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SWFloridaGuy

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Everything posted by SWFloridaGuy

  1. 5-17-13 SWFloridaGuy: I am encouraged by the progress we are witnessing on the Erbil front. History dictates that, although we are making progress, this is far from over. The dispute between the GOI & the KRG over the management of the natural resources and the allocation hydrocarbon exports is not a new phenomenon. If Turkey allows the creation of new pipelines this will provide an alternative outlet to international markets for KRG-controlled resources beyond the existing export infrastructure under federal control promote the KRG's hydrocarbon wealth. Negotiations over the oil and gas sector framework law and the revenue sharing law have stalled since 2007 due to the disagreements between the federal government and the KRG. In the absence of legislation clarifying jurisdiction over hydrocarbon exploration and development, the KRG passed its own oil and gas law in August 2007, which it claims is consistent with the federal constitution. The KRG has since proceeded to sign production-sharing contracts with international oil companies. Of course Baghdad disputes the KRG’s right to sign contracts with oil companies without its approval and in particular claims that, by offering oil companies excessively favorable terms, the KRG’s PSCs violate the constitutional requirement of developing oil and gas wealth in a way that yields the greatest benefit to the Iraqi people. The improvement in Erbil-Ankara relations of the past few years reflects changes in Turkish domestic politics and also in the strategic environment. Among other issues this dispute between Baghdad and Erbil is mainly due to dissension over the revenues shares allocated to the KRG. In particular, members of the Iraqi parliament aligned with Maliki have repeatedly tried to reduce from 17 to 12 percent the KRG’s share of the federal budget. The amount of federal payments to the companies under KRG’s contracts pumping oil through the existing pipeline was a source of contentious negotiations pertaining to the 2013 federal budget. More recently, we are receiving reports that they may substitute a supplementary budget to solve this dispute. The month of June (possibly July) appears to be the target date for this agreement between the Federal Government and the territorial Government. My fear rests with their lack of ability to successfully pass the amendments they publicly declare in order to conciliate their opposition and placate the demonstrators with a charade of political synergism. This modification to the budget law will require a vote in the CoM and the referred to the House for the 1st and 2nd reading, at which point they will vote. For the first time in years I'm letting myself believe that this 7 item agreement could finally be a genuine contingency possibly leading to a final resolution. It's a propitious opportunity where each side will benefit along with foreign companies operating in the territory and the Iraqi citizens themselves for change. We've all been here before and heard these promises. However, sooner or later these issues must be resolved and now is as good a time as any. But like most investors, I'm waiting to see actual results before I celebrate. Although, it's hard to argue that the news of late seems to be convalescent compared that of years past. These are just my opinions, which may or may not be correct.
  2. 5-13-13 SWFloridaGuy: I'd like to address a few recent events and both the positive and negative aspects of large currency appreciations; especially, when you consider the benefit of pursuing extensive foreign exchange interventions to smooth the appreciation of the domestic currency. The consequences of strong currencies from both positions of realized large appreciations against those of smoothed appreciations via foreign exchange rate intervention tend to witness the strengthening of domestic currencies and export performances which also improve across economies. The benefits of these intervention measures on growth are significant. The benefit of the fear of appreciation cannot be completely dismissed. Yet, the gain may arguably be too limited, via the trade channel only, to warrant or justify the cost of an asymmetrical exchange rate policy stance, such as in the form of quasi-fiscal costs and other possible distortions to the economy. This may then signify that the fear of appreciation manifested in the form of large reserve purchases fulfilling more than just mercantilism considerations for these economies, but as previously recognized by the extant literature that account for what drives the recent large reserves accumulation in this part of the world, the desire for self-protection in times of crisis and liquidity may justify such behavior. The CBI needs to identify separately the ‘extreme right-tail’ observations from the ordered distribution of the changes in the exchange rate and the ordered distribution of the changes in reserves since the incidence of large appreciations and large reserves purchases are determined and located in the right-tail of the distribution. Although Iraq has the world’s second-largest oil reserves, they require a lot of the infrastructure rebuilding, along with their economic and social institutions if they wish promote an environment attractive to international investors keen to subsidize the additional funds necessary for completing a modernized technological banking system with the skills necessary to ensure a substratum foundation to build upon. Thank goodness for the international support they've been receiving regarding their banking sector in