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ixic
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Posts posted by ixic
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2 hours ago, yota691 said:
The purchase price of the dollar to 128.5 dinars, 128 thousand, 500 dinars for one hundred dollars.
The sale price of the dollar to 129.5 dinars, ie 129 thousand, and 500 dinars for one hundred dollars.
Look closely, 129.5 dinars, its abbreviated for 129,500 dinars, per 100 usd.
So the rate is 1295.
I did a double take, then saw the second line again.
Still waiting.
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Hey Adam, what is your take on all these CBI articles that have come out this past weekend? It seems the CBI is getting ready for something to happen, hopefully before end of the year.
CBI approaching the issue dinar-mail and enter it in the business dealings
The Central Bank Reveals The Date Of Launch Electronic Currency !
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Investors Need Gold To Preserve Savings – Barisheff
Nick Barisheff, CEO of Toronto’s Bullion Management Group, advised investors to include gold in their portfolio to preserve their savings.“Many investors and their financial advisors consider gold to be a commodity, which makes gold no different than copper, timber, pork bellies or orange juice. They do not understand, or simply are unaware, that gold has been successfully used as money for over 3,000 years. Although some people think it is an archaic relic, the facts don’t support this view…
“Gold is traded on the currency desks of all major banks and brokerages, along with dollars, euros, yen and pounds, and not the commodity desks along with other commodities – the FX traders know gold is money.
“On the balance sheets of all central banks, gold is classified as a monetary asset, along with their foreign currency reserves. The central bankers know gold is money. Central banks do not hold any other commodity as part of their reserves. Alan Greenspan knows gold is money, as he laid out in his famous article “Gold and Economic Freedom”, written in 1966, before he became chairman of the Federal Reserve…
“One of the most important attributes of gold is that it is negatively correlated to financial assets, such as equities and bonds, and non-correlated to commodities… When financial assets decline, gold tends to move in the opposite direction, and increases in currency terms. What this means is that gold acts as portfolio insurance to reduce volatility, improve returns, and improve both Sharpe and Sortino ratios…
“For the sake of your financial well-being, take the time to understand what money is, its history and how it is created through the fractional reserve banking system. You will then understand that this 44-year-old experiment with the US dollar as the first global reserve fiat currency will assuredly end in disaster for those who hold their wealth in paper, just like all the other times when this was tried by individual countries.
“You will come to the same conclusion that I and numerous other experts have come to: You need to hold a substantial part of your portfolio in precious metals in order to preserve your savings.
“It is critical to take the time to understand that gold and silver are the most reliable forms of money for preserving wealth. When it becomes obvious to everyone that the system is failing, it will be too late. Unlike paper currencies, you can’t simply print more gold. If even a small percentage of the $250 trillion in global financial assets tries to move into less than $2 trillion of privately held gold, the only variable will be the price, and even then the question will be availability.
That is how we will get $10,000 per ounce gold and $250 per ounce silver.”
(“Gold and Pork Bellies,” BMG, 7/26/16.)
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$1400 Gold Just Start of Bull Market – VanEck
Investment firm VanEck issued a report stating that $1400 gold will be just the start of a new bull market.“Although gold prices are down from last week’s two-year high, one investment firm sees $1,400 an ounce as just the start as the market remains in a new bull uptrend. In a report released Tuesday, Joe Foster, gold strategist at VanEck, said that the firm is expecting gold prices to reach $1,400 an ounce in the second half of the year, adding ‘and we do not believe it will end there…’
“What is the driving the next leg of the renewed secular bull market is the fact that investors are being more proactive, he said… ‘Many are seeing the looming potential for another financial crisis and making a strategic allocation to bullion as a hedge against systemic risk,’ he said.
Foster sees several factors in the global economy that will continue to support gold prices in the long term, including continued loosed monetary policy and low bond yields. Quoting the latest report from ratings agency Fitch, he noted that $11 trillion in sovereign debt is offering negative yields…
Foster also said that weak global growth and volatile currency markets will make gold an attractive investment… Turning to the U.S., Foster said that the 2016 presidential election also promises to be positive for the yellow metal, no matter what side wins the race….”
(“Gold Price Of $1,400 Is Just The Start – VanEck,” Kitco News, 7/12/16.)
