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Found 3 results

  1. I would really appreciate some feed back from the members here on this article -- Your breakdown in layman's terms of what is stated and then your educated opinion - What does it all mean exactly and what "could" happen -- I know it is a lot to read - but how else are you going to ever know anything if you don't read??? Thanks in advance for those that are willing to read and comment -- UNEEK THE RESET HAS ALREADY BEGUN! Author : Bill Holter Published: January 19th, 2015 For several years there has been talk of a financial and economic “re set” coming, this is no longer speculation as the reset has already begun! The Swiss have suppressed the price of their currency, the franc, since late 2011. They pegged the franc versus the euro with a “floor” versus the euro at 1.20. After confirming this floor publicly on Monday, they abandoned it Thursday only to see the euro depreciate through the par level. What you saw on Thursday and Friday was the work of Mother Nature as the Swiss decided they would be better served by no longer battling her. The ramifications of this move by the Swiss are almost infinite when you consider the chain reactions they have now started. Several large FOREX firms including the largest retail firm in the U.S., FXCM, were rendered bankrupt overnight. Even Goldman Sachs and Citi admitted to being offside and sustained large losses. As of right now, we have no idea who “won” and who “lost”, nor do we know “how much?” We heard almost nothing from Swiss or European banks on Friday, “who what and how much?” will begin to surface this coming week. As I have written for years now, if the loser goes bankrupt, the winner does not get paid…thus turning the winner into a loser. This is a very big problem the markets ignored on Friday but will not be able to ignore as the dead bodies begin to surface. Think about this point very seriously, many investors (and firms) went to bed Wednesday evening with no stress at all on their portfolios (or their business), in just five minutes Thursday morning they were insolvent. Just FIVE MINUTES! We are only talking about “investments” here, how many other real businesses in the import and export area are now broke? Broke because they hold euros but need francs or they export from Switzerland or import to Europe and now their business model makes no sense? How is this even possible in just five minutes time? Another aspect to what and how the Swiss moved on Thursday is that of “central banks” themselves. Did the Swiss not know they were going to float the franc on Monday when they confirmed the peg publicly? Did they or did they not inform the IMF prior their actions? What about the BIS which is headquartered within their borders in Basel, surely they tipped them off? Christine LaGarde claimed in an interview with CNBC that she had no prior notice, really? If this is true then it shows the Swiss central bank has moved in an “every man for himself” type of action. It also shows the “united front” of central banks is not so “united” anymore! If Ms. LaGarde is not telling the truth and in fact the IMF did have prior knowledge, what would this mean? It would mean the central banks are finally losing control of the rig. It would also mean the central banks have distorted currencies, interest rates etc. so badly that once Mother Nature takes over, we can expect repeat performances all over the world and amongst all assets and currencies. How can I say this? I would simply ask if it is “normal” for two trading currencies to revalue 30% in five minutes or if it is not normal, what was the cause? We of course know, the cause was the actions of the ECB and SNB over these last three+ years. We have already speculated the Swiss made this move for one of two reasons. First, they may have decided the amount of euros necessary to purchase (and thus the amount of francs created) will go exponential this coming week when the ECB goes full on QE (printing). We also know that euros already make up more than half of their balance sheet. The other possibility is they know the Greek election is coming up, (the Greek banks are already experiencing bank runs) and they see the very real possibility of the Eurozone fracturing or even dissolving. Another possibility is maybe they just decided “their first loss is their best loss”? Maybe they have watched as the core of Europe has asked for their gold back and understand that “trust” amongst central bankers is waning? Maybe they simply decided to front run the obvious and necessary re set and do it on their own terms? It is very hard to say what exactly the motivation was, the important thing to understand is their action has started a re set in motion which will not be stopped! In plain English, the Swiss just yelled FIRE …while standing in the exit! I have several other questions but first I want to point out the obvious. Oil was cut in more than half in dollars over 6 months, could you say the price of oil was “re set”? How about copper? How about other foreign currencies? Could the huge moves in so many assets qualify as being “re set”? The collapse in oil and copper prices are black swans pointing to a rapidly slowing global economy. The Swiss removing their currency peg is another black swan event and in reaction to the ECB moving toward hyperinflating their currency. My biggest question now is this, what will happen when China allows their currency to float? The Swiss are one thing, China is whole different story! Think of the ramifications when it comes to trade? Another, maybe even more important question is what will happen when the Chinese “force” the price of gold and silver to trade freely? Let me explain this