particular because their progress thus far is imperceptibly lacking professionalism trending more toward procrastination and corruption. So, in my opinion, the international intervention implies they have ulterior motives and are there to see a significant return on their investment (as are we). Which is a good sign for us. If those in power see potential in Iraq and are willing to invest in their future, why shouldn't we do the same? Iraq’s huge oil reserves could, in principle, provide the revenues needed to finance the reconstruction, but strong institutions and a favorable business environment are needed to use these resources effectively. The longer-term outlook is strong as domestic and foreign investment in the hydrocarbon sector is bearing fruit. According to the Ministry of Oil, oil production averaged 3.1 million barrels per day of which 2.3 mbpd are exported, and extraction and exports are projected to increase considerably in the years ahead. Nevertheless, Iraq’s economic prospects continue to be subject to significant risks. Deriving mainly from institutional and capacity constraints, oil price volatility, delays in the development of oil infrastructure, and an extremely fragile political and security environment. The IMF is helping the authorities in their efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability as a key condition for economic growth and the generation of sustainable employment opportunities for Iraq’s large labor force. The IMF assists the Iraqi authorities in rebuilding essential economic institutions with its policy advice and technical expertise. Macroeconomic stability is at the heart of the IMF programs and economic policy advice. With the support of four IMF programs, the macroeconomic situation of Iraq has improved substantially since 2003, despite extremely difficult security circumstances and periods of political uncertainty. After experiencing inflation rates of 70 percent in 2007, the Central Bank of Iraq was successful in reducing inflation to the single digits, where it has remained since. The economy is growing with the revival of the oil sector and the improvement in the security situation. And with the support of the international community, debt levels have been brought down to sustainable levels. IMF technical assistance has proven essential in helping the Iraqi authorities develop their institutional capacity and governance infrastructure. Although the IMF's role has changed over the past few years the staff will continue to support Iraq through surveillance and technical assistance. The IMF mission met with the Acting Minister of Finance, the Acting Governor of the Central Bank Turki and other Iraqi officials from the ministries of finance, planning, and oil, and representatives from the Central Bank and the Board of Supreme Audit. The team also met with representatives from the Iraqi banking and business community. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Sdralevich made the following statement: “Following the recent expiration of the Stand-By Arrangement with Iraq approved in 2010, the IMF is committed to continue close collaboration with Iraq to support its development and help the government improve the social conditions and employment opportunities of Iraqi citizens.” If you would like to contact the IMF Public Relationship Dept., concerning any question you may have here is their contact information: IMF EXTERNAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT - E-mail: publicaffairs@imf.org - Fax: 202-623-6220 - Phone: 202-623-7100 Despite a difficult security and political environment, Iraq managed to maintain macroeconomic stability over the past two years. On the back of rising oil production and robust non-oil activity, economic growth has remained strong at about 8 percent in 2012. We expect activity to accelerate further to 9 percent in 2013, as oil production increases from just under 3 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2012 to 3.3 mbpd in 2013. In 2012, inflation was contained at 6 percent, and we project it to decline slightly next year. On account of strong oil proceeds, CBI reserves reached US$70 billion at the end of 2012, while the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) rose to US $18 billion. While we welcome the achievement of a budget surplus of about 4 percent of GDP in 2012, largely due higher-than expected oil revenues, the execution of the 2013 budget should be aligned with available financing and provide for the accumulation of adequate fiscal buffers in the DFI, which suggests to target a budget surplus in 2013. Public financial management should be strengthened, notably by phasing out off-budgetary spending practices and reliance on state-owned bank financing to support public enterprises. Approval of additional spending commitments during the fiscal year should also be avoided. Financial sector policies are improving, but more remains to be done. The CBI’s ongoing efforts to refine monetary policy instruments, strengthen banking supervision, and accelerate the restructuring of the banking system are crucial. In this respect, the recent steps to clean up the balance sheets of Rasheed and Rafidain in preparation for their restructuring and recapitalization are key. The CBI should also take measures to gradually liberalize the provision of foreign exchange through its auctions, with the objective of avoiding in future the turbulence experienced by the market in the past year. For Iraq to succeed they must address serious medium-term challenges in order to be able to create the conditions for high and sustainable growth that is necessary to improve the living standards of its people. The economy continues