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jl2nyc

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Everything posted by jl2nyc

  1. Uncertainty... that is the issue now... nothing will change for Iraq until they can get some measure of stability and security in place. Is Iraq on it's way to being a strong country with a functional government, or is this yet another setback to gain some sort of order? We are as close to a break up of Iraq as we are to moving forward with a RV of some sort... in fact it's more likely Iraq will implode before we ever see a change in value to their currency... There is no way this referendum can be seen as a positive development, or a hiccup, or just another delay... Iraq is fracturing and even if they hold it together, we are a long way off to seeing anything changing with their currency. I hope I am totally wrong... but think this ride is over...
  2. nothing was updated today either on the auctions or the rate... they sometimes forget to update the "English" side for days at a time but cannot read Arabic so not sure if that part was updated or not... I doubt it means anything other than they had other issues to deal with than updating their website, like keeping their country from falling into civil war.
  3. I'm starting to think the odds of an RV are the same as winning the powerball... 1 in 292M... It's not "never" but a dilusional long shot at best.
  4. Respectfully I must disagree... ISIS is a real threat, not just to Iraq and with their presence in Syria, but to the entire Middle East. They won't take over Iraq but they are raising the level of violence where even Hamas feels like they need to bomb Israel just to show they're as relevant as ISIS... Egypt has no real influence it seems to broker a peace deal between Hamas and Israel, and the US is showing a remarkable lack of leadership (Obama that is...) And you have Iraq that can barely follow their own rules to seat a government while their people live in 3rd world poverty... Their elected officials act like petulant children, more so than even our Nuthouse Republicans. Iraq is not behaving admirably and the entire Middle East could implode at any minute. VIP section or not and regardless of the cutting edge journalism of USA Today, this is going to take a while to sort out... As always I hope I am very wrong, but we will be lucky to see any significant change in value until maybe even early next year... It could take that long to sort all this mess out...
  5. with you on that, but at this point its 2014... I just hope we're just not talking about it next year at this time!
  6. Well the tone of this chat is a far cry from the "any minute now" super hype we are seeing other places... unfortunately, rightly so... aside from Iraq being out of Chapter 7, it seems we are much in the same place as last year at this time... waiting without knowning "what we don't know" to make this investment materialize... back to the fall grind I guess, which includes putting the IQD in the sock drawer and waiting... Nothing really happens after the 2nd week of November in the financial markets so maybe we have a good 8-10 weeks to see if we get a change in value this year... othewise, see you all in February 2014!
  7. Welcome to Egypt part II... Get elected, then change the rules so you can hold onto power... They wanted George Washington to stay on as President, even be a King of our new country but he said no... Can you imagine anyone on the ME doing that?!
  8. No kidding... Good advice to the newbies... You should hear the diatribe from Eagle 1 posted on Recaps... What a load of BS...
  9. It's still a bit deflating... Most have long ago stopped believing/listening to these knuckleheads, but it does cast a shadow over the entire investment and can't help the process...
  10. perhaps another perspective/concern... Iraq cannot deliver on their natural resources (including oil) without a stable government and a serious investment in infrastructure. Even though banks and other companies are/want to come into Iraq, they won't do so, or expand, with the possibility of civil strife. Maliki seeking to continue his reign, even by revaluing the currency and taking credit for it, won't help (look at Egypt right now). Additionally his involvement with Iran, and the conflicts in Syria and Egypt threatening the stability of the whole region, Iraq could easily slip into civil war regardless of the great strides they have made this year. I fear if Maliki pushes his power play, the people on both sides revolt, and you have Egypt II in Iraq. No one, including the US or Europe, knows what to do to help the situation except boots on the ground and we all know how that turns out... With the right pressures/triggers, Iraq as we know could easily cease to exist in the coming years. The ME has always been a powder keg and right now, there is a really short fuse burning... I hope for the people of Iraq and for the sake of our investment they continue on their current path... But just because they have oil doesn't gurantee their future success. No one in the world is going to give Maliki/another dictator a seat at the global financial table no matter what the natural resources of the country. I think we have a long way to go before we see any change in valuation of their currency at best... As always, I hope I am very wrong but fear our IQD could be as valuable as US Confeserate bills in the near future.
  11. I think they pulled it right away, it wasn't up for very long... Luckily someone had some sense...
  12. I think that was Jester (intel4u) who made the plan A/B statement... It doesn't mean anything... Lew was not going on all the networks to announce this supposed global reset much less a revaluation of a third world currency... Or even give a hint of such things... Obama's administration is in the circle the wagon mode so didn't expect much...
  13. I was with you on that when I read it on recaps, but when I got to the end and the conspiracy stuff started, I discounted the whole post...
  14. The post to start is a farce, I read it earlier on recaps and laughed it off then... "Asian families" and the "cabal" are both signals the tin foil hat crowd is in full swing on the boards...
  15. Wrong again, on all parts! Ramadan starts tonight... see you all in August!
  16. Or it could very well be a LOP... How much of a possibility? No one can be sure, or rule it out completely... Some day soon Iraq will have to start saying what they will do, and do what they have said... I just hope a LOP is not the start of that!
  17. Jaded as I may be, the only people making money from the IQD right now are the dealers who benefited from the flurry of desperate people spending their Friday paycheck on buying reserves after the news on Thursday. We will be lucky if anything is announced before Ramadan and even some sort of movement by September. A lot of positive things are happening for the people of Iraq and they should see the "light at the end of the tunnel", but for us to be able to "cash out" this investment, I'm hoping it will be this year. I think history has proven we "don't know what we don't know" and as usual, there are things that need to be completed well beyond Ch7 being lifted before we can get a return on our investment.... What those items are, no one has a clue except for a very select few... As always, I hope I am wrong...
  18. XE did add the currency symbol to the IQD and to the KWD... No change in the rate though, unfortunately!
  19. No new information of course, but I did get the sense that we won't see anything before Ramadan that will allow us to cash out... They may be moving faster than ever, but being out Chapter 7 is not the "trigger" alone and even that's 50/50 at best before Ramadan.
  20. its not that they are just starting now, I agree they have been working on this for years and things are moving rapidly to a conclusion. I just don't think they will get everything done before Ramadan... There may be things that have to happen yet that we dont know about, even if they are procedural in nature... I think we will be lucky if it gets done by the end of September. Again, I hope I am wrong...
  21. Cautiously optimistic, however... Every milestone we thought important for a revaluation in the past was not the trigger we believed... Even though what we are talking about now makes total sense, rationale thought is often lost on Iraq and we still "don't know what we don't know" about what really needs to happen before a new rate becomes effective internationally. Also, there are few working days before their government breaks for Ramadan so its doubtful they can accomplish in a few days what they haven't been able to in years... Granted this seems different but us cashing in anytime BEFORE Ramadan starts still seems unlikely. As always, I hope I am wrong...
  22. Lets just hope this materializes, AND that his milestone is actually a trigger for a revaluation of their currency... Ch 7 release and HCL were the two main indicators supposedly, but many have thought other items when met would trigger a RV and it didn't happen...
  23. Even with some positive movement, I don't see this happening before Ramadan. As always I hope I am wrong but even if they push, we have roughly 10-15 working days before everyone is on "holiday" over there, and a holiday in the US as well... September is probably more likely as the earliest time for any revaluation and I agree that 2014 is just as valid.
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