FrankieV

Big surprise, name calling, gibberish, and poor math skills from Surfing. Business as usual for you, eh? I didn't say the demand is 20%, I'm using his 80% figures. Learn to read. Yes, it does. He is saying the current demand of 20 billion USD worth somehow magically transforms into 5 trillion USD worth of demand. And that's exactly what I showed, and it's ridiculous. I'm sorry that you're not capable of understanding my point, but that is your problem, not mine. Lol, not a math expert, are you? If I have 1 liter of orange juice mix, and (all at the same time) add 10% vodka, 5% grenadine, and 50% water, you ADD the percentages together (to get 65%) and then MULTIPLY it by the original volume in order to get the NEW volume of 1.65 liters. If you MULTIPLY 1 liter by 10%, and then 5%, and then 50%, you get 1.73 liters, WHICH IS WRONG. This is exactly what he is doing, multiplying things in succession when he should be adding the percentages AND THEN multiplying (or multiplying each percentage by the ORIGINAL value and then ADDING them together). You really shouldn't be trying to give anyone math lessons, you prove over and over again that you don't understand even very basic math. Instead of name calling and proving you don't understand math, how about you explain why I'm wrong, and that Iraq needs 30 trillion USD worth of currency when Saudi only has 111 billion? Go ahead. I'm waiting.

I'm sorry, but Enoch8 doesn't know what he's talking about. Some things he multiplies when he should be adding instead, and he makes logical leaps that just make no sense whatsoever. He says 80% isn't even owned by Iraqis. If this is true, it means there's currently "demand" out there for about 20 billion USD worth of IQD. He then later, as he's multiplying everything together, states that the 80% "demand" that currently equals 20 billion USD will all of a sudden equate to FIVE TRILLION USD in demand at a rate of 1:1. He says this right here: "That creates a demand of 1.26 Trillion IQD valued at just $1.00 US. We have already established, that there is already a demand in the world markets of 5 times that, (even before it is even an international reserve currency.) That tells us, that there would be a need to have about 6.3 Trillion IQD, currently, if the Value was only $1.00 US." That makes NO SENSE whatsoever. There isn't a demand for 5 trillion USD worth of IQD, there's a demand for 20 billion worth of IQD. This is one of the MANY areas that he should be adding instead of multiplying. The demand for a currency wouldn't increase by a thousand times just because the currencies value increase by a thousand times. In fact it would be the exact opposite, the demand would DECREASE as the price went up. Simple economics. In reality, there wouldn't be any demand at all, because the central banks around the world would already have WAY more IQD (23 trillion USD worth, by his figures) than they could ever want, or use. 23 trillion USD means Iraqs entire known oil reserves are now completely owned by foreigners. All of it. Every drop. And then some. That creates a big problem, because not only do the Iraqis (obviously) use their own oil for their own purposes, they need the USD that they sell it for to run their government. 95% of the governments funding comes from USD that they get by selling oil, that they would no longer receive in Enochs gedankenexperiment. The CBs of other countries would have NO demand for more IQD, and they'd be trying to unload the IQD they had as quickly as they could so as not to get stuck with it, which would cause the value of the IQD to plummet. You can quite easily tell whether or not his numbers are reasonable, by looking at his conclusion and seeing if IT is reasonable. His conclusion is that Iraq HAS to have 30 trillion dinar worth 1 dollar each. Does that make sense? Let's take a look: Saudi Arabia has more oil than Iraq, and about the same population. They also are a lot more stable, and have a GDP that is about 3x what Iraqs is. Given that, if Iraq just has to have 30 trillion USD worth of IQD in circulation, Saudi would obviously have to have more, since their GDP and oil reserves are so much higher. All of this is easily verifiable in 30 seconds by googling. Now, how much currency does Saudi have in circulation? http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1216063238.php They have an M1 of 111 billion USD worth of currency. 111 billion. Yet for some reason, Iraq has to have 30 trillion. About 300 times higher. His reasoning and his math just make no sense at all. Take the 30 trillion IQD that are out there (according to enoch himself). Now figure that since Iraqs GDP is 1/3 Saudis, their currency value should also be about 1/3 Saudis (in reality it should probably be less, due to stability issues, etc). That would mean 1/3 of 111 billion, or about 37 billion USD worth. Divide that by the 30 trillion dinar, and you get a value of about 0.0012. About 50% higher than what it is right now. Not the 116,000% increase that Enoch is saying has to happen. Even if you think that Iraq should have just as much USD worth of currency out there as Saudi (despite the fact that they have less oil and a far lower GDP), that means 111 billion divided by 30 trillion IQD in circulation = exchange rate of 0.0037. About 430% higher than it is now, not 116,000% Sorry Enoch, your math doesn't make any sense. A lot of nonsense, to be honest.