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Perfect Storm for Higher Gold Prices – Forbes
Forbes reported that the current financial and political climates are positive for gold’s bull run.“Gold shone brightly for a few days this week before running out of steam, but if anyone thinks gold has done its best for 2016 they’re not looking at what’s driving [gold]. A heady mix of financial, political and economic forces are behind the latest gold revival and none of them are short-term events…
“Credit for this week’s rise in the gold price to a two year high of $1314.87 an ounce was shared by confirmation that U.S. interest rates will be lower for longer and that British voters might agree with a proposition that their country should quit the European Union… And then there’s the biggest uncertainty of all, the gorilla in the room … what will the U.S. economy look like in the first year of President Trump should he be elected in November.
Gold loves situation like this. It is the ultimate fall-back investment for a time when everything else has failed or when the yield on conventional investments makes zero-interest bullion look good…
“The importance of Brexit to gold cannot be over-stated because while it might only involve one reluctant member of the E.U. opting out, the potential for a domino effect could be catastrophic with other Euro-skeptic countries joining Britain at the exit.”
(“Gold Can Only Go Up As A Perfect Storm Of Brexit And Trump Presidency Loom Large,” Forbes, 6/17/16.)
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“Incredible Opportunity” To Own Gold And Silver Before Next Crash – Embry
John Embry, Senior Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, told King Worlds News that current prices offer an opportunity for investors to acquire physical gold and silver before the next world economic collapse.“Eric, it certainly has been an ugly couple of weeks in the precious metals space, with platinum being abused as much or more than gold and silver. I thought Andrew Maguire did an excellent job in explaining the action in his KWN interview on Friday… And when you juxtapose Maguire’s interview with the interviews KWN did with Pierre Lassonde and Stephen Leeb, where they explained the fundamentals for enormous price increases in gold and silver, it clearly demonstrated once again what an incredible opportunity there is for investors to acquire whatever physical gold and silver they can at these prices…
“Also, I remain fascinated by the misinformation coming from official sources with respect to the economy. The recent housing numbers were many, many standard deviations above where they should have been, and a lot of the supposed strength in the sector is primarily attributable to horrible lending standards that appear to be repeating the same process that proceeded the 2007 – 2008 collapse. However, as bad as the lending standards might be in the housing sector, they are dwarfed by what is occurring in the auto sector… This is going to end very badly, and I’m afraid in the not-too-distant future we might be referring to 2007 – 2008 debacle as the good old days.
“I still believe that the U.S. authorities remain very concerned about an eventual dollar crisis or outright collapse for that matter… There is no reason for a rate hike, so the government has to create fictional numbers in order to support the concept and keep foreign investors in the dollar….” (“50-Year Veteran Warns We Are Headed For Another 2008-Style Collapse,” King World News, 6/1/16.)
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Growing Call for Return to Gold Standard As World Approaches Next Great Recession – Bloomberg
Bloomberg discussed the growing number of experts and politicians who are urging a return to a gold standard to combat the reckless central bank policies threatening the economy.“When times are tough, new economic theories get a better hearing. Maybe some old ones, too. The gold standard is one of the oldest ideas about money, but the hardest of hard-money hawks sense an opening to breathe new life into it. Decades ago, the amount of cash circulating in a country was often limited by the stash of bullion held in its coffers. Especially since 2008, developed-world policy has headed in the exact opposite direction, expanding the powers of central banks to stoke growth. Helicopter drops of money, potentially the next new thing, would be a giant leap further…
For those in the U.S. who see much risk and little benefit in the current course, gold is still a rallying point. And their audience may be growing. ‘The fringe has become the mainstream,’ said Jesse Hurwitz, a U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York. He sees the gold standard as a bad idea but “something we’ll increasingly talk about…’
“George Gilder thinks gold-standard ideas are on the way back whatever the politicians do. Founder and chairman of the Gilder Technology Group and a bestselling author who helped popularize supply-side economics in the Reagan era, he says the trillions of dollars that fly around global currency markets every day are a ‘bizarre abuse of capitalism” sucking vitality out of the real economy…
“Gilder sees a political backlash when negative interest rates start taking away people’s savings. Jim Rickards, chief global strategist at money manager West Shore Funds and author of ’The New Case for Gold,’ says the Fed and its peers have expanded their balance sheets to ‘the outer limit of confidence.’ Rickards helped negotiate the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management in the late 1990s and says it’s been downhill ever since. ‘In 1998, Wall Street bailed out a hedge fund. In 2008 the Fed bailed out Wall Street,’ he said. ‘What’s going to happen in 2018? It’s going to be the IMF bailing out the central banks.’