further. The Chinese know full well that gold IS money, otherwise they would not have spent the last several years buying almost every single ounce that came from the ground. They know it is artificially priced by New York and London. They can “float” gold in several manners. First, they can simply bust the COMEX and LBMA by bidding for and purchasing both their entire inventories within a 24 hour window. Another possibility would be to simply put out a “global bid” and state some price (much higher than current) they are willing to buy any and all gold, presto, COMEX and LBMA would be busted without them doing it directly! I recently wrote of a “Global Margin Call” where because oil and other assets, currencies, etc. have moved so rapidly, many derivatives traders have surely been thrown “offside”. This move by the Swiss is nothing different except it was done “officially”. Actually, the funny thing is they moved to suspend what they were “officially” (and artificially!) doing. The move by the Swiss has only made the global margin call that much bigger! The global re set which was already in the works is now publicly and officially happening before your very eyes. You can close your eyes or not believe this fact, it will not make it go away, nor will it insulate you financially from what is coming. To finish, and I plan to follow up maybe even tomorrow, the most important re set will be that of gold and silver prices. I say “most important” because these are the only “tools” available to you as an individual to protect your wealth. If the Swiss franc and the euro can change in value by 30% within five minutes, what do you think the revaluation of gold and silver will be when the 100 ounces of “paper metal” come looking for the real thing? At what price will the market clear? Add a zero? Two zero’s? Please understand this, when the margin call is issued worldwide, there is only one money where the call will work in reverse, precious metals. The “call” will be for real, yet non existent metal. Gold had already sniffed this margin call and re set out a couple of months ago. No matter how much paper was thrown at it, it simply stopped going down. Even while the dollar strengthened synthetically, gold went higher versus the dollar. Gold has clearly been THE best money, what do you think will happen to real metal when it turns out that 99% of the supposed global supply is proven as counterfeit? We will soon witness the greatest margin call in all of history. We will also witness the greatest transfer of wealth and re set in all of history! My only question is whether what so far has been “rolling re sets” becomes an official market/bank/finance closure and announced …or, do the markets continue to trade and force re sets in market after market. As an additional note, we have one last question to ponder which may or may not be connected. Koos Jansen put forth a “mystery guest’s” theory that the Swiss went short gold in Sept. 2011 which marked the top in gold. He asks in the following link, “did Switzerland just cover their short“? https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/guest-post-i-have-a-theory-on-the-swiss-franc/ I believe there may be some credence to this theory but would go one step further. Zerohedge asks the question and speculates Japan may be the next “Switzerland” and pull the plug on Abenomics. Personally I see it a little differently, more importantly, what if the Chinese were to react to the coming QE4 by doing two things? What if China just walked away and sold their dollar holdings …and at the same time revoked their current peg of the yuan to the dollar? Will China some day ratio back their yuan with gold? I think this is likely. Would the dollar collapse 30% like the euro just did versus the franc or will the re set be much larger? Of course the next question would be “how high would gold be marked up”? An unpegging of the yuan by China would be more important and (current) system ending than nearly anything else I can imagine. For China to break their peg, the paper short positions in gold and silver would finally be exposed for what they are, counterfeits! Regards, Bill Holter BILL HOLTER, Associate Writer, Miles Franklin Precious Metal Specialists Website: www.milesfranklin.com Prior to joining Miles Franklin in 2012, Bill Holter Worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. Later, he left Wall Street to avoid potential liabilities related to management of paper assets. In 2006 he retired and moved to Costa Rica where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. Bill was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-reset-has-already-begun
  2. Has anyone seen the news reports on CNBC, about how several Countries, ( not named) are set to revalue there currency this weekend. The Financial chief said Investors are tuned to watch Saturday night, for several countries to change their currency.. What does that mean? How does that effect our insight to the IQD. This is very frustrating. No mention of any country in particular, except, there was a lop with the India's' currency. They announced the zeros has been dropped. No increase in value yet. Just $100., is now $1., etc. No one else is commenting. Also; the article in a Wall Street , said O Bummer wants all US loans paid back. The countries effected will use their new value currency to repay loans. This will satisfy the US deficit. What?????????..... I am suspicious, because It is way tooo quiet. If we are in for major global reset, there are lots of potential millionaires out there. At least we would hear something of that..... Should I buy more IQD before Saturday night? Does anyone know about this.? Maybe a more savvy Investor would understand what this means?
