Enorrste

A Revision on

This is a great find, John1025. I had noticed it earlier on another site’s Tidbits and was hoping that someone would bring it here. It turns out that you apparently got it first and that DD took if from here! Obviously there are two important quotes in this article. Here is the first: “Finance Minister Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi: At the end of this year will see the current Iraqi dinar currency pair and the new Iraqi dinar, which is no different for the same amount, noting that the employee's salary is not affected by the standard of living , adding that Iraq's debt to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is a political debt will be resolved in the near future after installed the figures, saying Rafidain working system called universal banking system, a sophisticated system that works for a major international banks so far completed 60% at the end of this year will be completed in full.” We see that Zubaidi is consistent with what we have seen building in the Chronological post from a couple of days ago, and we can add this to that group as well with a date of 2/22/2010. What we see here is a confirmation that the analysis we have presented thus far is accurate. Two currencies will co-exist later in the year, one the original dinars with the 3 zeros (large denom notes) and then the newer smaller denominated notes. Second we see that they will be “no different for the same amount” which means that a 25,000 note will have the same value as a 25 dinar note. Finally we see that the standard of living of he Iraqis will not be affected by this, as we have noted before. I might note that the negotiations with Kuwait are also mentioned here and that they are progressing well, but as I have indicated before this will not hinder or affect the RV. Similarly the installation of the universal banking system is good news since it means that by the time the small denomination notes are circulating well in the economy this will be completed as well. Next we have the specific question and Zubaidi’s answer: “Q: What about what we read in the media about the intention of the Ministry in the deletion of zeros from the Iraqi dinar? This is not like the ministry, but the jurisdiction of the Central Bank independent of the ministry's proposal but it is the proposal I submitted to me three years ago, by deleting three zeros and the Central Bank studied this proposal and the bank's board finally approved by the end of this year we will see Ammeltian the current Iraqi dinar and the new Iraqi dinar, which is no different for The same amount will not be affected employee's salary and standard of living of the citizen with the survival of the dinar in the same Altdlol .” This nearly duplicates what we saw in the last paragraph but does add some minor tidbits of confirmation of what we already knew. First we see that it is the CBI and not the Ministry of Finance who has the final say on the RV. Second we see that Zubaidi’s proposal from 2007, which we have posted already, has been approved by the CBI. Next we see that there are two words that are not translated, which makes this awkward. The word “Ammeltian” could mean something like “finally” but it appears to not be a significant word in terms of understanding the meaning of the sentence. We know this because the sentence echos almost the same wording in the first quote. Then in the last line we see the word “Altdlol” without translation. Here also the word appears to be something like “sense” or some other word that would not affect the understanding of the full sentence. Now here is the point: we can be confident that the RV will occur shortly followed later by the redenomination (removing of the large denom notes). Unfortunately john1025 got this backwards on his comment just above mine here. The RV must come first, and then the redenomination. Second, the RV will be at least at $1.00. This is obvious because it is stated that an employees standard of living will not be affected as the large notes are removed. It appears from this that the RV will be at $1.00 and no more initially until the large notes are gone. After that I would expect to see a managed float for a year or more until it finally reaches “equilibrium”. I would put that number somewhere in the $3 to $4 range. By that time Iraq will have grown substantially in oil output and the economy will have grown dramatically due to the RV. This will place Iraq in a great position to become a full fledged member of the GCC, something that they desire to do. Now for the naysayers on the forum, this is not a lop. We have it clearly stated in the 7 previous documents that the “removing the 3 zeros” statements are in the context of removing large denominated notes for the convenience of people carrying less money. We also know that the large denominated notes will remain legal tender, something that could NOT happen with a lop. Finally we know that the RV occurs PRIOR to the removal of the large denominated notes, meaning that foreigners will receive the full benefit of the RV. Steve

Chief V : sorry for the delay in responding to you. I have not yet seen that the KRG dispersal plan is a hindrance either to its being in compliance with the Constitution of Iraq or with respect to the RV. If you have something specific that you'd like me to research I will gladly do so, but at this time I don't see a connection between what the KRG is doing and the upcoming RV. Steve

taxunder: I really want to ask you a serious question: If you admit to not knowing what will happen, how can you in the next sentence insist that you DO know what will NOT happen. I respectfully submit to you that you know neither, and that is OK with me. Incidentally, you might want to re-read my scenario. The Iraqi people WIN as well as those outside the country. No one loses in the long run on an RV, period. Steve

taxunder: I welcome you telling us all how you would interpret what will happen. Then we will have a discussion. Steve

Chas32: this is excellent material and confirms what I had written to FP in response to his concerns on Iraq being able to afford an RV. I knew that I had read what you just posted somewhere but was having trouble finding it. Now you have does us all a great favor by showing conclusively that Iraq is prepared for the RV. Steve