He sees a chance of ‘close to 100 percent’ that a downturn worse than the Great Recession is on the way in the next few years -- and then, ‘you’re going to be hearing a lot more about gold.’”
(“Make America Gold Again: Calls for Everyone's Favorite Standard Are Back,” Bloomberg, 5/17/16.)
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Fed Policies May Send Gold Prices 5 to 10 Times Higher – MarketWatch
Cody Willard, author of MarketWatch’s Revolution Investing newsletter, told readers that dangerous Federal Reserve policies may cause gold prices to rise 5 times or more.“I've met hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller a couple times … He's made billions of dollars investing money for George Soros and his own clients in the hedge fund he ran for 20 years. I ran across his name over the weekend, as some of you might have, in must-read articles after his appearance at the annual Sohn Conference in New York.
“Druckenmiller was wildly bullish on gold... He also was concerned about corporate debt and the Fed's endless easy-money policies. My own analysis and writings reflect much of what Druckenmiller is talking about…
“I am writing up a new report about the short- and long-term outlook for gold, which is obviously related to all of the same topics that Druckenmiller is highlighting. Long-story short: … all signs do point toward a higher price for gold, both in the near term and my lifetime, during which I expect a five- to 10-fold increase in price. Negative interest rates, more of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) and a race to devalue every major currency in the world are quite bullish for gold. The timing of all those things are affecting the gold market right now…
“Whether it's Trump, Clinton or anybody else in the White House, these trillions of dollars of economic movement and debt and financial engineering from governments and corporations and wars and starvation and natural disasters and the risk of our Internet/electrical/defense networks failing and so on ... the fundamentals can't be undone now….”
(“I’m with Stan Druckenmiller — gold has every reason to rise,” MarketWatch, 5/9/16.)
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Thanks Socal. That trailer definitely peaked my interest. Unfortunately, I am expecting a crash in the near future.
How soon? I guess we'll find out. Hope everyone is stocked up.
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Gold Is Real Money; Necessary to Preserve Wealth - Fulp
Certified Professional Geologist and Kitco commentator Mickey Fulp reviewed the gold-silver ratio since the U.S. left the gold standard, concluding that every investor must include gold in their portfolios.“I have written a lot of words documenting the record of gold and silver prices and ratios over the nearly 45 years since the United States (and therefore, the world) abandoned the gold standard. But what are the longer-term ramifications of a monetary system without backing?
“From that juncture, we were left with nothing but a basket of fiat currencies posing as surrogates for real money. History has proven time and time again that all governments, whether city-states, countries, or empires, eventually debase their currencies to worthlessness and the world economic system lapses into chaos.
We nearly witnessed such a scenario in the late summer and fall of 2008 but somehow, the banksters saved the system until a future day. Their solution, however, spawned a current world economy saddled by unserviceable debt, serial insolvencies, negative interest rates, deflation, and debased currencies.“Many of us realize the present world economic paradigm is unsustainable and collapse is inevitable. Some pundits pontificate that this economic Armageddon is imminent. But folks, I am here to tell you that no one can predict when it will happen. Those that try seem mere analogues to fundamental religious zealots who set serial dates for the end of the world. As you can gather, it is difficult for me to put much stock in their perma-gloom-and-doom dogma.
“That said, here’s what I know: gold is real money and owning it will preserve your wealth no matter what economic catastrophe is laid upon us. I’ve got my stash and trust that you do, too….” (“The 45-Year Record of Bullion Prices,” Kitco, 5/3/16.)
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20 minutes ago, mr.unlikely said:
Breitling used to collect imperial data for the government. He is a pretty smart guy. I have met him and talked to him in person and my impression of him is that he is a straight shooter. He made a ton of money on the ISX and has no money issues. He puts out his reports because he likes doing it and he got tired of the guru poopoo. I listened to that last report and was a little bummed that his assessment has pushed it out to possibly the end of the year or beyond. When we spoke a couple months ago, when he was in the SF Bay Area I asked him, not for a rate and date, but what he generally felt the timing would be. He said maybe by summer. That said I am Not holding his feet to the fire because this is Iraq and who the hell knows what is going to happen. He did, however tell me that the value of the Iraqi dinar at this point in time, based on the data he has, is worth 57 cents, even with the Isis crisis
I was there also in February in San Francisco when Breitling said this. He is a real no B.S. guy. Just wants to give you the truth and not hype or pump your false hopes. Had a chance to speak with him also for about 10 minutes after the event. Good guy.
