|
rockfl9
-
Posts
2,709 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Forums
Calendar
Store
Musicbox
Posts posted by rockfl9
-
-
GOLDEN CARROT !! That's a good one..
The froth is off this Gambit. GME should be down to $50 by weekend. Won't go down to a realistic price for a while.
Now they are jumping to silver, but that is a well diversified market and there could be some real profit made if you play the derivatives.
-
Some of these Covid safety rules are a little extreme . But most can spread the costs over a large market.
HOW did you find out about GME at $40 ????? That price was well before the big break on Wednesday ! But in my mind even $40 would be a ridiculously high price.
Let's see if the price holds over the weekend.
I checked the REDDIT website and there still is a lot of hype on the stock. People are in over their heads.
-
Hi Socal. Tks for stopping by.
I dont see any reason for other than normal 3-4% inflation. Would be almost criminal to raise prices during pandemic.
GME is not on my watchlist so didnt see that action until the close on Wednesday. Obvious to me this is a play to catch a ,lot of small investors . The pandemic created high demand for gaming machines and the company was in the right spot, But that demand could peter out.
A day-traders dream situation , play the dips and get out. Clearly wouldnt hold on long. On fundamentals this stock is only worth $15 at most. There are TON of shorts waiting for the final crash . Dont catch a falling knife.
-
If you believe the real value of the IQD should be based on the ratio of assets to liabilties.
Then 100T dinar in M1 and only $20 Bn in reserves puts the exchange rate at .0002 !!!.
I know the CBI has the rate at .00068 . But they are using a bit of financial engineering. To cover their @ZzZes
-
Synopsis is wrong.
It is normal for the VP to take the oath of office BEFORE The President.
In fact as a precaution, the oath is given to the VP in a private ceremony BEFORE the VP goes to the formal swearing-in ( in at least one istance 2 days before) . That way if ANYTHING should happen to the President-elect we will have a legitimate Chief Executive.
ALSO the plane Biden took into Andrews WAS a government plane ordered by the Secret Service.
g
-
1
-
-
Close enough ! On Feb 1 the MOF will tell them " nobody gets paid till the budget is DONE" . Then it might take 2 more weeks to get the message.
-
I see now that the President of the republic has ordered that parlament
complete and approve the budget in no more than 30 days.
I don't know what powers he has to do that but sure he can put pressure.
-
Parlamentary Finance has been given orders by the COM. The rate and oil price are fixed and can't add to the deffiicit . PLUS they need to approve 5he the budget by the end of the month OR nobody gets paid.
Also the salaries must be reduced.. If not I expect to see the rate adjusted to 1600 or more in July.
-
They intend to build the budget for the ENTRE YEAR at 1450. If the rate were to change the budget must be recalculated. Not a big deal .
Sonia1 is correct, the CBI will buy dollars from the MOF at 1450 no commission. It will sell dollars to banks for 1460 making 10 dinar. The banks will sell to public at 1470 also making 10 dinar . It is a win win deal.
-
This is to be expected....With the rate change it now takes 22% FEWER dollars to buy the same amount of dinar!
Also consider that the GOI needs to preserve dollars. So it will not offer as many.
NOT a signal of anything.
-
1
-
-
The 1450 rate will be in the next budget , parliament can't change that. The rate will not change back. Breitling is WRONG.
Kazimi is on a mission to save Iraq. He knows borrowing more is a debt spiral.
Continuing the 2019/2020 budget levels will wipe out the CBI reserves and when that happens the country will go into default.
The 15% tax and salary adjustments are in question. They must stay in.
Kazimi. 'has one club , he can withhold all salaries , even MPs until they come around.
-
I am amazed. A devaluation hits them in the face, the GURUs tell them it is a GOOD thing and they believe it !!!!!!
This is not a temporary thing . It was broadcast in the WHITE paper. I am surprised the Kazimi team actually pulled it off without a committee. Now we need to see how the rank and file Iraqi's take it ?
Will they suck it up OR will we have protests and riots?
A disruption to the oil flow will make things worse.
Anything brought into the country must go up 20%. plus any tarrifs that apply.
Will it only make the corruption worse,
PLUS with everything taking more Dinar they must print more . I expect to see a 100K note .
-
1
-
-
I Know. But maybe this time is different. This time the MOF can say if not done NOBODY gets paid ! Without these changes and no loan Iraq is TOAST.
It will be interesting to see how the GURUs go from here . Kinda quiet so far.
-
Dinarians are a THICK headed bunch.
