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Theseus

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  1. The CBI in question is Central Bank of Iran and posted August 5, 2019 TEHRAN, Aug. 05 (MNA) – Central Bank of Iran’s forex market will be inaugurated later than the predetermined date i.e. August 12, 2019, an official from the central bank (CBI) said on Monday. Informing that the decision has been made under the direct order of the governor of the CBI, the official added that performing the required experimental tests have been commenced. In early January, Money and Credit Council (MCC), the highest banking policy-making body of CBI, approved establishment of an integrated forex market as the CBI aims to explore the real volume of demand and supply in the foreign currency market through a new mechanism. While this mechanism is planned to organize the transactions in the forex market between the exchange shops, some also say that it may omit other exchange rates, including NIMA rate, gradually. NIMA (Iran’s Forex Management Integrated System) has been launched in early July to allow the exporters of non-oil commodities to sell their foreign currency earnings to importers of consumer products. On May 25, some news websites reported that NIMA will be omitted once the integrated forex market is launched, although CBI governor dismissed the news, saying that NIMA is a pivot of the foreign currency exchange and trade related activities in the country and it will not be omitted from the forex market at all. While CBI does not support the idea of omitting NIMA, some are supportive of such an approach and say that an integrated forex market can replace NIMA.
  2. Take note, this is from a day ago Share on Twitter Share via Email Print this page Comments Middle East UN Warns Islamic State Leader Plotting Comeback from Iraq By Jeff Seldin July 29, 2019 07:45 PM The chief of the Islamic State group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, purportedly appears for the first time in five years in a propaganda video in an undisclosed location, in this undated TV grab taken from video released April 29 by Al-Furqan media. Margaret Besheer contributed to this report. The Islamic State terror group's self-declared caliphate may be dead, but its leaders are hanging on in Syria and Iraq, dreaming of the day when they can again direct attacks on targets around the world. The conclusion is part of a sobering assessment in a newly released quarterly United Nations report on IS, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which warns the epicenter for the terror group's budding renaissance is Iraq, "where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and most of the ISIL leadership are now based." "The leadership aims to adapt, survive and consolidate in the core area and to establish sleeper cells at the local level in preparation for eventual resurgence," the report cautioned. "When it has the time and space to reinvest in an external operations capability, ISIL will direct and facilitate international attacks." In the meantime, the report warns the terror organization, "has continued its evolution into a mainly covert network," since the fall of Baghuz, the last territory it held in Syria, this past March. While the assessment that Baghdadi is operating mostly out of Iraq is new, the other warnings are similar to concerns voiced by U.S. officials and others dating back to last year. Islamic State ‘Well-Positioned’ to Rebuild Caliphate Destroying the Islamic State is proving more difficult than the United States and its allies envisioned, with the most recent intelligence assessments warning that the self-declared caliphate is well-positioned to rise again. For months, U.S. IS "is well-positioned to rebuild and work on enabling its physical caliphate to re-emerge," Pentagon spokesman Commander Sean Robertson told VOA last August. "This is not the end of the fight," U.S. Special Representative for Syria, Ambassador James Jeffery, said this past March, following the fall of Baghuz. More recently, a report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said the terror group is poised for a comeback that "could be faster and even more devastating" than when it first swept across parts of Syria and Iraq. ‘Devastating’ Islamic State Comeback Within Sight, Report Warns Having strategically ceded ground to US-backed coalition, Institute for the Study of War warns terror group is already reasserting control in Iraq and poised to retake territory in Syria Intelligence from U.N. member states anticipates that "comeback" will take place in the Syrian and Iraqi heartlands, where IS has the majority of its estimated 10,000 to 15,000 fighters, many in clandestine cells. Echoing U.S. intelligence and military assessments, the U.N. report stated IS operations are more advanced in Iraq but that its operatives are still able to move freely across parts of both Iraq and Syria. The group's attacks, which seem to be coming with increased frequency, appear aimed at frustrating the local