Here are a three emails I have received regarding the salary issue: "Hey Buddy, We are getting alot of Iraqi helicopters flying in here now and c-130 iraqi planes practice landing and refueling too. so all of this stuff about the salary changes must be alot of truth to that. and i had one guy tell me that he thinks we will see a rv with in the next week are two. so we will see i know i am ready for it and ready to go home. 6 years going on my 7th now and i'm getting to tired to keep doing this. Ok till next time take care, Dwayne" "Hey Buddy, For sure i will be in touch and we will have a good time in the philippines too and if i hear anything here that sounds good i will shoot you a email. it is really looking good even here and i really do think we will be hearing something on this dinar very soon also. ok got to get back to work now so keep it coming on your end and i will let you know of any news on my side till then take care. Dwayne" "Steve, What happened to the site. Went to get on last nite and it was down. I got a call from Real Fast, in Iraq. As of a couple of days ago, Dinar is no longer being sold on base. Yesterday, 1/2 of the Iraqi's that work on base didn't show up. This was also suppose to be going on in Bagdad too. They all laid out, because they were celebrating some news that they were all going to be out of poverty with their new money change coming soon. Real Fast checked, there was no declared holiday for them to have taken off for. If all of this is true, why would they celebrate something if it wasn't in the immediate future. The money change is said to have been written up in some local Iraqi news paper. It is close. SB" Take these as you will. These two people are soldiers in Iraq. Steve

Bruce, you are missing a big point. The answer to your question is that obviously all Iraqis could do this too. But the point is, will they? And the answer is definitely that they will NOT for the most part, either because they don't even know anyone outside their country, or they don't have the $17.00 extra for the FEDEX fees to send the dinars out. For the few who do have that ability I would suggest that they have already done so a long time ago. It must be fun to make light of this sort of thing. I trust that you enjoy it. I'm sure others here see it for what it is, however. If you ever want to have a real discussion, let me know. Steve

Response to FP on his concerns to my post Here I hope to address each of the points brought up by FP in this thread. I apologize again for my tardiness in getting this out. I will give his quote and then my response, in order. “Any time an article mentions the raising of the IQD to equal the US dollar, this is not evidence of either an RV or a lop, because both an RV and a lop would accomplish this goal. An RV makes your current IQD roughly equivalent to the USD, and a lop reduces your nominal value first by x1,000 and then the new amount is raised to be roughly equal to the USD. Either way, the exchange rate is raised.” As FP pointed out at the end of his post on this thread, I used the statement from the CBI that indicated and RV would occur AND THEN the redenomination would occur sometime later, up until the end of this year by their own statement. FP decided that he would no argue this point, so I take him at his word, in spite of his questioning a possible mistranslation. I personally can’t see how “and then” could be a mistranslation, but since he isn’t arguing the point I will accept that. Therefore, in the quote above you will find that FP reverses in his second example and placed the redenomination first “and then” the RV is second. If the CBI had said that then FP is correct that “either way, the exchange rate is raised.” However the CBI did NOT say that. So we are left with the first scenario only barring any other documentation to the contrary. Finally, the “lop” is clearly explained as a removal of large denom notes over time during the remainder of this year. Therefore the “and then” is given a context from within the article itself that prohibits a redenomination first “and then” an RV, since the CBI has clearly stated that the removal of the large denom notes would last until the end of the year, after the raising of the value of the IQD. Had the reversal been intended, then there would be no need for the small denom notes to be printed since they would be worth pennies. The chicken must come before the egg. Finally, the CBI has defined the term “3 zeros” clearly enough for any person to understand it: it is the removal of the large denom notes during the remainder of this year. Any other understanding, such as a Venezuelan “lop”, rejects the clear meaning of the term as stated by the CBI. “In fact, if the goal -- as stated in one of the articles -- is "to return [the IQD] to previous levels where one Iraqi dinar was valued at 3.33 US dollars"... when did these previous levels occur? Would we all agree that the previous level referred to is the rate prior to the first gulf war in 1990? That is the last time it was valued so high against the USD.” This question was answered in the same article that is being quoted here: “This was pre 1980 before Iraq became involved in three destructive wars that at one time led to the currency's value dropping to a level of 3,000 Iraqi dinars to one US dollar. The proposal has the support and approval of the World Bank.” Now this is important because the remainder of FP’s analysis refers to 1990, just before the Iraq/Kuwait war, and during the tenure of Saddam Hussein. However we see that Zubaidi was referring to a rate that PRECEDED the Hussein regime during a time when the IQD was an internationally recognized currency. Therefore all statements made by FP about the IQD not having a “real” value are not relevant. “There is no way that Iraq was supporting 25 trillion IQD at a rate of $3.33 USD per IQD back then. So if we are saying that the goal is to return to previous levels... where do we come to the conclusion that we are only returning to the previous levels of the exchange rate, but not the previous levels of the money supply? It doesn't say that anywhere in these quotes, yet we are assuming that it is only the exchange rate that we are returning to while keeping huge sums of money in the coffers?” It is becoming clear to me that I will have to address the money supply issue in a new thread shortly, since this line of thinking continues to surface. Here FP has linked and apple and an orange together, namely today’s money supply with a 1980 exchange rate. It makes for good theater, but it does not hold any water (great mixed metaphor, huh?) Here is the way to analyze and understand this: in 1980 the rate was a real rate of $3.33 per dinar. It was sustained and supported by the country of Iraq, regardless what the money supply was at that time. I doubt that we will be able to find out what the money supply was then, so it is a moot point to assume that it was any specific number. We just don’t know. From Wikipedia we have these rates for the IQD: “By not following the devaluations of the U.S. currency in 1971 and 1973, the dinar rose to a value of US$3.3778, before a 5 percent devaluation reduced the value of the dinar to US$3.2169, a rate which remained until the Gulf War.” Second, in my view linking the money supply only to the exchange rate is not appropriate. For the life of me I cannot find this link at this time but I read that the IMF has about 100 different measurement standards that it uses to determine how to set a sustainable rate for a currency. If I am able to locate this link I will gladly give it to all readers. Even without the link, however, it should be clear to all that the money supply is only one of many indicators of the strength of an economy. However, until I can provide this proof I will not belabor the point. "That 65 billion USD that CBI has in the bank, which is currently way more than is needed to cover the IQD, would now only cover .26% of the currency in play. That's a quarter of 1% of the money. However, AFTER A LOP, that same 65 billion is enough to cover 2.6:1 exchange rate, meaning that 1 IQD could then be RV'ed an exchange rate of 2.6 USD and still have the full backing of the CBI without any fractional reserve." Here, fortunately, FP has actually made my point for me. According to the CBI itself the plan is to draw in the large denom notes and remove them from circulation. The affect of this is the same as FP’s example of a “lop” just above. With the removal of the large denom notes the affect is that same as reducing the money supply by “3 zeros” or to 1/1000th of its original size. Therefore, just as FP has shown, in doing so the $65 billion in reserves would be able to support an RV in the range of $2.60 with no fractional reserves at all. Most have missed the fact that the strategy is two fold: RV and then removal of the large denom notes. When taken together the money supply falls to 1/1000th what it is today and the question of affordability disappears. “There is no way that the IMF is going to allow such a small amount of reserves to be used to cover such an unfathomable amount of money.” Here I agree completely with FP. However, as I have just shown, it is the plan of the CBI to reduce the money supply by withdrawing the large denom notes. While within the country this will occur in the very near future, outside the country the large denom notes will be exchanged for oil reserves and then destroyed. In any case, the affect to the local economy of Iraq will no be negatively impacted by an RV of up to even $3.50, in my opinion, because the money supply will drop precipitously as the large denom notes are surrendered. For the sake of argument, however, if the CBI elects to start the RV at $1.00 then they are eminently safe in affording this rate. As more and more large denom notes are surrendered and destroyed the IQD will be allowed to float up to an eventual rate that is commensurate with the average GCC rate of $3.49, and possibly even higher as oil production increases at the same time. I hope that this delayed note has addressed all of FP’s concerns. Steve

Kent, as noted in the beginning of this thread I have placed the document in the 2007 time frame. Current reserves in both gold and foreign currencies is more like $65 billion totally as of last year. Steve

Karen: you, along with 2 others now, have corrected me as I have shown above. I’m back to my original opinion on the savings accounts. It is now consistent (all treated the same) but won’t affect many people since few have savings accounts. Fiery Phoenix: you are the 4th now who has corrected my position. See, I can admit when I’ve made an error. Who’d have thought? OH, I also intended to respond to you analysis in our last thread and things just went haywire (I’m getting about 50 emails a day and like to respond to each with more than a single line). So I forgot. I will get to it after this. Quadraphonic: Many have now asked the question as to “how can Iraq afford to do this?” They have used numbers showing that it is impossible. However, the premise is wrong, in my opinion. No where does it state that a country has to have a certain amount of reserves to RV its currency, as far as I know. While .26% of reserves is a tiny number, it may not even apply. Here is my suggestion: how about one of us go find out what the reserves were for other countries that RVd and see if some sort of relationship can be determined and/or made relevant? This way we aren’t just spouting numbers. My position, as stated earlier in my book, is that there are at least 3 ways to estimate whether a country can “afford” and RV. I compared numbers in the US to numbers in Iraq that have been published. This was for 2 methods. The third stands on its own merit, in my view, and that is that the underlying wealth of Iraq is enormous and that means they can afford the RV. Incidentally, this last method is the one that the IMF uses when it decides to RV a currency, so I think I am on safe ground here. Kaperoni: you bring up a valid point about smuggling dinars out of the country. It is for this reason that the CBI has already been educating the people of Iraq. Since most Iraqis live “hand to mouth” the problem will largely disappear in short order. The locals will go to the bank and turn in their large notes so that they can go to the store and buy food. For the few who “figure this out”, and they will be few, some will get out of the country with large notes. But think about it: isn’t that just what we have done (except for the leaving Iraq part?). The CBI sees us as a gnat on a camel. The same will apply to those few who manage to escape with a few large denom notes. Oh, you can also rest assured that they will be at the borders looking for people with suitcases full of the large denom notes; and they will exchange them on the spot, I suspect. Wayne & Leah High: your dinars are in large denom notes and will remain legal tender. When the RV occurs at, say $1 per dinar, your notes will be worth $25,000 or whatever you have. Go to the bank and exchange them. You are NOT in Iraq! No one is forcing you to exchange for small denom notes. Steve

I am surprised that my most recent post has drawn so much interest. It is not practical for me to address each concern individually with separate posts so I will do so here, once and for all. Dinarded: You wrote “your attempt (or reattempt) to sell us all on your whacked out version of Iraq lopping their currency? Thanks for the effort but I think MANY are beginning to realize the same thing here.” With all due respect the proportion of those who appreciated what I wrote is about 9 to 1 in favor. Secondly, none other than you has stooped to using words such as “whacked out version”. Do I detect some sour grapes? Ajax: there is an element of correctness in what you wrote. This will definitely benefit the world governments who hold dinars. However, I would not go so far as to say that this is the ONLY reason that the RV is taking place. The real reason for the RV has more to do with internal Iraqi matters. We just reap the benefits from their actions. Earlygaudy: You wrote: “Why would we not lose the three 0's off ours just like they did?” The answer to your question is simple. The CBI has stated that all Iraqi currency, both large and small denom notes, will remain legal tender. Within the country they will require the people to exchange so that the new small notes have the same buying value as the one larger note. Within Iraq the larger notes will become superfluous (not useable) rather than worthless. Outside Iraq, where we have no need for the small notes or, for that matter for the large ones, the investor will exchange for dollars at the new RV rate, whatever it is. The fact that the foreigner benefits is not an issue for the GOI or CBI; people make money on currencies all the time. This just happens to be a big RV because the UN artificially reduced the dinar to next to nothing. In restoring it to its rightful place some will profit handily. This is simple economics. Tabi: You asked several questions. First I quoted the hypothetical TV personality in the analogy. Next you rightly state that the buying power remains the same; this comes from the CBI itself. All transactions within Iraq will see 3 zeros removed and the new lower denom notes will buy the same goods as the larger ones did before. Within Iraq nothing has changed except that the dinar has gained in value by 1000 times and the large denoms are removed over time. Initially no change other than the paper in the pocket occurs for the local Iraqis. Their gain will be realized over time as imports become amazingly cheap (1000 times cheaper!). No one is “out” as you say. They just are going to realize their benefits over time, big time. The Iraqi government will see gains as it buys goods from outside its borders, just as the locals will see those gains. Finally, the removal of the 3 zeros WILL HAPPEN because the CBI said so. Taxguy: your question regarding the savings of the local Iraqis is still open to debate, in my opinion. Last week on chat I had posed a theory that they would gain along with everyone else within their savings, making many millionaires (although it is my understanding that few Iraqis trust the banks, so the number of persons who benefit may be small). Last night I posed another option as a theory, namely that the funds within banks for locals would be reduced as well. Now that you have questioned this again it seems to me that my first view on this from last week’s chat it the more likely, and here is why: the CBI is “removing the large denom notes” when it talks of the “3 zeros”. Since a savings account is just an electronic record there are no “large denom notes” within a typical savings account. So it now seems reasonable that those who have savings accounts in Iraq will realize the 1000 times gain within them. This would also make it possible for ALL savings account holders, both foreign and domestic, to be treated the same (this came up later from someone else; I will refer that person back to this admission of a change of opinion – give me a break I did this at 3 a.m. last night!) Bokinegro: You questioned two Iraqis each having 1000 dinars in their pockets, one in a single note and the other in small denominated notes and wondered how this could work. Here is the answer in two parts: first, according to the CBI the small denom notes will come out AFTER the RV occurs, so it is not likely that the second Iraqi will have them in his pocket at all. However, let’s assume that there are some small denom notes floating around and let’s assume that this guy has a wad of them totaling 1000 dinars. After the RV the value of that wad of notes is $1. How many folks do you think would have more than, say, $10 worth of small notes lying around? I doubt there would be many, and the loss is insignificant to the overall gain to be realized by the people from the RV. It is sort of like losing a $5 bill from your wallet. Are you going to stress over it for the rest of your life? I don’t think so. Robinsnest: First of all to say that the Iraqis will not benefit is a mistake. They will benefit greatly over time. Secondly, when you start using terms like “they deserve more” or “this is wrong” you enter into emotion rather than logic. In any event of this magnitude there are going to be people who benefit more than others. That is just life. As I stated above regarding savings accounts and my change of opinion back to my original view, it may happen that some Iraqis who have savings will benefit immediately greater than the average Iraqi. This is life. To apply some “moral standard” to an event this large only confuses the issue. It solves nothing. Finally, no Iraqi will lose, period. Just because someone else gains more does not mean that someone else loses. Zoomzoom made that point as well, I see. Newbie: your concern is that you will not reap the 1000 times benefit and will only reap the later 3 times benefit. However you have forgotten one thing: the large denominated notes remain legal tender. Therefore when you exchange them for dollars you are exchanging a large note, say 25,000 dinars, at the new rate of $1.00 per dinar. So you will get $25,000 for the note, not $25. Column1: you wrote the following: “Question... How does an RV higher than a dollar help the people of Iraq? Does an RV at $2 to $3 help the people's buying power with imported goods?” It is clear to me that the first RV will be followed by a managed float of the RV to over $3.00 within 2 to 4 years. When this occurs the local Iraqis will realize the same benefit as a foreigner would, up to 300% or more gain on his money. However, as in the US, a dinar is a dinar, so they won’t “see” the gain except in as much as it allows them to buy more with the same dinar. In America when the dollar is strong then our jeans at Walmart get cheaper. What occurs is that the dollar is being RV’d to a higher rate through the international markets. But we don’t see the RV in our pockets because a dollar is a dollar to us. The same thing occurs in Iraq. Ronscarpa: I have addressed your concerns above with the statement that Iraqis who hold dinars in savings will realize the same benefit as foreigners will. However I also stated that it is my understanding (the CBI has stated this, incidentally) that it is very difficult for them to get Iraqis to deposit funds into banks. Therefore I suspect that the “windfall” will not apply to too many Iraqis. Lady Liberty: I have already addressed your question above. Placing emotional tags on this will not solve the issue. You must realize that NO ONE LOSES. However the gains, which will actually be the same in time for all, are realized within the country over time rather than all at once at the bank. It is just that simple. Here, try this: pretend you are an Iraqi who has 10,000,000 dinars in the bank. On RV day you will benefit just as an American will, with $10,000,000 in value in your account. The problem is that there will not be a lot of Iraqis who have that much in the bank. However, to the extent that some do, just as here with the speculators in the US, the impact of that new wealth will be spread quickly into the market. Cars, homes, businesses will all be bought and the “wealth value” will be disseminated throughout the country quickly bringing a revitalizaion to the economy of Iraq just as our “cashing in” will do the same in the US. The question is: just how many Iraqis have savings accounts? The answer, according to the CBI, is not too many. Regarding “the Plan” look to my previous posts where it is explained.

Now we move to the American who is holding 1,000,000 dinars in 25,000 notes in the US. On March 1 he hears that the IQD has revalued and has gained 1,000 times its value. He rushes to the news channel and sees that everything is proceeding smoothly in Iraq. He calls his local banker and asks if this is real and is told that it is and that he can come into the bank and exchange his dinars if he wants to. He goes to his bank with his 1,000,000 dinars in 25,000 notes and exchanges them for $1,000,000 which he promptly deposits in the bank. He goes home a happy man. The bank has a field day in taking in the dinars from its customers but is surprised that there are not as many as they thought there would be. At the end of the week all of the dinars are transferred to the region branch, which then transfers them to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve, over the next month or so, acquires 95% of all dinars in America, and all of them are in larger denominations with 3 zeros. The Federal Reserve holds those notes as support for the lagging US dollar, thereby securing its strength for the time being. Meanwhile in Iraq an American businessman has been told of the coming RV in the country. He is informed that as long as his accounts are registered as foreign accounts he need not be concerned. For some time his employees have been paid in dinars, since October actually, so he decides to hold a meeting with them. He informs the employees the same thing that the television is reporting, namely that the new currency will buy the same amount of goods and that the employee will not lose anything at all. He also informs the employees that for the foreseeable future no dinars are to be shipped home to the USA. Any shipments to the USA must first be converted to dollars and then they can be shipped to the USA. One of the employees, who was making 100,000 dinars per week as a clerk, finds out that his new salary is 1,000 dinars per week. He goes to the market and finds that everything is normal and that he can still buy what he needs as before. He finds a few items marked with 3 zeros but when he gets to the counter the clerk informs him that this is just “old money coding” and he pays the new lower price. He is happy. However he used to be in the habit of sending about 25% of his salary home to his wife. This was about 25,000 dinars. But he always was able to convert that into dollars beforehand, and ended up wiring $25 per week to his wife. At the end of the week he goes to the bank to wire his wife some money and finds that he can send her $25 with only 25 dinars. He is happy. The owner of the company that the American works for has another concern. He is concerned that his operating capital will lose value and he might be out of business unless he does something, and fast! So he runs to the local bank to check on his deposits. The banker informs him that he need not worry because his deposits have always been denominated in dollars and not dinars. The bank, he says, was told years ago to leave all foreign accounts in the currency of the home country. The man leaves the bank satisfied that he has not lost any money and that his business is secure. As time goes on and the end of the year approaches the banks in Iraq are receiving fewer and fewer large notes. By the end of the year the large notes are no longer coming into the bank at all. Commerce continues to occur at the same pace and better and the bankers are noticing more and more local Iraqis coming in to open savings accounts. The economy is flourishing and the RV has worked On the other side of the planet, in America, the economy is also booming. New entrepreneurs seem to have come out of the woodwork and new money is flowing into the economy at a breakneck speed. Real estate has finally started to rebound and even building startups are increasing. Many people attribute this boom to the great bailout from the Obama administration. Others just smile. Steve

Just How Could an RV Work? Tonight we had a spirited and challenging discussion that dealt with the question of how in fact an RV would work in the real world. Arguments were placed on both sides showing that this is a difficult issue to tackle, and to grasp. I thought that I would make this post so that everyone who cares can see where I am coming from on this tough problem. In order for me to lay this out clearly and as concisely as possible (I know

Next I decided to determine just what authority the IAMB has over the auditing of the RV. I went to the IAMB website and found its charter. Here is the link: http://www.iamb.info/tor.htm As I read the charter I saw that it dealt almost exclusively with funds coming from oil revenues. I was concerned that the IAMB might not have authority over auditing an RV and that my analysis of the “action plan” in Resolution 1905 might be flawed. Then I found these two elements taken from the charter: 3. Powers and Responsibilities E. Special Audits: The IAMB may decide, when warranted under international best auditing practices, that the External Auditor(s) or other independent public accountants (“special auditor(s)”) conduct special audits in all areas of the IAMB’s mandate and consistent with the objectives of resolution 1483, read with resolution 1546, resolution 1637, resolution 1723, resolution 1790, resolution 1859 and resolution 1905. After consulting with the Government of Iraq, the IAMB shall establish the terms of reference for the objectives, scope and approach of any such audits, which shall be conducted in accordance with International Standards on Auditing. 7. Administrative Coordinator/Secretariat E. The IAMB shall continue to cooperate during 2010 with the Committee of Financial Experts, established by the Council of Ministers of the Government of Iraq on October 19, 2006, or such other body that might replace that committee or substitute it, and work towards a full transition of its mandate to this committee by the end of 2010. In these two subsections of the IAMB charter I found what I wanted to find, and more. From the first subsection I found that indeed the IAMB has the authority to audit just about whatever it wants to audit as part of its mandate from UN Resolution 1905. Then in the second subsection I found that it can do so through its cooperation with COFE, which was created in October of 2006 as an auditing arm of the IAMB. But then I found something that truly surprised me: it turns out that COFE was established by the Government of Iraq and NOT by the IAMB. What does this mean? It means that the fox is guarding the hen house! We see here that COFE was created by the GOI and is going to perform an audit on the GOI, or nearly so. Actually the RV will be undertaken by the CBI which, like our own Federal Reserve, is an autonomous organization that is technically outside of the GOI. So in some sense there is an “arms length” transaction in which the two are not connected. Still, I found it interesting that the UN would appoint a GOI founded organization to audit the RV instead of an “external” organization from elsewhere in the UN. What this tells us is that the relationship between the UN and Maliki is actually quite cordial and that the UN is cooperating fully with Maliki’s intentions. Resolution 1905 was written at his request and gave him what he wanted; in addition by having COFE do the auditing of the RV it could be surmised that the audit will be done under the “eyes” of Maliki as well. So we see that the entire process is really being controlled by Maliki. Earlier we had shown that Shabbibi is a pawn of Maliki and that he will do what he is told. Even if this were not provable it is clearly the case since it is from his office at the CBI that the “action plan” has come, and the details of it have been in the works since 2005, as I have shown on another post. Finally, since the UN has been in control of Iraq since 2003, we may rest assured that it knows everything that is going on in Iraq, including the plan for the revaluation of the IQD. Therefore we can safely conclude that the UN, Maliki, and Shabbibi are all working from the same playbook. With that being said it is my considered opinion that there is now nothing holding back the revaluation of the IQD and that we should see it forthwith. Steve

Relationship of IAMB to COFE: can COFE audit the RV? After posting the other day a discussion of UN Resolution 1905 and its implications for the RV I decided that I needed to

It is quite clear to me from Maliki's letter dated 12/13/2009 to the UN that he expected the RV to occur "in 2009 or 2010" as he wrote. Therefore he was prepared in December for it so happen in December, which only had 17 days left. But he is a realist so he added "or 2010" knowing that there were some "lose ends" to tie up. Is my opinion that he would have loved to have the RV occur AT LEAST one month before the election for "transparency" sake. However, I also believe that he knows that the RV will ensure his re-election and therefore he will do all he can to get it put into place anytime BEFORE the election. I believe that his chances of winning the election without the RV are slim to none. Therefore I expect the RV to occur before the election. Steve

Dinarded and those of you who fall into his camp. Please, please, please stop a moment and then listen to this simple scenario. This week as an Iraqi I make 1,000,000 dinars. Next week as an Iraqi I make 1,000 dinars. With the 1,000 dinars I can buy the same goods as I did last week with the 1,000,000 dinars. Now Joe Dinarded living in the USA still has his 1,000,000 dinars. But he has no small denom dinars. What is is 1,000,000 dinars going to buy him is he goes to Iraq? He's not an employee looking for a paycheck next week. But his 1,000,000 is still legal tender. So he goes to Iraq and sees that 1,000 dinars will buy a weeks worth of food. Therefore his 1,000,000 dinars will buy 1,000 weeks worth of food. But wait, he doesn't have to go to Iraq to realize this gain, does he? All he needs to do is go cash it in for dollars at his local bank. Now, here is the question for you all: how many dollars is 1,000 weeks of food? The answer: $1,000,000. What you have failed to see is that within the country of Iraq there is NO gain, just as the CBI says. Things just get cheaper by 1,000 times. But so will imports! And in time the people in Iraq will realize their gain. But outside Iraq the gain is real and instantaneous. 1,000,000 dinars becomes $1,000,000. If that is not an RV I will buy anyone of you lopsters a lopster dinner on the day it happens! Steve

Jamming: Thanks for the question. I was hoping someone would ask about this. Here is the quote, again: "The right of a citizen is to remove the $ 200 thousand dinars and he could only replace it like any ordinary citizen here in Iraq, either from abroad, the banks in the States would be responsible to us of the assets of our currency....." Now here is what it means: We see that there are two different elements to this quote referring, interestingly enough, to two different groups. The groups are "citizens" on the one hand, and people from "abroad" on the other hand. Apparently (I do not know Iraqi law on this) if you are an Iraqi citizen you can only "remove" (or take out of the country, presumably) $200 thousand dinars. Now this is confusing since the $ sign is included with dinars. I would take this to mean that the Iraqi citizen is allowed to take 200,000 dinars from the country (drop the $ sign). This is reasonable. It does NOT affect us. Is that clear? Next we have the people "abroad" which would of course include us. The answer is clear: the banks in the States would be responsible to us of the assets of our currency. What this says is that US banking laws apply to foreign currencies, including the IQD. In other words, this is recognizing that there are a lot of dinars in the "States" and that the GOI and CBI are saying quite clearly that the banks in the states will report back to Iraq ("be responsible to us"). Now what is important is this: there is nothing written here about ANY restrictions on us at all. If our bank will exchange with us, then the banks will deal with Iraq. That's it. This is VERY GOOD!

sooner - I did not with respect to the 2007 or 2008 budget planning but I heard yesterday that they are now reducing salaries across the board for the 2010 budget and the upcoming raise in the value of the IQD. According to the latest rumor this will be over by March 1. Steve

Sorry the last three lines should have been black, like this: This short summary of actual quotes from reputable sources gives us a clear indication of the on-going plan of the CBI to revalue the IQD to at least $1.00 in the near future and then to removed gradually the larger denominated notes as they become unusable in the market place. This summary further totally eliminates any possible interpretation of a lopping of zeros such as happened in Venezuela. SexyDinar - when the IQD revalues at, say $1.17 then your one million dinars will be worth $1,170,000. I would hardly call this a waste of time. Steve

5. February 6, 2010 http://www.rferl.org/content/Iraq_Pl...n/1950504.html “News / From Our Bureaus Iraq Planning Currency Redenomination ”February 06, 2010 “BAGHDAD -- The Iraqi Central Bank is planning to redenominate the national currency in an effort to ease transactions and allow people to carry less paper money, RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq (RFI) reports. ”Mudhhir Muhammad Salih, a member of a Central Bank advisory panel, told RFI that a plan has been made to remove three zeros from the currency and phase out the current banknotes late this year. ”Salih said by the end of 2010 the new banknotes will be fully introduced while the old banknotes will be gradually removed from circulation. He did not specify when the new notes would be issued. ”Both will be legal tender in Iraq until the old notes are completely withdrawn. ”Iraqi officials have had a long-running plan to redenominate the Iraqi dinar. In 2006, the Finance Ministry recommended to the Central Bank that it carry out such a plan. ”Salih pointed out that banks are having a hard time accepting cash savings and deposits, but by dropping the zeros it will make it easier for both the banks to deal with their customers and for the general public to carry money. He said some 80 percent of Iraq's money supply is cash in circulation. ”Salih added that in 1990 the value of banknotes in circulation was about 25 billion Iraqi dinars but is currently some 25 trillion dinars. ”Economic analyst Hilal al-Tahhan told RFI that the bank's move is overdue. He said he expects the currency change to go smoothly because of the decision to allow both the old and new banknotes to coexist, leading to less turbulence in the economy. ”The current exchange rate is 1,167 Iraqi dinars to the U.S. dollar.” 6. February 10, 2010 http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2010/02/two-currencies-coexist-together-and.html February 10, 2010 Two currencies coexist together and gradual replacement Central Bank (time): Delete the zeros start end of the year BAGHDAD - Ahmed Saleh Khyoun CBI begins the end of the year and gradually replace the currency now in circulation a new currency which zeroes deleted within the strategy to reform the monetary system started in 2005. Bank consultant and announced the appearance of Mohammed Saleh told (time) on that (the bank has completed 50 percent of a strategy switch in and out, delete the zeros of the nominal value of the new currency while retaining the cash value and purchasing power), said that (the replacement process will be gradually and spontaneously high and without fanfare, as will be There are two currencies to trade at the same time go hand in hand), but (that the purchasing power of the new currency will remain fixed). Saleh said (there are multiple advantages of this strategy, including ease of trading between the citizens and facilitate the work of banks, counting, sorting, and stand on the counterfeit currency and to facilitate transactions of the citizens with the banks on the deposits and withdrawals in addition to facilitating the process of monetary reform after hitting a currency issued in circulation now 25 trillion dinars, while in 1990 was about 25 billion dinars and this in itself calls for the deletion of zeros). In the answer to a question by (time) whether the Central Bank has set a deadline for the replacement of the currency said (we did not define this ceiling until now that the matter is still under study and the reality of work at that time will decide how long the replacement process). Responding to another question about the Iraqi currency held abroad and how to replace it "(The right of a citizen is to remove the $ 200 thousand dinars and he could only replace it like any ordinary citizen here in Iraq, either from abroad, the banks in the States would be responsible to us of the assets of our currency), He pointed out that (a media campaign will precede and guide the process in order to raise public awareness of the importance of this and that our banks and our will all be ready to provide all facilities to the citizens and emphasize once again that the process does not affect absolute quiet in the market also note that many countries replaced their currency and benefit from their experiences in this area, including Turkey, Russia, Brazil and others). 7. February 11, 2010 From Al-Iraq News.com Conscious / Baghdad / G. E 11/2/2010 3:51 pm Finance Minister Bayan Jabr said the lifting of the zeroes of the Iraqi currency will support the currency against the dollar. Zubaidi, in remarks quoted by reporter (news agency, Iraqi Information / conscious) that this proposal by the Ministry of Finance to the Central Bank of Iraq was not affected increase or decrease but it is just delete the zeros vocation not only the case in many countries Noting that the Iraqi dinar would be offset dollar or slightly more than after the application of this proposal. According to an official source at the ministry The proposal to raise three zeroes from the currency will be in accordance with the right monetary policy is not gradual, as happened in Turkey and this policy will raise the monetary value of the Iraqi currency and will of the Iraqi dinar Strength of cash against all currencies. Summary The following summarizes the seven articles above. 1. September 2005 but suggested that Mr. Governor of the Central Bank Dr. Sinan Shabibi need to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar and return to normal through the lifting of three zeroes. the proposals to get the value of the Iraqi dinar equivalent of [to] the American dollar, this goal we will strive to achieve. 2. June 29, 2006 The Ministry of Finance together with the Central Bank are studying a proposal to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar in order to return it to previous levels where one Iraqi dinar was valued at 3.33 US dollars. A statement by B.J. AL Zubaidi, the Minister of Finance, in which he said that he had suggested to the Chairman of the Central Bank, Dr. Sinan AL Shibibi, that three zeros be taken from the Iraqi Dinar in order to raise its value so that one Dinar be equal to a Dollar. 3. January 21, 2007 Al Zubaidi emphasized that the Ministry of Finance and in consultation with the Central Bank seeks to identify the exchange rate of the dollar at 1260 dinar during the this year. It also laid down a plan to restore the Iraqi dinar to its former era during the coming three years expressing his hope to stabilize its exchange rate at 1000 dinar for the dollar during the coming period. 4. August 2008 Finance Ministry has prepared a plan to increase the value of the dinar against the dollar and then delete the three zeroes from the dinar's value to contribute to the advancement of the Iraqi economy during the coming period On the other hand denied the authoritative source in the Iraqi Central Bank rumors making the dollar worth 1000 dinars, or a change denominations or raise zeros from the current currency 5. February 6, 2010 The Iraqi Central Bank is planning to redenominate the national currency in an effort to ease transactions and allow people to carry less paper money that a plan has been made to remove three zeros from the currency and phase out the current banknotes late this year. ”Salih said by the end of 2010 the new banknotes will be fully introduced while the old banknotes will be gradually removed from circulation. Both will be legal tender in Iraq until the old notes are completely withdrawn. but by dropping the zeros it will make it easier for both the banks to deal with their customers and for the general public to carry money 6. February 10, 2010 CBI begins the end of the year and gradually replace the currency now in circulation a new currency which zeroes deleted within the strategy to reform the monetary system started in 2005. 7. February 11, 2010 this proposal by the Ministry of Finance to the Central Bank of Iraq was not affected increase or decrease but it is just delete the zeros vocation not only the case in many countries Noting that the Iraqi dinar would be offset dollar or slightly more than after the application of this proposal. The proposal to raise three zeroes from the currency will be in accordance with the right monetary policy is not gradual, as happened in Turkey and this policy will raise the monetary value of the Iraqi currency and will of the Iraqi dinar Strength of cash against all currencies. This short summary of actual quotes from reputable sources gives us a clear indication of the on-going plan of the CBI to revalue the IQD to at least $1.00 in the near future and then to removed gradually the larger denominated notes as they become unusable in the market place. This summary further totally eliminates any possible interpretation of a lopping of zeros such as happened in Venezuela. Steve

The documented History of the Pending Revaluation of the IQD In an effort to allow us all to have the same information from which to arrive at our own conclusions regarding the pending RV of the IQD I thought it would be helpful to place here, in one place, all documentation regarding the RV in chronological order. In doing so we will be able to see how the

All issues will be resolved by the end of the summer. Just yesterday Kuwait News announced that Iraq had published in its papers an appeal to all Iraqis to return whatever Kuwaiti documents or items that they were holding from the 1990 war. In addition, progress is being made on the money issues as well. I fully expect to see this completed by the end of summer as was promised by an Iraqi official earlier this month (sorry, don't have that link in front of me, but it is on the forum). Steve

Harley expat = you are mistaken on Iraq's ability to procure weapons. They were released from that restriction some time ago by the UN. In fact several restrictions of Chapter 7 have been released to date. As Hill said their are about 15 items remaining (I listed them all in my book, posted here). Weapons sales to Iraq is not among them. In fact, Iraq is procuring weapons from BOTH the US and Russia as we speak. They are apparently being paid for with oil revenues under the blessing of the UN and through the DFI. Steve