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Theseus

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Everything posted by Theseus

  1. did not find a dire warning of the Feds being stripped of the USD rights. I guess this rumor tanked! Did find a cryptocurrency to keep an eye on. Fedcoin Fedcoin refers to cryptocurrency and/or protocol established by a central bank. National banks could forge their own ‘bitcoin’ with comparative ease and bitcoin consultants have sketched possible scenarios on how. In “Some Thoughts on Fedcoin – a Fed backed cryptocurrency” (March 9, 2015), Albert Szmigielski suggests, “[T]he Fed should premine all the currency that they want to issue on a blockchain….A premine happens where all (or part of) the cryptocurrency is issued in the first block, the genesis block. Then the Fed would just exchange the fedcoin for a dollar each.” In the article entitled “Fedcoin” (October 19, 2014), J.P. Koning speculates, “The Fed would create a new blockchain called Fedcoin. Or it might create a Ripple style ledger by the same name. It doesn’t matter which. There would be an important difference between Fedcoin and more traditional cryptoledgers. One user—the Fed—would get special authority to create and destroy ledger entries….The Fed would…provide two-way physical convertibility between both of its existing liability types—paper money and electronic reserves—and Fedcoin at a rate of 1:1.” Koning draws upon the work of mathematician and economist Sina Motamedi for “a more technical explanation for how this would work in the case of a blockchain-style ledger.” Motamedi advises, “The simplest way for a central bank to create its own crypto-currency is for it to fork the Bitcoin protocol into a new protocol that is unchanged in every way except that, going forward, the central bank would set and adjust the block mining reward at its discretion…. [L]ike paper currency, the central bank’s crypto-currency would be both decentralized (in transaction) and centralized (in supply).” Doug Casey Discussions have been encouraged by the attention governments are directing toward Fedcoin. When the Bank of England released a paper (February 2015) that addressed the subject, the bitcoin-processing company Payment21 was not alone in asking, “Bank of England: Why might central banks issue digital currencies?” In America, similar scenarios occur. In June 2016, central bankers from 90-some countries met behind closed doors in Washington D.C. and conferred with bitcoin experts. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen opened the conference, which included the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and Bank for International Settlements. Adopting blockchain as a protocol to facilitate bank transfers was the focus but issuing ‘official’ digital currencies was actively explored. Adam Ludwin, CEO of the blockchain company Chain, delivered a speech entitled “Why Central Banks Will Issue Digital Currency.” Ludwin urged governmental attendees to use the revolutionary shift to create new assets for themselves. A key argument for Fedcoin is the perceived need to stabilize a cryptocurrency by pegging it to traditionally-issued money. The pegging would not necessarily be voluntary. Motamedi explains, “just like what happened with paper currencies, central banks will eventually step in to create their own crypto-currency protocols and forbid the use of any others. For simplicity, let’s call the central bank crypto-currency protocol BitDollar. Of course, these BitDollars would always be redeemable in regular dollars by the central bank, at least at first.” Koning is more blunt. “Now is the time for the rebels to figure out how to create a stable-price version of bitcoin, before Darth Vader does it himself. Otherwise they may someday find themselves closing down their bitcoin startups in order to write code for the Empire.” The Why Of It According to Casey Doug Casey addresses America’s central banking system but the circumstances favoring a U.S. Fedcoin are mirrored throughout the Western world. He doesn’t buy the stability theory. The U.S. government is bankrupt with liabilities far exceeding assets. Casey explains, The greenback is semi-stabilized by being “the world’s money” but its privileged status is being shaken by nations such as China and Russia who aggressively seek alternative mediums for global commerce. Casey believes that yesterday’s monetary controls – quantitative easing and interest rates at near zero or below – cannot sustain a bankrupt dollar with waning global relevance. Yesterday’s methods are “going to come to an end….What can they [the feds] do?” What the feds can do is cryptocurrency; Fedcoin is what’s coming to a start. And, according to Casey, the primary benefit to government would be a centralization of supply and a transparency of demand (or transactions), which could centralize control of the economy to an unprecedented extent. Why would people use the cryptocurrency? Fedcoin would almost certainly emerge as a parallel currency which would be adopted due to