populations, for example burning crops in northern Iraq to prevent any steps toward recovery and stabilization. "Their hope is that the local populations will become impatient, blame the authorities and grow nostalgic for the time when ISIL was in control," the report said, adding member states fear it may be working. At the same time, intelligence officials said IS is effectively using its media and propaganda arms to maintain relevance until such time that it is again ready to strike on the global stage. Islamic State Terror Group Ramping Up Video Messaging US Counterterror officials, analysts, warn the terror group’s media operatives are regrouping, intent on showing the world ‘ISIS has not been defeated’ Adding to the concerns of intelligence officials around the world are the large number of foreign fighters that may still be at large, either in Syria and Iraq, or in the surrounding countries. U.S. counterterror officials estimate that more than 45,000 fighters from 110 countries flocked to Syria and Iraq, almost all to fight for IS. As of earlier this year, as many as 10,000 were thought to be at large, having escaped the fall of the terror group's caliphate. But the new U.N. assessment warns that number could be higher, and that "up to 30,000 of those who travelled to the so-called 'caliphate' may still be alive." Fears Grow Islamic State's Foreign Fighters Ready to Carry On This is part one of a four-part series. WASHINGTON — Even as the Islamic State’s caliphate was clinging to life with its last defenders cornered in a small town in northeastern Syria, the terror group managed to shock those who would eventually see it die. Instead of waiting out about 1,000 civilians and 300 or so hard-core IS fighters who had retreated to Baghuz, the U.S.-led coalition watched for weeks in late February and March, as upwards of 30,000 civilians and 5,000 fighters, slowly surrendered. “Very much unanticipated,” a senior U.S. Despite all this, the U.N. report finds IS still faces some significant challenges, especially when it comes to money. While IS still has an estimated $50 million to $300 million in revenue left over from its self-declared caliphate, the group "is reported to lack liquid funds to run operations," according to the report. As such, member states told the U.N. that IS operatives have become more dependent on crime while also trying to profit from legitimate businesses. IS has also become more dependent on provinces and its more established affiliates, so it runs the risk that its agenda will slowly become less international and more regionalized. And it continues to face stiff competition from its main rival, al-Qaida, as the two terror groups battle in Syria and Iraq, and increasingly in parts of West Africa and the Sahel, for followers. Al-Qaida, itself, also faces a somewhat uncertain future, at least in the near term, according the U.N. report, with its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, "reported to be in poor health and doubts as to how the group will manage the succession."
  3. First, the outgoing CBI Gov was actually long rumored and many wanted him gone as being a stooge for Maliki. Second, the GOI would have seen this report before it was made available to the public. If it wasn't I would be surprised because that is not the way things work. Someone asked when this review was done. Before this review was submitted to the IMF board, the last mention of the SBA between Iraq and the IMF was like in November 2017. All was silent until the IMF review team said they completed this back in May 2019. Due to this timeline, the review was done at the beginning of this year until about March/April 2019 (I am leaning more towards March due to the published date of when the review was to take place in a previous IMF document on the 2016 SBA). There were a few articles out right before the completion of the SBA and the end of the review in May about how Iraq should break the IMF deal because of the internal stirrings that the IMF was dragging their heels. As to ISIS, remember the time when Abadi was to declare Iraq free of ISIS then it was delayed. ISIS was still in Iraq and it wasn't until the latter part of last year and a few months into 2019 that ISIS remained a formidable force in Iraq. Although it was small, it still presented a danger to Iraq. Iraq was not a secure as most thought it was. One of the reasons why we (the USA) have stayed there. Remember Trump secretly flying to Iraq on Christmas day last year? ISIS was still in Iraq then which gave rise to the reason of the outcry to the President's security. So yes, ISIS was very much to blame but Iran and Maliki are much more to blame than ISIS.
  4. "sizeable fiscal loosening" is not what you think it means - an RV. Have you ever loosened your belt after eating a rather large meal (gluttony). In the report "sizeable fiscal loosening" refers to Iraq's excessive spending not a move towards RV. Didn't miss it. I said this was a mixed report that wasn't good for Iraq. The aforementioned article explains why.
