Enorrste

mitmoo - this "plan" started in 2005 and was mentioned in 2006 and 2008 already. I posted those links in my book and again recently here. The most recent article from Radio Free Iraq interviewing Salih is just an expansion on the "plan" that has been evolving since those early days. kaperoni - there is a slim possibility that the "plan" would be initiated on April 1 by Iraq, since that is the date by which it has to be put in place. However, COFE has also been instructed to audit the "plan" and report to the UNSC on the progress of the plan by April 1. Finally, we have already seen that the plan has been evolving since 2005 as noted just above. Therefore we can safely conclude the following: (1) the plan already exists, so it need not "start" on April 1; (2) Iraq has already announced the "meat and potatoes" of the plan, so to do so again on April 1 would be redundant; (3) COFE would not have anything to report on April 1 if the "plan" is not initiated until then. Therefore it is my considered opinion that the "kickoff" of the "plan" must be imminent. Squaredaway - We learned from a previous article that there is a process involved that includes the RV first, AND THEN by the end of the year the removal of the large denom notes. Therefore they cannot place the horse behind the cart. The RV must occur first, and then time must be given to draw in the large notes. This was specifically stated to be the "process" in articles that I have already posted. Finally, regarding the imminence of the RV, as I just noted above to kaperoni, it is my opinion that they will do this very soon and most likely before the elections. I have said that because of the powerful push that Maliki will receive if he acts prior to the election. In addition I added that by doing so as early as this weekend then COFE will have something to audit for its April 1 meeting at the UN. At this point we are only a little over 2 weeks from the election and 5 weeks from April 1. Time is running out. If, on the off chance that they wait until April 1, there will be the problems that I just noted to kaperoni above. I cannot see this happening. Incidentally, before chat tonight I will be posting an additional document on the connection between the IAMB and COFE and the specific regulations that are being applied from the IAMB "playbook" to allow COFE to audit the RV as opposed to its normal function of auditing DFI disbursements from oil revenues. Steve

http://www.cofe-iq.net/pages/e_home.htm (I am posting some reference documents for you all) In accordance with the Council of Ministers decree, issued in October 2006, the Committee of Financial Experts was established and inaugurated its work on April 1, 2007, in order to be an oversight body that replaces the International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB), which currently supervises the expenditures of the Iraqi public funds, due to production and export of crude oil and its products, deposited in an account at Federal Reserve Bank in New York, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolutions issued after overthrowing Iraqi former regime, under the name of Development Fund for Iraq (DFI). This account has been given an international immunity to preserve it from being a subject of seizure or confiscation as result international court's sentence due to claims and demands against former regime. COFE consist of three active (original) members including its chair that is in the same time the president of Board of Supreme Audit (BSA), while the other two members are independent financial experts with large experience in financial and accounting area. The committee includes another two member's work as advisors to COFE. COFE is financially and morally independent to avoid any pressure that could affect its independency. COFE will work on publishing all issues related to public funds expenditures done by all states ministries and departments, ensuring proper expending of Iraqi resources in cooperation with people every where through their opinions and objective comments that could develop its performance

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/bc/eng/index.asp Iraq Begins Participation in the IMF