So an increase from 85 to 100 (18%) is "exponentially?" Do you know what exponentially means?

The problem is the notion that they have "spent such great effort getting all the larger notes in country back to the banks." Regardless of whether or not they've tried to get all the big notes back in, there is still roughly 30 trillion in circulation. That is direct from the CBI and can be verified on their website. 2/3rds of the notes in existence are 25,000 notes, that is a fact that has been in numerous articles. Even if they pulled ALL the in country currency out of circulation and ran for months on nothing but the USD, there is STILL too much currency outside the country for them to RV to even 10 cents. Sonny1 says 8-12 trillion outside the country. They RV 1 to 1 and they have 8-12 trillion in liability to foreign currency speculators. This results in them giving half their oil supply away to foreigners and absolutely screws their own population. Why would they do that? The future of the currency in Iraq can be summed up by two very simple, common sense things. 1. They're not going to do anything that's impossible. They can't. A country with a GDP of 100 billion can't have trillions of USD worth of currency. This is very easily verifiable by looking at the GDPs and currency of neighboring countries. Literally 5 minutes worth of research will give you a very clear idea of what a reasonable GDP to M2 ratio is. 2. They're not going to do anything that screws almost all of their own people and rewards foreign currency speculators. First of all, why would they, and second of all, if there was even a hint that something like that might happen, the country would immediately implode and your dinar would become completely worthless. Just think about the actual situation in Iraq, and try to come up with reasons why their currency would increase in value by 1000x (100,000%) overnight. Here are the reasons I've seen the gurus and pumpers give: 1. The IQD is practically worthless, it doesn't make sense for their currency to be worth so little when they have so much oil. That idea completely ignores the facts. The IQD is worth so little because there are trillions and trillions in circulation, mostly thanks to Saddam. To get the value of the currency up, they need to reduce that 30 trillion down into the billions, and it isn't possible to do that by buying them up at 1170 to 1 when there are trillions held outside the country. They can't do it before an RV, because the speculators aren't selling (they're still buying, as evidenced by the fact that the dinar dealers are in business), and they can't RV until they DO do it. They can't do it after an RV because they don't have the foreign currency reserves, and it would be insane for them to give away all their oil in order to make currency speculators in North Dakota into millionaires. 2. Kuwait did it, so Iraq can too. Literally 5 minutes of research will tell you this isn't true. The situations were completely different. Kuwait never printed trillions of dinar. 3. The "powers that be" want it to happen, so it will happen. This is complete BS. In order for a currency to have a stated value, everyone has to agree on that value. Iraq can say their currency is worth 3 dollars, no one is going to believe it (for the 100% factual reasons stated above), and you won't be able to exchange your dinar for anything. Saddam was still trying to say the dinar was worth 3 bucks when it was actually being exchanged for 1/3000th of a dollar. And if the Rothschilds (or the illuminati, or the white hats, or the red dragons, or the space aliens, or whoever) can do whatever they want with any currency on the planet, why bother messing with the dinar? Why didn't they do it with Turkey? And no, Turkey is not poor and worthless. Their economy, GDP, per capita income, and everything else crushes Iraqs, and has the added benefit that it's not entirely based on oil, which is a finite resource. If Iraq is LUCKY and everything over there settles down, MAYBE in 5 or 10 years they'll have a GDP that is half what Turkeys is right now. Even if you're convinced oil changes everything, and the Rothschilds can do whatever they want and everyone on the planet will agree with them, Iraq still doesn't make any sense. Why not do it with Venezuela? Their currency is worth even less than Iraqs, and they have even more oil. The "powers that be" argument makes no sense and only conspiracy theorists buy into it. If they could do it, it would have happened before, and it hasn't, because it can't. 4. The bible says so. Religion is great, Christianity is great, the bible is great, but I would not recommend taking investment advice from a 1500 year old book. I think that's really all that needs to be said about that. 5. The Iraqis need money, they need money to rebuild, they need money to jump start their economy, etc, etc. First of all, this applies to all the countries on the planet, and since when has a need for something ever dictated reality? Every country has poor and homeless and problems, so every country needs more money. That doesn't mean you can wave a magic wand and make it so. Second, the things that they need have to come from OTHER countries. They don't have the metal resources in production or the manufacturing capabilities to make practically ANY of the stuff they need to rebuild the country. That means they need USD and Euros and Yen, not an overvalued and hyperinflated dinar. If an RV to 1 to 1 were to happen, and the foreign treasuries were to end up holding 8-12 trillion USD worth of dinar (as sonny1 says they will), why on earth would they want MORE of it? They wouldn't. They'd want USD and Euro and Yen, and Iraq doesn't have anywhere near enough of it. If the UST is holding 5 trillion USD worth of dinar, they already own 1/4th of Iraqs total known oil reserves, that will take decades and decades to get paid back for. It would be absolutely RIDICULOUS to think they'd accept more of it. They'd be literally throwing money away. A straight RV to even 10 cents per Dinar can not and will not happen. There's zero legitimate reasons to think it will and a million legitimate reasons to think it won't.