  5. I know a lot of us were waiting on this report from the IMF but quite frankly the report was mixed. While it had its good points, the board was not pleased when they noted "The SBA went off track after the second review in August 2017, and expires in July 2019". The main conclusion of the board stated that Iraq met the criteria for post-program monitoring (PPM) and Iraq's outstanding obligations to IMF are expected to remain above the SDR 1.5 billion threshold until April 2020. While I personally do not see an RV happening this year or next, due to the nature that Iraq has to address the weakness in the two largest banks and in public sector investments. Iraq also needs to address a risk strategy with oil prices. Maybe the reason for addressing the oil ministers next week rather than an Oil and Gas Law draft meeting. The IMF specifically pointed out - Financial sector. Bank supervision should refocus on the two largest and troubled state-owned banks, which need to be audited and restructured prior to recapitalization over the medium term. - 27. The authorities were unconvinced of the urgent need to modify fiscal policy settings. The authorities also viewed reining in current spending as undesirable politically and socially at this stage, and signaled their intention for another expansionary budget in 2020. (These two above statements are why I see no RV happening this year or in 2020. Although the next window might, might be, might be the Summer of 2020. It is a possibility but the percentage of happening is not too high) Going forward we should see Iraq addressing the following: - See restructure work on the two largest Banks Rafidain and Rasheed (R&R) - See audits conducted on the R & R banks - Improvements in public sector investments (key to other countries rv) - Better bank tracking systems - Strengthening of the anti-corruption framework - Implementation of the recommended Debt, Investment, Growth and Natural Resource (DIGNAR) model I want this RV to happen as much as anyone; however, with a mixed conclusion and knowing that Iraq went afoul of the SBA in 2017, I began to have my doubts about the RV happening as soon as we all would like. The charts show projections out to 2024 and an exchange rate of 1182 in 2024 but these are just are standard 10 year numbers for financial projections. This does not indicate the RV will happen in 2024 or after, nor does it indicate the RV will happen sooner. The original projections from when the 2016 SBA was agreed to were not correct. For example the reserve remained above the original projections when the SBA was agreed to. So the exchange rate at the bottom of the charts after 2020 I take notice of but do not take stock in them. Anything really after 2 to 3 years is just guess work and to be taken as a guide. If Iraq does implement the changes this year and next, those numbers will definitely be incorrect. The good news is that the current program rate of 1190 is projected to be 1182. Honestly, this was just not a good report for Iraq and an RV of the dinar. I remain strong in the belief that Iraq will reinstate their revalued currency in the Forex market, but that date, in my view, has been pushed back until at least after April 2020 (which is roughly less than a year). And why I feel the next window of opportunity will be the Summer of 2020, but that timeframe is pipe dream at this time. It all depends on how well Iraq does in the coming months. August starts the new budget negotiating season. Look forward to the new budget being passed quickly.
  6. The table lists dates in Chronological order consistently. Eid ul Asha is slated for August 10 and 11 in 2019 and Islamic New Year is Friday August 30 and ends Saturday August 31. The dates on the tabl at the link are asteriked, meaning that they are approximations to when the table was created. These two still occur in August. Also the New Year occurs after Eid ul Adha and the table shows the first for the New Year but after Eid ul Adha in August. They are trying to show it will occur around that time of the first of September. Unless the first of August comes after the 14th of August, chronologically.
  7. You faced slapped but you know I am right. Had you said the department had the "purchasing power" of up to 1 million USD then that would be a different story.
  8. This is an incorrect statement. The Lawn Fertilization Department allocated 1 million IQD would have 1 million IQD after an RV, not 1 million USD. Let's assume the RV rate isn't a par exchange but rather 1 dinar is equal to one US penny (as you have claimed the RV will happen at awhile back). In your example the Lawn Fertilization Company would be way underfunded. Does that make sense? Not in the slightest sense. . Let's try to understand why this does not make sense by looking at the one dollar bill in the United States. If I took that one dollar bill anywhere in the United States and asked it be exchanged to pennies, no matter the bank I would get 100 pennies. Now if I were to take that one dollar bill to a bank in the EU, I would get only 90 cents for it (not counting the transaction fee). A dinar in Iraq is going to be worth a dinar in Iraq. If I take two 25K notes and exchanged it for a higher value note I would get 50K dinar note, no matter what the worth of the dinar was to the USD or Euro or any other currency. However, in your example I would be getting far less than 50K dinar should the worth of the dollar be higher than the dinar. Inside of Iraq the dinar won't change value, a dinar will be worth a dinar will be worth a dinar. The owner of the goods and services will then decide upon how many of those dinars they need in exchange for their goods and services based on various factors and conditions. Only when the dinar is taken out of the country or exchanged for another currency does it hold leverage, positive or negative, against another currency. The Lawn Fertilization Department allocated 1 million dinar before the RV will still hold 1 million dinar after the RV. Only when the Lawn Fertilization Department does business in the dollar or does business outside of Iraq would the statement hold that a par exchange happen, but only for the transaction amount not for the full budgeted amount. The department would not be overfunded based on the exchange rate.It might be over-/underfunded in other ways but the analogy you used in this example is simply not true. This is one of the reasons why Iraq will more than likely de-dollarize along with the RV once the dinar has been reinstated into the global currency market. From an outside perspective we view the 1 million dinars in terms of dollars because we are familiar with what one dollar is worth. My other thoughts about this subject: When Iraq reinstates their currency back into the global currency market before it RVs, I have a strong opinion that circulated dinar will not be allowed outside of Iraq and current circulated currency will have a very short echange period. I have been waiting for this to appear in news articles because it would make sense at the time of RV and exchange. However, the issue becomes what to do with circulated dinar currently held outside of Iraq. Iraq clears this by replacing the current denominations with the new. The question has been asked several times on the window of exchange period. For circulated currency, I speculate 1 to 3 (really pushing it) months maximum. Uncirculated currency would be the 10 years, maybe. This issue has always bugged me and why I have stuck to uncirculated dinar.