I will also repeat here briefly what this article has told us: Iraq has announced that sometime during the next several months but before the end of this year all large denomination notes will be removed from their currency. In their place will be smaller denomination notes. The purpose for doing this is to make it easier for the people to do transactions and for them to carry LESS money. Both will remain legal tender throughout this process, so there is no lop, period. If there were to be a lop, one currency would become void and would be replaced with the other. Instead, the large denominations will be phased out over the next several months but will remain legal tender. In order for stated purpose number 2 above to work, there MUST be a revaluation of the IQD. This is the plain sense of statement number 2. If there were not a revaluation, then the people would be carrying MORE money, not less! Therefore we see that the RV has now been announced publically and that it will occur shortly. Iraq has furthermore stated that it is ready for this move now and is prepared to draw in the large denomination notes over up to 10 months. Now we are able to place this information into context with the discussion that we started at the beginning of this post. Recall above that the UN made the requirement to Iraq as follows: “4. Calls upon the Government of Iraq to put in place the necessary action plan and timeline by 1 April 2010 and to ensure the timely and effective transition to a post-Development Fund mechanism by 31 December 2010.” Now we see that the plan announced by the CBI on February 6 is the very “action plan and timeline” that the UN has required in the paragraph above! Furthermore, we see that Iraq has complied with the UN requirement prior to the April 1 deadline imposed by the UN. We also see that the “redenomination” announced this month by the CBI also complies with the UN requirement for a “timely and effective transition” out of the DFI by the end of this year. Finally, we now can place the redenomination and removal of the large notes by the end of this year into context with the UN requirements and see that the redenomination “action plan” is intended to comply with the UN requirements exactly. We are now in a position to discuss Chapter 7 and the revaluation of the IQD and how they may be related to each other. First, we need to note that Chapter 7 and the RV are intimately related to each other and cannot stand alone. I believe that I am the first person to state this unequivically. I can do so based on the information posted just above. Put more succinctly, the RV is a “condition” (action plan) placed on Iraq by the UN to facilitate removal from Chapter 7. Therefore we can conclude with absolute assurance that the RV MUST occur prior to release from Chapter 7. We can do this because we know that the “action plan” and “effective transition” IS the RV and redenomination as stated by the CBI on February 6, and that both are part of the conditions necessary BEFORE Chapter 7 will be removed. You all may recall that I said during the last several weeks that what Iraq would need is the “assurance” that they would get released in order for them to do the RV. We see now that this “assurance” has in fact been given and that it is also a “condition” that the RV must occur in order for Maliki to get out from Chapter 7. We can now safely dispense with any further discussion of Chapter 7 since our interest is in our investment and the RV. The RV is a necessary precursor to the release from Chapter 7, therefore making Chapter 7 inconsequential to our investment objective. I believe that I am also the first person to have made this determination and to have laid it out clearly for all to digest. We are now in a position to ask the most important question of all: When will the RV take place? Based upon the analysis I have provided above, and the fact that the RV is an integral part of the “necessary” actions that need to be taken by Iraq to gain release from Chapter 7, we can conclude with assurance that the RV is the next step to be taken by the GOI. You will rightly ask, “How can you conclude that with such assurance?” The answer is to be found in the paragraphs above: the RV is the “action plan” required from the UN! Finally, we can also conclude that the RV will take place in short order. How, you ask? The answer is to be found in the actions of Maliki himself. He has been pushing and shoving the UN for nearly a year now to get out from Chapter 7. His “action plan” is a part of that process of pushing and shoving. And the “implementation” of that action plan, namely the RV, is the next step toward getting removal from Chapter 7. In conclusion, then, we see that rather than the RV being the “carrot” that Maliki has been holding out to the UN to get release from Chapter 7, it is in fact a significant element in the “action plan” that he is REQUIRED to perform before the end of this year to gain release from Chapter 7. We may now rest assured that the RV will occur in the very near future. In my opinion it will still happen before the election. This is politically expedient for Maliki, to say the least. But if it does not occur before the election it will certainly have to occur immediately after the election since Maliki will want to have his “action plan” (the RV) in place PRIOR to Ban Ki-Moon’s quarterly report to the UN on April 1. Special thanks goes to Sandy040 for asking a very relevant question: “Can someone explain section 4?” Her question led me to investigate this section rather than pooh pooh it as an “old article”. Thank you, Sandy! Steve

Here is what I sent by email to many of you and now reveal to all. Thanks to 98knight for passing it along. I only wish that the attribution to me had come along with it. How it did not I do not know but I do know that the person who brought it over here realized the error and attempted to correct it within the thread. Enough on that. Analysis of

Please go to the Rumors Section where I have posted under my own name the response to this article and the "final" statement on dispensing with L O P discussion. The post includes articles in which Zubaidi, the head of the Ministry of Finance, recommended to Shabbibi back in 2006 that the removal of large denom notes AND raising of the value of the IQD be undertaken. Then, in 2009 I have posted an article in which Salih himself of the CBI says that the "plan" under discussion will raise the value of the IQD. Therefore we have 3 people who are official and "in the know" who have revealed that Iraq will raise the value of the IQD in the near future and that this is a plan that has been in process for several years now. This should end this discussion once and for all. For those who still like to talk L O P, I would appeal to you to bring to the surface ANY documentation to support your case. Otherwise, let's let the government and CBI officials speak for themselves on this matter, OK? Steve

