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CNN. Broadcasting Tlar's Excuse Making And Recital Of All The Sites He's Been Banned From While A Guy Named Mike Holds His Feet To The Fire - Way To Go Mikey ! Tlar: IS INTEL ANY GOOD? When I first started getting intel I was skeptical. It was when I knew for sure Mahdi was a shoe in to be PM. He was in the news daily as they too had focused on him as the front runner. Then came the intel that Abadi would be the new PM. Abadi, I had thought as an important member of Dawa, was a Maliki supporter. I discounted the intel thinking it was foolish. Abadi had not even been in the news as a candidate at that time. I stuck with Mahdi and to my surprise Abadi surfaced ultimately as the front runner and then became the new PM. If you read my posts from this period I stuck with Mahdi almost until the end. Abadi to me came out of nowhere. He wasn't even a dark horse to me as I could not fathom that he, a DAWA member being elected PM. So is intel always wrong? We know this situation is fluid. Intel can change at any time based on the facts on the ground. ~~~ I stopped putting out the intel I was receiving because it was never 100% accurate 100% of the time, especially on Iraq's currency reform. I can't speak for Randy but I would bet he has pretty much experienced the bashing that I took. As I look back through the history of this investment no one has been right and all intel could be chalked up as crap, including intel from the CBI. Many targets have come and gone. Shabibi stated at the beginning of 2010 that Iraq would redenominate its currency by the end of 2010. I would call that definite intel as it came from the horse’s mouth itself. We know it didn't happen. Is Shabibi a liar? Shabibi said at the beginning of 2012 that he would release the new smalls by Sept 1st. It did not happen as we know. Does this mean that he should now be discredited and no we longer want to hear his dribble? Shabibi said at the end of 2012 that he was going to release the currency at 1166 and let the market decide. Does that make Kap guru of the year with his float theory or again further discredit anything coming from Shabibi who by now is a known liar who has mislead us all the way along whether intentional or not? This is a fluid situation and even the people running it, making the plans must sometimes bow to the pressures of what's happening today or are influenced by what happens tomorrow.. In other words conditions change every day in Iraq. A plan is what they want to do but plans can change on a dime based on current events. So is intel worth anything? According to those that like to bash anyone who brings intel, who lay in wait until that intel doesn't pan out, IMO they lessen this experience for everyone else. Intel is an adult only resource and not for children. tlar G-Lin GM all. And Tlar you are so correct about arts. being intel. I have had more disappointments with the arts. than I have ever had with intel. When you read, and from many sources, that they are going to delete the zeros and add value to their currency { all said by CBI] in the beginning of the new year, and then they tell you they decided to wait, and this happens year after year, you tend to disbelieve the arts. I'm definitely an art. driven person, but sometimes I enjoy a good ole piece of intel. Thinking back on the education we have all acquired, how could they have rv'd being under Chap. 7? I remember all the arguments about the need be out of Chap. 7 before this could happen and so many said oh no they don't. LOL. I'm beginning to think that they can rv anytime they want to. It is strictly up to CBI with guidance from IMF, World Bank, WTO. No one will tell them when they can rv. There are a few things I'm looking for these days and Art. XIII is NOT one of them. Security and stability coupled with a basket of laws for investors to open the doors for infrastruture. That could occur rather rapidly. We just don't know and we never will know the date or rate until it happens. So Tlar, as far as I'm concerned bring on the intel. Heck it cannot be worse than the arts. All JMO High-Five: Bring on the Intel!!! I'm an adult Tlar you expressed very well what I think about intel. I'm learning a lot through this adventure, most notably that intel does not always happen as planned, just as the info in articles doesn't always happen as planned. I read articles with the same mind set as I have with intel - - which is waiting to see if what is written/said will actually happen. One main difference between the two is that intel, by necessity, will not site a source. Intel is on the low down and not meant to be public like articles are. So, there is an important trust factor with intel. That is why I am very selective as to who I accept intel from. I believe Tlar and Randy are discerning and wise, as they must be aware that disinformation can be spread through intel, just as disinformation can be spread through articles. I trust Tlar and Randy, and I would love to be in their intel loop. I would love to know if Tlar has heard anything more regarding the attempt by Abadi's trusted adviser to postpone the currency reform. From the articles, there appears to be two, Najif (sp)and Saleh, who are wanting to wait. I'd love an update on that, if there is one. Thanks for hanging in there with us, Tlar. It's good to see you this morning! Mike: Thanks, for posting, Tlar, I'm hoping you can help me with a couple questions. In your post you said: "Shabibi stated at the beginning of 2010 that Iraq would redinominate its currency by the end of 2010." I looked on several dinar sites and finally Googled " shabibi states dinar will redenominate in 2010 " and found a thread very similiar to ours on DinarVets, asking for a link or anything showing that Shabibi made these statements. See the below link. Do you have a link showing where Shabibi made those statements? http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/42951-backward-from-shabibi/ ; Next question, you mentioned: "Shabibi said at the beginning of 2012 that he would release the new smalls by Sept 1st." Again, I looked through the same three sites and couldn't find anything where Shabibi made those statements, I'm hoping