  9. More like float to above 3. Shabibi stated he was after 1.16 at RV. If they deleted the three zeros, today, it would be around 1.19 to buy and 1.17 to sell. However, it was Sadam who put the Dinar to over 3. At the time there were people in the industry who stated that at that time the dinar was way over valued and really was worth half of that. They claimed the dinar was really worth only 1.62. If it starts out at 1.19 then floats the first goal would be to see if it reaches the 1.62 price point and check out the support and resistance at that time. If it does shoot up to above 3, I am not convinced, at this time, it will stay there for long.
  10. Anyone else notice the differences in the two photos above? Hint the guy on the right has a different color tie on and appears to have changed suits.Any other differences that can be pointed out? The guy on the left? Look at arm placement.
  11. Been saying this since 2012. Have been lambasted, harassed and more. Yet the mods are the ones who give me warnings and let these people slide by. I coined the phrase a grain of sand moved, it must mean an RV tomorrow, this year etc. When these people don't like what you have to say, for example, they said the RV would happen this year (2012 through current) and I have stuck to until after 2019. Was told by many I had little info and had no idea what I was talking about. Yet here we are in 2019 and no RV, no Oil and Gas Law. The IMF controls the trigger, don't care what anyone has to say about that. The IMF is the one that will give the approval for Iraq to enter Article 8. Think about that. Think about why I say that. Which governing body controls the Article 8? The IMF. If Iraq crossed all the t's dotted all the i's, implemented Article 140 and passed the Iraqi Oil and Gas Law and had a fully seated government, it would still be the IMF to approve or disapprove Iraq going into Article 8. It is the IMF who will give the CBI the green light to RV. Then and only then will Iraq's CBI to choose a date and pull the trigger. If you disagree, then you don't understand how the Central Banks and the IMF have evolved over the years. Think the Fed Reserve is bad, the IMF is even worse. The most important document until this point will be the release of the report from the committee on the latest SBA. If the IMF didn't need to green light the RV, sure it could be done at any time. Yeah we have all heard no one knows, but the IMF will know before Iraq knows when an RV can happen. Think about something else for a moment, who is behind the program rate changes? Iraq? No. The UN? no. Then who? The IMF in all cases have advised and told Iraq to change the program rate. Iraq could not change the program rate from 1166 to 1188 to 1190 with out approval first. Where did they solicit this approval? Who did they go to? The IMF is controlling the ball here. The IMF will then hand the ball off to the CBI so they can land on a moving deck and RV this currency. And yes with this last election and rereading some documents, I am not sure how close after the SBA is completed they will RV. It could be extended out to 2021 or beyond. Or it could be in 2020. I personally think the Oil and Gas law is an important piece of legislation for the citizens of Iraq but am firmly coming to believe it is not necessary to have an RV. The IMF wants Art. 140 to be implemented but that too, I am coming to believe is also not necessary. Art 140 of the Iraqi Constitution is an internal matter that needs to be worked out between the Kurds and Iraqi's. The goal of IMF would be to see successful implementation of this, but the Kurds were denied a nation state when the ME was divided after WWI during the tenure of the League of Nations. Because their territory, in their eyes, was stolen from them it is a much deeper matter that can not be hashed out in a few years.
  12. Developing countries trying to boost their economies are turning to China and in doing so are finding out when the China man cometh, they are in a world of hurt. The Chinese are strategically investing into countries around the globe for vital resources. South American countries are finding this out as well as African countries. China is after the oil and when a country cannot pay, China takes over their oil fields and ports. Doing business with China comes at a cost and that cost is not translated into currency but also government ideology such as communism. Beware Iraq, you play with a fire yet to be unfurled.
  13. I wouldn't read to much into the statement "since 2003" because since the ousting of Sadam, they have done the budget the same way since that time. Now they are going to do it differently going forward. It's like saying I have made 20 dollars a day selling popcorn since 2003 but now I am going to make 20 dollars a day selling popcorn salt as well as the popcorn. Hmm... now I want some nice hot buttery popcorn with popcorn salt.In the end it changes nothing as far as the rate goes because the rate is never in the budget.
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