Dropping three zeros from the nominal (face) value = lop. Sorry. If they said drop three zeros from the exchange rate, that might be an RV. 1000 IQD (pre RD) = 1 dinar (post RD) exactly describes a lop.

It's far worse than that. An RV of 1 to 1 is a 116,279% increase. Certainly a possible outcome, so it's infinitely more likely than a 1 to 1 RV. But I think an RD (lop) is also possible. Yes, they'll have to pay out some USD, but nothing more than what they already took in in USD for the dinar in the first place. Plus it's certain that SOME of the dinar will never come home to Iraq. How much that will be, who knows. Some will have gotten lost. Some people that don't have that much dinar will probably just write it all off after they see the spread that dealers are charging. Some will hold onto it thinking that there's still some way to get rich off it (and I'm sure some gurus will be happy to tell them it's still a possibility). I doubt Iraq will end up paying that much to get them back. I'd say more like 1000-1500, if not just $854. At a thousand, Iraq got a heck of a deal. A practically interest free loan for between 1 and 7 or so years, plus pure profit on the dinar that never comes back. And you know they can take the hit on paying out the USD for that amount, because they took in about that amount in USD (or euros, or GBP) when they sold the dinar. Better to take a thousand dollar hit now than to let it hang out there and potentially have to pay 3000 or more after future RVs or if the dinar climbs in value if they let it float.

Lol, good one. Articles saying 30 trillion becomes 30 billion? Fact. CBI referencing Turkey? Fact. Delete three zeros = RD (lop)? Fact. No country on the planet using oil in the ground to back their currency? Fact. What you're tired of arguing with is facts. A lot of people around here don't like facts. They like speculation and rumor and lies, because it tells them what they want to hear.

There's no reason to think this is anything other than Okie either seeing a news article about someone getting murdered and latching onto it to try and give himself credibility, or just making it up completely.