government requirements for its use in paying taxes or accessing entitlements such as Social Security. Increasingly, however, Fedcoin would become a tool to push toward a cashless society because physical money provides a privacy that prevents government control. Casey observes that the feds, Fedcoin would give the government God-like ability to track wealth. The justification will be to prevent criminal activities such as drug dealing and money laundering. Will the U.S. create a Fedcoin? Counter-arguments can be easily made; for example, most black or gray market activities are peaceful and not properly criminal. But Casey focuses on the harm inflicted on the prosperity and freedom of average people. “[P]eople that are dealing in what’s called the underground economy are actually providing useful goods and services,” he observes. “f the government extracts its 30 or 40 percent in taxes, which they will be able to do now with Fedcoin, [that] is going to hurt the economy, not help it. It will help the U.S. government, but that’s different from the economy in America.” The government would grow richer. It would also become a more powerful engine of social control. In terms of privacy, Fedcoin could become the anti-cash. “If I’ve got a $100 bill in my wallet or a bunch of 10s and 20s,” Casey explains, “I can spend them on anything I want with anybody I want and nobody knows. With blockchain….[the feds] know exactly who’s getting the money and what it’s being spent for. It can be programmed [perhaps through a mechanism simiar to smart contracts] so that certain transactions can’t take place….So you are pretty well blocked in.” Fat people could be prevented from buying sugar; gun owners could be cut off from ammunition; teenagers could be banned from buying beer, cigarettes or video games. The possibilities seem almost infinite. In doing so, Fedcoin would merely extend existing policies under food stamp programs that prohibit spending on alcohol, casinos or strip clubs. The efficiency would be so much greater, however, that the difference of degree would become one of kind. The government could “prohibit anything without even passing a law….If your Fedcoin smartphone or chip isn’t programmed to let you buy that, how are you going to get it?” Politically controversial items, like a gun registry, could become irrelevant. One of Casey’s dystopian predictions seems doubtful to me, however. It is the idea that many or most Americans would embrace being physically “chipped.” But, then, I may simply have more confidence in average people when it comes to recognizing their own self-interest. The Shadow Of Solution? Casey likens the potential currency revolution to the Industrial Revolution. The technologies developed then gave unprecedented freedom and literally ‘life’ to the common man; the human life-span and population increased dramatically. Bitcoin and blockchain are equally liberating to the individual but revolutionary technologies also challenge the status quo. And, so, entrenched powers attempt to co-opt their use. Whether governments will succeed is not clear; they may be thwarted by their own incompetence or by the intrinsic decentralization of cryptocurrencies. It seems clear, however, that governments will make the attempt. And when they do, the best response is a better technology that sprints forward and leaves those who wish to ‘tame’ it coughing on its dust. Those on the cutting edge of technology are today’s freedom fighters. What do you think about the U.S. government creating a ‘Fedcoin’? Let us know in the comments below.
  2. They, Iran, have controlled Basra since the Iran-Iraq war. The ironic thing is when the powers that be talked about splitting up Iraq into three separate parts, the only reason they stopped is that the southern portion (Basra) would be immediately sucked up by Iran. Iran is deep in the pockets of the officials in that area of Iraq, especially Basra. Had the split occur and southern Iraq be sucked up by Iran, Iraq would have lost vital ports and access to the gulf.
  3. Do I think it will RV? Hell yes, I do! When and how much is anyone's guess.
  4. Could never happen. Cannot be a voluntary withdraw of cash has to be involuntary meaning to make the crap illegal under the pnealty of death. Send a few people to the gallows to show this means biz. No one will want a dollar inside iraq.
  5. Can you tell me how you define "change is not far away" because ATMs checked since the previous summer, continual change to their systems so that even a rat would be so confused it would be like/, ah heck no I ain't moving until you give me the gd cheese electronic banking systems, uh say whut? They have had that for a while, they keep changing it so which new systems are we talking about? The new system, the new new new system or the newest new new new new system? Only thing that seems to change in Iraq is my money into the pockets of the politicians.
  6. Be careful, just because I said I would defend your right to speak doesn't mean I won't try to put you in your place when your words are wrong.