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Gold & Silver : 4/15/16
Release Date: Friday, April 15, 2016
Gold and Silver Prices
Gold prices fell on a stronger dollar but recovered some of its earlier losses to end the week relatively flat.
“Gold prices pulled back to $1,208.50 while they consolidated. They have since rebounded to $1,263 but have stalled again… We remain bullish towards gold generally because we feel the financial markets are vulnerable and we see negative interest rates as a positive for gold. More to the point, we sense a significant shift in sentiment from institutional investors, who have been buying ETFs aggressively this year.
“For now physical demand in Asia seems weak but lower prices may lead to a recovery in demand in Asia. If so, ETF buyers may have to compete with Asian buyers for physical gold.”
Gold ended the week down $4.30, closing at $1,235.10. Silver prices closed at $16.33, up $0.87.
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Spot Gold Hits 4-week Low as Risk Appetite Returns
Kitco News:
Guest(s): Bill Baruch
Risk appetite is back in the market and gold slides this Wednesday.
Does the yellow metal still have a chance to move higher?
Chief market strategist for iiTrader Bill Baruch says that despite Wednesday’s moves, gold is still up 15% on the year and still above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Gold prices ended the U.S. day session sharply lower, with spot gold hitting a close to four-week low Wednesday.
The safe-haven metal was shunned as investor and trader risk appetite has picked up.
April Comex gold settled the day down $24.60 at $1,224 an ounce.
'Gold is down sharply after not being able to get out above $1,261.9-$1,263.8 when it had every reason to do so yesterday morning,’ said Baruch. ‘The bears are now in control as gold is at the lowest level since before last Wednesday’s Fed meeting.’
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Gold Rallies On Safe-Haven Demand As ECB Rattles Marketplace
Thursday March 10, 2016 13:24(Kitco News) - Gold prices were solidly higher and poised to close at or near a 13-month high close in late U.S. trading Thursday. Safe-haven demand surfaced as U.S. stock indexes sold off and the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply in the wake of today’s announcement of the monetary policy easing measures from the European Central Bank. April Comex gold was last up $15.10 at $1,272.60 an ounce
The highly anticipated regular meeting of the European Central Bank saw the ECB initiate fresh monetary stimulus by cutting its deposit rate by 10 basis points, cutting its refinancing rate by 5 basis points, and increasing the amount of its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing). Those moves were deemed to be on the aggressive side of market expectations. The Euro currency initially dropped sharply and to a new six-week low on the news, while the U.S. dollar index initially pushed to solidly higher levels and hit a new high for the week.
However, once ECB President Mario Draghi started his press conference after the ECB meeting, he made remarks that were deemed as less-dovish and implied the ECB may not lower interest rates any further. Draghi’s remarks really spooked the market place and the Euro currency and U.S. dollar index swiftly reversed courses—with the Euro pushing sharply higher and the USDX dropping sharply lower. U.S. stock indexes also reversed early modest gains and were holding solid losses in early afternoon trading Thursday. Safe-haven gold benefitted from this extreme turbulence in the marketplace today.
Many traders and investors now reckon that with the ECB Thursday essentially “going all-in” on its stimulative monetary measures, their quiver of arrows is now empty—which is very unsettling. There is also renewed talk in the marketplace of just how effective the monetary policies of the world’s major central banks can be going forward, after so many years of easing policies. Again, this notion plays right into the hands of the gold market bulls.
The huge moves in the currency markets Thursday hint of a possible major shift in trader and investor psychology and may be another signal that the raw commodity sector has seen its bust cycle finally play out and that “hard” assets like gold will in the coming weeks and months continue to gain favor over paper assets like stocks and bonds.
In overnight news, China’s consumer price inflation was a bit hotter than expected, which did put some downside pressure on China’s stock indexes, with the Shanghai index down around 2% on the day. The higher-than-expected inflation data makes it more difficult for China’s central bank to initiate monetary policy easing measures.
New Zealand’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 0.25% Thursday, which was surprising to Asian market watchers.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Prices are in a nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00.
Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at today’s low of 1,237.50.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,280.70 and then at $1,290.00.
First support is seen at $1,260.00 and then at $1,250.00.
Kitco News 3/10/16.
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“Golden Cross” May Indicate This Is Perfect Time To Buy Gold
The UK’s Daily Express newspaper recently explained why a technical analysis of gold prices may be signal to buy gold now.
“The key technical level occurs when the 50-day moving average surpasses the 200-day moving average - literally crossing each other on charts. The 'cross' has in the past been taken as a cue to buy among some traders and momentum-driven investors.
“Gold tends to be a 'safe haven' where investors stash their money in times of financial turmoil. In the years following the financial crisis, prices of the precious metal jumped to record highs of $1,900 an ounce, before dropping back down as the recovery kicked-in.
“In recent months prices have been climbing back up amid fears of another global crisis… Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault in London, said: ‘Worsening fears over negative rates and political risks like Brexit have led the return of some money managers to gold. A fast-growing number of private investors have also begun buying gold as insurance.’
“However, experts have cautioned against buying into investment fads, such as the 'golden cross'. Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: ‘There are some traders who swear by the patterns they see in charts on their screens but I would be wary of following these signals, particularly if you don't intend to keep an very close eye on them and use them to sell out as well.
“’The reason to hold gold in your portfolio is as a hedge against catastrophe, but it should only ever make up a small part of your portfolio, no more than five to 10 per cent….’” (“Why this 'Golden Cross' graph is PROOF it's the perfect time to buy gold...”, Express, 3/2/16.)
...even @ 1258/oz this weekend, still time to get in.
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Gold Sees Some Profit Taking As Risk Appetite Upticks
Tuesday March 01, 2016 14:16(Kitco News) - Gold saw some profit-taking pressure set in Tuesday, following recent gains. An improved risk appetite on this day also worked against the safe-haven metal. Still, some profit taking and chart consolidation is not unhealthy for a market like gold, which is in a firm near-term price uptrend. April Comex gold was last down $3.10 at $1,231.10 an ounce.
There was a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday, including the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, and domestic auto industry sales. The data was a mixed bag but was upbeat, overall. That helped to boost the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar index, and put some downside pressure on gold.
Global stock markets were also mostly higher Tuesday, despite some dour economic news coming out of China. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in February--the lowest level in over four years. A reading of 49.4 was expected. A figure below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The downbeat China PMI report led to further speculation that China’s central bank will implement further monetary policy easing moves, and that was actually a bullish element for Asian equities Tuesday. China’s central bank on Monday lowered its reserve requirement ratio for banks.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session low. Prices are still in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the February high of $1,263.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at 1,200.00. First resistance is seen at $1,240.00 and then at $1,250.00. First support is seen at $1,225.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,216.30.
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Gold and Silver Prices
Gold prices were lower on Friday due to profit taking despite a recent report that the U.S. economy grew at a lower rate than projected. Nonetheless, gold remains on track for its best monthly gain since 2008.
“Gold is heading for the best monthly gain in four years as concerns over global economic growth spur demand for haven assets. Those same worries explain why silver and other precious metals aren’t faring as well… Gold has been the beneficiary as financial-market turmoil, declining crude oil prices and signs of a weakening Chinese economy vex investors, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will be slow to raise US interest rates further.
At the same time, the prospect of a slump in manufacturing demand has reduced the appeal of silver, which gets about of its half of demand from industrial fabrication… ‘Gold certainly has done extremely well with uncertainty around the world and with the idea that interest rates won’t be rising. Until global growth comes up, the gold-silver ratio will continue to widen.’”
U.S. Recession Could Send Gold to $2000 – Walker
During a discussion with three forecasters regarding China’s currency, economist Jim Walker warned of a new U.S. recession and a return to record gold prices.
“Asianomics Group Ltd.’s Jim Walker, who predicted the yuan’s four-year advance would end a month before the currency peaked in January 2014, is forecasting a U.S. recession and says 10-year Treasury yields will plunge to all-time lows. Raoul Pal, publisher of the Global Macro Investor report and a yuan bear since 2012, says European bank shares will tumble by half. John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, who has argued since 2011 that the Chinese currency should weaken, sees the risk of heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East as lower crude prices strain the budgets of oil-rich countries.
