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Theseus

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Everything posted by Theseus

  1. If they need "one more reading to pass the law" has the law been passed? No. Disagree all you want, the law has not been passed. Nor has the HCL or the implementation of 140. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. 20K notes will come out to bring Iraq in line with the currency practices of most of the world. More importantly, it brings it in line with USD currency which employs 1, 5, 10, 20 and 50 dollar notes. As has been discussed on this platform before. I don't care about Blackrock but look at what the world Central Banks are doing, they are tightening their policies thus making recession unlike we have seen before more likely. And if the world goes into a very deep recession this will give Iraq another excuse not to RV in the 20s. The GCR may be the WEF and the UN but it is no where near coming to an end. Every US president that has been assassinated has been so because of their views on currency and where it should come from. One reason why people really don't want Trump back into office. That is another discussion for another time.
  2. Who told you they were Art. 8 compliant? Because they meet the requirements of 2%? Iraq still employs MCP (using both the USD and IQD for everyday purchases) and with that it does not make them Art. 8 compliant per the IMF.
  3. Really? The first to the 29th of January 2023? Let's look at a few items that have come out: 1) The fact that Iraq's CBI has stated they will be releasing 20,000 IQD notes at the end of 2023. Which blows the RV happening in January 2023 out of the water by itself. This is saying they are not removing the zeroes until after 2023. Second they are spending money on the design, plates and printing of the these notes. The 20,000 note also brings into line with most of the world's currency practices of 1, 5, 10, 20, and 50 notes. CBI has already said they are not going to print 100K notes. 2) The fact that Iraq's CBI has stated that they will be releasing coinage around 2026. 3) The White Papers is the formula they are using to point to an RV between 2025, 2026, and 2027. As stated by several officials the rate will be this ways for years. Of course no one really knows except Iraqi officials in the CBI, the IMF and the World Bank. They will know before anyone else. 4) The GOI has yet to pass the Iraqi Oil and Gas Law, the HCL, and the implementation of Article 140. 5) The GCR will play a major role in the RV and whether or not the IQD will remain pegged to the USD. There is movement to unpeg the IQD from the USD after the RV stabilizes. Iraq history has depegged from Western currency before so it is not uncommon for Iraq to depeg from the USD. 6) Listen to what Blackrock is stating about the Central Banks next year on recession. Blackrock is stating that we are going to have a recession like any other because CBs are tightening up their policies rather than helping fight inflation. While there may, and I stress may, be movement in a positive direction, moving the rate back to the December 2020 rate, it will not be a very large move as they, the CBI. will want to keep to the 2% rule the IMF set to get into Art 8. MCP stands for Multiple Currency Practice, meaning a nation and it's citizens are using more than one currency for their internal transactions in their economies. Example using both the USD and IQD to purchase everyday goods and services. AT this time Iraq, even with the consolidation of the banks on who can sell the USD, is still employing MCP. A strong consternation for the IMF. While Iraqis may be getting paid in IQD, those same citizens are exchanging that for USD to increase their purchasing power. Be patient Iraq has turned the corner. The RV will happen, just not anytime in 2023.
  4. The White Papers plan is between 2025 and 2027 (latter date with the implementation of coin rollout). You still have a few years to go. Also, after the exchange rate was changed to 1450 then 1460 back in 2020, an article came out quoting a committee member stating that the rate was only supposed to be this way for a year then go back to the previous rate (what it was the day before the change in Dec 2020) but the GOI said no. I was not saying $1.81 would be the rate or anywhere near it. You have 2,000 dollars in your bank account. Do you blow it all? Not at all. You hold some back. Same with Iraq. They are not going to come out with 1.81 rate as it would break the bank. You will be lucky to get a 1.16 to 1 rate, if that. Also if Parliament changes the rate to the previous rate as they are on track to do so, one has to ask the question, does the CBI actually have autonomy over the currency rate in Iraq? If you answerr correctly, you will then come to the conclusion not only can the CBI change the rate but Parliament also has the authority to change the rate. So who actually will pull the trigger? The CBI or Parliament? Answer: IMF!
  5. If the budget is sent to parliament in March and they need two months to approve it, don't forget Ramadan starts at the end of March 2023 and lasts through April 21. Thus the Budget will take May and June to be approve giving a date of July before it is passed. That is if they do not work through Ramadan as they are known not to do.