  7. Bitcoin is the world's most expensive fiat currency, ounce for ounce. (Okay think of your computer as a coin). There very embodiment of a fiat currency is 99% of all cryptocurrency. There is absolutely nothing backing up bitcoin in terms of gold, precious metals, an economy of any sort other than the belief it has worth. People believe cryptocurrency is worth such and such and they will pay such and such. A lot of pundits believe crypto is a fad as their opinion stemmed from it, more specifically - bitcoin, not being truly tested in the open market. And it was recently tested, oh boy, was it ever. It lost over half from its all-time high in a very short period of time, not a very good sign for a currency trying to replace the world's currency. Cryptocurrency is considered a high risk and prone to high volatility, not not worth investing in but at the same time not an investment for low-risk investors. It's the reason JP Morgan Chase dropped it all together. For me, cryptocurrency still needs to be put through the wringer (tested via the market) as it continues in the mainstream. Right now those who are pimping it with "educational classes" for thousands are increasing their wealth not off of the currency but because of the currency. There is a difference. Is there a place for the cryptocurrency, if you believe in a one world order and one world currency there is. I can totally see the reasoning and rationale behind the currency but a currency that loses over half its value in a short time (months not years) is too volatile for the average investor at this juncture. The average investor panics too quickly and any sign of trouble usually drops the investment tout suite (pretty damn fast). Wealth does not happen when you hold onto something, wealth happens at the point of exchange. When bitcoin was hovering around 17K per and let's say you had 100 coins, you could make the argument that you had 1700K in bitcoin, but if you never traded it at that price point your real worth was whatever you paid for it. However, if you held onto it into the next year your stand in bitcoin dropped to nearly half that but again, your worth in bitcoin was what you paid for it. If you bought in at 12K and got out at 17K you made money. However, if you bought in at 12K held onto hoping the stairway to heaven would keep rising only to see it fall and fall you lost if you exchanged below 12K. However, if you still have it, bought in at 12K, and haven't exchanged you are still neutral and haven't lost nor gained any wealth because you haven't exchanged it. The exchange is when wealth creation or depletion happens. Until you exchange it, its just pixels on a screen worth whatever you initially paid for it. This holds true for any investment.
  8. On 8/29/2018 at 2:10 AM, lmb4321 said: Hey Adam.... this is the take Theseus sent us about the date about the Monetary Reform.. and the SBA agreement with the IMF in July 2016....he later stated it might be 2023 before the Rv might happen Just wan to hear your take..... ______________ This is the post in which people say I said 2023. _______ 3% chance is better than a 0% chance, wouldn't you agree? As far as "the huge collective balloon of anticipation" I have stated as much going back to when the SBA of 2016 first appeared on radar and have been lambasted for saying such. I have held firmly to this conjecture that the RV will not happen without the IMF's blessing and the successful completion of the SBA of 2016. What Iraq has been working on, has achieved and continues to work on is based on the SBA 2016 and the suggestions of each subsequent review. Each review is first a review of the benchmarks previously set up and then suggestions going forth. The CBI has not met all of the benchmarks and has had those that were missed waived. I do not see July 19, 2019 as an RV date but as the opening of the window for the best chance, Iraq has to RV after such date. So it could be 2023 before an RV or it could be 2019 before an RV. I am saying that the chance will be greatly increased once the IMF signs off on a successful completion of the SBA of 2016. Could it happen before then? Sure. But the saying goes there is a slim chance in hell that it will. Why? Once the GOI is officially seated, then it becomes the budget season for the formation of Iraq's Budget of 2019. Historically, very little major legislation has been passed during this period. Based on a history of the GOI, the budget will need to be completed and passed, which takes us from August 2018 into February/March of 2019. Given this, Ramadan, closely follows in May of that year, May 5 through June 4, little to anything will get done from April to the end of Ramadan but this is not to say backroom dealings will go on like it has in the past. However, the GOI will be distracted with its new formation for the first month and the budget may get little to no attention until beginning September, pushing everything back. Seeing an RV before the implementation of the 2019 budget and successful completion of the 2016 SBA is a non-sequitur, meaning it does not logically follow given the history and past experiences of the GOI. _____ The 2023 part lies in between two sentences in which I am explaining my opinion (we will get back to that) to which the best chance for an RV to happen. The second sentence states it could be as late as 2023 OR as early as 2020. Please if you are going to quote me, do so right. I do not believe it will be 2023 but as I rightly recall: there was another big blow up on this chat board where people did this same exact thing and tried to put words in my mouth before. At that time I was shouted at and told to shut up and whatever else. Probably cussed at a few times too. In that big blow up I stated as I stated in this thread I believe the RV will not happen until the 2016 SBA is complete. People were up in arms, someone told me that Iraq was going to RV that year because of some sort of accounts they were getting. Was told many things, did they RV, no. Why? Because of the 2016 SBA is not complete. What happens if they don't RV when its complete either in the summer of 2019 or the beginning of the year in 2020. Who the heck knows? I don't. Adam doesn't. Anyone outside of the CBI has is conjecture, opinion, speculation. My opinion is just that and its based off of my analysis. But then again I am not pumping for dollars nor will I ever. You have never heard me do so and you will never hear me do. I can understand why people would be upset and I understand why Adam said what he said. But never once did I or have I ever said the RV was not going to happen which people said I said in the beginning. Nor did I ever say the RV was going to definitely happen in 2023. I have said look at and read the SBA and the subsequent reviews. You have a checklist of waht Abadi is doing and attempting to do for that period of time. I haven't wavered from that analysis since it popped up in July of 2016. I know the value of the dinar will have to go up and where Adam and I disagree is the amount the dinar will be when the RV happens. I originally stated the dinar has to be on par or greater with the dollar for the Iraqi's to see their money is worth anything. What is funny is that I stated the psychological ramifications of this and Yota posts an article that came out after I stated this. The RV isn't for me nor is it for anyone else but the Iraqi people. We receive the side benefit from the RV. I also stated in that thread people are people and they act differently than when they are losing than when they are winning. The Consumer Confidence Indicator is a great view of the American psychological view on how they view their money as it correlates to their life and happiness. The same is true with Iraqis. This thread was between me and another. I stated then that that person needed to work on reading comprehension. That was me being facetious. Now wondering if others do too. But aren't we all just expressing our opinion with a little facts thrown in to?