outback7, as you know I answered your question on chat tonight but I thought I ought to repeat the answer here for you in a clearer fashion so that all will understand this item. Recall that Resolution 1905 of the UN was written in response to Maliki's appeal to extend the DFI until the end of this year. In his letter he specifically indicated that "at the end of 2009 or in 2010" he would "bring Iraq into the international financial community". Forgive me if the quotes aren't exact; I am writing this from memory. In any case I presented in my analysis the view that this was an indication of his determination to RV within that time frame. This letter, incidentally, falls in line with the UN's previous September resolution in which they indicated that sometime before Iraq's dues were coming up in 2010 they would ensure that the IQD gained in value. So Maliki was riding on the coattails of the UN's desires, if you will. Then resolution 1905 made the request that COFE should audit the "action plan" of Iraq as well as determine the affectiveness of its efforts to be able to get out from under the DFI by the end of this year. COFE was required to present a report quarterly on Iraq's "action plan" starting with a first report on April 1 of this year. Now, we know that one month later the CBI announced a "plan" that had in fact been in the works since at least 2006 and probably since 2005. That "plan" included raising the value of the IQD (I prove this incidentally in another post here today from the CBI itself), and also removing the large denominated notes by 12/31/2010. Now interestingly Salih in making this announcement on 2/6/2010 used the date 12/31/2010 for the removal of the large denom notes. This is the same date that was "required" in Resolution 1905. Finally, we have to ask ourselves if Iraq has announced any other plans to date that could fulfill this requirement, and, of course, the answer is that they have NOT. Therefore we look to the "plan" announced by the CBI to be the same as the "action plan" required of the UN. If another plan surfaces in the next few days or within a week or so then I will be shown to be incorrect. However, whatever "plan" is the real "plan", it needs to either have already been announced, as I believe, or be announced soon, since COFE has to have a "plan" in place to audit by April 1. Therefore it is my considered opinion that the "action plan" is that same "plan" that Salih announced on 2/6/2010. Now if you will all go to my new thread I will show you how this plan has to be an increase in the value of the IQD and is NOT a L O P. Steve

Torey, I couldn't help stepping in here. I will re-paste a portion of what you just posted for ease of access: U.S. Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and the Iraqi economy, the ministry’s intention to delete the zeroes from the national currency of Iraq, adding that the Iraqi economy, do not complain about inflation, there is no need for the implementation of this strategy. The Prophet told Fadel Kurdistan News (AKnews) that “the process of deleting the zeroes of the Iraqi currency has no economic gain, and any positive impact on the purchasing power of the process of Iraq, but will also create other problems, to issue coins of small denominations such as” 10 money “and “50″ penny quarter of a dinar and a half dinars. ” Now, as you can see I am not the only person who says that a Lop is not appropriate. Apparently this undersecretary has looked into the matter and agrees that a lop is not appropriate as well. I'm actually surprised that you posted this article from today, since it runs counter to what you have been arguing in this thread. Steve