to suffer from severe structural weaknesses such as a small nonoil sector, high unemployment, public sector dominance, and a weak business environment. In this context, we discussed the role of economic policies in leveraging Iraq’s potential and creating an enabling environment. The budget must be managed carefully to maintain macroeconomic stability, meet Iraq’s large social and investment needs while continuing to accumulate buffers to address oil market volatility, and ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability. At the same time, Iraq needs to strengthen fiscal institutions and public financial management to make sure that the large oil revenues are used effectively and transparently. This may be wishful thinking or require a new government or continued protests that produce progress the current GOI must develop a stronger financial sector development will require moving away from the current model in which weak state-owned banks dominate the financial sector and enjoy favorable treatment vis-a-vis private banks. A solid banking system that can support growth and employment will require the full financial and operational restructuring of state-owned banks and creating a level playing field for both private and public banks. We know oil-growth and foreign investment (possibly their currency) will continue to increase over the coming years. However, private sector growth will need a long-term government strategy centered on improving the business environment and opening up opportunities for the private sector. Unfortunately, increases in oil production have fallen behind ambitious targets because of infrastructure constraints and political disputes. Iraq has five super-giant fields that account for 60 percent of the country’s proven oil reserves. Attributing to the conflict with the Kurds. The IEA estimated that the KRG area contained 4 billion barrels of proven reserves. However, this region is now being actively explored, and the KRG stated that this region could contain 45 billion barrels of unproven oil resources. If true this could bring about some significant economic and political bifurcations. Iraqi crude oil production averaged 3 million barrels per day and passed Iran as OPEC’s second largest crude oil producer at the end of the year. About three-fourths of Iraq’s crude oil production comes from the southern fields. Iraq has begun an ambitious program to develop its oil fields and to increase its oil production. HCL passage would provide a legal framework for investment in the hydrocarbon sector and remains a main policy objective. Despite the absence of the HCL, the Iraqi Ministry of Oil signed long-term contracts between November 2008 and May 2010 with international oil companies. The importance of these phases are as follows: Phase 1 - Major companies further develop giant oil fields. Phase Two - Contracts were signed to develop oil fields that were already explored but not fully developed or producing commercially. If these fields were developed as initially planned, they would increase total Iraqi production capacity to almost 12 million bbl/d, or about 9 million bbl/d above 2012 production levels. The contracts call for Iraq to reach this production target by 2017. However, these contracts are being re-negotiated to more modest levels, and Iraq is revising its production targets to 9.5 million bbl/d by 2017. However, even these revised targets may be overly optimistic, given delays in developing its energy infrastructure. Iraq has since held a third bidding round for natural gas fields, and a fourth round (with few bids submitted) for fields that contain predominantly crude oil. A fifth round has been scheduled in 2013 for the development of the 4-billion-barrel Nasiriya oil field in Thi-Qar province, together with the construction and operation of a new 300,000-bbl/d refinery. Progress has also been slow because of political disputes between the central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Iraq also has disagreements regarding shared oil fields with Kuwait and Iran. Production increases of the scale planned will also require substantial increases in natural gas and/or water injection to maintain oil reservoir pressure and boost oil production. Iraq has associated gas that could be used. According to a report issued by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Iraq was a leading natural gas flaring country. Iraq’s oil and gas industry is the largest industrial customer of electricity in Iraq but significant upgrades to this sector would be needed to supply additional power. Although over 20 gigawatts of new generating capacity are planned by 2015, delays in meeting projected targets would mean insufficient supply to meet the projected demands of the oil sector. However, considering the gravity of the situation there have been several unconfirmed reports of outside aid willing to support the shortage. While Iraq is clearly still on the path to recovery there is much to be encouraged by. Iraq's proven natural gas reserves as of January 1, 2013 were the 12th largest in the world at 112 trillion cubic feet according to the Oil and Gas Journal. After years of power shortages, Iraqi efforts to increase generating capacity are moving forward. Iraq plans to triple generating capacity to 27 gigawatts by the end of 2015. We know oil growth and foreign investment (possibly their currency) will continue to increase over the coming years. However, private sector growth will need a long-term government strategy centered on improving the business environment and opening up opportunities for the private sector. Iraq has the fifth largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, and