that you have a link or an article somewhere that has that as well. I did find an article on the IQD team website that talked about beginning the process of change necessary to remove the 000's in September of 2012 but nothing related to releasing the smalls in September. Here's the link. http://www.iraqhurr.org/content/article/24511396.html I'm really hoping you can help me, I've always thought of Shabibi as one the only honest ones in Iraq, and while he's evasive, I've never known him to be an outright liar. Frankly, I don't count Shabibi or any other known, printed source as intel because there's nothing hidden or secrative about it, the information has a source and is printed or distributed through a media source. Could they be wrong? Sure, we get lots of conflicting information from the media, nothing is ever 100% right. Things change, the ebb and flow of politics effects everything, but eventually, the truth always seem to come out. Whereas with intel, it's never been right, as far as I know. I've asked the board many times for an example of when intel has been right, even once, and come up with nothing. At least with the news, some of it's right some of the time. Intel is nothing like the articles. No one's bashing anyone, we're simply looking for the truth. The only bashing comes when folks have made statements about intel, they're called childish, they're accused of personal attacks, shamed for even asking questions and then told that intel is for adults, not children. Really? It got so bad at one time that the mod's felt it was necessary to shut the site down for a week and post a statement on the landing page saying if you post intel, be prepared for questions. It's not the one's questioning the intel that's doing the bashing, this thread is a testament to that. I mostly agree with G-lin, post the intel when you want, no one's stopping you. But can you at least answer a couple questions like the one's posted above? We discuss, debate and speculate about all the information on this site, is intel above questioning? Are we to take it for face value with no link or validation? We've seen what's happened to the other sites that are riddled with intel, they've lost credibility. In fact, there are several here that specifically ban those sites from posting their stuff on their websites, because it's often misquoted or only parts of their statements are used out of context. another site isn't one of those sites. I don't want to see CC devolve into another one of those sites that we ridicule and laugh at because of the content. I'm looking forward to learning more about what Shabibi said in 2010 and 2012, thanks in advance for your help. " We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid " Benjamin Franklin Brule: Mike, did you check the Memory Lane thread? It covers 2010 thru 2012 of Shabibi and other dinar articles. Mike: Thanks, Brule, I did find two articles that Shabibi stated the new currency would be released in 2013 as part of the process of deleting the three zero's, and that he needed laws and government support. Shabibi knew then, as we all do, that the CBI couldn't act unilaterally and that he needed the GOI involved to complete the process. The articles all spoke to how the CBI is ready and that all steps were completed that were necessary to raise the value of the dinar. No mention of redenomination in 2010 or the lower denom's in September of 2012. rissas dad: Oh the joy of the dinar. As someone who started out as most have, in the intel-sewer until I realized what I was walking in may I say this: from my view there is no shortage of lies and bad information. I dont care where you look, super-secret intel or articles. Articles are right more often, and why? Because they are written after the fact most of the time. Easy to be right when one is writing on what has already happened. Whenever articles talk about what is going to happen, well thats another story all together. The words "soon" and "will" and "called for" are all too familiar to us as being wishful thinking most of the time. Sure those things do eventually happen but the vast majority its WAY past the indicated time. I think we would all agree that Shabibi is one of the few whom we consider a reliable source but his timelines have come and gone as well, due to no apparent fault of his. He isnt going to say things that we want to hear anyway. He has said things that educated saavy folks have tried to take and extrapolate a possible time that a change may be made but its just educated guessing. So thats what we have. At best speculative vague statements taken directly from somewhat reliable officials, at worst guru-bullcrap made up and repeated over and over again until its taken as truth (guru-lore) created to make those liars money. In between there are articles that are crap because the source is just wrong or the opinion is paid for (see Maliki) and sort of accurate articles because it takes much longer than stated or articles that are correct because its already happened. Then theres us. The non-gurus who take information and apply our own reasoning and experience and try to figure out whats going on and are happy to tell others when we were right and doubly happy to when we were wrong (myself included). Among those are the article-gurus who we dont consider as gurus because they base there opinions on articles. Those articles that I earlier stated are always right. Not. But they are more right than anything else we have to look at. Which sucks in itself. But its the best that we have. Fun, ain't it!!! Mike: ol, good post RD. For me, here's where the articles give us a little more than the guru's. Last month, we heard from many that the budget was done and they were just waiting on the 1st of the year. Plenty of articles were telling us the budget wasn't done yet, that they were going to meet and discuss it and vote on it sometime in January. So, we know now, from the articles, the budget hasn't passed yet, and we know they're still working on it. We heard from guru's that Article 140 was done. The articles we read told us, no, they're going to address sometime in 2015 and get it put to bed. We also heard in 2014 that the HCL was done. The articles are now