rt59, as I promised earlier on chat here is my response to you. You wrote this: "Enorrste, the only way to draw them (IQD) in to eliminate them is to make them worth something, ie an RV. That is the easy part, paying for them is the hard part. You say people (in country) or governments (out of country) will put money into banks or hold in federal reserve. That is fine, but backed by what?" Now, since you are paraphrasing my own words in most of this there is obviously nothing that I can disagree with in it! So I will just deal with your question at the end. Your question is this: what is backing the RV? In order to answer this question we must first ask if it is a legitimate question, and the answer is that it is in fact NOT a legitimate question. I can say this with ample authority, since RVs have occurred throughout recent history with no proof whatsoever that the country doing it could afford it. In fact, and more to the point, there is absolutely no way to quantify the question. If you know of one and can apply it to any country in the world, I would welcome that. The reality is that even the IMF itself has trouble deciding what value to place on any currency in the world. Admittedly they use a lot of "models" and "theories" and probably a huge database of various sorts of "figuring", but in the end the number that they come up with has nothing to do with what you have suggested in your post. The bottom line is this: the reserves of a country have very little to do with whether or not they can afford to RV. Admittedly, they are a factor, but they are only one factor, and almost certainly not the most important factor. The IMF has stated in its own position papers that its goal is to evaluate countries in the world based on their "inherent wealth", whether in natural resources, manufacturing, tourism, or even "good will". I have never seen the IMF use currency reserves as one of these factors, although obviously it is among the many factors in the long list that determines a country's inherent wealth. Now, if we were to even attempt to try to figure out what is "backing" the RV, we would only be able to do so in a general sense. I have written two chapters to attempt to give a comparison that would show that Iraq is in position to afford the RV. In this latest chapter I added the reserves as another element in that view, but not the only element. Here I will add a few more elements, none of which is sufficient to "quantify" the "backing" but when taken with other factors, and all eventually, you will get the picture. First, MM17 reported today that the EU is sitting on about 280 tons of gold that belongs to Iraq. That would be a nice place to start, and I see no reason why that gold cannot be considered in this situation since it has to be returned to Iraq in time, and definitely after Chapter 7 is released. Next, and most important in my opinion, is the known reserves of oil and natural gas in Iraq, currently estimated conservatively at second highest in the entire world. Whether this is a "realized" reserve or a "potential" reserve is moot, just as the "full faith and credit" is only "potential" and not "realized", thankfully. Next, Iraq has let out contract to build its tourism in a grand way. As an example, it recently let out a contract to turn Babylon into one of the biggest tourist sites in the world, on a par with the great pyramids. The site will have a 7000 acres international airport. The US Corps of Engineers will help restore the archaelogical site for tourists. Hotels and spas will surround the ancient site. Next, contracts to rebuild the remainder of Iraq have been signed. I will only mention one: in Najaf they are planning to build 135,000 residences, a university, shopping centers, and on and on. This underlying wealth of Iraq is almost certainly the single biggest factor that the IMF would consider when determining a fair RV rate for the IQD. We have read that the IMF is recommending $1.49, but I cannot verify that. Still, it is an interesting number and has floated around for months. How do think that number came up? In summary, the question you ask is not appropriate. There is no way to quantify an answer. But there is a way to "see" what is obvious, and that is that Iraq, of all countries in the world, is better poised to afford an RV than any other country in the world. And that is NOT an understatement. The most obvious comparison to Iraq is Kuwait, whose dinar is at about $3.90 now. They have much less oil in reserve, are substantially smaller, and have no water. I submit that water will become as big a "money winner" for Iraq as oil is now. Just think on that a bit. Two large rivers run through this desert. Kuwait has none, Saudi Arabia has none, and on and on. I think if I go on I will lose the audience. I submit that my case is made. Steve

Afarns, you wrote this: Actually, my objection was to your statement "the large denominated notes will be drawn in and eliminated" in reference to them naturally being drawn in as a result of cashing in after an RV. I obviously understand and read that the 3 zero notes will be taken out of circulation and new notes without the 3 zeros will replace them. Hence the lop idea. Afarns, for the life of me I cannot understand what you wrote in response to my answer to you. I have a suggestion: state clearly what you mean and I will deal with it. You need not be cryptic anymore. I have admitted already that I do not understand you. If that is my weakness, so be it. But I suspect no one else knows what you were trying to say either. So I recommend you just say it, clearly, OK?

Scooter, you are clearly starting to think along reasonable timelines. Unfortunately you move very quickly from one speculation to the next. And you have a lot of variables. However, we are at a point where the amount of good information is sparse. I believe you are onto something with respect to Chapter 7 and Maliki needing release. I have written of this before. Unless and Until the UN allows him his freedom or an assurance of the imminence of that freedom, he can do nothing. Whether he will receive that by the 2/16 meeting or at that meeting is open to question. However, I believe that many variables are coming to a head, so to speak a the "apex" of the election, and are being backed up by that future event. In short, I believe that whatever is going to happen will happen very soon; otherwise the "opportunity window" for Maliki will close and he may indeed lost the election. I do not believe the UN and IMF or the US want Maliki to lose. I believe he is a "good soldier". But he is running up against machinery that is large, entrenched, and which has its own agenda as well, and getting that machine to move his direction is his big challenge. If he does not accomplish this by the 12th I think we will have to wait until after the election and cross our fingers. Steve

Afarns: you wrote the following: "I have yet to see anything where the government has said that the large notes would be drawn in and eliminated." In response, here is the quote, found within this very chapter and within the article discussed.

Afarns and War Eagle: You seem to have forgotten one thing: the large denominated notes will be drawn in and eliminated. Therefore the total money supply in circulation will fall dramatically, since most people will leave their money in the banks (in-country) and the foreigners will turn theirs into the federal reserves of those countries, thereby taking the large denominated bills out of circulation. We can reasonably project that all dinars outside of Iraq will be eliminated over time. Within the country, assuming a 1000 fold increase in the value of the dinar, the locals will hold 1/1000 th of that amount in cash in their pockets, the remainder staying in the banks, where it will be turned into deposits (not considered dinars "in circulation"). In other words the value of 999/1000 ths of the large denoms in country will also disappear. This should easily solve the question raised by you.

