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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While most economists have stopped worrying that the U.S. will fall into a double-dip recession, one influential economist maintains his position that the nation won't be able to avoid a new downturn. Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said on Friday that his research firm is sticking with the forecast it made in September: A new recession is inevitable, despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, such as job creation and unemployment, and a stock market rally. ECRI is one of the more widely respected firms on economic recessions, as it has never been wrong when forecasting that a recession would start, or failed to predict a recession well before it was widely accepted. Achuthan predicts the recession will happen even without a new shock to the economy, such as a spike in oil and gas prices or a Greek sovereign debt default sparking a financial meltdown. If those things occur, he says they will simply make an inevitable recession more painful. In fact, Achuthan said data gathered since his September forecast only confirms his view that economic growth has slowed to such a degree that a downturn is now unavoidable, likely by late summer. "Now that we have several months of definitive hard data, this is not a forecast," he said, pointing to key measures that don't receive as much attention from the public or many economists. Specifically, he identifies annual growth in industrial production, real personal income and spending, as well as the year-over-year change in gross domestic product, a broad measure of the nation's economic activity. That GDP reading has been stuck between 1.5% and 1.6% growth for the last three quarters, far less encouraging that the rising quarterly GDP, which is more widely reported. "Basically, growth has flatlined," he said. Some might think that a new downturn would be a so-called double-dip recession, in that it comes before the economy has fully recovered from the jobs lost during the Great Recession. But Achuthan said if the economy falls into recession at this point, it would be a new recession, not a double dip, given the time that has passed since the formal end of the recession in 2009 and the economic growth since then. He said improved consumer confidence and economists' stronger outlook are due to gains in jobs and stocks over the last six months. The unemployment rate has fallen for five straight months, dropping to 8.3% in January compared to 9.1% in August. Filings for new jobless benefits have fallen to a nearly four-year low. And the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index has gained 27% since an October low to reach the highest level since June 2008. Even ECRI's own leading indicators have been showing steady improvement since October. But Achuthan said those readings are still recessionary. He said the time it takes employers to increase staff means that job growth is a so-called lagging indicator, which reflects economic conditions in the past rather than pointing to future growth. "Job growth always follows consumer spending growth, not the other way around," Achuthan said. That doesn't necessarily mean the economy will start losing jobs again by this summer, when he expects the recession to start. He said hiring can continue in the early months of a downturn, but there will definitely be job losses ahead. He credited stocks' rise to central banks' infusing the global economy with money. He said the so-called velocity of money, the number of times a dollar is spent by consumers, has fallen to a record low in recent months, which he sees as another indicator of underlying weakness. "The world central banks are printing money as never before in history," he said. "The money is not boosting economic growth, but [it's] still there and it goes into risk assets." Achuthan's views are not widely accepted. In a CNNMoney survey of economists in December, they cut the double-dip recession risk to 20% from 30% only three months earlier. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey of economists finds that most forecast improved growth and hiring through this year and for the next three years. Achuthan denies that he is taking a bearish view of the economy, saying that when others worried about a double-dip recession risk in the fall of 2010, he saw no signs of a downturn at that time. But more than 50 years of economic data followed by his firm has shown him that when underlying growth slows to this degree, a recession always follows. "I don't like to be the skunk at the garden party," he said. First Published: February 24, 2012: 2:52 PM ET

This is very good news. Nuff Said !

It will be IRS Section 988. This will be ordinary income, This has been talked about in the forum, you should look at some of the past postings

Liberals, socialists and communists are merely people without intellectual hygiene, which results in intellectual colostomy bags that leak or explode and splatter a $hitty mess all over the place.

When senator Cariey was running for pres he said it would take to long, ten years. to get the oil field in Alaska going. Well it would be producing oil right now. If we keep listing to the dems we will never get this country back on it's feet.

65 million barrels exported in jan was estimated at 7.123 billion dollars. If you use this amount times 12 you come up with 85.476 billion dollars. As we all have read there production is growing. So this amount should increase. I hope they get there S--- together and get there country moveing.

I put a string of firecrackers in a hall locker with a cigarette as a timer and went to class, It seemed to take for ever. I didn,t tell anyone before or after, It saved my ass the teachers were realy pissed.

I tryed to cut and paste the hole story but I could not get it to work.

General petraeus was aware of Hashemis crimes, but was not alowed to tell the Iraq goverment. Till just resently. I read this last night.

I like The Big Bang!

I was going to give someone a green vote and it showed red This has been happening sence the 24th.

If I see his name I go by, If he was in the same room after RV I would leave, most everthing from the GET team isBS.

I was wondering about hi also.

Thanks for the post

This sounds like we are there! Everone should listen.

I thought I would take the bills to a notrey.

I bought mine several years ago and don't have the packing slip. I have read that we might be waiting till late next year and I would like to be able to show a date of ownership of these bills.

I live here in Wichita and would like to get your input after RV the forum would not let me send a email to you.

The dollar is at a 2 1/2 year low and might lose 20% more and Our goverment will piss of any money they get from RV. the price of gold and silver is very high and going higher The dinar is backed with alot of oil and should go up. So saveing some for a few more years I think would be a good idea. But you would have to watch the news of the country. This is what they call a ground floor opportunity I bought my dinars in 97 and just forget about them till this year and have been following since. I am happy I missed out on alot of the BS.

I thought that was one of the most important ideams left to finish, Sence the date has past and no posts I guess it did'nt happen. Nuff said.

I thought the cbi had been removeing the dinar and the amount of dinar was much lower than the 27 trillion that was printed.

There have been several post claming that the RV has started. If so it would be a way to test the system out and find the bugs or bottle necks in the system. Also as we all know there is a lot of interest in what is about to happen, I think this will only grow after this thing take off, I think the rate will go up for a time. I plan on cashing out some and hold some and wait and watch for the move up!

Wouldn't 21 billion make a big bent in the amount of in country currency ? If this was done. I think the US would want something for makeing that kind of payment. It's just a thought!

It is pretty early but there is a lot of destruction and despair if a new goverment is brought in they will need investments. I would think it would be another long term investment.

I was looking for a good investment advisor and I came across the NAPFA-- The national association of personal financial advisors. They are a fee only advisors and no hidden fees. I have always try to do it myself but not much to show for it so with the money I will hopefull be seeing I want to make it grow I'm a VIP but I don't know anything about who will be near me. The website of the advisor near me saids that there is no fee to set down and talk to them and develop a plan GO RV