“While all three forecasters see scope for further declines in the yuan, they’re also emphasizing risks outside the Chinese economy as the outlook for world growth dims and commodities trade near the lowest levels in more than 15 years. Their bearish stance has gained traction in global markets this year, with share prices from New York to Riyadh and Sydney sliding as investors shifted into gold and sovereign bonds…
“When he looks beyond the Middle Kingdom, Walker says a contraction in the American economy will send 10-year Treasury yields to 0.5 percent by the second quarter of 2017, from 1.74 percent on Friday. He predicts gold will surge more than 60 percent to $2,000 an ounce this year as investors flock to haven assets.
“’It’s not looking good for the U.S.,’ he said in an interview in Hong Kong.
Walker’s predictions, like his yuan call in December 2013, are out of step with the consensus. The median forecasters tracked by Bloomberg see U.S. growth of more than 2 percent this year, while they project gold will end the year at $1,115 an ounce and yields on 10-year Treasuries will rise to 2.74 percent by the middle of next year. (“China's Yuan Bears Predict More Trouble Ahead,” Bloomberg, 2/21/16.)-
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Gold Extends Early Gains As U.S. Stock Indexes Sharply Lower
Wednesday February 24, 2016 10:21(Kitco News) - Gold prices are trading sharply higher in late-morning dealings Wednesday, boosted on more intense safe-haven demand as U.S. equities are selling off sharply. Risk aversion has markedly increased at mid-week.
April gold futures are moving in on the February high of $1,263.90, and if that price level is taken out on the upside, buy stop orders would be triggered to send prices still higher. Gold prices have also Wednesday seen a bullish upside technical "breakout" from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily bar chart.
If world stock markets remain unstable and with a downside price bias in the near term, gold prices would continue to benefit and likely push sideways to higher. April gold was last up $29.80 an ounce at $1,251.90.
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If gold went to $64,000/oz, there would be a few of us on DV who wouldn't need to wait on the dinar any more.
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Gold's Correction Is 'Healthy' After 'Spectacular Run,' Says HolmesBy Daniela Cambone of Kitco News
Monday February 22, 2016 15:37(Kitco News) - It was a one-way market Monday as gold prices ended the U.S. day session about where they started -- solidly lower. However, one chief executive officer is not worried about the close to 2% dip.
‘We have had a spectacular run and it is healthy to have a correction,’ said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, a Texas-based investment management firm.
Profit-taking pressure from recent gains, a higher U.S. dollar index and a generally improving risk sentiment in the world marketplace are all working against the safe-haven metal.
The yellow metal slipped as much as 2 percent on Monday but prices managed to remain above $1,200 an ounce after a rally that pushed prices to one-year highs this month. Gold has outperformed most assets so far this year with a 15% gain.
Spot gold was down 1.6% at $1,208.60 an ounce by 1:58 p.m. EDT, off a session low of $1,201.63. April Comex gold was last down $20.30 at $1,210.40 an ounce. March Comex silver was last down $0.288 at $15.085 an ounce.
‘Gold is up two standard deviations…o math is in favor of a correction short term,’ Holmes said in an interview with Kitco News. ‘Historically we get a pop in gold for the Chinese New Year – if we go back just one month ago, gold was down one standard deviation. The markets will correct,’ Holmes stressed.
On the topic of Goldman Sachs’ recommendation of shorting gold, Holmes, said the bank is ‘brilliant.’ ‘[T]hey always come out when gold is up two standard deviations and say ‘sell’; it is a very biased position, but they are smart when they come out and say it’s time sell gold.’
In other news, the British pound was under sharp selling pressure Monday as London’s mayor has come out against the U.K. staying in the European Union. There will be a referendum held on the matter in June. Holmes said that any currency uncertainty will be bullish for the yellow metal.
‘We are witnessing strong gold buying in London. And last year when gold fell over sixty trading days, one standard deviation, guess what? Gold buying went to record levels. So a possible ‘Brexit’ is positive for gold,’ Holmes explained.
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Gold Rallies On More Bargain Hunting, Technical Buying, And As U.S. Stocks Sell Off
Thursday February 18, 2016 13:33(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session with solid gains Thursday. Some early profit-taking was overcome by bargain hunters buying the dip and by fresh chart-based buying interest—both of which coincided with the U.S. stock indexes coming under selling pressure. April Comex gold was last up $14.10 at $1,225.60 an ounce.