  9. I would like to appeal to those who be hypocrites by saying they are all in favor of Free speech yadda yadda (bullcrap is bullcrap no matter race color or creed) in long posts but try to silence those who do speak in whatever manner they choose to. All in the name of good decency, patriotism, and frackin morality. I am a disabled vet. I almost gave my life in the service of this country, some say I even gave more as my life has been forever changed. I will stand up and fight for the right of Shabs or the Easter Bunny, if he exists, or anyone else in America who has a different opinion than I do. I listen to them and show them where they are wrong. If they choose to listen, that is on them. Decency, morality, and patriotism come with the price of blood so that people can give voice to their opinion rather than have it silenced. Fake news? Let em write it. Let em speak it. Let em shout it from the Halls of Montezuma. Patriotism iand the freedom of speech sn't about hiding behind a wall of censorship (shutting someone up because you don't like what they are whining about) but rather let them have the light of day to put forth their argument. Yeah, I am tired of fake news and tired of the whiners and the left trying to destroy this country as are 1000, maybe umpteen thousand more organizations. However, a voice spoken in freedom is worth a fifteen thousand times more than one spoken at the barrel of a gun or the blade of a sword. Be your own voice, your own person. Be accountable for what you say, how you say it and what you say. You have something to say, say it, as long as it does not infringe on the rights of others, say what you will. Do what you gotta do, but do it with a modicum of honor, dignity, and integrity and without the hypocritical bullcrap. Opprobrium is unbecoming of a true patriot. Again as long as it does not infringe on the rights of others, say it, shout it, sign it, write it, put it in skywriting for all I care, but as god is my witness, be prepared to defend what you say. You get a red whatever, someone spoke their opinion. They want to say it anonymously, they are cowards but they spoke and let their voice be heard. Whiners are those who do not take up the battle and prove to people why the red whatever was wrong. Sure say nothing but are you saying anything? There is a time for silence and there is a tie to be heard with your voice. When good people say nothing when they should have said something then bullcrap like this happens. Want to stop the fake news, say something. A voice that is silent when it needs to be heard is no voice at all. Be brash be blunt if you have to but be be effective with your words. Get a thesaurus if you need to master the english language. Likes and cute little thumb up and thumbs down are for lazy people. Its how emoji's got started in the first place, because people didn't want to type every single word out in a chat room (before the age of texting came along). However, emoji's are still voices of the people who use them and for that I will stand with those that want to use them.
  10. China hacked Hitlary's servers and got in real time copies of all email to and from her email. Therefore there can be only one conclusion...Trump colluded with the Chicoms!
  11. add the following: Unbecoming conduct - too vague. 0bummer smoked cigarettes in the WH. This is against Federal law and unbecoming conduct. Dereliction of duty - I cannot recall come to mind? No. Try the failure to prosecute those responsible for the deaths of the Ambassador. Hitlary? Too vague. Intimidation - you mean like what Trump is doing to Sessions trying to get him off his arse to investigate Hitlary and her foundation? Abuse of authority is subjective or are you referring to the I have a pen and phone president? Refusal to obey a lawful order - we are talking the President here, the buck stops with him (eventually her) he gives the orders. Or unless you are talking about the previous POSPOTUS who refused to enforce the lawful order of the law. As you see I can name three hundred thousand actions (okay I exaggerate a bit) the former POSPOTUS did that rose to the level of a High Crimes and Misdemeanor that you have listed. Again this is subjective and a conviction is not necessary to convict a sitting President.
