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CNN. Broadcasting Something (Long) To Read Before Adam's Chat Gets Posted ! Tlar Commentary & 2008 Strategic Study Tlar Can someone please post the 2008 strategic study here. This is the plan that Iraq is following IMO. It sets forth the guidelines with which both Shabibi's CBI, Turki's CBI and what I believe Keywords is operating under. A roadmap worth revisiting. It would be a good review for newer folks as well as a good discussion point to take apart. Also could we post Dr. Bakri and his educating Iraqi's in symposiums and at Universities while he worked for the CBI. In his training he discusses the before and after exchange rate change that is coming. These two articles together would help explain the guts of the program as to how it affects the people of Iraq and the dinar providing us with a better nderstanding of what's happening today and where they are going. Well worth revisiting these discussions. Thanks in advance to whoever re-posts these articles. tlar Tlar Here it is. Read the whole thing. The meat is at the bottom ~~~ PDA View Full Version : MOP The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies 6-8-10 *** removed link *** Poster/Username : [Tenmillion] 06-08-2010, 03:53 PM NO DATE copyright 2008 Ministry of P*****ng The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars. Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency: 1. It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine. The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs. * What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar. In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished: · Export-outputs. · Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports. · Imported inputs. · Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports. · Foreign labor. According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules. In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency .... etc.). In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency. 2. Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment p*****ng. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports... etc. The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are: · The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment p*****ng level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production. · The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs. · The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods. · The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities. · This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of. And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate. 3. THIS IS THE PART THAT IS INTERESTING. REMEMBER THIS STUDY WAS DONE IN 2008. "Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities. " Tlar The above is an RV followed by a controlled float. Since then I believe with the strength of the reserves and fewer dinars circulating, they will just float after they delete the zeros. This is pretty much the plan Shabibi was following and I think Turki has been following since he took over albeit more cautiously. LWR here's the link http://www.mop.gov.iq/mop/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295&lng=en Tlar Thank you LWR. I went through heck last night looking through literarily thousands of articles until luckily I googled "2008 cbi currency study". Even there it was 7 -8 pages of stuff until I found it. PART ONE DOLLARIZATION OF IRAQ AND WHY THIS SUPPORTS RV Tlar Another thing of interest. In April 2012 the CBI started intently collecting the 3 zero notes, the 5000, the 10000, and the 25000. Its policy back them was to keep every big note that came into the bank and give out an equal number of small notes consisting of the 50, 250, and 1000. We knew long term this did not really reduce the number of dinars in circulation but instead caused considerable inconvenience for Iraqi's as it became impossible to use the smaller notes to pay for big items. None of these denominations were even equal to one dollar so a combination of the smaller denominations trying to pay for a $100 dollar item might conceivably take hundreds of these notes. We thought of this as Iraqi's having to push a wheel barrel around or carry a grocery bag full of cash, just to go to the store. Thus began the dollarization of Iraq whether CBI planned or not. USD was already circulating as far back as 2003 due to the monies the US had sent to Iraq to juice it's government, but not in the large numbers we see today. In 2006 Shabibi put in a number of measures to get people to turn in their dollars for dinars but the dollar stayed. As far back as 2006 he was still trying to de-dollarize Iraq. Shabibi even considered making transactions done in the dollar illegal but realized that was a folly. Both currencies would exist side by side with the dinar being used mainly for small transactions and the dollar, medium to large transactions. Somewhere late 2011 -2012 Shabibi made a strategic decision to dollarize Iraq. This was a complete reversal of direction. We know the CBI had been changing large dinars in and sending out an equal number of smaller note, but this was not reducing the numbers of dinar at all. About