it passed Iran as the second largest producer of crude oil in OPEC at the end of 2012. Iraq is the 8th largest producer of total petroleum liquids, a statistic that has been increasing and it has the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves. Just a fraction of Iraq’s known fields are in development, and Iraq may be one of the few places left where much of its known hydrocarbon resources has not been fully exploited. Iraq has begun to develop its oil and natural gas reserves after years of sanctions and wars, but it will need to develop its infrastructure in order to reach its production potential. According to estimates by Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, capital expenditures of $30 billion per year in Iraqi energy infrastructure are required to meet Iraq’s production targets. Progress has been hampered by political disputes and the lack of the HCL. The proposed HCL, which would govern contracting and regulation, has been under review in the Council of Ministers but has not received final passage. However, there have been several very encouraging reports that this issue will be resolved shortly. Although I'm a skeptic by nature, I remain very confident that Iraq is headed in the right direction and one day we will profit from this endeavor due to, in part, some of the reasons listed below. 1. Excluding the oil sector the economy is expected to grow by at least 9.4%. 2. The latest report to US Congress forecasts Iraq's GDP growth 3x that of the next strongest MENA economy. 3. In the 70s when Iraq's currency held a much higher value GDP only ranged from $2 billion - $8 billion. 4. Oil is quickly becoming second in Iraq to gold. 5. The CBI has stated they have significant plans for economic integration. They are currently the premier emerging market, not only in the Middle East, but the world. Iraq has positioned itself to make a significant impact on the oil and energy industry. 6. The U.N. is fully supporting Iraq's release from Chapter VII, although I tend to think that will take some time. 7. The HCL/Article 140 are finally being finalized. 8. The CBI/Financing committee is saying they are going to return the value of the IQD to "previous" levels!! Iraq is clearly on a path to recovery, one that although promising does have certain obstacles that they must overcome to regain their well-deserved international standing. We recognize the GOI's ascendancy and corruption have convoluted matters and possibly delayed reforms but nonetheless betting on Iraq is a solid decision in my book. As usual, these are just my opinions, which may or may not be correct. References: • Arab Oil and Gas • Bloomberg News • Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook • International Energy Agency • Iraq Ministry of Oil • Lloyd's List Intelligence - APEX database • Middle East Economic Survey • The Oil and Gas Journal • Reuters • U.S. Energy Information Administration • U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
  3. Bumper you rock brotha, very balanced, level headed and fair moderator. Thanks for keeping it real man.
  4. PM me Thug and you will see the allegations are legitmate. I'm not going to comment further on this matter. Once again I truly would like to express my regret for the spiteful/slander approach he chose to take because I have a lot of respect for his research and have learned a lot from him although his toxic personality prefers to focus on the obvious moronic imebecils while failing to mention the alternative positive aspects that are not only plausible but have more opportunities for prosperity. I concede this may be more realistic and time consuming but when you consider the risk verses reward, it's hard not to take the chance. Especially, when you have a country like Iraq that shows so much promise. So, let's end the personal attacks, the obvioius pumping for personal gain go on about our daily lives and appreciate the social aspects of this community we hope to one day prosper from.
  5. PM me Thug and you will see the allegations are legitmate. I'm not going to comment further on this matter.
  6. All kidding aside I'd like to thank Sam for doing solid research that has forced me to further my own research and do appreciate his perspective and opposing views, which I often agree with myself. However, I strongly disagree with his personal attacks, considering they are incomplete and make false accusations, where charges were dropped decades ago and 15 years pass without so much as a speeding ticket. Unlike you I've never hid my identityl You were right about one thing though Rod, I have 6 years of pro MMA experience. So, the next time you wish to make personal attacks against myself, Adam Montana, Stryker, Scooter EG, Proteus, Patriot, Bondlady, Kaperoni, Yota 691, Enoch 8 or Enorrste shoot me an email at SWFloridaGuy@ymail.com and we can settle this man to man. I know you love to jam with Marcus Curtis so how bout a battle of the bands. I'll sponsor it if you're willing to come to Asheville.
  7. , Honestly, in these economic times, I'd say Sam's prices are rather reasonable.
  8. What can I say Thug... I just really..really.. love Dinar!!!
