engineer1138

What makes them unreasonable? Its the hard economics, the math, what can be supported with reserves, foreign trade, the impact on markets, etc? right? We don't have to actually run all the numbers to see that a $1000 dollar to 1 dinar RV can not occur, but that IS the sort of analysis we are doing. Where I think we differ is that if you DO run the numbers they show the $1 RV simply can not occur, and syaing "well we don't know for sure") doesn't counter that. I think very few have done so. Invariably I read comments by those thinking a big (0.10 - 1.0) RV is possible tend to only analyze a subset of factors and usually include some extreme assumptions (e.g. the CBI is faking all their books in a dis-information campaign, the UST has trillions of dinar, ....).

I think we do know, just not "exactly". Can we say with very high certainty that the Dinar will not revalue to $1000 dollars per dinar tomorrow? Why? The same economic arguments that say that will not happen, says an RV to anything greater than around a penny can not happen and even that would take many extreme circumstances to occur.So the "no one knows just what will happen" line is true, but it does not imply that we know nothing of what will happen, or that all outcomes are equally likely.

There has been no RV, no one has cashed out, and you have watched way to many action movies. Get real.

So you're thinking the real budget for 2012 will 117 Trillion dollars worth? Doesn't seem likely to me.

Good grief, $1500/million? you'd be smarter to go to the buy/sell forum and get a million from Legalos for $1050 . Early on I tried to sell some on e-bay and both times the scum never paid, apparently using the time for a no cost lay away (i.e. if it RV'd while I was waiting he would claim the deal had to go through I'm guessing). One of them turned out to have been using a stolen account no less. So I'd say sellers beware, and buyers too! I've bought and sold computers and such on e-bay with out the slightest hitch, but this might be a bit different.

Wow, 15 pages in 24 hrs all on this piece of garbage? Come on folks, NO claim like this WILL EVER be correct. Even if you think there will be a big RV, do you really think the CBI is going to tell so many people that it filters down to folks who post on web sets before it shows up on the CBI's page? Get real!! All such posts are by definition false. Whether Randalln is making it up, or his friend is making it up, or whoever told his friend is .... that I don't know. But, what we do know is that it IS made up. Unless you are Dr Shabibi, or work directly for him, the FIRST place ANYONE else will find out about an RV of ANY size, is at cbi.iq .

Just to be clear I'd guess the biggest source is the GOI spending money, they buy in dinars. It isn't a tax base that is funding that but oil revenue. That is in dollars, which the GOI exchanges for dinars. So dollar reserves go up, and dinars in circulation (once its spent) go up. The source pulling them in is the auctions. So it isn't "going right back out" as in the CBI dispensing that batch of dinars, but just overall GOI spending throughout the year. And since the spending is the fixed part and the auction is the variable part they use for control, the auction is really the pull back in that they sync up to how much has gone out and what inflation is and economic growth etc.

Its been a while since I've looked, and recall having similar problems of knowing just what the include under what term. I would call foreign reserves an asset and their supply of dinars a liability against that asset. I'll be happy to review them again, can you post the links you are using so we're sure to be looking at the same things?

So are you saying that they could not be keeping the dinar stabilized with sales of a couple or few hundred billion dinars a once or twice a week (something like that isn't it?) if there are in fact 27T dinars in circulation? i.e. that 0.25T is too small a portion, 1% of 27T? I'd say just the opposite its plenty big given the very limited dinar market. The GOI gets dollars for oil, but they want to spend dinars in Iraq. So they exchange dollars for dinars with the CBI increasing its reserves. But those dinars increase the money supply so the CBI also has to be buying them back, mitigated by growth in the economy, to keep inflation under control and the value of the dinar stable. Or at least that is how I think it works.Also GotSix we have talked about the audited financials before. The fact that they are qualified does not imply they are bogus. We need the details of just what aspects of the report were the problem. It might be serious, it might not be. In any case they did not give an "adverse" report which would imply a general lack of adherence to accounting standards.

Yes I do, and they have been going on for a long time, but the money supply is still growing. So that says the are putting it back out faster than it is coming in, doesn't it? Are you saying you believe the auction data but not the inflation/money supply data all from the same CBI?

First, apologies if this ends up coming out twice as I thought I just posted this but then couldn't find it so here goes again...This article says that the CBI bought 250B dinars in one day to stabilize the exchange rate back to 1170 since value was falling (i.e. getting worse like maybe 1200 dinars per dollar). So to pull in 25T they would have to suspend all activities that are putting dinar back into circulation (and there must be a lot of that to show a 15% money supply growth) and do this for 100 days. I don't think any of that has happened. Further if it was happening wouldn't they be having the opposite problem, the dinar would be going up in value, not down?

Exactly what I was going to ask. The latest figures from the CBI show the money supply growing (very roughly 10% GDP growth + 5% inflation makes for 15% growth in the money supply year over year as of the last report), not shrinking, let alone shrinking dramatically.

It does not seem like "bad mouthing" the investment to me. I am not the one doing the name calling. But I post here just to advise that the payment for not paying quarterly taxes if they are due (and there are a number of rules about it) is 8% of what is due, on a weighted average across the 4 payments. If all the tax was due for the first payment, that would make it 8% which could be a pretty big hit. The form is trivial, just here is the amount I'm paying and here is my check. So just something to consider.