  6. You might want to finish reading the article: The people's demands to return the dollar exchange rate to its previous era may not be achieved, especially with the catastrophic mistakes caused by private banks and the great role they play in demonizing the Iraqi economy through money laundering and currency smuggling abroad, which delays the dream of return until the government takes control of these banks.
  7. Doesn't matter given all the reserves, gold and other reserves, Iraq cannot sustain a $5 rate. It can barely afford a $1.81 rate. Add up all the reserves (convert gold to dollars using tonnes conversion rate) and then divide by the totality of Iraq's currency, circulated and uncirculated which is roughly around ~41 trillion dinars, give or take. It comes out approximately around 1.81. It might have gone up or down a few cents since I last calculated that rate.
  8. I remember saying 2025 then they added the coins and I pushed it back by 1 year. to 2026 Should they decide to implement this plan it would be within the timeline of the White Papers (implemented in January 2020) to delete the zeros by 2025 and come out with an exchange rate of 1.09 IQD (just shy of Shabibi's rate) to 1 USD. Giving us a 91.7 cents USD per 1 IQD. Which is a tad bit better than Shabbi's 1.16 IQD to 1 USD. Again given they hold fast to to deleting the three zeros.
  9. You are not going to get back to a Sadam era rate anytime in this lifetime. Again, the rate Saddam had the rate at, even the speculators said the IQD wasn't worth but half of that. The $3+ dollar rate is a pipe dream (as in crack pipe dream) for an RV for the IQD. Not when the world speculated it wasn't worth but 1.65 USD per IQD. And when they say "previous rate", they mean the rate before it was changed on Dec 19, 2020 which was 1186. Before that it was 1166. During Saddam's era the IQD was not at a "normal rate" rather an "inflated rate" set by Saddam. A "normal rate" during Saddam's era would be around the 1.65 USD exchange rate. And people have shown and even the news articles that have been posted on here (including Shabibi) have said that Iraq could not sustain a $1.65 exchange rate. The very most Iraq could top out at would be no more than $1.81 USD per dinar and that is pushing it to the very extreme. It is why Shabibi initially said a 1.16 IQD to 1 USD exchange rate would be best. Which is roughly 86 cents USD per dinar. Right now it is roughly (if we removed the three zeros first) approximately 68 cents USD per dinar at the CBI exchange rate of 1460. The current market value exchange rate (given the three zeros removed) would still be only 67.8 cents USD per 1 IQD.
  10. You cut amd pasted too soon. Keep reading further and you will have your answer. It is a 1% per month decline after the rate is set to 1375. Or 10% or more per year. For example if the dinar is set to 1375 on Dec 19 (taking the 2020 date as an an example) thus it would take one year and three months to get to the previous rate of Dec 2020 (which would be March 2024 at a rate of 1194) and take until December 2024 to get to the rate of 1091 IQD to 1 USD. 1) This is not a big jump rather a slow draw down. 2) If they stick to what they said the draw down would look like a managed float increasing the worth of the dinar. Here is what it would look like: January 2023 1375 - 0 = 1375 February 2023 1375 - 13.75 = 1361.25 March 2023 1,361.25 - 13.61 = 1,347.64 April 2023 1,347.64 - 13.48 = 1,334.16 May 2023 1,334.16 - 13.34 = 1,320.82 June 2023 1,320.82 - 13.21 = 1,307.61 July 2023 1,307.61 - 13.08 = 1,294.54 August 2023 1,294.54 - 12.95 = 1,281.59 September 2023 1,281.59 - 12.82 = 1,268.77 October 2023 1,268.77 - 12.69 = 1,256.09 November 2023 1,256.09 - 12.56 = 1,243.53 December 2023 1,243.53 - 12.44 = 1,231.09 January 2024 1,231.09 - 12.31 = 1,218.78 February 2024 1,218.78 - 12.19 = 1,206.59 March 2024 1,206.59 - 12.07 = 1,194.53 April 2024 1,194.53 - 11.95 = 1,182.58 May 2024 1,182.58 - 11.83 = 1,170.75 June 2024 1,170.75 - 11.71 = 1,159.05 July 2024 1,159.05 - 11.59 = 1,147.46 August 2024 1,147.46 - 11.47 = 1,135.98 September 2024 1,135.98 - 11.36 = 1,124.62 October 2024 1,124.62 - 11.25 = 1,113.38 November 2024 1,113.38 - 11.13 = 1,102.24 December 2024 1,102.24 - 11.02 = 1,091.22
  11. 1) Kurds stopped sending oil profits to Baghdad because Baghdad stopped paying Kurd wages. Major point of contention. 2) Kurds have always kept a good portion of the oil profits and not told Baghdad about ALL of the profits. Major point of contention. Points 1 and 2 are the major obstacles when Baghdad and Erbil come together each year before the budget can be passed. They play the he-said-she-said game. 3) The 17%, or thereabouts, has been in the Budget law. A law with a definitive start date and a definitive end date. Once the law expires, everyone including the Kurds have to go back to the drawing table to negotiate the next year's budget. (I say next year's budget with a tinge of sarcasm due to the fact that 85% of the time they are still negotiating the "next year's budget well into "the next year"). 4) Until a more stable law (one that does not expire without legislative interference) is passed, Baghdad and Erbil will always be on this merry-go-round of negotiations with the Kurd oil, no matter what the Iraqi Supreme Court has to say. In other words as long as Iraq keeps themselves in this endless cycle of passing laws in the Budget,, a one-year law in and of itself, they are not permanent and hold no validity past their expiration date. Case in point, the oil profits from the Kurds. Anything placed in the Budget law is only good for one year, unless a law is passed outside of the budget law.