  12. Sure it might cover all of what you listed and then again it may not; however, as I stated, the phrase "High Crimes and Misdemeanors" as found in the Constitution is never defined in the document. This alludes to the premise that this is a moveable goal post. Meaning if Nixon could have been impeached and removed from office for Watergate, the same activities could be considered shameful 40 years later but not rising to the level of High Crimes and Misdemeanors (*cough err Fast and Furious 0bummer). This is one of the most controversial phrases found within the Constitution and there is actually very few Constitutional Scholars that will agree on every crime that rises to that level. Another example, Clinton lying under oath caused his impeachment; with a different president in office, this did not rise to the level of an impeachable offense. This phrase, while most think what it means, is considered a living phrase in a living document which changes meaning and context when set in the current political environment. A final example, there is no crime for collusion with the Russians yet the demoRATS think it rises to the level of impeachment meaning it is o the same level as High Crimes and Misdemeanors. You could rattle off 10,000 crimes and misdemeanors of what that phrase entails, but if Congress thinks that if a plastic drinking straw served with a coke is a high crime and misdemeanor, it becomes an impeachable offense. You forgot to add murder, dueling and war criminal to that list.
  13. On 8/25/2018 at 12:34 AM, nstoolman1 said: On what? He has not committed a crime much less been convicted of anything. Any thing he has done as citizen Trump prior to being elected can not be used against him. The last part is not actually accurate. A sitting President can be found to have lied to attain office and sway the vote of the people in his favor. Thus he fraudulently attained office before taking the Oath and therefore can be impeached and removed from office should Congress elect to do so. High Crimes and Misdemeanors is vague and there has not been a consensus on what those are entirely. Since this overly broad phrase is not explicit, nor will it ever be, Congress has the flexibility to try to impeach the President on pretty much anything they wish. It is up to the people to determine if this is acceptable or not.
  14. Impeachment does not have to have a conviction for a crime because impeachment is a political tool found within the Constitution. The Articles of Impeachment are drafted in the House of Representatives which then vote on those Articles. If it passes the President is then technically Impeached. Two-thirds of the House of Representatives must vote "Aye". Should two-thirds of the House vote aye then the Articles are sent over to the Senate which then completes a trial based on the Articles of Impeachment. The Senate if they find the President guilty then decides on a punishment. Only two Presidents of the United States have been impeached - Andrew Johnson in 1862 remained in office and Bill Clinton 1998 remained in office. Nixon, although he faced impeachment, resigned before being so. Nixon is the only President to resign from office. Neither Johnson nor Clinton were convicted of a crime merely the accusation of a crime being committed. In Johnson's case it for violating the Tenure Act in which he removed the Secretary of War from office. In Clinton's case, it was for lying under oath. While both are accused of the crime and strong case could be put forward that the crime was indeed committed, both Presidents were never adjudicated and found guilty of the crime in question. Meaning neither was found guilty by a judge and/or jury in a court of law for the crime committed. Something the Constitution has indicated cannot happen with a sitting President while tendering his duties of the office. Since no crime was ever adjudicated, this makes impeachment a political tool to oust a sitting President due to a mere accusation of High Crimes and Misdemeanors. Logically, if a strong enough case is put forward and a two-thirds vote in the House is approved, Trump can be Impeached. Then it falls on the Senate to try him and remove or not remove him from office.
  15. Your reading comprehension needs work. Starting with the sentence: Theseus: “You have better, then come forth with it prove it to everyone that given the facts shown will produce some other result” You interpreted it to mean: Me: I had better come forth with proof you say? A little threatening, no???? No, the sentence if stated: "You have better come with proof" would have been a threatening statement. Since the original statement includes a comma and the word "then" the statement becomes a suggestion that "if you have better facts then come forth with them". There is nothing threatening about the original statement. Sorry, you were triggered about that. A comma makes the difference. Next, you seem to hang on the 2023 date which was an arbitrary date pulled out of the air to make a point. Again, your reading comprehension is suspect here because I have always stated after the completion of the SBA 2016 which ends in 2019. After could be anytime after that and the 2023 date was to highlight that fact. The fact the financial projections in the SBA of 2016 go out to 2021 could give a potential clue of an RV happening any time between 2019 and 2021. I never said an RV of $1.00. I said equal to the dollar or greater. It could be a dollar and could be more. I was actually given a possible figure of $1.16 when presented with this investment. It could be a penny; it could be as high as 3.00 USD. I stated my reasoning for this in an earlier posting. (removing the three zeros .00086 