  3. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/qbamco-precious-metals-and-coming-great-resetQBAMCO On Precious Metals And The Coming 'Great Reset' Authored by Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QBAMCO, Volume Triage Last Sunday we closed the macroeconomic portion of “Imperial Constraint” with the following: “So we ask again, are there really unpredictable market shocks or are investors paid not to care? To us, all signs point towards the next currency reset. We think monetary authorities are compulsively destroying the current global monetary system; they simply have no choice if they are to keep it afloat in the short term. We further think they will have no choice but to replace it with a gold exchange standard they oversee (i.e., a gold-standard-light, “Bretton Woods” type reset). Perhaps this explains the current redistribution away from unreserved paper gold to physical gold? We would not be surprised if, in 2014, someone like Larry Summers or Tim Geithner takes control of the Fed and oversees such an operation.” Two days later the Fed announced Ben Bernanke would not attend the Jackson Hole summit, for the first time in twenty five years. A couple days after that the New York Times (on the first page, no less) ran an in depth profile of Janet Yellen, the heir apparent to run the Fed. Beneath her profile there were three other candidates “being discussed:” Roger Ferguson, Tim Geithner and Larry Summers. We normally do not spend time handicapping presidential appointments. In this case; however, we think the choice for next Fed Chair may have profound economic implications, and that it would not require expertise in econometric modeling, credit policy management, and maintaining the public perception of economic stability. As we wrote last week, we think the next Fed Chairman will oversee a conversion of the global monetary regime. A thick skin, diplomatic skills, and strong relationships with global banks and monetary policy makers will be the skill set most needed. We think Tim Geithner (with Bill Dudley as an alternative) will take over the Fed when Ben Bernanke steps down next January, and it seems by all indications that the table is already being set. We attended a small dinner party a few years ago at which an iconic financier (and major Obama supporter) let it slip that he questioned one of Obama’s most senior aides just prior to the 2008 Democratic convention about taking over the economy when it was imploding. The aide waived it off and exclaimed; “oh don’t worry, Bobby has it covered!” Most of the table was relieved that Bob Rubin still had their backs and that banks would keep priority. Such was, and remains, US economic policy. Neither growth nor austerity nor gloom of night will stay these currencies from their appointed devaluations. Bank balance sheets must be preserved; ergo sufficient inflation must be manufactured. We think the dull but persistent economic malaise amid increasingly aggressive monetary intervention policies will soon engender fear among the not-so-great washed – net savers. This happier band of brothers cannot maintain an edge when the real economy contracts and interest rates are already at zero. Base money is already being manufactured in the form of bank reserves and the total money stock is not growing because there is very little natural economic incentive among the rest of us to consume (much) or take risk. Something and someone new is needed. Ben Bernanke seems like a brilliant political economist and a decent guy, the top of his field in terms of comportment, academic credentials and specific competence in understanding historical monetary policies during a counter-cyclical (i.e., de-leveraging) period. Perhaps Janet Yellen is too? But such qualities are not what we think will be preferred by the powers that be now that global resource producers are openly questioning US, British, Euro and Japanese monetary policies and reserve holders are realizing their stash is being methodically turned to trash. Meanwhile, aggregate leverage is growing and real economies are withering. Does anyone believe that Ben or any other monetary authority has been proactive, or that any fiscal authority has enacted legislation that promises to help achieve “escape velocity?” Can’t we all agree that the rationale for economic policy may be boiled down to the counterfactual: “yes, but imagine if they withdrew liquidity or enforced true austerity – it would be worse!”