Thanks for the feedback. (again I wasn't trying to upset anyone). The first poster says that an RV will occur (not maybe) and that the government is pissed about the "big loss" from not having the tax revenue associated with the RV (i.e. that the feds are also sure about this upcoming RV). So US tax revenues are in the neighborhood of $2T, so if they are pissed at missing out on a big chunk of that that is a pretty sizable RV (i.e. not .00086 to .001 for example), right? So I don't think I misconstrued anything relative to the magnitude of the RV the poster has in mind.Secondly for such an RV to occur a few miracles have to happen. Maybe they will and we will be rich and that would be glorious. But government bean counters do not project based on miracles. If you just look at the financials Iraq is going to RD 1000:1, and maybe do a small RV to put the new (RD'd) dinar at 1:1 or maybe a little higher to the dollar. That is not going to generate significant tax revenues. If that is their projection I doubt Iraq's currency plans figure in at all into the governments tax revenue planning. So they would not be pissed by missing something they are not expecting. Or at least that was how I thought about it. I don't see that as pessimistic, but realistic. I didn't mean to get folks upset about it, but I see numerous instances of people making assertions based on the certainty of an RV (i.e. the poster did not say "if the feds were planning on this then I suppose they would be POed by now for it not happening). And I ended with a note that since any sizable RV will end up in many folks paying quarterly taxes, there still is an RV-tax opportunity in 2012 (which I stated as a fantasy as that is what I think it is, fantasy is fun, but don't do your financial planning that way). I'll try to be kinder in the future. Thanks again.

That post has been neg'd. So folks just neg any post of a a poster they don't like? Well I am not here to win friends or make enemies but hopefully to get along with everyone while tracking what's going on wrt the dinar and express my views about it when i think that might be helpful or just feel like it. Isn't that the same for everyone? If by "poor attitude" you mean that I do not expect a 100,000% rise in the exchange rate, I'd say that is not about attitude but analysis. If that is not what you mean, can you tell me what you do mean? Where have I been impolite or discourteous to anyone? Maybe I have been and just don't notice it, but I don't think so.

If you say so. As I said its Adam's site, if Adam wants to let Sonny1 post as he does, that's his choice.and why do I get negged for Thanking Bumper for the information he offered?

ACK. Thanks for letting me know.

I believe you. But, if he wishes to hide that fact with a different profile, I can hardly be faulted for not knowing it till now. So for future reference, the board policy as expressed by Sonny1's post is that disrespectful behavior like name calling is not tolerated, except by mods?

I think your opinion has already been expressed quite clearly, and you are not a mod now.

OPEC members already routinely go over their quota, so much so that now OPEC isn't even setting individual quotas but just one for total production. Is Iraq going to get MORE then the market rate by not being an OPEC member? Who would pay it? So I don't see your logic here. Also Iraq was one of the 5 founding member states of OPEC in 1960.

I believe there is a significant chance it will go at least somewhat higher than it is and since there is no rush what is the problem? I have not called anyone names or said derogatory things about others or made false offers. I think I'll ask the mods for an opinion of forum etiquette here.

You're welcome to your opinion. I am not responsible for your bizarre interpretations. Obviously my statement is asserting that the government and I have the same view of this situation, not that I had anything to do with the governments assessment. We all have access to the same info, so know more? I'd say no. Understand more? More then some, less than others. I would say here are quite a lot of folks here who got into this just the way Legalos describes his experience (There was a thread called "Interview with Legalos from Sam I Am" but it seems to be in progress of being moved, anyway you guys know who Legalos is right?), and that includes me.

Please yourself. You get ONE instance of documentation with each purchase, so since I did not purchase a lot of 8M I do not have a specific set that goes with just 8M. Look you had no intention of doing this deal in the first place, so I fail to see what you are so bothered about. I am here, like you I would guess, to keep up with whats happening with the dinar. So why don't you just check the CBI site and clam up otherwise? Why do my posts cause you such problems? The OP stated that the government would be pissed that the RV didn't happen in 2011 so they would get taxes in 2012. But I am quite confident the government has the same view that I do and does not expect a large RV and hence are not upset that it did not occur. So its ok honeygoat to post that the feds are pissed by no RV yet but not for me to post my disagreement??? Its Adam's web site, when Adam tells me that all posts must be supportive of a large RV happening, I'll stop posting or reading as the site will be useless then.

Nope, but I get the just of it from the wikipedia. Its BS . Our view certainly alters our perception of reality, but not reality itself. So if you go to a job interview with the attitude that you won't get the job and this is a waste of time, likely that is what it will turn out to be. But if you go with the attitude that you are perfect for this job and are going to get it, that will let you see opportunities to accomplish that. But it still assures nothing and will not make up for a gross lack of qualifications for example. You have to acknowledge the existence of opportunities in order to see them, but no amount of such will allow you to swim to the moon for example. In al the investments I have bought and sold I can't recall ever calling anyone "sweetheart". Its stuff like this that tells me you clearly are not serious and this is not a good deal to try to pull off. Not to mention of course that your email is private so I can't contact you that way. Mine is (according to my view of my profile anyway) public.

Its an indication of priority, the deal or the post about a deal. Sure I'll sell you 8M (uncirculated 25k) for $9,600+shipping (actually units of 100 bills are convent so if you only want 7,500 that's ok too). I have all the documentation from Dinar Banker, of which you may have copies but not the originals as it covers more. Again if you really want to do a deal, than contact me privately. Neutral as to what I think will happen, of course not. Neutral in how I read the info is what I said I try to do, i.e. to determine what it says, not to try and interpret it in some specific way. FOR the last time, I do not have other investments that are going to double, 15%-20% per year is my goal. Doubling in 2 years would be an outstanding return. Maybe you don't invest much. As I said to Carlleo, contact me privately if you really want to do a deal.