would put it at .86 USD to 1 dinar bringing it to 1.16) You confuse "high horse" with confidence. You attack me rather than the analysis and which is why I make this response. I have a firm belief in what I espouse but I also bounce things off of people to get feedback and their opinion. Your response to the lower denoms, I believe is right and have said so a while back when I am under the understanding that Iraq would like to pair their denominations with that of the US because it would make it easier for educational purposes at this point. Of understanding that Iraqi's are using dollars in their daily transactions. Also, a lot of countries use these denominations (1,5,10, 20, 50 and 100). When it comes to the 25,000 dinars that will go away should Iraq. Again when I was presented with the investment I was told Shabibi preferred the summer to the beginning of the year for an RV. Since the SBA of 2016 ends in July 2019, this gives perfect timing. However, I have stated in the past maybe 2020 due to the fact that if the RV does not happen in the summer of 2019, then the next chance would be the beginning of the year in 2020. People have bantered around several times in which this could happen. El-Eid, the end of Ramadan when Iraq has been known to gift the masses. At the end of March into April, which is the end of the first quarter. The end of June, beginning of July, when the new session of the GOI ends/begins. End of September/October when the third quarter ends. All of these dates have been bantered about. However, Shabibi did say best time was summer and if not, the beginning of the year for an RV. Your opinion is based on the facts as you have them. Again they are not mine. I stated my opinion based on the facts as I have them. You know when I first stated this, people scoffed and howled at me just like you did. Every year they said "this is the year" and I held firm. In all of that time, I would have loved to be proven wrong on so many accounts. However, since July 2016, we sit here in 2018 with no RV. As to the post, the SBA does not tie in with the RV, I would have you go back over the SBA and the suggestions from the first and second review. While economic policies and financial policies come from the subsequent reviews, these policies as suggested by the IMF tie in directly with monetary policies leading to an RV. And you are right the RV is not explicitly stated in the SBA but neither was it stated in the 2009 SBA when Shabibi tried to RV in 2012 which was stopped. But think for a moment and connect the dots. What is needed for Iraq to RV, what infrastructure and policies are needed to RV beside the HCL? Nothing really, not even the HCL. So what is holding Iraq back? Follow what Iraq is accomplishing, follow what Iraq is trying to accomplish, and you have a checklist of items found within the SBA Iraq is following to come closer to an RV. You could say they are naturally doing this, but were they really under Maliki? Another discussion for another time.
  16. First off it's not my timetable. Second, I have the facts that are presented based on media reports and other websites. They are not mine they are Iraq's. You point your disappointment in the wrong direction. I only call it as I see it and that is my opinion. You responded to my post as the most disappointed post you have ever read. Next time why don't you keep the comment to yourself because at least I am not telling you that I had a dream last night and something big is going to happen Thursday for the umpteenth time. You have better, then come forth with it prove it to everyone that given the facts shown will produce some other result. I have been saying this since the SBA 2016 was known to me and modified it when needd. I have stated since 2014 the HCL (not the agreement with the Kurds) needs to be implemented not passed. What I stated in my post is nothing I haven't stated before and will continue to hold to those. I remember a very long thread about a year or two years ago, people said that Iraq would do this and that and they would RV that year. Did that happen, nope. Will it happen this year? Do you honestly think given the fact that the GOI is not seated, the 2019 budget has not been passed and while the third review of the SBA 2016 was discussed in November 2017, it has yet to be conducted much less reported on, the HCL only 1/3rd of the way done, Erbil agreement still not policy, article 140 still in contention, ISIS (still) and Iran (sanctions, southern Iraq protests, Solemani) mucking things up for Iraq, that an RV will happen this year? I can say with 120% certainty that it won't because of what is going on in Iraq, currently. I have and will continue to maintain that the RV will not happen before Iraq completes the SBA of 2016. They tried to do it after the SBA of 2009 and that attempt led to other things but it is what convinced me that they will do it this time around mainly because of Abadi and what he has accomplished and will accomplish when he regains office. The facts are Iraq's. I can only put analysis to those facts to interpret them in my best fashion. I don't claim to have all of them only what I have seen with my own two eyes. All analysis is speculation and all speculation is based on opinion and experience. You don't like it, form your own and share it. No one is stopping you from doing so. Please tell us when you think the RV will happen. Come on give us your best guess and your reason for guessing the way you do, based off the facts you have. It might change things and it might not but to come to the table and decry an analysis without even presenting a different one other than "I hope it will happen this year" doesn't add to the conversation.
