's interesting, because they say this about all non-Jews. But, to each his own...

They are people who have a right to a homeland.

The Palestinians do not despise us. They despise what "we" do, or rather what "our" government does in our name.

Damage, between the US and Israel? It has been way too cozy from the start.

Sanssouci, obviously we have completely different views and beliefs on these issues. No I dont even like Sean Hannity...Hes rather annoying to me. I do like Mark Lavine & Micheal Savage, as if you cared. But its OK to have your own views. I respect others and I dont get upset if someones opinions or beliefs or different than mine. All I can say to you is that I think you are on the wrong side here. But I dont want to get into arguements that end up in hostility.

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

Sanssouci, obviously we have completely different views and beliefs on these issues. No I dont even like Sean Hannity...Hes rather annoying to me. I do like Mark Lavine & Micheal Savage, as if you cared. But its OK to have your own views. I respect others and I dont get upset if someones opinions or beliefs or different than mine. All I can say to you is that I think you are on the wrong side here. But I dont want to get into arguements that end up in hostility.

***///

I'm w/ ya on this one, SXSESS. We've been warned about 'engaging' w/ this ilk.

We all know where it always leads. Counter-productive -- Like pokin' at an angry honey badger with a stick!

[sxsess]

Neither do I, but if you knew anything about authentic Judaism, you would know that you harbor some tragic misconceptions. And, being that they are Judaics, both Mark Levin (The Great One? What has he done that is really so great? I'd like to know.) and Michael "Savage" (real name: Michael Wiener) are staunch gatekeepers for Judaism among other things.

I am not a hater. I am a liberator.

Point taken. Your right I dont know about Judaism and with all due respect dont care. I just want this country to get back to the core values we once had. I feel like I live in a country in extreme decline right now and I'm very worried about this. I am not a hater either.

[sxsess]

Thanks Sarge. Good luck to you.

[FishMan1969]

Just a point.....

Comparing Adams info presented in chat, with the auction/market rate in 2009 ( I also included the most recent change which was not today but Tuesday, Jan17, 2012), and the UN operational rate tables.

NONE are consistent.

Just a point that I noticed. None of the dates correspond correctly for the Auction rate changes.

see attached screen shot for a comparison.

[keepmwlknfny]

Keep I'm wondering what your take is on this rate change...do you think they would have bothered moving it a fraction of a penny if their goal is RD before RV...I don't know if this makes sense but I'd love your thoughts.

Well two things come to mind.....the CBI could be bracing themselves for further increases in the auctions due to Irans sanctions...they are already worried about it depleting their reserves because of the huge amounts being sold now so they very well could be stockpiling USD for a surplus and this could be affecting the exchange rate, making the dinar stronger....

As far as your second question, there is always a possibility of them bringing the dinar to an even 1000 from 1170 to make the dinar exactly on par with the USD after they would delete the zeros.....

There are probly a few other scenarios that could be going on here.....

[bamagirl]

Thanks for responding Keep...I was sure hoping you would say you had changed your mind about there being a LOp possibility, LOL!

Edited January 18, 2012 by bamagirl

[keepmwlknfny]

Thanks for responding Keep...I was sure hoping you would say you had changed your mind about there being a LOp possibility, LOL!

This ride aint over till its over!!! Anything is possible!