this time the UN installed heavy sanctions on Syria and Iran, all but collapsing their currencies. At the same time Shabibi stated the bank would no longer accept Syria's or Iran's currencies. A concerted effort began to repatriate the dinars in Iran and Syria. This set the stage for the dollarizing of Iraq completely. By the end of 2012 the auctions were almost exclusively buying dinars with USD, retiring those dinars. In other words dollarizing Iraq started in earnest at that time. Both Syrian and Iran were dumping the trillions of dinars they were in possession of due to favored trade agreements signed with Maliki at the beginning of 2010. Both the governments of Iran and Syria early on had accepted the dinar in balance of trade, and the business between citizens of both countries along their adjoining borders was being done in both countries’ currencies. Because sanctions imposed on Iran and Syria collapsed their currencies causing both countries economic disasters, they were both desperate to get hard currency to stay afloat. Their own currencies were basically worthless so they turned to their stock piles of dinars as a way to get hard currency. The only place they could dump their dinars for hard currency was Iraq because it too is not tradable. So this began not only the dollarization of Iraq but the cleaning up the markets of the middle east. I have often said this was a UN inspired plan to get the dinars out of the hands of rouge states like Iran and Syria and may have well been the real reason Shabibi did not change the monetary policy. They had to first clean up the mistake made by Maliki when he signed those favored trade agreements allowing Syria and Iran to stockpile trillions of dinar in the first place. Phillyman This is all nice Tlar but what are your sources telling you? JUST KIDDING. Thanks for the great insight you have brought here. I think I am actually beginning to understand some of this stuff. HandOverFist Thanks so much, Tlar, for all this background information. It's very helpful in understanding the "how and why" of all of this. Tlar PART TWO - DOLLARIZATION OF IRAQ We have watched as the auctions selling dollars for dinars have gone from 360 million USD equivalent in the beginning through today when they have been 20 to as high as 153 million per day. This has been going on for over a year and a half but the intent is clear. Iraq is dollarizing and dollarizing fast. 350 billion USD buys at todays exchange rate buys 408.1 billion dinars. At one time 350 million USD sales for dinar was happening every day which means in the beginning of the project to repatriate dinars the CBI was buying almost a trillion dinars every week. We know from an article Saleh had told us in early 2012 that there was only 4 trillion dinar circulating in Iraq which says to me that most of what the CBI was buying was coming out of Syria and Iran. Their stock piles were being reduced rapidly clearing the way for a possible RV to take place with out the fear of enriching these rouge states. Think of it this way. No one would want to see a state that sponsors terrorism to receive trillions and trillions of dollars with which to finance terror. Simply put, this problem had to be dealt with first. The CBI's policy for at least the last year and a half has been to buy and retire dinars. The consequences of this we see every day in articles of lack of liquidity and the citizen complaints of the poor condition of the existing dinars still circulating in Iraq. But just recently the CBI has added new rules and ways to get even more dinars out of circulation. The CBI announced they will be selling gold coins for dinars only. That implies to me they want to bring in the last of what they can before whatever they intend to do with the monetary policy. A mop up project. If the true intent of this project was just to make the CBI money, then why not accept any currency with value. So what does all this mean as to how this will come down. The CBI has shown itself to be intent on retiring dinar, not releasing it. This would favor an RV as itf we assumed that they were completely dollarized, they could pull the switch and trade 1 .16 new dinars for each dollar in Iraq. As each trade was made the incoming dollar would be held a reserve and each incoming dollar would cover the out going dinar completely. This covers the requirements for reserves which has to cover circulating currency only. Currency held by you and me and in central banks around the world are not considered circulating, but rather this currency is at rest. It does not have to be covered by the CBI's reserves according to the rules governing currency reserves. So from strictly a monetary stance, an RV fits with this scenario very well. The problem with the float theory is obvious right from the start. Assumptions are being made by those who promote this theory that the dinar, once an IMF article currency, will just skyrocket. If the dinar is introduced at 1166 and it is a tradable currency, this could create major problems for its rapid increase. Remember Iraq is running a budget deficit. If the currency was international surely they would begin to use it to pay their balance of payments with re-flooding the markets with dinar. As trillions of