  9. 5-10-13 SWFloridaGuy: The four leading central bankers from the U.S., U.K., France and Germany navigated in and out of WWI and financed recoveries and German reparations. These central bankers went off and on the gold and new dollar standards by manipulating their exchange and interest rates. We've all heard the rumor that the Bush administration initial plan for paying for the Iraq war was potentially by collecting taxes from the revaluation of the dinar. Now, whether or not this is a remotely plausible scenario, it's hard to discount that, if applied, it would certainly raise revenue and supplement the closing of tax loopholes. Having said that, I'm far from convinced that the statement implying the Iraq war will pay for itself directly relates to the RV of the IQD. Due to my skeptical nature, this theory has me far from convinced although I do recognize the advantages this would incur. The IMF's panel discussion in Tokyo is advising less developed economies (such as Iraq) to let their currencies appreciate, delivering a strongly worded counterargument to their own critiques of the Fed. In some emerging markets, policy makers have chosen to systematically resist currency appreciation as a means of promoting exports and domestic growth. China is a prime example. However, the situation faced by Iraq, considering their goals to go international, de-dollarize, join the WTO with full accession and refrain from intervening in foreign-exchange markets, thereby allowing the currency to rise. The more Iraq moves toward becoming less dependent on exports and more driven by domestic factors the policy makers could use GOI spending and tax policies to support their economy which is in dire need of diversification. This approach would support emerging economies and supplement the recovery of advanced economies. Christine Lagarde made the comment at a conference in late 2012, I believe, where she recognized Iraq's potential to benefit the global economy during these turbulent times. A common misconception is differentiating between real and nominal currency revaluation. The nominal exchange rate can appreciate while relative price levels in an emerging market relative to the US remained unchanged. If you wish to speculate on the long-term real exchange rate your best bet is to compare the rate observed in the currency markets against the purchasing power parity (PPP). This is the implicit exchange rate at which the amount of money needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries is the same. If we wish to determine how quickly an emerging market's (such as Iraq) currency can appreciate we must consider the state of their economic progress and political stability. It is inevitable that emerging market currencies are likely to see a gradual appreciation, possibly algorithmic in nature, considering the global financial crisis. This is all purely conjecture and wishful thinking on my part and I would recommend doing your own research and sharing your own thoughts with us all so we can collectively come to a better understanding and alleviate the misconceptions that plague this community and perpetuate the hype that gives a truly great opportunity such a bad reputation. In closing, I would like to note that the preceding discussion is drawn from world-renowned macroeconomic experts and global financial advisers. The general consensus among these leading experts was published as follows: “We think that both economic theory as well as empirical data confirm our expectations that emerging market currencies will appreciate in the coming years, both in real but also in nominal terms!” References: 1. Penn World Table Version 6.1 2. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania 3. Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, July 2012, Penn World Table Version 7.1, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania 4. Bela Balassa, “The purchasing power parity doctrine: A reappraisal”. Journal of Political Economy 72584-96 5. Kenneth Rogoff, The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle”, J. Economic Literature, 34 6. Paul A. Samuelson, “Theoretical notes on trade problems”, Review of Economics and Statistics 46 (May): 145-54
  10. Thanks everyone. Sorry I haven't posted in a while. Honestly, I've just been so burnt out on the whole thing and neglecting my real life. However, the tide seems to turned in our favor which has gained my interest. Mainly I just come here to read Yota and K98's articles and read everyone else's opinons. I've learned so much just from reading what others more experienced than myself have to say. But thanks anyway.
  11. Hard to address the timing of the RV when there is no guarantee that there will ever be one. Over time will Iraq's currency appreciate.... I can't imagine why it wouldn't but there's many different avenues they could choose to acheive such that level. Personally, I'm hoping for a more gradual approach that promotes long term stability. If you've ever studied large currency appreciations, a sudden drastic increase can have negative long term effects and lead to the collapse of the system. However, if any country has a prayer of an appreciation shock (by that I mean something around 75%+ initially), it is Iraq. Over time they will recover it is inevitable in my opinionn unless they resort to civil war which I doubt the US/Russia/China/UN etc. would allow. So I tend to think we will prosper but it will take time. This opportunity is far from a scam. The real scam is these imbeciles who post for either adulation or personal gain, who claim to be prophets with divine knowledge of prosperity. We shouldn't be to harsh on the newbies though. These are tough economic times and it's understandable that a little hope, no matter how absurd, can overshadow common sense. Bottome line - we're all on the same team and I hope we all prosper whether that be next week or ten years from now. I also hope that those false prophets catch a sever case of sudden leg syndrome so they can truck their way back to Reno.
  12. haha dude you rock. You always find the best clips. We're not worthy, we're not worthy. Screw the dinar, lets hit Sunset Blvd. stop by the Viper Room and jam with Jonny Depp and Motley Crue... Deal?