  17. Everyone hopes the analysis is wrong and Iraq RVd the dinar yesterday, hell 5 years ago. But the fact is Iraq is currently in an agreement with IMF to work on their economy and there is a checklist they must accomplish before they successfully complete that agreement. GOI isn't seated yet and there will be no major policy changes until they are. So whine and moan and claim this post or that post is the most disappointing all you want but the facts are the facts and they tend to be disappointing when they aren't aligned with what we want when we want. What is even more depressing is getting told year after year this is the year in which the RV will happen and being here year after year to see no RV going into Budget Season. Being lambasted by people who because they believe "this is the year" and yet cannot point to a single fact as to why this is it. People getting all hyped when a single grain of sand moves. When people cannot separate emotion from the investment. When people don't get the RV they wanted when they wanted is the biggest disappointment. When people pay with your emotions because something or someone (not a Luigi guru) has told them that it will happen, already has happened or will happen within a day, a month or within the current year. How people have not figured out the GOI legislative cycle as to when things need to be done and what occurs during that cycle. When Iraq has holidays and how long they will be out for. Yeah, there is a lot of things to be more disappointed in but I guarantee that post is the furthest thing from one of the most depressing posts you have ever read. Hell yeah, I wish the analysis is wrong and it RVd five years ag,. but wishes are not facts and unicorns don't fart rainbows. There is one single fact you must remember: No one knows but the CBI when the RV will happen. Take that, remember it and hum a happy tune until it does.
  18. While Adam is excellent at what he does, I am in disagreement with a couple of things. First, I agree the HCL must not only be passed but a full implementation of the HCL must be up and working. Just because the HCL is passed in legislature is not enough for an RV. The reason here is that there are certain logistical barriers that must be traversed before the HCL is really up and running. Think of it like this, I want to create a program for you to use on your computer. I haven't tested it. I have never put it into a live environment. However, I make all the promises of a fully running program that you will be able to use once you sign the paperwork. Do you use the program? Sure the technology has been in use before I come to you with the idea but the specific idea has never been tested or put together before on your system. Logically, no one would take receipt of such a program until it has been fully tested and vetted t make sure there are minimal to no bugs in the system. Just because the HCL is passed through the legislation does not mean an immediate RV. It has to be first passed, put in the gazette, then it has to have its infrastructure formed and then tested. While some may say some of it is going on now, the argument here is that while this is true, integration testing and implementation has not been done. Second, any RV above 0.01 will be good for some. However, will it be good for Iraq? I am in the camp that the RV must be either on par with or greater than a dollar and then float from there. While a ten cent RV may be a start, it would still be wildly undervalued at that rate and would not de-dollarize the Iraqi economy. There are ways around this from the government perspective, i.e. making the dollar illegal. However, this would open black market opportunities and effectively make the 0.10 RV as worthless as it is today given the current rate. I subscribe to the belief that in order for the RV to be beneficial to the average Iraqi, it either must come out equal or greater than the dollar. The dollar must be seen in the Iraqi's eyes as being obsolete. They must be empowered to have the equal purchasing power that the USD affords today in Iraq. Without this psychological view and tangible asset, the de-dollarization in Iraq cannot happen rendering the RV moot. This is very much a psychological as it is tangible because it plays to the moral of how Iraqi's view their sovereignty as a nation. Using a national currency that one can take pride in will boost morale, confidence and people will want to spend their national currency. It's taking pride in one's own nation and moral is psychological in nature as money governs our spending, savings and investment behaviors. Iraqi's will go through a period of trying to survive day to day to an abundance of wealth and will want to put that new found wealth to use thus increasing their overall behavior and moral. A football team acts differently when its loosing than when it's trying to maintain its status quo than winning. People are people all over the world. They are predictable in behavior and Iraqi's are no different when it comes to how they will act and be governed when they have a sense of positive self-worth. They are more fatigued over this than any one person on this board. They are ready to move forward into a new era of prosperity just as much as you, as I or as anyone else waiting for the RV. Lastly, the RV is just the beginning. If it comes out at 0.10 then in all likelihood it will be expected to appreciate in value. How the RV happens and what controls are put in place will determine the speed at which it appreciates. Having the triggered pulled is one thing but the governance of the dinar, once the trigger has been pulled, is the real battle. Think of it like this, you are going to bike across the USA. You need to purchase the equipment, the clothes. You need to plan the routes you will likely take. You need to train all the while each day brings you one step closer to the start of the cross-country bike ride. The day it happens you are pumped, you probably couldn't sleep the night before as a gazillion things running through your head. Then the day comes, you put your foot on the pedal and push with all of your force you can muster and your bike travels 0.10 of a foot. But before long each pedal stroke propels you 1.18 feet and then 2.05 feet for each stroke before finally settling down into a rhythmic cadence in which you can sustain of let's say 2.35 feet for each stroke of the pedal. Along the way, you may speed up and slow down, but your bike moves ever forward to complete the journey. The rules of the road govern your speed and direction. There will be stop lights and stop signs, there will be obstacles to overcome and days when you feel as if nothing is going right. There will be other people in cars traveling faster and other bikers who travel slower. Along the way, you will meet and greet new friends, to which most you will like and some outright despise. You will need sustenance to keep your pedals moving and replacement of equipment. You may get a flat tire or a chain link may break. All the while you take pride with each stroke to know you are accomplishing something, anything to which will change your life for, hopefully, the better. The RV is the first push of the pedal. Everything that happens afterwards is what I am more concerned with.