new dinar hit the markets both at home and around the world it would work against any rapid rise in the currency. ‘ The CBI would also have to re-release some of the dinar it had been collecting and retiring, or they would have to print additional new notes of the old currency at even larger denominations than the 25,000 in order to satisfy market demands. We know that the only new notes they have printed since 2003 is the three language smalls sitting at the CBI. So there exists a real risk, just one of many, for the CBI if they were to free float the currency from 1166. Also dollarization would still exist because what Iraqi is going to go to the bank and swap his money for tattered dinars. This is the reason he traded to the dollar in the first place because his own countries currency has no value and it is in tatters, making it almost impossible to spend. This can only be an RV. The benefits of an RV far outweigh the float theory. There are many more articles that support deleting the zeros both before and after far outweighing the articles during the 3 month period at the end of 2012, where articles talked about a Float. PS I would like to apologize for any mis-spelled words or grammatical errors. I don't like to read my own stuff. Its too long. lol KJWayne That makes so much sence that it is scary to me. Thanks again Tlar! At this point in this investment, I don't care about the rate just the date. I need to cash in some and wait some more. Waiting has become easy! A rate above $2.00 and I'll be in Austin eating BBQ! Jtdinar Good stuff and pretty much blows Kraperonis float from the current rate out of the water. Until "reappreciation" stands out as well and the reassessment would have taken place in 2011. Makes me wonder what the feasibility rate is set at now?? Tlar jtdinar, the program is the same. Only the minute difference is that the adjust for the conditions today. Deleting the zeros is .86. So the adjustment has been made from 1.13 to 1.16. Also because of the CBI's deliberate move to dollarize, the CBI IMO would be stupid to hold the rate for three years as recommended in the study. My best guess is they will start the float at the staged rate of .86 or 1.16 same thing. I think it will come out as a float at the same time and it will "gradually" as they would have "liberalized their exchange regime" will cause the rise, as the dinar excitement draws dinarians to be very hyped. We will be singing their gospels creating an even bigger market. Iraq's desire is to return the currency to its glory days. Having this size RV will open the eyes of investors worldwide. Everyone will want to have dinar as part of their portfolio even stating at .86 because it was $3.24 and would look to investors as they still is plenty of room for profit.. This WILL drive demand for the dinar through the roof. There is not enough dinars out there and we all know what a limited supply does to prices to satify demand. Jtdinar Awesome, thank you Tlar. Makes sense. How does this tie in with the release of the LD's and the current currency existing side by side for 2 years as stated in a recent article by either MOF or CBI, not sure which it was....realizing of course that many will exchange right away and run for the hills. Just curious how M0, M1, M2 supply will be affected with the value/float..February 13, 2014 at 11:38 A Ted Thanks Tlar, I agree with your synopsis & appreciate all the time & effort you have put into this & welcome you to CC. Has anyone heard from Randy lately, I'm curios to know if he thinks we're in another window now or if he still thinks it'll be after the elections? Tlar All the CBI is saying is that both the existing large notes and the new smalls will be legal tender in Iraq for up to three years. Like you, I do not think it will take that long but who knows. Shabibi was the one who originally proposed that they let both currencies circulate together when he planned to delete the zeros, and Turki has also now repeated the same thing indicating he is following Shabibi's plan. Shabibi was following the strategic plan of 2008 to delete the zeros. KJWayne Any body got any info on this Feb.16th date for the CBI to sell government bonds of this year? I can't find any article. hi-five Tlar, should we just continue the great thread from last year? A lot of good stuff was posted. Here is the link to the plan taken from page 1 of this thread. http://www.mop.gov.iq/mop/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295&lng=en Tlar Commentary & 2008 Strategic Study Part 2 tlar Blue thank you. It is my belief that the plan has not changed at all with the one exception that the rate is adjusted since 2008 to refect the economic reality of today. Now if we can also add Dr. Bakri's article of his explanation of how the new rate will affect the average Iraqi citizen. That will be most interesting since it follows the strategic plan. Dr. Bakri was hired by the CBI to explain this process to Iraqi's and educate them on the change to come. Thanks again Blue. tlar NCtallguy Thank you Tlar for this and EVERYTING else you bring. I remember reading this many months ago when Millionday posted it. (she was still at People Invested at the time I bekieve). Later I started to think that maybe I HAD NOT