The proof is when they say 30 trillion dinar becomes 30 billion dinar, which you can verify in the articles on the first page of this forum right now. "Delete three zeros" is just simpler for people to understand than "move the decimal point three places." What you're talking about makes no sense and will never happen. 25,000 becomes 25. 1,000 becomes 1. 500 becomes .5, etc. The CBI is talking about doing what Turkey did. They have said so. Numerous times. The notion that they would change some of the notes but not all of them is completely ridiculous and is nonsense perpetrated by gurus and pumpers in order to charge people more for lower denoms. Check and see what 250s are going for relative to what 25,000 notes are going for, and you'll see that it worked. You're the one making the claim, with zero evidence to support it, you're the one that needs to do the research. If currencies can be backed with oil that is still in the ground, why is there no country on the planet that is currently doing it? Look at the M2s of places like Saudi and Venezuela and Kuwait and you will see this is fact. No one would accept a valuation like that, Iraq would have a currency that no one on the planet would accept or want to hold, it would only be good inside the country.

50 billion USD. How does the CBI maintain the exchange rate? By trading dinar for USD. You know this, right? It's common knowledge, that's the whole point of the auctions and the pegged rate. How does dinar maintain the exchange rate? They're not trading dinar for dinar, and you can't back dinar with more dinar. This is common sense. If we could back the USD with more USD why don't we just print 500 trillion USD and leave half of it in the reserve? Your argument makes no sense. They're talking about USD, and giving its value also in dinar, like they do in most articles. Intelligence won't lead you to Iraq RVing to a dollar, because it makes no sense. It's already been explained to you multiple times by multiple people. 1. That money is FOREIGN RESERVE. It makes no sense for it to be dinar. 2. They would lop the dinar that they have because it's value neutral, and gets rid of the remnants of their horrible inflation. Speculators look at a lop as a horrible thing because it means they're not going to make a million bucks off 1200 dollars worth of dinar. To the CBI it is not a horrible things, it's a good thing, because they KNOW that increasing their exchange rate by 100,000 percent is ridiculous and never could have happened. To you the lop is the end of a dream, to Iraq a lop is the end of a nightmare. The nightmare being years of Saddam screwing them over and printing trillions of dinar for himself and his wars. 3. An RV to .001 is possible, an RV to .86 is not.

It isn't true, it's something made up by the gurus. Even if it were true, the market would never accept it. This is also guru misinformation. A 50 dinar note becomes .050 dinar, i.e. a nickel. This can be easily verified by looking up other RDs that have happened.

Little problem with your math, as well. First of all, today they're pumping less than 3 million per day, not 13, and they're exporting even less, obviously, because they use some of it. That can be verified here: http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-to-Boost-Oil-Output-to-3-Million-Barrels-a-Day-by-Year-End.html What also can be verified there, is that they're HOPING to hit 12 million by 2016, which makes your 112 million by 2020 seem fairly ridiculous. Even 12 seems like a stretch given how much of a mess the country is, and because they have less oil than Saudi, and Saudi doesn't pump that much. Your 112 million per day is also ridiculous because it means they'd pump through their known reserves in about three years. So no, none of what you said is going to happen. So, what? You add all that up and get, what, about a trillion dollars? A trillion dollars over the next 10 years? A trillion dollars is less than what the US economy does in GDP in A MONTH. And you're saying Iraqs money supply should be worth trillions more than ours? You're gonna have to find some different numbers, cause the ones you've got aren't working.

Regarding restructuring, if you just deleted 3 zeros and didn't make any other changes you'd end up with your biggest note being a 25 dinar worth 21 bucks. They'd be better off adding some more notes, at least a 100, worth 84 or so, and maybe even a 200 or 500, since Iraq is so behind the times with regard to electronic banking. I think that's a lot of what the restructuring means, and you can see that from the articles. I also think they will RV to 1 USD at the same time or shortly after they delete the three zeros. Take their current exchange rate (.00086) and divide it by their former (50 billion USD) reserves. You get 1.7x10^-14 Now take .001 (what it would take to be 1 to 1 after losing the three zeros) and divide it by their new and improved 58 billion USD reserves. You also get 1.7x10^-14. If 50 billion in reserves is backing .00086 exchange, 58 billion is precisely what you would need to maintain the same ratio at a .001 exchange rate.