  19. 3% chance is better than a 0% chance, wouldn't you agree? As far as "the huge collective balloon of anticipation" I have stated as much going back to when the SBA of 2016 first appeared on radar and have been lambasted for saying such. I have held firmly to this conjecture that the RV will not happen without the IMF's blessing and the successful completion of the SBA of 2016. What Iraq has been working on, has achieved and continues to work on is based on the SBA 2016 and the suggestions of each subsequent review. Each review is first a review of the benchmarks previously set up and then suggestions going forth. The CBI has not met all of the benchmarks and has had those that were missed waived. I do not see July 19, 2019 as an RV date but as the opening of the window for the best chance, Iraq has to RV after such date. So it could be 2023 before an RV or it could be 2019 before an RV. I am saying that the chance will be greatly increased once the IMF signs off on a successful completion of the SBA of 2016. Could it happen before then? Sure. But the saying goes there is a slim chance in hell that it will. Why? Once the GOI is officially seated, then it becomes the budget season for the formation of Iraq's Budget of 2019. Historically, very little major legislation has been passed during this period. Based on a history of the GOI, the budget will need to be completed and passed, which takes us from August 2018 into February/March of 2019. Given this, Ramadan, closely follows in May of that year, May 5 through June 4, little to anything will get done from April to the end of Ramadan but this is not to say backroom dealings will go on like it has in the past. However, the GOI will be distracted with its new formation for the first month and the budget may get little to no attention until beginning September, pushing everything back. Seeing an RV before the implementation of the 2019 budget and successful completion of the 2016 SBA is a non-sequitur, meaning it does not logically follow given the history and past experiences of the GOI.
  20. September date is about a 3% chance of happening. In November of 2017, the discussion on the third review was done from the 17th to the 21st, 2017 and the report at the time discussed the 2018 budget. This third review is crucial because the machinations of having everything setup to RV must be completed by August 2018, when IMF should begin reviewing Iraq for the third time. Now the seating of the new government could delay the completion of the third review by two months or so but it will be in the Summer of 2019 that is the best chance for an RV. A final review might also be needed but nothing has been said about this. Why? The IMF, if finding the the final review of Iraq as acceptable, will then give the green light. I know almost everyone is saying only the CBI can pull the trigger and they are right but the CBI is waiting for the IMF to give a green light (permission) to do so. I believe should the IMF find Iraq progressing, meaning all the objectives of the second review have been worked on in an exceedingly progressive manner, then and only then will the IMF give the green light for Iraq to pull the trigger. In 2012, there was conjecture that the RV happened. What brought about the RV at the time was a 2009 SBA. IMF is assigning Iraq homework. Iraq is doing the homework and being graded on it. If Iraq passes then they will be certified to RV just like they were in 2012. Once the 2016 SBA is completed, have everything in place agreeable to the IMF, then and only then will the window be open to RV. One other thing, I do not think it will happen as soon as the SBA is deemed complete. It might take a few months but the window opens up around July 19, 2019, the completion date of the SBA of 2016.
  21. When you say "down the road" what type of farms are being put out of business? If these are family farms, how were they doing before the tariffs? Also what part did the larger farms play in their downfall as larger farms having been putting family farms out of business for the last ten to twenty years. A large guess would be the larger farms had more of a hand in putting these family farms out of business.
  22. Last year during Iraq budget season, Xchange of America raised their prices 100.00 and people said we were close. They have done that for the last four to five years. They really cannot raise the price anymore because that would stop people from buying it. They raised the price when the dinar lost value. In order to keep the hopium alive they needed something that would keep their sales going and bring back customers that have already bought to buy additional amounts. Sending out the email also hits those who are emotionally exhausted with this investment. Xchange of America doesn’t know any more than Joe Scmoe off the street. Its a marketing ploy pure and simple. Besides when this does RV, while I may have bought from these guys, it will not be a dealer I sell too, but rather a bank with a much lower exchange rate. IDR already RVd a couple of years ago. They couldg again but it would be much more expensive.
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