  12. Also, "the neighboring countries, companies, banks, and those who control the economy may resort to a game that leads to its collapse, which also leads to a double loss of the dinar's value against the dollar," according to the expert. Hogwash. This is nothing more than fear-mongering. "The neighboring countries" have not collapsed nor has their currency had a double loss against the dollar. When the exchange rate was changed in December 2020, the rate was only supposed to be at that rate for only one (1) year. One year only. This article is to make the GOI look like they know what they are doing from an expert standpoint when they really have no clue. In that time since the exchange rate was changed, the White Papers came out and was implemented. The one year magically became 4 to 5 years via the White Papers. Notice in the roll out of the coins they state they will be deleting the zeros proceeding the roll out of smaller denominations. Thus from the implementation of the White Papers, 5 years becomes 2025 to 2026 for the implementation of the zero deletion project and RV. And the roll out of the coins becomes 2027. So by this schedule an RV will happen anywhere between 2025 and 2027. (Unless they add more to this at a later date).
  13. All purchases one makes has an overall psychological effect on the purchaser. In the United States that psychological effect is called Consumer Confidence.
  14. Well at least they have some sort of documents unlike those that "do not walk over the Southern US border". (I guess they float/climb over.)
  15. Okay people with a rational sense understands why a 20,000 dinar note is to be issued by Iraq. Let's take a look at this rationale. 1) Most countries have paper denominations in 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100. Since these are the most denominations of paper currency for most countries, it only follows suit that Iraq would do so as well. 2) Removing three zeros would make the specified dinar notes become: 250 dinars => 0.25 dinars (parallel to the twenty-five cent piece in the US) 500 dinars => 0.50 dinars (parallel to the fifty cent piece in the US) 1000 dinars => 1 dinar (parallel to the one dollar bill in USD) 10,000 dinars => 10 dinars (parallel to the paper currency of the ten dollar bill in the USD) 20,000 dinars => 20 dinars (parallel to the 20 dollar bill) 50,000 dinars => 50 dinars (parallel to the 50 dollar bill) 25,000 dinars => has no comparison to US currency and most likely will be done away with in favor of currency parallel to the 100 dollar bill) Now why would Iraq do this? Because the Iraqis' main form of currency, at this time, is the USD. This means when they do remove the zeros, RV or not, there will be no need to educate the Iraqis on the denominations in their currency. It would be like the Iraqis have always used the dinars going forward. Lastly, there has been talk on this subject going back to before, years before, the pandemic. Some of us knew they would be implementing new denominations, most likely the 20,000 and 100,000 denominations so that the currency was more on par, denomination wise, to the USD after the RV since Iraqis use mainly the USD today. This was foreseen as to happen and there is a lot more to this subject than just implementing the 20,000 dinar note. So sit back and enjoy life as we await the RV event to come Iraq's way. One other note, a 3.63 to 1 RV would be great but it is a pipe dream. There is no chance when the RV happens that it would come out at that amount as the IMF would not allow it in a tumultuous Iraq. In addition, the dinar even when it was artificially inflated was not worth that amount, 3.63 to 1, and really only worth about 1.65 per dinar, if that, at its highest point.
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