read this after all the float from 1166 talk was going around. Thanks again. ~~~ hi-five I can't find the article, but here is a thread where it is being talked about. Turning 30 trillion IQD into 30 billion IQD. How? Best I can do is quote the symposium article from two weeks ago... Advantages deletion of zeros from the Iraqi currency first: the horizontal level: delete the three zeroes mean conversion (30) trillion dinars (30) billion dinars. Second: the vertical plane: restructuring and currency composition means reductase (4) trillion banknote currently in circulation (2.8) billion and banknotes. ~ Kap - *** removed link *** What we care about is the physical paper currency..which appears to retain it's face value...as stated differently. It is not saying "conversion" in this case, but "reductase" (or reduce) (4) trillion banknote currently in circulation (2.8) billion and banknotes. This supports the "collection of dinar" we have stated has been going on for some time and the "lack of liquidity" in banks, etc. Therefore, the physical paper dinar will retain it's printed face value...25,000 dinar is 25,000 dinar. BTW, this fully supports Dr. Bakri's research paper some months ago in the forums where he stated..1000 dinar would then buy 1000 packs of cigarettes (assuming you could purchase 1 pack for 1000 dinar before). Doc, let me try and make it simple. Iraq has about 34 trillion dinar in circulation in country. According to the above statements, 30 trillion of it may be in the form of emoney (or electronic money). The rest is in paper money on the streets, under pillows or beds, etc. In total its about 34 trillion which must be reduced. Therefore, they will remove the zeros from bank accounts (reducing 30 trillion electronic money to 30 billion). And collect as much of the 4 trillion paper on the streets that remains (because its worth its printed face value) to reduce the money supply of paper to 2.8 billion or less. Then they can raise the value and give out new dinar such as 1, 5, 10, 20, etc. None of this really has anything to do with us other than they are honoring the "paper" dinar at it's printed face value..which is what we want so as the exchange rate rises, we can cash our dinar at that rate. So the only way an Iraqi can profit from this is to retain the physical "paper" dinar. Which most do anyways since there is little faith in banking. ~ Kap Just thinking out loud here, but isn't it from 4 billion pieces of paper to 1 billion pieces of paper? So, if every denomination gets removed equally, they would have 7.5 trillion dinars remaining after it's done, but I would imagine they would want to have removed primarily larger denominations and be left with a whole lot of 500s and 250s. 1 billion 250 notes would be worth $250B at 1:1. ~ ReVbo Tlar Let me take a stab at this. I have to agree with RevBo. Iraq probably has 4 billion pieces of paper in circulation according to this article. Forget the denomination on the note. We are talking physical individual pieces of paper. Their goal is to reduce this 4 billion pieces of paper to 1 billion. Assuming there is around 4 billion pieces of paper dinar, and 30 million Iraqi's, that means that per man, women and child, there is 133 pieces of paper. per person. Iraq is a cash society at present. Most Iraqi's don't use the banks. They have their cash either on them or they hide it at home. The goal of the CBI is to reduce this enormous amount of paper down to 1 billion. Asuming once there is a change in the value, the hope is Iraqi's once again, will start to use the banks. Either way if they are successful, the amount of paper per person will be reduced to 33 pieces per person whether they use the banks or not. Looking at the new denominations, the1, 5, 10 ,25, 50, the 100 coin, the 250 and the 500, it is conceivable that their 1 billion target will actually end up being be much less in total pieces of paper actually in circulation especially, if Iraqi's start to use their banks. -An example would be if an Iraqi came into the bank to change a 10,000 note. The bank according to what Shabibi intended to accomplish, would attempt to convince him to open a bank account, and only carry what he deemed necessary to operate that day or week. Lets say he thought 3-4 hundred dinar walking around money was appropriate. That would leave him potentially depositing 9600 dinar in a new account which would not be paper, but rather an electronic number (account) at the bank in his name. Now back to the 400. If he were to take this all in 50 dinar notes you would be talking 8 notes. There is any number of configurations but most likely his combinations would be made in 5, 10, 25, and 50's with a few 1 dinar notes thrown in. The anticipated worst case if he did deposit 9600 dinar is that he would leave the bank with no more that 15-20 pieces of paper, far short of the 33 pieces that was what was available to him based on the 1 billion notes after the currency change.. 33 notes per person, if they can get the Iraq's to use the banks should be more than enough cash to be considered having enough liquidity. Look at your own wallet. If you count the bills, forgetting the amounts or the individual denominations, how many pieces of paper do you operate with on a daily bases? 