  13. 5-10-13 SWFloridaGuy: I'd like to address a couple topics relating to both Iraq's current political and economic situation which seem to be generating a sense of imbroglio among researchers. There have been many questions concerning the recent elections and the confusion that the results has incurred. The IHEC press conference announced the results of the local elections was a readout of the names of the winning candidates and their political affiliations which provided the numbers achieved by each candidate, which has now been published. In my opinion the electoral process leaves the door open for abuse and further corruption. The Iraqi electorate uses the personal vote option, where voters can indicate their candidate of choice. When the votes are counted, the pre-set ranking of the candidates done by the party leadership is completely ignored and only specific personal votes aggregated in the election count as the ordering of candidates on a particular list is repeated. Iraqi voters do not actually receive ballot papers that include the names of the candidates. They receive names and numbers and they are required to know their candidates number beforehand and remember to check the party box or render their vote invalid. Imagine how the state of Florida would fair in these conditions. In total there were 8,138 candidates competed for 447 seats in provincial councils. This will be an influential factor down the road because local candidates are affiliated with the national parties and control provincial governments and deepen their power bases. So, it's politics as usual. Most likely there is a direct correlation where alliances are formed and what has transpired of late will directly affect/determine what transpires next year. Unless the citizens, political opposition, foreign intervention, civil war etc., come into play. Having said that, I don't believe for a second that is how this will play out. I'm simply stating where I think his head is at. In time, I believe he will suffer the same fate as all the other dictators of late and this latest chimera of his will lead to his demise. I would venture to say this system is by design and will hinder the political process. Maliki is well aware that this election (although it does not determine the PM) could have far-reaching implications for Iraq’s political direction because it is a test of support for him and his Shiite Islamist party. Maliki has lost some seats in some governorates but is still the biggest seat winner. The Sadrists won back Maysan but still a far cry from the amelioration they are striving for. However, the Shiite parties that ran together in Diyala won 12 seats. Surprisingly, the Mutahiddun list headed by the Nujayfi has emerged as the most formidable force nationwide, with more votes than their competitors. There was a less than mediocre showing by Allawi's Iraqiyya list, which has now only 2 seats south of Baghdad. Also, the Kurds lost a few seats in the two governorates Salahaddin and Diyala. Maliki may have to make an alliance with the ISCI rather than the Sadrists. Maliki has maintained that he will not run for a third term. Unfortunately, I'd put less faith in his ability to be forthright than I would in Gary Busey's ability to cure a leper colony recovering from the bubonic plague. If his party has the intrepidity to support this dictator they could further alienate his Sunni Muslim rivals by moving toward a majority government dominated by fellow Shiites and propel him to a third term as prime minister next year. Unfortunately, I do maintain that until these issues are resolved and we have a somewhat stable GOI where the CBI can operate with proper over site and instruction from the IMF; this will put a temporary hold on any said economic reform projects, especially considering it's possibly the most vital financial development in history. In total there were 8,138 candidates competed for 447 seats in provincial councils. This will be an influential factor down the road because local candidates are affiliated with the national parties and control provincial governments and deepen their power bases. So, it's politics as usual. Most likely there is a direct correlation where alliances are formed and what has transpired of late will directly affect/determine what transpires next year. Unless the citizens, political opposition, foreign intervention, civil war etc., come into play. All of this is purely speculation on my part and while I'm obviously frustrated by the political turmoil and corruption. I'm extremely encouraged by the progress Iraq is making on the economic front along with other improvements concerning long standing issues that have impeded forward progress and international integration. Promoting economic/political reform, finalizing Erbil terms, debts forgiven, sanctions removed, HCL amendments that reportedly will satisfy all parties and end the ongoing dispute and last but not least U.N.'s continued support for Chapter VII release, among other things. If you remember back a couple months ago Regulation 1210 was just amended to favor Iraq and further promote trade. A provision which will free up economic resources. There are many aspects that come into play when you are dealing with a currency reform project of this magnitude. More than we could ever possibly imagine. There are many pieces to this puzzle, which is why it frustrates me to no end to hear "intel providers" try to simplify it with dates, rates, blessings, aviation analogies and insinuating that if you disagree with these absurdities, you are somehow diminishing your religious beliefs.My latitudinal range of topic discussion is my way of demonstrating the complexity of what we are trying to decipher and the humility it should require. I'll be the first to tell you I don't have a clue what the CBI is going to do but I do recognize that there is no other country that presents an opportunity like that of Iraq. Whether it's long term with steady gains (like we have already witnessed), or a historic large currency appreciation shock that will not only shock the world but serve as a global stimulant in during this economic crisis. I believe we have some exciting times ahead and if we remain sagacious, avoiding daily Reno scams, double digit rates, anything that suggests it's tied to the VND and anyone who claims to know the date or rate, I believe we can pass our prudent optimistic attitude onto to the newbies and possibly turn this community around