How long until this takes place? We are now in a position to talk about timing. We have two factors to consider. The first is the RV itself, and the second is the removal of the large denominated notes. Taking the second item first we see that the timing has already been given us: the large denominated notes will be withdrawn gradually throughout the remainder of this year. Regarding the timing of the RV itself we can use our reasoning powers to deduce a time frame. This is not difficult. Clearly the CBI, in making the announcement of its intent to do this, has opened the door to speculation from the world market. Therefore it is in its own best interest to complete the RV as soon as possible. Every day that it waits invites more and more speculators into the market. At some point the speculators could literally foul the RV play if the CBI did not act quickly. Therefore we can reasonably assert that the RV will take place within the next few days, and almost certainly before the 12th of February. The 12th of February is important because that is when campaigning will begin for the next election. Maliki would be foolish to revalue the currency during this period, since it would appear obvious that he is doing so for electoral support. Therefore, in my opinion, this is the outside date for the RV to occur, and most likely it will occur before that date.

Plans to Increase the Value of the Dinar Here is the next link: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.foratnews.com/paper.asp%3FID%3D8383&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1[Fact] And here is the article in its entirety: From Forat News Plan to increase the value of the dinar against the dollar and the deletion of three zeroes ”Finance Ministry has prepared a plan to increase the value of the dinar against the dollar and then delete the three zeroes from the dinar's value to contribute to the advancement of the Iraqi economy during the coming period with the Iraqi central bank denied the rumors making the dollar worth 1000 dinars and said in a statement issued by the Ministry of Finance:, the Minister Baqir Jabr said During his recent visit to the Jordanian capital Amman, said the CBI chagrin financially estimated $22 billion and three tons of gold intended to support the Iraqi dinar. He said that successful fiscal policy pursued in Iraq have contributed to increasing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, noting that the dollar exchange rate dropped significantly during the current year, stressing that all efforts will be channeled to the deletion of three zeros from the value of the dinar. “On the other hand denied the authoritative source in the Iraqi Central Bank rumors making the dollar worth 1000 dinars, or a change denominations or raise zeros from the current currency.” “He said in a press statement that the bank has been following with great interest the phenomenon of low demand for the dollar in the local exchange markets, stressing that such information or rumors surrounding the aim of achieving commercial gain emergency for some users at the expense of the public.” [Analysis] It has been claimed that the above article is an old article. Some thought it came from 2008. Others said it was first posted on 12/13/2009. The date at the top of the article changes everytime the page is refreshed, so that is not proof of its age. However, within the article itself we can see that it is a recent article. The last paragraph states that there is “low demand for the dollar in the local exchange markets.” This phenomenon has only occurred since the dollar was banned for local use. That ban was originally to have been in October of 2009 but was since pushed back to January of 2010. Therefore the article has to be from at least January, and probably February, since the “phenomenon of low demand for the dollar” is quite recent. Here is a link from January 30, 2010, in which this topic is discussed directly: http://www.blackanthem.com/News/Military_News_1/Iraqi-dinar-to-protect-Soldiers-stimulate-local-economy21736.shtml Therefore the “phenomenon” talked about in the article under discussion could only have occurred in the very recent past, leading me to suspect that the article is actually current and not dated at all. Let’s look at the portions of the article in red above and see what they tell us. In the first caption you will notice that I have put in bold the two words “and then”. We can see that the increase in the value of the dinar is juxtaposed to the removal of 3 zeros from the dinar. In addition, however, we see that the phrase “and then” tells us that the first must precede the second. In other words we now know that the two will not occur simultaneously. From the prior article we gleaned the same information, namely that the removal of the large denominated notes would occur over a period of time ending at the end of this year. Therefore, once again, we can see that this is not a typical lopping