30 trillion dinar does not mean 30 trillion pieces of paper because we know that the higher denominations skew this number. Iraq has been using mainly the higher numbers because the use of the 50 or 250 is valueless in day to day transactions. So we know that if every note of the 4 billion out was a 25000 note, this would equal, 100,000,000,000,000 dinar or 100 trillion dinar. Even if Iraq still has out 30 trillion dinar (which they don't) it is easy to account the 4 billion pieces of paper. If it were true that 30 trillion dinar is still out in circulation, and that equals 4 billion pieces of paper, that would mean that the average denomination on each piece of paper would only be 7500 dinar, far short of the 25000 note. This means that it is a combination of notes of 250, 1000, 5000, 10000 and 25000 notes that comprise the 4 billion notes in circulation but mostly the higher 3 zero notes. I don't know if I explained my thoughts on this clearly, but I hope this helps. Realize the CBI is targeting as a minimum a reduction 3 billion pieces of paper. They will only accomplish this one of two ways, keep dollarizing and then change the value of the currency, or just change the value of the currency. ~ Tlar Kap If they plan to reduce 4 billion "units" (which would mean a paper note) to 1 billion "units" they are telling us that they plan to collect 75% of all the dinar in country and replace it. That being said, they then would have decided 25% or about 7 trillion would remain. So the definition of the horizontal and verticle plain would be a combination of reducing the value (30 trillion to 30 billion) and the quantity (4 billion paper to 1 billion paper). ~ Kap Tlar Kap, ultimately they plan to replace 100% of the dinar and substitute it with the new smalls. The article to me says that included in this change that as a minimum goal, 75% of the physical paper will not be re-released. It will be retired and only 1 billion pieces of paper will replace it. This will be accomplished by raising the value of the currency making it impractical for Iraqi's to carry it around. It also will be dangerous to carry that much around. While admittedly not every Iraqi will open accounts and deposite there excess cash, it was the hope of Shabibi that most would. He issued orders to the banks to "take your time swapping old for new, and set up as many accounts for Iraqi's as you can". Shabibi was hopeful that through this transition the Iraqi's would begin to start using the banks again. This was a key in Shabibi's mind to add additional home grown capital to these banks. If most Iraqi's actually opened accounts this would almost qualify as another recapitalization of the banks. This would happen as depositers started to flow in. In the above article, to me it is implying just what you said. 75% of the dinar would go to the banks and would stay with the banks in depositers accounts. The value of the currency, assuming 1 to 1 at some point would cause the currency to be to expensive too not use the banks. This was Shabibi's idea, not mine. Saleh told us that in Iraq there was an estimated 4 trillion dinar. He told us this before Shabibi was removed and before they started to buy all the dinar in the Middle East, dollarizing Iraq. No one knows how much dinar is left but in reality, the 30 trillion number that is frequently used has to be much less. The 30 trillion Iraq said was out must have included Central banks around the world and speculators. It was a statement that meant what was both in and out of Iraq. 75% of the 4 trillion dinar, after the dinar obtains a 1 to 1 equality with the dollar, means 3 trillion will go into the banks to recapitalize them. Certainaly that is not a lot for the bank to cover especially since once the dinar is international, the bank falls under the international banking laws. They must only cover 400 billion or 10% of the outstanding currency in Iraq. What the IMF will accept in gold, foreign currency, and oil and gas is up to them but certainly 400 billion is easily covered if they allow some liberalization of the rules. Recent articles have said the IMF has liberalized/relaxed the rules and now is allowing for countries to use assets such as oil and minerals to back their currencies. Lastly the bank has reserves of 70 plus billion. In May we know that the funds will be released to Iraq. But as a hedge, if Iraq were to go to 1 to 1 and the Iraqi's started trading in their dollars for dinar, the bank would recapture the billions of US sold to Iraqi's over the last year. All of this would boost substantially their foreign currency reserves. ~ Tlar Tlar [February 24, 2015 at 7:08 PM ] I have been asked many times about my feelings concerning a rate coming out worth over $3.00. I will do my best to explain my beliefs I hope it for the last time and try to bring it all together in one post. This study posted here from 2008 was commissioned at the request of the CBI. The purpose was obvious. Shabibi wanted to know as he went into 2009 some idea of what value should the dinar be. At the end of 2008 the IMF in preparation for the dinar to go international soon, asked Shabibi to demonstrate he could control the rate and inflation using only the auctions as his tool. So starting in 