for the better. Yeah... I know, wishful thinking right. I believe EU amended those sanctions to promote economic and financial relations between the European Community and Iraq. These sanctions also included specific restrictions applying to the proceeds from all export sales of petroleum, petroleum products, and natural gas from Iraq. It mentioned that "this will permit the transfer of frozen funds to the successor arrangements to the DFI put in place by the GOI under the conditions set out in UNSC." The Official Journal of the EU transferred frozen funds. Unfreezing these economic resources also helped Iraq obtain funds. With all the news we've seen recently regarding economic sanctions being lifted, plans to alleviate debt, reports that Iraq is the fastest growing economy in the world, funds being unfrozen etc., I'd say they're in good shape moving forward. No one can dispute that Iraq is emerging as an economic leader and which is why for every investor who bails due to the turbulent atmosphere there are hundreds with the foresight to take their place. The IEA recently reported that Iraq will lead OPEC oil production growth over the next two decades. The private sector has made huge contributions toward economic recovery with oil companies driving growth and boosting infrastructure development. When they pass the HCL (hopefully soon), resolving their dispute with the KRG will also encourage foreign investors who will be even more encouraged to fund Iraq's growth. So, it's politics as usual. Most likely there is a direct correlation and what has transpired of late will directly affect/determine what transpires next year. Unless the citizens, political opposition, foreign intervention, civil war etc., come into play. All of this is purely speculation obviously and while I'm obviously frustrated by the political turmoil and corruption, I'm extremely encouraged by the progress Iraq is making on an economic front, reform, Erbil talks, HCL progress among other things. So, for the remaining investors I haven't induced into a deep REM nap session, I will list a few: 1. Iraq’s energy sector holds the key to the country’s future prosperity and can make a major contribution to the stability and security of global energy markets. Iraq is already the world’s third‐largest oil exporter and has the resources and plans to increase rapidly its oil and natural gas production as it recovers from three decades punctuated by conflict and instability. 2. Success in developing the HCL's potential and effective management of the resulting revenues can fuel Iraq’s social and economic development. Failure will hinder Iraq’s recovery and put global energy markets on course for troubled waters. This landmark special report, in the World Energy Outlook series, provides a comprehensive study of the opportunities and risks facing Iraq’s energy sector. 3. Iraq’s ambition to expand its oil and gas output need not be limited by the size of its hydrocarbon resources or by the costs of producing them. Contracts already in place with international companies imply an extraordinary increase in oil production capacity, to a level almost five times higher than today’s 3 million barrels per day (mb/d), over the current decade. How this works out in practice will be determined by the speed at which impediments to investment are removed, clarity on how Iraq plans to derive long‐term value from its hydrocarbon wealth, international market conditions and Iraq’s success in consolidating political stability and developing its human resource base. 4. Reaching output in excess of 9 mb/d by 2020 would equal the highest sustained growth in the history of the global oil industry and this report anticipates movement towards possible trajectories for oil output lower than that implied by current contracts. In our Central Scenario, Iraq’s oil production more than doubles to 6.1 mb/d by 2020 and reaches 8.3 mb/d in 2035. The largest increase in production comes from the concentration of super‐giant fields in the south around Basrah. 5. A resolution of differences over governance of the hydrocarbon sector would open up the possibility for substantial growth also from the north of Iraq, where contracts awarded by the Kurdistan Regional Government, though contested by the federal authorities, have made this one of the most actively explored hydrocarbon regions in the world. Iraq stands to gain almost $5 trillion in revenues from oil export over the period to 2035, an annual average of $200 billion and an opportunity to transform the country’s future prospects. 6. Achieving the required level of oil production and export will require rapid, co‐ordinated progress all along the energy supply chain. Adequate rigs will need to be available at the right time. Early investment in a challenging project to bring up to 8 mb/d of water inland from the Gulf to Iraq’s southern fields will be essential to support oil production and to reduce potential stress on scarce freshwater resources. Sufficient oil storage and transportation capacity will be needed to accommodate the expansion in output and diminish the risk of over‐reliance on the southern sea‐borne route. The infrastructure and investment requirements in our High Case, which anticipates oil. Just to be clear, I am no expert on these matters and have only been researching these matters for just shy of 3 years and am by no means someone who should be considered an authority on these matters. I have contacted quite a few professional macroeconomic experts well versed is these matters and for whatever reason they have been less than willing to comment on this matter despite my offers to compensate them for their research. In a couple months I will be attending a convention as a honorary guest member at the Oxford Club where I have found an individual who is well versed on the subject and claims to insight into this matter. I will record his thoughts on the matter and relay the conversation whether it is a consummate affirmation or a more pessimistic outlook. However, the last message I received was similar to that of Doug Casey, where he implied that countries such as Iraq are the greatest opportunity for growth due to natural resources and lack of debt. I apologize for such a long post and hope my next report will offer something of more significance. Thanks.
  14. Great seeing you Billio0. Miss reading you comments. Don't be a stranga. See if you can track down Carrello also while you're at it. Cheers brotha.
