America. The land of the free and opportunity, the great work ethic, the great super power and (sadly) the land of mass hyperbole, “Money for nothing and your chicks for free...”
Having set the scene, let’s get down to business.
“To RD or not to RV”, that is the question. Er, well actually, we’ll do both...
It is quite simple :-
1. RD. Print your new Dinar notes, with a new logo, i.e. lose the last 3 zeros. The 25,000 text now reads 25. Grant a period of grace for the world to swap their old notes for the new ones and,
2. “Educate” the people about the release of the new notes/coins (but, not just the Iraqi’s) and no one has lost out, or for that matter gained.
3. The dollar exchange rate shifts to 0.85 per dinar.
4. Then, at the same time, RV, having agreed it with the powers that be – IMF, China, US, UN...but not necessarily in that order.
5. The RV moves the rate from 0.85 to say, the oft quoted rate of $1.17 and there we have it. An RD and an RV, all at the same time. Go RV Go!!!!
6. All the Dinar investors see the Guru forecasts come true at $1.17 and they make a neat 38% (ish) on their investment. Assuming, someone will give them dollars/sterling/euro for their Dinar. But then who wants to buy Dinar? Are you thinking of buying something from Iraq?
7. If we go with the latest Guru guff, then the rate will be $12+. After the RD that give us a very neat return at 1,339%. But, sadly, not their outlandish idea of 1,339,000%.
And so the “URGUS” are proved right (sorry, that was a typo) the “GURUS” are proved right. But, then again, they can’t spell. That’s OK. They are in the know, close to the action and we poor plebs can soak it all up. We can trust them. I’m always impressed by communications which include bad spelling, poor grammar and the misuse of case. They are punting out the news so quickly it would be unreasonable not to forgive them the odd mishtake!
I love their notions; The train is pulling in, the time is nigh, the rotund lady is gargling away, loosening up the old tonsils, mic’d up and ready to sing, get ready to cash in, BUT...
The dinar value, free floating, post; Chapter 7, Article 8, ad infinitum, is a function of the world’s view on the worth of the Iraqi economy. The place is literally shot to pieces. It has massive internal factions and a less than collaborative government. It is surrounded by the neighbours from hell, who variously threaten invasion or a beating seven colours of Shiite out of each other. Iraq has a gargantuan rebuilding task and that has to be paid for. I’ve got the solution (if you’ll pardon the pun)...OIL.
So, cutting a long story short, we will see a very small immediate return on the Dinar investment. Over a period of (probably very volatile) years their economy will progress. Slowly.
The idea that Iraq’s economy is transformed overnight, by a forecast minimum of 1,000 times (per the Gurus) is simply preposterous. And, before you ask, yes I do have my lottery tickets (Dinars) and like that event this looks like a load of random balls.
Finally, for the Americans, as the amazing Arthur Fonzarelli famously said, “Sit on it!” Maybe we need the “Fonzie Touch”?