telling us that HCL isn't done, that they're still working on it. I could go on but, hopefully, you get my point. No, the budget, Article 140 and HCL aren't done yet, and it's the articles that tell us they're not. I've lost count how many times the guru's have told us, through their contacts, that all that and more were done. We find out a ton of stuff as it's happening, before it's completed, through the media. Look at how many articles are telling us what's going on with the budget. Yes, some are telling us that the budget will fly through Parliament while there are others telling us their might be some opposition. The articles will tell us when the budget is passed, and we'll watch it unfold through the media. It's the same for almost everything that's happening in Iraq. I can remember when there were folks saying ISIL was made up by the media to create a cover, now we know, from the articles, that ISIL is in fact a pain in the a$$ for Iraq and that they are very much in Mosul trying to establish their fantasy caliphate. You're right about the guru lore as well, RD, that's why I asked for links about the Shabibi statements. I've learned that forming suppostions on intel was flawed from the start, accurate speculation, reasoning and expectations are always going to be wrong when the information you're receiving is wrong. Maybe AA has it right, linear thinking doesn't compute when using intel, it's fine for lateral thinking, but I'm looking for the end of the ride, I don't have the energy for all the rest. Here's a cool link explaining AA's idea. www.andyeklund.com/is-linear-thinking-bad/ Tlar: Mike I will not be able to find you a specific article on 2010. But the reality that XE.com carried the banner "Iraq plans to redenominate their currency by the end of 2010" all through 2010, should help answer you question. We must assume that XE.COM a FOREX site, either made this up out of thin air or it was told to them by the CBI. If it was told to them by the CBI then assume that Shabibi would have either approved it or been the one to say it. So by reason or logic we can assume that Shabibi was on board to reden9ominate the currency by the end of 2010 even if you can't find an article that specifically states this. As far a releasing the smalls in Sept of 2012 which Shabibi had said he was going to do, that is common knowledge. I will stand by this statement and I'm sure that if you do enough research you will find an article to support this. The sequence was first he said he would contract the currency printing around the first part of 2012. Then he submitted the art work for the currency to parliament. After approval by parliament on design he stated next that he had contracted with two companies to print the currency and coins. We feel comfortable de la Rue got the contract to print the currency and a german company got the contract to print the coins. About two months after the contracts were let an article came out that stated that the street in front of the CBI was closed and under heavy security as an armored cars and trucks made deliveries to the CBI. I think this was the currency because I received a call from a member of DA that his son who worked for de la Rue had reported to him of seeing many covered pallets earmarked for Iraq just days before they closed the street in front of the CBI. He then reported to his dad the pallets were gone. Then he said he would release the smalls by Sept 2012. As Sept came and went with no release he stated he was going to just release the currency at 1166 whether the government was on board or not and let the market decide its value indicating that the Maliki government would not support the plan. Shabibi was removed as we all know. Anyone wishing to research these facts are welcome to do so. I don't want to spend the time and don't have the access.. This is the way I remember the facts and anyone who was around at this time should also remember this but nobody likes a good challenge more than me. I would welcome another look see by anyone. I can't be the one to research it as this is the only site I visit anymore. I have been banned from Dinar-speculator, dinar vets, Meds site and DA for my thoughts on this subject the dinar. Maybe that to is as it should be. Tlar Mally: Im almost certain it was Saleh who was doing the talking that caused xe.com to put up that disclaimer. It might of even been the day after that article I posted a few days ago from radio free Iraq. It was an interview from feb 2010 I think. I remember Saleh was doing a lot of talking in 2010. But tlar is right that saleh was shabibis right hand man at the cbi and no retraction on his statements was ever mentioned by the cbi or Shabibi. I assume Saleh was only doing what he was told. We can all only be in charge or our own emotions. I like to hear all the info, I even consume **************** and another site info just to keep me regular Personally the biggest let down Ive had recently was following the news in December. RD is right that the news has been lousy at predicting things, only better when its after the fact. Mike: You're right, Mally, Salah made several statements in early 2010 about currency reform, but Shabibi didn't say Iraq would redenominate in 2010 or that he would release the smalls in 2012. Why would Shabibi contact xe.com and tell them, in advance, that Iraq was going to redenominate? And yes, Iraq was moving towards releasing the new currency in conjunction with the removing the zero's project, but Shabibi wouldn't forcast a change in the value of the dinar by announcing he would release the LD's in September. I've done the research. Has anyone else been able to find these articles? It's just more myth and lore. Frank: TLAR - I think that everyone who has invested in the IQD believes that the exchange rate is going to ultimately increase from the current defacto rate to a rate that is article 8 compliant. The most meaningful question regarding this happening is the process by which it happens. This process will dictate whether we may lose a little or make a ton. If you can elaborate on this process, supported by articles from Iraqi authorities - like Shabibi, Saleh, etc. - for me, at least, this would be very much appreciated