Most world stock markets were higher Thursday, following the lead of higher crude oil prices that climbed close to $32.00 a barrel. However, U.S. stock indexes started to weaken in late-morning trading and were posting losses in afternoon trading Thursday.
Still, this week has seen a strong rebound in world stock markets, following selling pressure early this year that recently drove most stock indexes into, or close to, bear market territory. There are now technical clues the major U.S. stock indexes have put in market bottoms. Gold and silver bulls should be impressed their metals were able to hold up fairly well this week, in the face of better risk appetite in the marketplace.Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls gained fresh upside technical momentum today. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,263.90.
Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 1,191.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,228.80 and then at this week’s high of $1,236.30.
First support is seen at $1,214.40 and then at $1,210.00.
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Gold Rally Is “Real Deal” – Holmes
U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes penned a commentary setting forth the reasons why gold’s bull market has returned.
“[A] after posting three straight years of losses, [gold] looks ready to shake off this trend. Not only is the metal trading at seven-month highs, it’s also on course for its longest winning streak since the glory days of 2011. What’s more, it’s broken clean through its 200-day moving average, a key indicator of growth…
“In a recent report, HSBC suggests that we could be in the early stages of a new gold bull market, one that will ‘probably’ usher the yellow metal back up to at least $1,500. This ‘forthcoming market,” says the bank, ‘has the potential eventually to exceed the speculative frenzy seen in 2011.’
“Historically, gold has had a very low correlation with stocks, meaning that in times of equity pullbacks, the metal has tended to hold its value well. We’re seeing this unfold right now…
“2015 was a red-letter year for demand… In 2015, and so far in 2016, sales of gold coins in both the U.S. and Europe have been nothing short of breathtaking… I always say to follow the money, and right now American money managers and hedge funds are increasing their bets that gold prices will continue to climb…
“In December, the Federal Reserve bumped up interest rates 0.25 percent, the first time it had done so in nearly a decade. But that doesn’t mean it can’t reverse course, and there’s growing speculation that rates could be dropped below zero into negative territory… In a world where you’re charged interest to put your cash into government bonds, holding gold as a store of value suddenly becomes much more attractive. I’ve discussed many times in the past that the yellow metal shares an inverse relationship with real interest rates, which is what you get when you subtract inflation from the federal funds rate. Negative nominal rates in the U.S. might seem like a far-fetched idea, but the Fed has already hinted that banks should prepare for such monetary policy… It would be prudent for investors to do the same.”
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Gold Hits $1,200 Monday And Analysts See Potential For Higher PricesBy Neils Christensen of Kitco News
Monday February 08, 2016 16:14(Kitco News) - Momentum in the gold market has reached almost parabolic proportion Monday, as a major target at $1,200 was reached in intra-day trading.
Defying all expectations, Comex April gold futures have started the week on a strong note, surging more than 3.5% to hit an intra-day high of $1,201.40 an ounce. Prices have managed to hold on to most of the gains, with April gold settling the session at $1,197.90 an ounce.
The question is just how high can prices go?
“Right now it is all about the U.S. dollar,” said Bill Baruch, senior commodity broker at iitrader.com. “The U.S. dollar is falling, U.S. treasury yields are falling that that is making gold an attractive investment.”
Baruch added, that with gold blowing through the important technical level of $1,180 an ounce, is an indication that the market is seeing significant momentum and there is potential for prices to run to $1,230 an ounce in the near-term.However, Baruch added that investors should be cautious about chasing the market higher. He added there should be other opportunities to get into the gold market.
“We are testing some overbought levels but after a move like we have seen today, in this market, you just can’t pick a top,” he said. ““At this points $1,140 represents a tremendous support level. Any pull back to above $1,140 could be seen as a buying opportunity.”
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that he sees potential for gold to hit his target at $1,228 an ounce in the near-term. He noted that Monday’s move was accompanied by higher open interest and higher volume. “It appears that nobody is worried about buying at higher prices today,” he said.
But the market is not without its risks. Lusk said that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be testifying before Congress Wednesday and Thursday, which represents significant risk for the market.
“If [Yellen] comes out and is clearly dovish, I think equity markets could stabilize and that could deflate this gold rally,” he said. “If her statement is unclear then I think more money will pour into gold.”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com said that he sees potential for gold to test resistance at $1,208 an ounce and a break of that could lead to a push towards $1,132 an ounce.
Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, sees a lot of potential in the market, with $1,300 an ounce as an achievable target in the near-term, “especially if equity markets continue to fall.” However, he also warned that the gold market can be extremely volatility.
“There is a saying that markets fall 3-times faster than they rise, so this could mean we could see a $50 fall in gold if this rally fades,” he said.
Streible suggested investors could use a put option to help hedge against lower prices at these levels.
Streible isn’t the only one that sees the potential for $1,300 gold in the near-term. Daren Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN, said that if gold can close above $1,200 an ounce on a monthly basis then his next target for gold would be $1,338, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level from the September 2011 peak to the multi-year low seen in December.
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Federal Reserve Considering Negative Interest Rates To Bolster Economy – CNBC
In a dramatic reversal, the Federal Reserve may move towards negative interest rates to help combat an ever-weakening U.S. economy.
“Less than two months after the Fed enacted its first rate hike in more than nine years, market talk already has turned to whether the central bank's future may not be more hikes, but rather negative rates. Intensifying recession fears, volatile financial markets and moves toward negative rates by other central banks have triggered speculation over whether the Fed may have to reverse course on its tightening policy.
“Negative rates in the U.S. would be a highly unusual move. However, several high-ranking Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President Bill Dudley all have indicated the move would be something they would have to examine should financial conditions tighten and threats to economic growth increase.
“’While not our baseline scenario, if the U.S. economy were to sufficiently weaken we believe the Fed could consider negative rates as a means to ease policy,’ Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note to clients…
“Instituting negative rates has a goal of shocking banks into lending and stimulating inflation, which has been in short supply both in the U.S. and much of the world's developed markets.
“One of the main instruments the Fed could use is on the interest paid on excess reserves. Banks have $2.34 trillion stored at the Fed compared to $99.7 billion required. The Fed pays 0.5 percent on those reserves, so reducing that number or pushing it below zero would be one way the Fed could get money moving again into the broader economy….” (“Negative rates in US? Here's why it could happen,” CNBC 2/5/16.)
....then this opinion piece....
Negative Interest Rates Could Send Gold to $1900 - Lombardi
Financial commentator Michael Lombardi sees the growing trend of negative interest rates to be bullish for gold.
“Last week we heard that the Bank of Japan became the fourth major central bank to embark on the path of the unknown world of negative interest rate policies. The goal of a negative interest rate policy is to boost lending by commercial banks, which in turn is expected to spur economic growth… The list of central banks contemplating negative interest rates is growing…
In my mind, negative interest rates mean paper money is not worth anything. After all, if you have it, you are basically being punished for keeping it. When something like this happens (a negative interest rate policy), you are being penalized for holding cash because your bank will give you back less than you deposited. Because of this, one would assume gold prices would shoot through the proverbial roof as interest rates go negative. Unfortunately, this isn’t happening…
“Just a few years back, gold prices were skyrocketing (reaching about US$1,900 an ounce in 2011) because the global economy was moving toward lower interest rates. Now, we have it worse—we have interest rates going negative—and gold prices are not aggressively sharping back. Sure, gold prices are up nine percent this year, but that’s paltry compared to how oversold gold bullion had become and the new reality of negative interest rates…
“Negative interest rate policies are great for gold. As China further lowers its domestic interest rates to deal with its slowing economy, as the Federal Reserve pulls back on its promise to raise interest rates in 2016, and as more world central banks adopt a negative interest rate policy, gold prices could be in for a banner year in 2016.” (“Negative Interest Rate Policy to Send Gold Prices to $1,900 Again?” Profit Confidential, 2/5/16.)
....if true, $1,173 an ounce is a good time to buy.
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Questions For Adam's Update 9-24-2016
in Chat Logs
Posted
Oil prices are relatively stable, the price of gold is staying above $1300/oz and most likely due to rise. Iraq has plenty of both.
With all that has gone on with Iraq this year: CBI talk, banking, more oil, more gold, security, government, IMF and UN aid, etc...things are actually looking promising.
I know about your 10 cent stance, and believe me...I'm a believer in 'at least' that for an rv.
I was just curious if you've heard anything about a possible rate of 13-26 cents, like a few other middle east countries are currently valued at as well.
Just so Iraq can be 'on par' with some of their neighbors, and take advantage of the resources they possess or have yet to tap into.