2009 Shabibi froze the rate at 1170 as he attempted to demonstrate his control of the currency while maintaining inflation. All through 2009 the rate was frozen at 1170 and inflation and the rate both remained stable. He passed the test with flying colors and in December of 2009 he was given the green light by the IMF to prepare to bring the dinar international. In January 2010 the CBI announced to the world through Forex's that the dinar would be redenominated before the end of 2010 which was quickly followed by an article from the ISX stating they would be an international exchange by October of the same year, 2010. The delete the zero program was on and in its final countdown. The study took into consideration all the above indicators listed in the Study to determine the rate. Today we see those conditions have all changed for the better. The foreign currency reserves were approximately 30 billion in 2008 and there was no gold reserves in 2008. BIS was not even being considered in 2008. Oil production was around 1.5 million in total which meant very little oil was actually being sold yet as much of it was being used for domestic consumption. In 2008, circulating dinar had to have been more than today because the CBI had not started its dollarization program and the currency in Iraq was only 4-5 years circulating. In other words they unlike today, were actually using dinar in the streets. So in 2008 the reserves were approx. 1/3 of the reserves today. There was no gold and no BIS deposites and much more currency in circulation. Oil production was less than 40% of what it is today but yet the currency was valued through the study as being 1.134 dinars to a dollar. Oil reserves in 2008 which indicate wealth in the ground, was much less than it is today. If you do the math 1.134 is very close to deleting the zeros for the exchange rate in 2008. Thus the birth of the deletion of the zero program. My contention is this. By the numbers alone Iraq has no less than three times the value for the dinar than it did in 2008 just taking into count its primary assets, oil and money, BIS, oil reserves and gold. In addition their debt has been reduced significantly through agreements with debtors following the Paris club agreements and we know that even hard to close debts like Kuwait and Egypt has subjugated their debt to Iraq or at least agreed to put them on hold. Now for my secondary thoughts on this. I have mentioned I have friends who are in a group that have placed their dinars with WF. The qualifications of the group for WF was to organize a group consisting of at least 1 billion total dinars. Each member of the group had to first set up an account with WF if they did not have one. Then all dinars had to be verified and bundled in 1 million bundles and put in envelopes as they created a disk with all pertinent information, WF account number and personal information, number of dinars put in etc. Then each person had to sign two documents, a 104 fincen form and an agreement to sell their dinars at a number between $3 and $4 dollars in order to be in the group. It was done very professionally and each person in the group has pre-agreed in advance that they will sell their dinars placed with WF, if WF hits this number of at least $3. This particular group put 1.2 billion dinars in total with WF with this one group alone. Whether you believe this or not doesn't bother me but if you do, then we must think that WF has some kind of a heads up as to the rate and is trying to organize the buy in advance. This particular group has had their dinars placed with WF for 7ish months and is still waiting to be bought out just like us. If it comes out less than $3.00 WF will have to contact each person on this list individually and re-negotiate the buy all over causing major hassles and problems as I am sure some will want their dinars back or only choose to sell a smaller amount than what they had put with WF.. The whole plan of WF would be screwed up or at the very least be a hassle to WF. Individually I know 5 people in this group. I too was invited to be in the group but chose not to because they could not tell us the costs or fees in advance, or at what actual rate they would be buying the dinar at. Only a range. I think I can do better because the day this happens the only thing these people will get is a deposit and an accounting of the charges. They can't protest after the fact. The fees charged by WF alone might be in the 7-9%, and who knows if they won't pass the Treasury fee's on separately. This is a win win for WF locking in this business without disclosing costs before hand. Anyway, because the dinar was considered worth 1.134 in the middle of 2008 when Iraq was in the infant stages, and because the numbers are significantly better than they were in 2008 when the Study was done, and because of my knowledge of one group in Dallas agreeing to sell at $3 or better, I can't help but feel we are looking at a reality rate at somewhere close to an RI. All my opinion only. tlar February 24, 2015 at 7:08 PM KJWayne Mr. Tlar, I thank you! The man that got me into this thing was told that the end rate should be around $3.22 and then would float up or down to what the market would bear! You would all know that mans