? Is there a serious analyst who still believes economies can grow their ways out of being over-levered without leveraging further? Whether or not contraction has to come-a-knocking prior to a monetary reset is anyone’s guess, but it would be difficult to imagine monetary system change without a generally-recognized economic tragedy that precedes it. This implies disappointing GDP prints, declining corporate revenues and maybe even a swoon in stock and real estate markets. We have already begun to experience the first two. Now that we read global central banks have begun buying equities, perhaps equity prices may be controlled too (as are the level of interest rates via large scale asset purchases like QE and relative currency exchange rates via timed interventions)? Negative output growth and asset price busts would certainly open the door for our hero to enter. The role of a central banker in the late stages of de-leveraging seems to be volume triage, as they say in intelligence circles – reacting to an increasing barrage of events as they occur, wherever they may occur. In economics as in policing, the bad guys always get to take the first shot. From the central banker’s perspective, the bad guy in the current regime is the real economy. If it continues to shrink, as we think it must, then TPTB must change the way they do business. We think the box we drew in Imperial Constraint is the key metric in understanding the forces behind economic growth and market pricing. An inflationary leveraging perpetuates imbalances while deflationary deleveraging threatens the survival of the banking system at large. Hopes for organic credit growth, which would promote the former, are now fleeting. This, in turn, engenders the threat of the latter. Continued ZIRP, increasing asset purchases and a steep decline in the universal efficacy of it all suggests the time to press the reset button is quickly approaching. May to December 2013 may turn out to be the darkness before the dawn; a time we look back upon and choose to forget. All in all we think the most efficient Fed Chair in advance of a reset would be Paul Krugman. He seems willing to destroy the current global monetary system with swift dispatch, without consultation, declaration (or second drafts). Alas, capitalist economies in liberal democracies require level-headed responses to market forces. There is no place for rogue pro-actionists. Institutions like the Fed are meant to appear as first responders working on behalf of the societies their banks serve. And so we think that circa 2070, our children will write and read (140-word) biographies about how Timothy Geithner saved the world from economic darkness. Geithner will save the day and bring glory to the Obama presidency by reducing the burden of debt repayment while maintaining the nominal integrity of debt covenants and bank balance sheets. The only way to accomplish this would be by destroying the currencies in which those debts are owed. Net debtors will rejoice and net savers (all 1% of them?) will suffer, finally realizing their unreserved currencies and levered financial assets were never sustainable wealth in the first place. Our little narrative could certainly turn out to be wrong, but we discuss it here (against all political wisdom) because we cannot find another one that better fits current macro and market pricing trends. If we are wrong about Mr. Geithner, we think it would imply that TPTB (raise your hand if you think the Fed’s shareholders do not choose/approve the Fed Chairman) believe a clear-headed and decent academic political economist can figure out what all past ones could not: how to support asset prices beyond ZIRP and central bank asset purchases. (Ben is gone, long reign Janet!) That is not our projection. When and if it becomes clear that Tim Geithner will ascend the steps at Eccles, we think it would already be too late to buy physical gold and resources. The only play remaining for financial asset investors looking to get full value after the reset would be shares in precious metal miners and natural resource producers holding reserves in nature’s vault. Properly held bullion and shares in precious metal miners would act as the most efficient store of purchasing power over the course of the devaluation and conversion. (Worst to first? Get ‘em while they’re cold!) Futures, ETFs, unallocated bullion holdings and other fractionally reserved claims on physical reserves easily replaced with cash would not participate. If our scenario comes to pass, then bank, government and consumer balance sheets would be quite healthy following the reset and would be ready to expand. We would think consumable commodities and shares in their producers would lead equity markets higher and that interest rates would remain low, as further inflation would be mitigated by the discipline of a full or partial peg to precious metals. We think all should question whether we are 100% wrong. If not, then prudence dictates some allocation to properly held precious metals. (Presently, it is less than 1% of all global pensions.)
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