procedure but is instead a removal of large notes that will become superfluous or “unnecessary” in the normal course of business. Now in this same quote we finally see a clear statement from the Central Bank of Iraq itself that it intends to increase the value of the dinar. This is the first time we have seen a statement of intent put out so clearly by the CBI. In the next red quote we see that the CBI is receiving 3 tons of gold and $22 billion “intended to support the Iraqi dinar”. We can gain a tremendous insight from this little statement by asking a simple question: If it is the intention of the CBI to only remove 3 zeros from the dinar why do they need all of this money to support the dinar? The answer, of course, is that they wouldn’t. But more to the point, we see that they are bringing in these funds for the very PURPOSE of supporting the dinar. $22 billion and 3 tons of gold is a little over $23 billion today. In addition we read earlier here that Iraq also intended to raise its reserve funds to $42 billion to support the dinar. Therefore the total reserves of Iraq are now going to go to about $65 billion. At the current exchange rate that means that they have reserves of over 75 trillion dinars. We also see from the previous article that the total outstanding amount of dinars is only 25 trillion dinars. Therefore Iraq will have “in reserve” the equivalent of 3 times the total amount of dinars currently in the market. Almost all other countries in the world, including the United States, use a “fractional” reserve system in which they have, at most, about 10% reserves in foreign currencies for the amount of national currencies outstanding. Iraq, then, is in a position with this large reserve pool of foreign currencies and gold to raise the value of the IQD substantially in the near future. As I pointed out in the last chapter, we see again that Iraq can certainly afford a significant revaluation of its currency with this large reserve. In the next red section of the article above we see that ”all efforts will be channeled to the deletion of three zeros from the value of the dinar.” Once again I have emboldened the verb in this sentence to point out that it is in the future tense. Here we see that Iraq will be taking actions in the future, and not immediately, to remove these large denominated notes from the market. This is consistent with the first article above in this chapter in which it was stated that the process would proceed naturally until the end of this year. Now we come to the last part of the article. I will post the relevant quote again here for ease of access: “On the other hand denied the authoritative source in the Iraqi Central Bank rumors making the dollar worth 1000 dinars, or a change denominations or raise zeros from the current currency.” When this article came out I was surprised at how many people missed the intent of this statement. Many were worried that the increase in value would be only to 1000 to 1 for the dinar from the current 1170 to 1 for the dinar. However, on looking at the emboldened portion of the quote we can see that the CBI is actually DENYING the RUMORS that it would only revalue to 1000 to 1. What this means in simple English is that the CBI is denying that it is only lopping off zeros. We can verify that this is correct from the quote itself, in which it states “or a change denominations or raise zeros from the current currency.” In other words, the statement states that the denial applies to all three things in the quote: (1) rumors of making the dollar worth 1000 dinars, (2) or a change in denomination , (3) or raising zeros from the current currency. Can you see how the word “or” here links all three of these items to the denial. It is saying “not this, or that, or that.” Now this is extremely important because what it is saying is that the CBI is specifically denying a lopping of the “current currency”! We now have a definitive statement from the CBI of its intent to raise the value of the dinar, to support that raise in value with substantial reserves, and a denial that there will be a lopping of 3 zeros off the current currency. What that leaves us with is this: the RV will be substantial and will occur shortly (the timing comes from the need to act to avoid speculators from flooding the market). There will be a period of natural removal of the current currency as the new currency replaces it after the RV. The current currency will not be usable in the normal course of business because of the size of the notes. By the end of the year the notes will have been drawn into the banks and eliminated from the market. Most of the “value” of those large notes will remain in deposits at the bank. This will enable the banks to lend and will improve the economy through this process (this comes directly from the first article above). The end result will be a dramatic increase in the wealth of all Iraqis and a resurgence in the economy of Iraq at the same time.