  15. Yeah I hear ya man. Just got done slamming Okie pretty bad on Recaps but doubt it will be approved. It kind of sucks because I'm usually a relatively happy go lucky fellow and it seems the longer I stay wrapped up in Dinar Land the more bitter I get. I really like DV though. I like the mix of intelligent comments, great newshounds, mods and sense of humor. Anyway time for me to take a bottle of ZZZQuil and pass out.....zzzzzz
  16. Hey Ozmosis. I totally get where you're coming from and I'm kinda torn on the issue myself. However, lets face it... the rumors are out there. There's just too many dinar sites and we all know the rumors whether they're posted here or not. Honestly, I think people like Thug who post the rumors are doing the community a great favor because if this site were void of such ridiculous rumors the only comments the average dinarian would be suseptable to are the.... oh we love you Okie, please bare my children and Bulldog thank you for being my investment prophet and leading me to the promised land nonsense. When someone posts a rumor here it receives an reaction deserving of the content. This is the only way people will be able to hear both sides. For example: Some OOM idiot sees a link to DV about the a guru rumor and reads it and possibly for the first time his eyes are opened or at the very least he asks the right questions... which of course will lead to him being banned or castrated depending upon Okie's mood. I feel this way because as ashamed as I am to admit it over 2 years ago before I woke up and got banned from OOM I was actually one of those idiots defending him, waking up at 4 am thinking we RVd and waiting for the Hale Bop comet to accend to the heavens on Okie's spaceship. A couple years ago I used to think Adam Montana and another site were some kind of villians secretly plotting to make us sell dinar, reconstruct the Death Star and end the world as we know it (OOM Brainwash). Anyway, we can't be too harsh on the newbies because we were all their ourselves. This is also a good learning tool because it's one thing to be naive for a few months but when you perpetuate lies for years, there is no other explanation other than... well you already know. Anyway, if any site ever should keep a rumor section, it's Dinar Vets because this is one place members can learn the truth. Lemme put it this way... show me one guru rumor calling the rv that could possiblily motivate anyone to go out and spend their life savings on IQD or for that matter ever give origin posteror their chat room the time of day.
  17. Great post Thug. For real Yota is the Dinar King in my opinion. K98 knights is awesome also. But I swear I don't know how Yota does it, I really don't. We all owe him a lot, he's spoiled us. Thanks for the question and good to see you again. Honestly, I've just finished a glass of wine and getting ready to crash but I have been researching that a lot as I'm sure many here has as well. I'd love to bounce some ideas around with everyone tomorrow though. Nite DV.
  18. Thanks for the ignorant comment aimed toward my personal preference. I enjoy watching Game of Thrones also. Please forgive me for daring to share an opinion. By the way, you may want to explain to Scooter, Adam Montana and Proteus that they, according to you, are pumpers. At least that's what I think you were implying. You're not that well-spoken so a battle of wits would be rather boring. Up for something a little more active? A little MMA sparring perhaps. I way outta practice trust me and I'm sure the world's snickering over me would only carry over. Keep in touch. Would make for a good youtube video while we wait for this elusive RV. Great chatting with you buddy. Thanks everyone. I still start off every morning by coming in hear and reading. I just don't usually have the energy to leave a lot of comments anymore. Feel like I'm just repeating myself. Love reading everyone's comments though. Very informative and also crack me sometimes when you let those guys have it.
  19. I just typed you up like 2 pages worth of stuff and for no reason the page just closed arghhh.. Gonna summarize. Here's the last email from Doug Casey concerning interview. Casey Research Customer Support <subscribers@caseyresearch.com> Jan 30 to me ## Please reply above this line. Changes below will be lost. ## Dear Casey Research subscriber, Thank you for contacting us here at Casey Research. I just wanted to let you know, your email has been received and is being reviewed by our support staff. If you need to update or add to your request, please reply to this email or simply give us a call. Our subscribers are very important to us. We strive to answer all support requests within 3 business days. If your email was received on or just before a holiday or weekend, please understand that response time may be a bit longer. Thank You, Casey Research Customer Support Toll Free US and Canada 888-512-2739 For International Callers 602-445-2736 Monday-Friday 7:00am-5:00pm (Arizona Time zone) Ok so I did a follow up call and they put me in touch with a couple economists that I'm trying to set up an interview with before I leave for the Oxford Club meeting in a couple months. I want to get all this stuff on a recorder at least of maybe video. I'm a bit concerned that they may give us news we don't wanna hear but I'll offer up whatever they say and we can come to our own conclusions. I'm searching for currency experts who are well versed in macroeconomics, RDs, RVs, PEPs, Floats, Lops etc. Not looking for some idiot who knows nothing about Iraq and says the IQD is a scam like that retarded video the other day. Also, not looking for some pumper idiot who's gonna tell me what I want to hear. I'm screaning them pretty good and you'll be able to check his or her credentials. Anyway, prolly only a couple months away at the most unless these other two come through but they are gonna charge a lot for their time. Oxford Club is free once you're a member. Keep ya posted. Hopefully, it won't be bad news but expert or not, even an educated opinion is still just an opinion.
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