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Found 330 results

  1. Colombian president awarded honour days after country thrown into turmoil over rejection of peace deal in referendum Sibylla Brodzinsky in Bogotá and Jon Henley Friday 7 October 2016 12.20 BST https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/07/juan-manuel-santos-wins-nobel-peace-prize-for-work-with-farc
  2. Republican candidate insists friendly forum in Sandown, New Hampshire is not a rehearsal for Sunday’s debate with Hillar.y Clinton Ben Jacobs in Washington Friday 7 October 2016 07.21 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/07/donald-trump-the-clear-winner-in-town-hall-debate-featuring-only-himself
  3. Antonio Pelle, who escaped from hospital in 2011, found at home in hideout built between bathroom and son’s bedroom Associated Press in Rome Thursday 6 October 2016 01.32 BST Last modified on Thursday 6 October 2016 10.48 BST https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/05/top-mafia-fugitive-arrested-in-italy
  4. The home secretary is cracking down on the number of students from outside Europe. Does she realise how much we contribute to Britain’s economy? Wednesday 5 October 2016 16.14 BST By Kate Lyons Home secretary Amber Rudd addresses the Conservative conference: ‘Rudd is creating an impossible situation for migrants.’ Photograph: James Gourley/REX/Shutterstock My Australian passport: ‘The message stamped on my visa and stuck inside my passport is “No recourse to public funds”.’ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/05/australian-amber-rudd-speech-students-europe
  5. The Democratic vice-presidential nominee: embracing stop and frisk would be ‘a big mistake’ but Republican Pence said claims of ‘implicit bias’ demeaned police Sabrina Siddiqui, Ben Jacobs and David Smith in Farmville, Virginia Wednesday 5 October 2016 13.42 BST The Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Tim Kaine, left, debates criminal justice reform with his Republican opposite number, Mike Pence, in Farmville, Virginia, on Tuesday. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/05/tim-kaine-mike-pence-crime-debate
  6. Exclusive: Daniel Jones, the man at the center of landmark Senate report, goes public for the first time about the investigation that led to the CIA spying on him Spencer Ackerman in Washington Friday 9 September 2016 12.09 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/09/dan-jones-cia-torture-cover-report-senate
  7. In the country’s first camp for internally displaced people since the civil war, 70 people are living on a basketball court: ‘We won’t go back’ People have dinner at the shelter for the displaced community of El Castaño. A total of 19 families left their community after receiving threats. Photograph: Encarni Pindado for the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/sep/30/el-salvador-gang-violence-displaced-refugees-camp
  8. Victim in rush-hour train crash was a woman who was hit by debris while waiting at the terminal, when a NJ Transit train plowed through Hoboken station Mazin Sidahmed in New York and Jessica Glenza in Hoboken, New Jersey Thursday 29 September 2016 16.54 BST People are treated for their injuries outside after a NJ Transit train crashed in to the platform at Hoboken terminal. Photograph: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/29/new-jersey-train-crash-hoboken-injuries
  9. ‘If Germany had Hitler, the Philippines would have ...,’ the president said, pointing to himself Oliver Holmes in Bangkok and agencies Friday 30 September 2016 13.24 BST Last modified on Friday 30 September 2016 13.27 BST https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/30/rodrigo-duterte-vows-to-kill-3-million-drug-addicts-and-likens-himself-to-hitler
  10. Obama criticises decision by lawmakers to issue first veto override of presidency David Smith in Washington Thursday 29 September 2016 06.39 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/28/senate-obama-veto-september-11-bill-saudi-arabia
  11. Police say man pulled an object from his pocket, pointed it at officers and assumed a ‘shooting stance’ Ciara McCarthy and Associated Press in El Cajon Wednesday 28 September 2016 09.30 BST Protesters at the scene of the police shooting in El Cajon. Photograph: Hayne Palmour IV/AP https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/28/police-killing-black-man-el-cajon-san-diego-protest
  12. The latest find on Jupiter’s moon Europa offers the potential to really look for life. It’s not time to shy away – and Nasa needs to rise to the challenge Wednesday 28 September 2016 12.20 BST By Stuart Clark Jupiter’s ice-covered moon, Europa. Photograph: HO/AP https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/28/discovery-water-jupiter-space-alien-life-europa
  13. Authorities say gunman was a disgruntled lawyer who had more than 2,500 rounds of ammunition on him when he injured nine people on Monday Associated Press in Houston Tuesday 27 September 2016 13.57 BST Alan Wakim shows his wife, Jennifer Molleda, where two bullets entered his windshield and went past his face. Photograph: Mark Mulligan/AP https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/27/houston-shooting-nazi-emblems
  14. The royal tour exposes the anachronism of Canada having the Queen as head of state. It’s a symbol of conquest, class and dominance that we need to ditch Tuesday 27 September 2016 11.36 BST By Jordan Tannahill https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/27/high-five-justin-trudeau-canada-monarchy-queen-william-kate-george
  15. Can the Republican be trusted with the nuclear codes? Why is the Democrat so secretive? These and other questions must be asked on Monday in New York Dan Roberts in Washington Saturday 24 September 2016 13.59 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/24/donald-trump-Hillarious-clinton-debate-awkward-questions
  16. By Peter W. Stevenson September 23 at 8:00 AM Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner. And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win. The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are: Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, sat down with The Fix this week to reveal who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity. THE FIX: Can you tell me about the keys, and how you use them to evaluate the election from the point where — I assume it's very murky a year or two out, and they start to crystallize over the course of the election. LICHTMAN: "The Keys to the White House" is a historically based prediction system. I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012. The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years. So people who hear just the surface-level argument there might say, well, President Obama has a 58 percent approval rating, doesn't that mean the Democrats are a shoo-in? Why is that wrong? It absolutely does not mean the Democrats are a shoo-in. First of all, one of my keys is whether or not the sitting president is running for reelection, and right away, they are down that key. Another one of my keys is whether or not the candidate of the White House party is, like Obama was in 2008, charismatic. Hillar.y Clinton doesn't fit the bill. The keys have nothing to do with presidential approval polls or horse-race polls, with one exception, and that is to assess the possibility of a significant third-party campaign. What about Donald Trump on the other side? He's not affiliated with the sitting party, but has his campaign been an enigma in terms of your ability to assess this election? Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860. We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillar.y Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it. We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November? Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys. Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed. Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running. Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act. Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success. And Key number 12, Hillar.y Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt. One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats. So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor. So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way. Nobody should be complacent, no matter who you're for, you gotta get out and vote. Do you think the fact that Trump is not a traditional Republican — certainly not an establishment Republican, from a rhetorical or policy perspective — contributes to that uncertainty over where he fits in with the standard methodology for evaluating the Keys? I think the fact that he's a bit of a maverick, and nobody knows where he stands on policy, because he's constantly shifting. I defy anyone to say what his immigration policy is, what his policy is on banning Muslims, or whoever, from entering the United States, that's certainly a factor. But it's more his history in Trump University, the Trump Institute, his bankruptcies, the charitable foundation, of enriching himself at the expense of others, and all of the lies and dangerous things he's said in this campaign, that could make him a precedent-shattering candidate. It's interesting, I don't use the polls, as I've just explained, but the polls have very recently tightened. Clinton is less ahead than she was before, but it's not because Trump is rising, it's because Clinton is falling. He's still around 39 percent in the polls. You can't win if you can't crack 40 percent. As people realize the choice is not Gary Johnson, the only choice is between Trump and Clinton, those Gary Johnson supporters may move away from Johnson and toward Clinton, particularly those millennials. And, you know, I've seen this movie before. My first vote was in 1968, when I was the equivalent of a millennial, and lots of my friends, very liberal, wouldn't vote for Hubert Humphrey because he was part of the Democratic establishment, and guess what? They elected Richard Nixon. And, of course, as I have said for over 30 years, predictions are not endorsements. My prediction is based off a scientific system. It does not necessarily represent, in any way, shape or form, an Allan Lichtman or American University endorsement of any candidate. And of course, as a successful forecaster, I've predicted in almost equal measure both Republican and Democratic victories. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/
  17. Second night of unrest rocks the city following the fatal police shooting of Keith Scott, a black man Matthew Teague in Charlotte, North Carolina Thursday 22 September 2016 14.10 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/22/charlotte-protests-north-carolina-governor-declares-state-of-emergency
  18. The difference in reactions to the deadly shootings in Tulsa and Charlotte has been striking – and can probably be attributed to the way in which police have handled the release of footage Jon Swaine in New York Thursday 22 September 2016 18.57 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/22/terence-crutcher-keith-scott-police-video-bodycams-evidence
  19. Letter from six-year-old Alex of Scarsdale, New York, asking for Syrian child to be resettled in his home, is praised by Obama at the United Nations Nicole Puglise Thursday 22 September 2016 16.57 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/22/obama-letter-alex-syrian-refugee-child
  20. Kathy Miller called the Black Lives Matter movement ‘a stupid waste of time’ and said low African American voter turnout could be due to ‘the way they’re raised’ Paul Lewis and Tom Silverstone in Youngstown, Ohio Thursday 22 September 2016 12.00 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/22/trump-ohio-campaign-chair-no-racism-before-obama
  21. Scott, 43, was shot and killed by Charlotte-Mecklenburg officer Brentley Vinson in the North Carolina city after being mistaken for a wanted man Jamiles Lartey in St Louis and agencies Wednesday 21 September 2016 13.10 BST Protesters demonstrate in front of police officers wearing riot gear after police fatally shot Keith Lamont Scott in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photograph: Reuters https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/21/protesters-clash-with-police-in-charlotte-after-fatal-shooting-of-black-man
  22. Data shows thefts of firearms from vehicles are rising in many large cities. One gun swiped from a truck in Atlanta was used in three crimes, including murder Brian Freskos, the Trace, in Atlanta, Georgia Wednesday 21 September 2016 12.30 BST The Atlanta police department’s vault contains about 7,000 guns recovered at crime scenes. Many of them are believed to have been stolen. Photograph: Dustin Chambers/The Trace https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/21/gun-theft-us-firearm-survey
  23. Red Cross president says attack on UN and Red Crescent convoy delivering supplies is unacceptable violation of international law Haroon Siddique, Julian Borger and agencies Tuesday 20 September 2016 14.57 BST https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/20/un-suspends-all-aid-convoy-movements-in-syria-after-airstrike
  24. Christie says Trump’s early labelling of blast as ‘bomb’ was ‘appropriate’ Kaine: aftermath is ‘important time where you have to have experience’ Alan Yuhas Monday 19 September 2016 07.11 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/18/clinton-trump-new-york-bombing
  25. An email from the Republican’s team claims he helped ‘bring closure to the issue first raised by Hillar.y Clinton’ – but still no words from Trump himself Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui in Washington Friday 16 September 2016 10.11 BST https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/16/donald-trump-campaign-admits-barack-obama-was-born-in-us
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