11. Finally Iraq Makes a Committment As we get closer to the actual event of a revaluation of the dinar we should naturally expect the powers in Iraq to begin to lay out the plan to the people. In the next two links we see that they are beginning to do just that. Here is the first link: http://www.rferl.org/content/Iraq_Pl...n/1950504.html[Fact] And here is the full article, posted in the Radio Free Europe website:

That is exactly why the announcement of the RV will be made almost immediately.

News / From Our Bureaus Iraq Planning Currency Redenomination Iraqi dinars are stacked at a teller's window in a Najaf bank. February 06, 2010 BAGHDAD -- The Iraqi Central Bank is planning to redenominate the national currency in an effort to ease transactions and allow people to carry less paper money, RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq (RFI) reports. Mudhhir Muhammad Salih, a member of a Central Bank advisory panel, told RFI that a plan has been made to remove three zeros from the currency and phase out the current banknotes late this year. Salih said by the end of 2010 the new banknotes will be fully introduced while the old banknotes will be gradually removed from circulation. He did not specify when the new notes would be issued. Both will be legal tender in Iraq until the old notes are completely withdrawn. Iraqi officials have had a long-running plan to redenominate the Iraqi dinar. In 2006, the Finance Ministry recommended to the Central Bank that it carry out such a plan. Salih pointed out that banks are having a hard time accepting cash savings and deposits, but by dropping the zeros it will make it easier for both the banks to deal with their customers and for the general public to carry money. He said some 80 percent of Iraq's money supply is cash in circulation. Salih added that in 1990 the value of banknotes in circulation was about 25 billion Iraqi dinars but is currently some 25 trillion dinars. Economic analyst Hilal al-Tahhan told RFI that the bank's move is overdue. He said he expects the currency change to go smoothly because of the decision to allow both the old and new banknotes to coexist, leading to less turbulence in the economy. The current exchange rate is 1,167 Iraqi dinars to the U.S. dollar. It amazed me that people can read the news article and come away with such widely variant views. There is an old saying in Biblical exegesis that applies clearly here as well: “If the plain sense makes sense, don’t look for any other sense.”Let us now apply that standard to the article posted today. Here are the points made in the article, summarized: (1) a redonimation of the currency (2) this being done to ease transactions and allow people to carry less money. (3) there is a plan to elminate 3 zeros from the currency (4) the currency with 3 zeros (current banknotes) will be phased out late this year. (5) new banknotes will be introduced sometime before the end of the year (6) the old (large denom) banknotes will be gradually removed from circulation (7) they did not specify when the new notes would be issued. (8) both large and small (or old and new) banknotes will remain legal tender during this process until all large denom notes are removed Now we are ready to analyse these points and determine what the “plain sense” is from them. Here is a summary of what these notes say, and do not say. Iraq has announced that sometime during the next several months but before the end of this year all large denomination notes will be removed from their currency. In their place will be smaller denomination notes. The purpose for doing this is to make it easier for the people to do transactions and for them to carry LESS money. Both will remain legal tender throughout this process, so there is no lop, period. If there were to be a lop, one currency would become void and would be replaced with the other. Instead, the large denominations will be phased out over the next several months but will remain legal tender. In order for stated purpose number 2 above to work, there MUST be a revaluation of the IQD. This is the plain sense of statement number 2. If there were not a revaluation, then the people would be carrying MORE money, not less! Therefore we see that the RV has now been announced publically and that it will occur shortly. Iraq has furthermore stated that it is ready for this move now and is prepared to draw in the large denomination notes over up to 10 months. THEREFORE, there will not be a short 30 to 45 day “cashin” period as has been rumored in the past. The cashin period will take place naturally as people realize that holding large denomination notes is awkward in the normal course of daily business. Incidentally, from the first line of the article we now know that the smaller denomination notes already exist. In order for this process to take place naturally it makes sense to start it as soon as possible. The more time that is allowed for the transition to take place the easier it will be. Therefore, we should see the RV announcement within the next few days. The bottom line is this, folks: this is the big event we have been waiting for. It has now been clearly stated that it will occur, roughly when it will occur, and how the transition will be handled. We have everything here but the rate, and I suspect we will get that within just a few days as well, when the RV announcement is made. This is all consistent with the analyis made in my book and follows exactly as I determined that it would. I’m not tooting my horn. I’m just trying to show that “if the plain sense makes sense we need not look for any other sense.” Next, I believe we will see in short order that the removal from Chapter 7 has been approved and will occur either just prior to the announcement, simultaneous with the announcement, or just after the announcement of the RV. It will be shown that Maliki used the RV as a bargaining chip to excelerate the release from Chapter 7. Finally, as we have speculated, with reason, the initial rate will probably be about $1.50 and will remain locked or on a managed float until the end of the year. After that time it will float, in my opinion, and rise over the next 1 to 3 years to $3.50 or more. Since Iraq will be a free country during this process I foresee it occuring more quickly than slowly and recommend that all of us consider holding on to IQD in the new smaller denominations in order to maximize the gain (roughly 300%) in the foreseeable future. Steve

Well stated Mr. Sullivan; obviously this is an opinion piece and should proably be moved to the RUMOR section where my analyses are posted as well. Anyway, it is well thought out and well presented. Patience is the key, patience is the key. Steve

stewsday: Iraq will almost certainly have to honor the large denom notes. One big reason is that the US, Britain, France, and China are holding large amounts of these notes in their reserves. Iraq would do a serious disservice to these countries if it denied honoring the notes. As investor/speculators we will receive whatever the Federal Reserve receives in terms of "compensation" for the large notes. As I have stated elsewhere, IMO that will be over $3.00 per dinar.