It isn't. At all. Not really. Their GDP is almost entirely based on oil. All of a sudden having their currency suddenly worth way more than it should be doesn't make the oil shoot out of the ground any faster. You would THINK that it would mean they could pay to get more wells drilled and more exploration done and whatnot but those people don't want paid in dinar, they want paid in USD and Euros, and Iraq doesn't have enough of them. In fact, in reality, it would likely make their GDP go DOWN, because instead of getting paid in USD for their oil, they'd be getting paid in the hyperinflated dinar. More and more of their hyperinflated dinar coming back into the country would cause more inflation, causing it to lose value, and more and more oil leaving the country, would also cause it to lose value (if they were capable of monetizing their oil supply, which they're not). No country on the planet uses resources that will be in the ground for decades to back their currency today. If they did Venezuala would own 1/2 the planet. Which exponent would that be? One?

I think I figured it out. The obvious BS like "It's going to be 3.41 and happen tomorrow" doesn't exist in order to actually get people to believe it, it only exists so that the very slightly more believable BS, like "it's going to be .86 sometime in the next month" seems reasonable, when it isn't.

Debunked? Like your original post in this thread, where Iraq has to find 1 trillion barrels of oil to pay off the dinar held by foreigners? JMW ripped sonny1 apart in the debate, anyone that doesn't have a severe case of dinar fever can see that. The US monetary policy doesn't work, so you're jumping on board an Iraq policy that has even MORE money and far LESS backing it? Really? No, they leave out guru nonsense that has been repeated so many times that people like you THINK they are facts. Shabibi has been talking about deleting three zeros, which = RD (ie lop), for years. If he has his way and doesn't get shot down by the GOI, you'll understand this soon enough. I hope you're still around.

How much currency was in circulation in 1942? How much in 1980s? How much was there in 1995 when it took 3000 dinar to equal one USD? Now how much is there now? Just because you ignore the facts doesn't mean they don't exist, and it doesn't mean that Iraqs currency can defy simple economics. If there's more of something, it's worth less. It doesn't matter if it's currency, or stock shares, or Michael Jordan rookie cards. Did you forget that when you bumped your head, or did you never know it to begin with?

Really? Here's some quotes from Sonny, from other recent threads: No, unfortunately, you haven't. They're not telling the world, they're telling their citizens. That's why the original articles are in arabic, not english.

Yes, that's correct. No, you can't. Unless the car is only worth what a pineapple is (which in your example is 21 USD). It will buy the pineapple. If inflation sets in, the currency value goes down, not up. There's nothing unusual about having the two currencies coexist, it happens in redenominations all the time.

Look up every country in the ME. Look up how much currency they have in circulation, and look up how much that currency is worth. Look at how much oil they have. Look at what their GDP is. Then come back here and explain to everyone how Iraq can possibly have 8-12 trillion USD worth of currency that you say is outside the country, let alone 30 trillion total.

Little problem with your math. If theres 8-12 trillion dinar outside Iraq, as your sonny1 says, it will take about 75 years to pump enough oil to pay it off. Not 2 or 3. Even if they quadruple their output it will take 20 years. Iraq cannot even dream of having a money supply worth trillions of USD for even a second, let alone 20 years. Sorry, try again.

Look up every country in the ME. Look up how much currency they have in circulation, and look up how much that currency is worth. Then come back here and explain to everyone how Iraq can possibly have 8-12 trillion USD worth of currency that you say is outside the country, let alone 30 trillion total. I know exactly who sonny is. He's a guy that everyone loves because he tells them what they want to hear, instead of the truth. Remember that, when what he says never comes to pass.

Yep, that's how it works. An old 25,000 note (IQD) has the same value as a new 25 note (NID, or whatever currency code they decide on). That's exactly how it worked in Turkey and all the other countries that have done it.

Why would the UST want to give them MORE USD when they already have, according to Sonny, 8-12 TRILLION USD? Your reasoning is completely circular. You're saying it's worth more because it's backed by other currencys that are worth more because the dinar is worth more. It's complete nonsense.