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bostonangler
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - World stock markets should fall further on Monday after a record contraction in China's manufacturing and service sectors because of the coronavirus outbreak, illustrating the massive potential economic impacts of the epidemic for the rest of the globe.
The outbreak has already caused massive disruptions in industry, led U.S. equities to suffer their worst weekly selloff since the financial crisis and knocked trillions off the market value of global stocks.
The first proper glimpse of how much economic damage the outbreak has inflicted so far came from China, the world's second-largest economy where the epidemic began.
China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a widely-watched measure of economic activity, fell to a record low in February, data showed on Saturday, with a worrying collapse in domestic and export orders and a contraction of the country's burgeoning service sector.
Investors believe the next few days will reveal whether the outbreak is accelerating in the United States, the world's biggest economy, how much the U.S. government is prepared to deal with an epidemic, and the economic damage in other countries.
"Right now the market is saying that this is unbounded. We don't know what the limits are and we don't know where it's going to peak," said Graham Tanaka, chief investment officer at New York-based Tanaka Capital.
Stock markets globally lost about $5 trillion of value last week, as measured by the MSCI all-country index that comprises stocks across 23 developed and 26 emerging markets.
The S&P 500 shed 11% last week, entering correction territory, while the Dow and the Nasdaq also registered their deepest weekly percentage losses since October 2008.
The February China PMI readings are the first snapshot of the economy's state since the start of the coronavirus outbreak that has killed almost 3,000 people in mainland China and infected about 80,000.
The data indicates the economic disruption from the virus could extend to the whole first quarter of 2020 since the outbreak has caused widespread transport curbs and required tough public health measures that have paralysed economic activity.
Capital Economics estimates China's economy would contract outright in year-on-year terms this quarter, the first time since at least the 1990s.
"The worst China manufacturing PMI in history will shock the market on Monday," ING economists wrote.
"Covid-19 has not only stopped production but has also broken the supply chain of production,...." they said.
Investors are looking to the United States, where the outbreak and efforts to prepare for its possible spread have become political during a presidential election year.
The White House has played down the crisis and described the high level of news coverage as a ploy to hurt President Donald Trump's efforts to secure a second term.
"The next line in the sand is if we see cases expand in the U.S.," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
Signs that Japan could cancel its 2020 Summer Olympics--after years of preparation and some $12 billion in investment--would be another unwelcome development, Janasiewicz said.
The International Olympic Committee has said it is committed to holding the Games on schedule.
Tanaka, of Tanaka Capital, said he is closely watching the U.S. response, including whether the government has been able to secure more kits to test for the virus.
He has trimmed his position in shares of Tesla Inc and sold all his energy sector holdings as crude prices plummeted. But he continues to hold airline stocks JetBlue Airways Corp and Alaska Air Group Inc despite concerns about travel demand.
Others are looking to the government bond market, a popular destination for nervous investors. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note, which move inversely to prices, hit an all-time low Friday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-data-portends-more-punishment-090430920.html
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9 hours ago, bigwave said:
BAD ACTORS ARE CRASHING THE MARKETS: To Stop the Current Short Sale Attack on the Stock Market President Trump Must Reinstate the Uptick Rule
To Stop the Current Short Sale Attack on the Stock Market President Trump Must Reinstate the Uptick Rule
President Trump needs to reinstate the uptick rule to stop the short seller attack on the market. The uptick rule worked great from 1938 to 2007. The current modified uptick rule in place since 2010 doesn’t work. Reinstate the uptick rule and stop the short seller attack.
The Uptick Rule in place from 1938 to 2007 prevented a short sale of a stock unless the previous trade caused an increase in price (an “uptick”). It was put in place by the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 in response to the stock market crash in the Great Depression to prevent future attacks on the market by short sellers.
The rule was eliminated by the SEC in 2007, and the market crash of 2008-09, which was in part a short seller attack, followed almost immediately. The resulting crash absolutely helped Democrats win in a landslide in 2008.
In response, the SEC introduced the “Alternative Uptick Rule” (Rule 201) in 2010, “which imposes restrictions on short selling only when a stock has triggered a circuit breaker by experiencing a price decline of at least 10 percent in one day.”
