zul

Contrary to IMF warnings/suggestions (re: Iraq's budget-deficit spendings), we know government deficits are often necessary to boost private sector. I think I can see where Iraq is going with these spendings..esp. with their reconstructions coming up, their private sectors ~ crawling, their unemployment rates ~ high. As a matter of arithmetic, the Govt has to run deficits if it wants to help the private sector to grow... When government spends, it simply means another segment of the economy will be getting the money. So i think 70 billion dollar deficits (Iraq 2020 budget) is a good amount to kickstart their private sectors. Their (new and young) economy could absorb these amount without causing much shocks or inflations AND they already have their new fiscal policy (FML) to keep them in check as to where their money is going. Bear in mind, sharp, severe economic downturns happens NOT when govt fiscals are in surpluses but when private sectors are in large deficits. The private (domestic) sector needs to be in surpluses to keep the growth going.

See u in Maui.....🍸

The mathematic is simple ~ to attract more oil and gas investment, get the HCL done. They know it, we know it.

So what is that one MCP under Section 3.1 ***{1}? UNDER Section 3.1*** {1} I believe, all it takes to remove this one MCP (one bank acct for a min of 6 months), is just a matter of CBI issuing one circular to all banks telling them that the requirement is no longer applicable./ And that will happens when CBI stops the currency auctions ~ as and when they transit to IMF Art.8 Not much of an issue actually, it will be resolved once CBI decides to do so.

It seems, all over the world, central banks are cutting interest rates ~ making fundings easily available and cheap...../ creating rooms for more quantitative easing...

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-28/the-world-economy-s-biggest-week-of-2019-as-fed-prepares-cut "There will be no chance of a summer break for investors or policy makers in coming days as they brace for what might be the busiest week for the world economy this year."

1.20? I will be in Maui with u guys 🍸. Will let the Iraqis enjoy their $3.65.

cheers!

are we there already?

Now......think this way ~ why would any sane mind wants to give up their dollar or euro? In exchange for what ~ unconvertible currency? Like many have said here.....something big is about to happen, it's not an IF but a WHEN.

Wow!! That is even bigger than Kuwait's 2019/20 revenue...😎 (Kuwait: Revenues in 2019-2020’s budget were estimated at $53 billion and the expenditure at $74 billion.)

Quote: "Donors have expressed wariness at what some see as throwing good money into a black hole in Iraq, which Transparency International, an anti-corruption research group, ranks as among the 10 most corrupt nations in the world. Of the $61 billion in American funds spent on development aid in Iraq between 2003 and 2012, around $6 billion vanished and a further $1 billion was wasted, American auditors concluded." Mr. Abadi has made fighting corruption a priority, and his ministers have promoted a 300-page manifesto for investment that acknowledges past failures and pledges better oversight and fiscal management for reconstruction funds." This pledged for better oversight and fiscal management has now been legislated as Financial Management Law - a law, which they said, would increase the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar. I think that is the why...🐒

I dont worry too much about that Flo. IMF Boards are using the standard IMF 'template' for their article 4 assessment. They have to fill up the blanks. They can't leave it blank/empty and I never expect them to put in the new rates either... All is good.

I like this part.... But first of all.....~ banking reforms is always an ongoing process....and Iraq has been making big progress on this. And will continue to do so....there will be no end. Since the introduction of currency auctions, banks in Iraq have not been doing real banking or providing real banking services to their customers. Their focus was always on making money/profit from currency auctions. But now: Iraq is transitioning back into open market economy, and so is their banking sector. The call by IMF to 'overhaul' their banking sector ~ simply means - they need to shift their focus to a more sustainable form of banking so that they will be more market-oriented, more aligned and integrated/connected itself into the global economic and financial system. And CBI has been (and still is) right there, on top of the situations with all the instructions and procedures (supervision). We are good to go......

Thx Thug.... 😊

🍸🍸

Surely is Navira..........10 pages of instructions and mechanisms on counting and replacement of banknotes. I think they have circulated these instructions once before, late last year if I'm not mistaken). So this must be a reminder to the banks (of some sorts)........ ~ something huge is about to happen...🎻

🍸🍸 Maui......am I invited? Let's go....

When CBI controls (or influenced) the rise of the float, the monetary/financial term for this is managed float (or crawling peg). This is not a free float exchange rate ~ which is good for Iraq. Monetarily and financially speaking, any movement of exchange rate, in an open market, from 1190 to 3 dollar within 3 years IS a meteoric rise. It will go against the main (and basic) principle of IMF and against the policy of any central banks i.e STABILITY. It would be too scary for them 😂. The better (and less scary ) choice is for them to go into the open financial market with a pre-determined value (RV) and let it float within the spesified band ~ managed by CBI from then on.

Very true.

Tq Bros...let's go.

Iraq has been building up their foreign reserves and this tells me that they are planning (or continue to) to fix the value of their currency in terms of their foreign reserves. Traditionally, countries with floating exchange rate don't have huge foreign reserves. ( Eg. USA foreign currency reserves is only $123.5 billion as of August 2018 vs 1.6 trillion cash in circulation). ( i think)...when IMF suggested to iraq that they need to liberalize their exchange rate ~ a full floating regime is NOT the only option. Iraq could adopt a safer options (in terms of stability) of a managed float exchange rate which consist of a band (a fluctuation range), a basket of currencies (which they have been talking about), and allowing the exchange rates to appreciate or depreciate at a pace under CBI's control. With their huge reconstructions cost (about 80 billion USD), we can expect huge capital surge coming into Iraq over a short period of time and this would put a lot of upward pressure on their exchange rate (IF they were to full float their exchange rate), causing stress and overheating to their economy and a source of deflation which could be disruptive and very harmful to their reconstruction process. I don't think iraq would want that. What I think iraq would do is to RV their currency to a value (eg. Equivalent to 1 USD), thus absorbing the impact of sudden upward pressure to their exchange rate, and then managed float from there........giving them the much needed stability for their reconstruction process. They keyword here is: STABILITY.

On the other hand, it is hard to dismiss anything right now, knowing that they will begin reconstruction of damaged cities anytime now ~ involving investors (not just contractors) from many countries who (i'm sure) will not risk coming into Iraq without Iraq opening her economy to open market (aka IMF art.8) which will turn Iraqi dinar into a convertible currency. They already have their new monetary runway (FML) ready for takeoff. We'll see.....but there's no turning back for me now...