The only bad thing about the new rate is it may not be enough,. if the budget is not approved ASAP the conditions will get worse. They need everything to click off Jan 1. If they delay till after the elections ( that is if they can have an election this year). It will take a new rate of 1600 to correct the damage.
for oil to get to only $80 the whole world will have to return to pre-pandemic conditions. Bes estimate now is 2024. Iraqs oil revenues will remain flat.
I know it will be hard to swallow but them's the facts.
This is not a fake move to get Dinar out of the "mattresses" . Iraqi's are not a well educated bunch in financial matters .
Over years the GOI of the day have appeased them with jobs and higher wages. Kazimi and the current council are the first to realize things are out of control. Hope it is not too late.
Take your losses now or hold and take them later.
-
1
-
-
THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE NEGOTIATIONS WITH IMF. Set a new rate 1450. Plus a few other things like reduce headcount, cut subsidies, eliminate entitlements, etc and we will give a new line of credit for $XXBn.
SO . new rate set , check .Eliminate new appointments (jobs) small check . The MOF doesnt need parlament to approve these. The other things like changing the existing salaries, eliminating entitlements , cutting subsidies , dada , dada ,etc.
require parlament approval and they probably have additional time to do.
That will be a big problem. The deputies will have to be educated.
-
1
-
1
-
-
Dont forget Natural gas... Iraq should have invested in than 10 years ago . But it would have taken foresight.
-
NYK . We are getting there. Power transmission is 50% more efficient than 25 years ago. Led lights , efficient AC and refrigeration. It's all happening .
-
The idea that the GOI would fake a devaluation to collect IQD in country is rediculous. the only way that works is for the CBI to sell dollars from the reserves. there is NO GAIN for the bank! It needs to keep all the dollars.
This will be a good lesson in Central Banking.
-
Iraq has to do this now or it will be put off until next December and be worse. A devaluation is the only solution . But the good result is that Iraqi's must find a way to be more self sufficient and not rely on oil. Electric cars are in. The need for gasoline is going away . Solar and wind will provide more electricity.
-
1
-
-
Dinarians should not feel too bad , it seems that Iraqi Economists can't do math either.
2 dinar per dollar after drop the zeros to be $0.50 !!! . 1000 new dinar would be $500 . NO PROFIT.
Once the dinar starts to devalue Iraqi's will want dollars more than ever. But where will those dollars come from , the upply is limited. In order to get new dollars the CBI will have to use its account at the NY Fed and have them flown into the country at the cbi expense. Why would it do that ?
-
Whoops!
International ( think USA)banks will not deal in dinar. Dinar dealers may drop like flies unless they have other sources of income. Total debt will become at least $150Bn.
Also when they compute oil revenues at $42 it means that Brent crude is selling at $50 . There is a average $7 production delivery cost and a slight discount because it is not full Brent quality,
-
No pp, all you big boys and girls have to make and be responsible for your decisions.
I want to offer my opinion.
Iraq has run budget deficits for the last 5 years. This budget deficit, based on last years numbers, is the biggest yet AND there is no one left to borrow from. The numbers are real , in dollar terms $81Bn in expenses and $50bn in revenues. That's a $31Bn deficit , money they don't have.
If they choose not to adjust salaries or the exchange rate ( or both ) the only option is to take the dollars from the CBI ( a fake loan ) and put the problem off to next year. Hoping that the price of oil will go up drastically. Predictions are that WONT happen. With that big a debt International
-
I can do MATH. The GOI doesn't have any better alternatives .
Either choice is trouble.
They will deny it until it happens.
-
There is a RUN on the dollar in Iraq.!
The borrowing law isn't working because the GOI's credit line is gone. So they must balance the budget with MATH.
Either cut expenses { mainly salaries } by 35%OR INCREASE the dinar exchange rate by 30%..It seems the IMF review suggested an increase to 1450 but I think that required cutting other items also .
We know Iraqi's are holding a lot of dinar in there homes , fearing the loss in the exchange rate they are paying a premium for any available dollar forcing the rate up. Maybe buying Euros also.
Before this there was a simple trade in dollars for a small commission . But now PANIC buying has set in.
Cutting salaries and subsidies will be hard to swallow but they can be restored gradually when oil comes and it wont hurt the poor as much. A sharp increase would be a disaster to the entire economy and wipe out many iraqi's savings with a permanent
loss in the confidence of the CBI and banks in general.
STAY TUNED.
The Rush to Conspiracy
in LOPster tank
Posted
It is amazing. Iraq could be 6 months from bankruptcy although that only means they will devalue again and they ( RVers) still believe they are going to make money . A second devalue should nail it.