Naturally the UAE will have no problem taking nearly worthless paper for their efforts, right? NOT!

Once again this shows the naivete' of President Obama in sending Joe Biden to Iraq to try to "convince" them to change course on the anti-Batthist purge. We see now that Maliki was just following the consitution of his country (I had mentioned this in chat several days ago). So how come Mr. O doesn't know what the constitution of Iraq says, huh?

10. Can Iraq afford to RV? Can we know? [Analysis] Among the most pressing questions that need answering is whether or not Iraq can afford a revaluation of its currency. The argument against this is that there are so many IQD in circulation now that Iraq can

9. Can we reasonably arrive at a rate? [Analysis] All of the discussion thus far has been based upon solid documentation. However when it comes to talking about a possible rate for the RV there is no documentation. We have lots of speculation and rumors about rates, from $.10 to $3.86 for the dinar. None of those is based on anything solid, unfortunately. There are sites that talk about seeing numbers on bank screens, but this too has not been verified. We are therefore left with this wide range of values and no facts. However, we need to ask ourselves if there is a way to use logic and reasoning to narrow that band somewhat. Let

This link was produced January 20, 2010: http://www.alsabaah.com/paper.php?source=akbar&mlf=interpage&sid=96809 The relevant quotes have been excised from the article for clarity. INT'L EFFORT TO PASS RESOLUTION TO LIFT RESTRICTIONS ON IRAQ NEXT MONTH - CH VII Pave the way for saving the country from Chapter VII The Ministry of Foreign Affairs to step up moves to lift restrictions in the area of disarmament that impede the country's efforts in the field of scientific research and paving the way for out of Chapter VII through the issuance of a resolution by the UN Security Council next month. He said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said in an official letter sent to the parliament speaker, got the "morning", a copy of: "The ministry is working with friends to adopt a resolution from the Security Council is to lift all restrictions imposed on Iraq in the field of disarmament based on the decisions of the right under Chapter VII, in particular resolutions 687 and 707 for the year 1991. "Zebari said that" these decisions are decisions which affect the sovereignty of Iraq because they restrict the possession of ballistic missiles have a range beyond 150 kilometers and also restrict uses of Iraq in some areas of scientific research ", stating that" it is hoped to issue such a decision in mid-February next if the House of Representatives passed the Optional Protocol to the Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency before the Council for a long time. " The foreign minister said that "Ratification of the Protocol will enable the International Atomic Energy Agency to send a note to the Security Council confirming that Iraq comply fully with its safeguards agreement," noting that "such a warrant is necessary to pass this resolution," expressing at the same time looking forward his ministry to "authenticate the House of Representatives of the Optional Protocol by mid-February because of the importance of such a decision as it represents a major step toward completion of national sovereignty." It should be noted that the House has finished on the first reading of the draft law on ratification of Iraq the Model Additional Protocol to comprehensive safeguards regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency. For his part, MP from the Kurdistan Alliance Azad Omar Bamarni hoped that the UN resolution passed by the Security Council next month will allow Iraq purchase of sophisticated weapons and long-range missiles to strike a balance in the region. Bamarni said in a statement the "morning": that "the ratification by Parliament on the Additional Protocol is essential to persuade the International Atomic Energy Agency that there are no illegal activities or seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, This helps to confirm the United Mahdp country's commitment not to break the agreements and commitments adhered to by Iraq, paving the way out of Chapter VII. "He noted that "the issuance of such a resolution from the Security Council will achieve the strategic balance in the region and achieve a deterrent force to Iraq as allowing him to buy long-range missiles and weapons of variety and cancels the previous decision determining the extent of missiles to 150 kilometers, in addition to carrying on scientific research especially in the areas are still off-limits to country, "adding that" this matter will also contribute to achieving stability in the region will not be a cause for escalation, because the purpose of buying such weapons in the future will be for both defensive and not offensive, because Iraq is a believer and is committed to international peace and security." Once again the relevant portions are highlighted in red. In short the effort is to eliminate all disarmament restrictions on Iraq by mid February, next month. Another attempt to get Iraq out from under Chapter VII On January 28 Iraqi representatives appeared before the UNSC and once again pressed for release from Chapter VII. This time Iraq has the backing of the United States as well. Here is a link: http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/ And the most relevant quote follows: