bigzac

The truth is climber that nobody knows what is actually going to happen with Iraq. All of the interpreting you see is speculation at best. I've bought and made money from the Dinar already and I didn't do it because I analyzed natural resources or historical perspectives on the economy of Iraq. I bought the Dinar because Iraq is a country that has been destroyed and is now being rebuilt by the USA. As of the moment the USA has an excellent track record when it comes to sponsoring countries into the global economy and as such that is the only reason you should consider this a somewhat decent speculation--period. My advice to you? Stop checking it. There is no timeline. Especially stay away from Dinar pumpers like Frank. I think Adam has a pretty decent reputation and track record for not espousing a ton of BS and I remember reading over his college paper that supposedly got him started down this whole track, but even he will not say he knows what will happen. Come back online once a week and take a quick peek to see if anything is happening, if not, leave it alone. Stick with news articles only, not blogs. Read what they say and don't interpret things. I think in the end the dinar will be up a mile, personally I think 3:1 (or even 1:1, Adams original theory was 0.10 : 1) is insane but even it it climbs to a penny it will end up being a decent little chunk of cash. Best of luck to you!

To answer this bluntly, yes, there is still ample opportunity for some kind of large spike in value of current holdings. As to when, and how much of a spike? That remains to be seen. Iraq and the IQD are one of several stages that the true conflict of the world is being played out on and the timelines for this scale of action is much longer than a normal person really thinks about. As to the "after seven years" part. Seven? Only seven? I have been holding IQD since it was initially released to the public. I got mine directly through J.P. Morgan Chase for a very nominal exchange fee. I have already made money on the IQD and I have no intention of getting rid of it. The detractors of this "investment opportunity" seem to forget that there are plenty of us who have already netted a lucrative 20%+ return and this is prior to Iraq actually plugging itself into the global economic system (and America's true influence.) I see nothing but upside here. Obviously the general rules of prudent investing apply....don't over invest, don't invest for the short term, understand what it is your actually investing in vs what you think it is...etc.

When a bank creates a mortgage. Where does the money come? When someone withdraws money from a bank that has lent out a portion of their cash as a loan, where does the money come from?

I don't understand, the Fed's long announced end of easing and beginning of rate hikes has begun...it makes sense the exchange rate would fall...all this stuff about mafias is just nonsense at the scale of the international currency markets..

Hi Antietam, Many people have invested into this currency with a shaky understanding of the realities of economics and politics. As I read through the forums much of the reasoning behind why people believe this investment will make them money is unsound at best and sometimes factually untrue at worst. However often in life it does not matter why you're correct, it simply matters that you are correct, and in the case of iraq, congrats...I'm supremely confident that in time we will all make a lot of money at this. I'm currently in the midst of writing a VERY lengthy history of americas involvement in the middle east, and a history as to why militant islam has risen with such force against western interests, and eventually when I post it I will attempt to explain at great lengths why we are where we are today. For the meanwhile however I will answer your question with the simplest answer of all. We will all make money off of the dinar, and Iraq will succeed, simply because this is what the USA wants, I.E. it is in our strategic interests. Consider the following comparison of situations, Japan post-WW2, and Iraq post-invasion/Saddam. Both were essentially enemy countries up until we decimated them, both hold strategic geographic locations for our military interests, and both are going to be (or already are) devoted allies of the USA's. The differences between Japan and Iraq are simple, in Iraq there are many people that are actively fighting against our economic occupation, and in Japan there were none. It took roughly a decade after WW2 for Japan to enter into the beginning phase of what is referred to as "the japanese post war economic miracle". Where their economy skyrocketed in value, and also keep in mind this is during a period of time where "industrializing" alone was enough to trigger an economic boom, which is not the case today. We have now been in Iraq slightly longer than that, but in economic time frames the difference between 10 years and 14 years is fairly insignificant, especially when you factor in the differences I already mentioned. With that having been said, here is the background for the Japanese economic recovery as taken directly from the wikipedia article. "This economic miracle was the result of Post-World War II Japan and West Germany benefiting from the Cold War. It occurred partly due to the aid and assistance of the United States, but chiefly due to the economic interventionism of the Japanese government. After World War II, the United States established a significant presence in Japan to slow the expansion of Soviet influence in the Pacific. The United States was also concerned with the growth of the economy of Japan because there was a risk after World War II that an unhappy and poor Japanese population would turn to communism and by doing so ensure that the Soviet Union would control the Pacific. The distinguishing characteristics of the Japanese economy during the "economic miracle" years included: the cooperation of manufacturers, suppliers, distributors, and banks in closely knit groups called keiretsu; the powerful enterprise unions and shuntō; good relations with government bureaucrats, and the guarantee of lifetime employment (Shūshin koyō) in big corporations and highly unionized blue-collar factories. This economic miracle was spurred mainly by Japanese economic policy, in particular through the Ministry of International Trade and Industry." Notice anything? If you swap out the Japanese/geographic names with Middle Eastern terms, you could essentially be reading EXACTLY what is happening right now in Iraq. This is how you know we will make money in the end, because this has already happened before. Don't be disillusioned with Iraq's non-compliance with the internets "assumed timeline", many people have a hard time imagining the scale and scope of the game of nations that is being played out. It will happen.

Well it depends on what is driving the price of oil to rebound. I will lay out what I think the likely scenario will be, I'll arrange it as a series of steps or events for continuity purposes but just keep in mind many of these things happen simultaneously or even precede the actual events happening because institutional investors base their decisions on the impacts of future events and how the relate to value and free cash flows. The first number will be the factor that drives the price increase. 1. Fed announces rate hike for the USA prime lending rate 2. This causes the value of the USD to rise. (which we, dinarians, and the USA do NOT want to happen) 3. The increasing value of the USD causes four things to occur, that I will list: 3a) The price of oil will rise regardless of supply or demand 3b) The cost of doing business in developing/exporting nations will rise dramatically 3c) The other major economic players will step up their lending to other nations, and attempt to devalue their currencies. China has already announced their artifical devaluation intention/strategy. 3d) America's imports will rise, and exports fall (bad for USA) So in this situation we have a near perfect storm of bad things for the USA. Our lending ability goes down, our availability of inexpensive imports goes down, our ability to compete with exporting nations of the world goes down, we piss off a lot of the manufacturing nations of the world, and the price of oil goes up. Our primary concern however are the first three. IF our strategy is to suck massive value out of Iraq via an RV--this will create a perfect opportunity to do so by: 4. America announces a massive currency/debt swap with various nations of the world, namely Iraq. 5. America floods Iraq with our newfound, more valuable currency which achieves the following things. 5a) The value of the USD plummets, which solves our lending ability, lowers the value of oil, improves exports, and lowers cost of doing business with our trade partners. 5b) Increases upward pressure on the China/Russias currency--thereby making their lending abilities go down, the values of the currency go up, their exports to decrease. 5c) The value of the dinar rises dramatically due to diminishing supply of it--a win for the USA and IRAQ. Heres hoping.......

Again, while what you're saying is technically true, it is not a hard rule. There is no mandate that if earning were to increase the price will increase (it would actually be free cash flow by the way, not revenues), it all has to do completely with supply and demand of investors purchasing/selling stock. There is no computer system somewhere that calculates and sets stock prices, there is no law that governs how the performance of a company dictates its stock price, it is ALL a by-product of investor behavior. There have been many instances throughout history where stocks have risen and fallen with no seeming correlation to actual performance of a company. If a company reports increased earnings, but a news article comes out that causes people to doubt the long term potential of the company (regardless of it is factual or not), and they sell off their shares the price will fall. Now in the event of a currency peg, what you are saying is true. But when a currency is placed into the free market, the only thing that governs its price is simply what people are willing to pay for it--period.

Well, from a financial perspective only, profit = revenue - costs. The point of the question is to highlight the incorrect mindset that many people in the LOP tank have which is something like this: If a company increases profits, then its stock price will rise. This is incorrect, stock price and profits have nothing to do with the value of a stock. The same holds true for currencies. The LOP crowd believes it is "impossible" for the dinar to RV because of all of these rules relating to the money supply, when in fact those rules do tend to apply...however they are not mandatory. If a country were to all of a sudden 2x or 3x their money supply, would the value of their currency decrease by 50%+? The answer is maybe. It all depends on what happens to the DEMAND for the currency after those changes are projected to the world. Just like a company on the NYSE reporting massive increase (or decrease) in profits.

I understand what you (and many other people are saying) but it just is not factually true. Rather than engaging in this direct debate I will ask a different question that relates in principal to the idea you're discussing: Question: If a publicly traded company on the NYSE reports an increase in net profits of 1000%, does this cause the stock value to rise? Why?

There can be any number of reasons why the disparity is so high...CVS and Walgreens both have identical ROI and ROA yet trade for completely different prices on the NYSE....