name if I stated it but I won't do that . He has since ,passed away. An RI makes this deal work. That is the rate of the dinar before the sanctions were place don Iraq. No reason that it can't go back to that rate. At least to start with danny griffin TLAR DO YOU THINK THAT ALL THE STUFF ABOUT GOING TO GO AFTER ISIS IN APRIL-MAY MAY GO ALONG WITH SOME OF WHAT IS BEING SAID ON THIS BOARD. THE GOI OR CBI WHICHEVER WILL PULL THE TRIGGER MAY HAVE BEEN TOLD THE CBI NEEDS TO DRAW IN MORE OF THE 3 ZERO NOTES AND IRAQ NEEDS ANOTHER MONTH OR TWO TO GET THE IRAQI'S USED TO BEING DIGITIZED AND THEN AFTER ISIS IS DEFEATED AND RAN OUT OF IRAQ THEY CAN THEN RV, OR DO WHATEVER THEY WANT TO DO. I AM RETIRED MILITARY AND COULDN'T BELIEVE THEY WOULD GIVE THEM A TIMEFRAME FOR THE ATTACK, BUT IT MAY ALL BE A PART OF THE PLAN. THE US TALKING ABOUT A DATE MAY ALSO JUST BE SETTING ISIS UP TO GET COMFORTABLE AND THEN THE GOI AND COALITION FORCES MIGHT POUNCE EARLIER. ANYWAY, JUST WONDERID IF YOU THOUGHT THIS MAKES SENSE. I AM NOT THAT KNOWLEDGEABLE ON THIS BANKING STUFF. February 24, 2015 at 7:31 PM Sun Devil TLAR I've never forgotten your story about that group and have wondered what your thoughts were on it after all this time and still no RV. So glad to see you discuss it and elaborate on it. Love all of your info you bring to the site...keep it coming. February 24, 2015 at 7:33 PM Livefree Thank you tlar for that succint explanation. Wonderfully delivered, easy to understand and thought provoking. Not to mention darned exciting !! Thanks for sharing your friends 'bank story' as it certainly lends credibility to this entire investment and a wonderful 'picker upper' for when we're feeling down. Now we know the rate, can you give us the date? :lol: Just kidding but if you know it, spill it. :lol:. Can you tell you perked me up? Oh, and btw, this 4 year extended time frame from the original plan has allowed so many more people to take advantage of this and has also allowed us to purchase additional amounts over the years. Yes, you can find the good in anything if you look for it hard enough! I feel blessed. February 24, 2015 at 7:44 PM Flag Quote & Reply hi-five Thanks Tlar. That's a great analysis. And thanks for sharing the WF dinar group info. Tlar Danny, I believe Shabibi just answered this question in his recent interview. He eluded to the fact that the security while being extremely important to Iraq, economic policy is also important. I got from this that although the 2 are related, they are equal parts to be resolved for the whole of Iraq, but separate issues. I may be wrong but IMO economic policy as we have been witnessing is forging ahead in spite of the war or terrorists. The CBI will be the one to pull the trigger because that is their responsibility only and they are independent. That is not to play down the fact that they can't do this project alone. The government must be on board if this is to have any chance of success. The government has shown its willingness to support the CBI by enacting laws that will help the project such as the tariffs, taxes and the economic friendly laws to investment. That's why the Shabibi and the CBI under Maliki did not pull the trigger during Maliki's term IMO. Maliki not only would not support the program but was opening hostile to it setting Iraq back eight years from evolving into a rich country. Instead of partnering with the CBI, he chose to attack it over and over causing Shabibi to shut down every date that he wanted to start the program. As far as pulling in more notes, I believe they have already repatriated enough 3 zero notes to forge ahead with the program. I am not sure what the hold up is but we know they can't hold very long without causing unrest in the streets. They have opened pandora's box and they better finish the transition quick or they also stand to damage the banking sector. Remember the banks have made a living off commissions selling the US dollar to Iraqi citizens. By discontinuing the auctions they have effectively cut the legs and their profits out from under those banks. Their profits will drop substantially and each day that goes by, expenses roll on without revenue coming in. Either way as a good friend of mine just paraphrased to me, Iraq has jumped out of the plane and is in a freefall. They have a very short fuse to pull the ripcord. Lastly your concerns about giving ISIS a heads up on the date of an attack, is not something I am concerned with. We don't know that any date they give us is real, meaning we may attack at any time prior to this date which technically would be a surprise attack. Also if they build it up enough that we are coming to exterminate them, we most likely will see some additional erosion in their strength as ISIS rebels start to leave the city rather than die. This already happened a month or so ago as reports came in through the news that defectors were packing up and leaving the city. Admittedly it might backfire and we may see just the reverse with an ISIS build up but I don't think so. I just leave it up to the guys prosecuting the war who are close to this and are designing the plan to remove them. I try not to be an arm chair quarterback to our military experts. Hope this answers your questions. All IMO, tlar