Did you forget Trump is an Elitist? He is one of them and has admitted to manipulating the markets in the past. He has admitted to putting out false info on potentially buying a company to drive up the price, only to sell and therefore cash in... I am always shocked that people forget things like this. He is a money man and could care less about the average person... I know I'm going to get negged for telling people the truth about his market manipulation, even though he has admitted it... Ahh The United States of Amnesia...
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11 hours ago, Pitcher said:
It’s more like 12-14% off the major Indices and yes some sectors like the Energy Sector are over 39% down off their Oct 2018 highs. Be careful buying this dip. We may go up for several days or so but this market is now waiting for the other shoe to drop. People who didn’t sell the rapid descent will be looking to sell into any strength, imo.
When you look look at the charts you can see a candlestick that suggests we will be going higher next week. Support is 2850 ish, then 2720 ish. If that gets breached on some bad news look out below.
There have been some rumors that the Fed will lower rates .75
(maybe this weekend) I expect at some point President Trump, our Fed, other Central Banks will prime the pump to get the world economy going again. I even think President Trump could possibly take off the Tariffs on China to get things rolling again. I just think it’s a little early for all of those activities. If they did it now I feel it would send the wrong message to the markets. We are in the early early innings of this virus and a rate change NOW really won’t help. Especially, IF this is not contained, and spreads into the US. We are just going to have to watch the news.
Below are my personal Daily and Weekly charts to show you what I’m seeing and what to look for in the next few days.
Daily chart.
The High on the S&P, which is now Resistance is 3393 ish. The Low which was today is now support system" rel="">support, and is 2850.
As you can see on the Daily the Price is below the 200dma. You can also see the bounce off 2850 ( a very good sign short term). A 25% retrace off that low would be around 2992ish, a 50% retrace would be 3125ish.
If you look at the moving averages you can see ( from the top going down) the 20 ema, the 50 ema, the 100 ema, and the 200 ema. I use the Exponential moving averages, some use a simple moving average. (Personal preference). After a terrible week down you can see the 50 ema starting to turn down. We will need to keep an eye on it to see if it crosses down the 100 ema and then the 200 ema. It’s not going to happen next week imo but AGAIN this market is very sensitive to the NEWS. If we retrace on good news then the 200 ema is your first target and then the 100 ema. Those moving averages will be like a fence that the Price will need to break through on the way up.
We did a lot of damage to the Technicals this week but the market overshoots to the downside and this selloff was too much, too fast, for the news imo. Some people will trade this bounce ( I saw it this morning and did real well in my trade in NVDA), others will sell into strength, some will hold no matter what, and lastly some will rebalance out of their high growth stocks and buy some bonds and stocks that are high yield dividend payers. Whatever way you go be patient.
I’m expecting a retest of the low of 2850 ish or double bottom before we get a sustained new trend up. ( and that’s if we hold that support system" rel="">support at 2850). That will probably take days, weeks or months, unless the NEWS goes bad. If you haven’t sold yet and are looking to sell some into this bounce, look for the first target at that 200 ema and then the 100 ema. Filter out just in case it shoots past the 50% retrace. If you are wanting to buy this dip as a trade be very very careful, and if you are thinking the new bottom is in filter in as it goes up.
I’m passing out a lot of information but I want to say again, I am not your financial advisor and what I am sharing is very elementary and basic. For more detailed information you can send me a check for 2k and I will tell you exactly what is going to happen. Haha, Please, I have no idea where we are headed. I just Trade what I see and rely on my 20 plus years of trading and 40 plus years of investing experience. I will leave one last piece of advice. Never bet against the USA, and if you have a long term time frame you will do very well in the markets over 25-45 years. Try not to worry and try not to do something in haste or knee jerk. Best of luck to you all.
Daily chart
Weekly chart. That was one terrible week!!!!
Thanks Pitcher... I do agree it is early and there will be a Dead Cat Bounce before it drops again. My point was that people need not panic but to wait for buying opportunities... You and I have talked about having money on the sidelines for a while and there will be the point where we will see the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Many people are going to freak out when they get their quarterly statements for their 401ks and that could cause another selling frenzy.... I hope people have moved some of their profits from the incredible 10 year bull market so they will be able to buy on the cheap. If you are retired or about to retire and need to live off your savings this could be a disaster for you. I had friends who were at that point in 2007 and didn't have time to recover and get their money back. The same could happen now for some folks. If you have time to wait it out the returns will be worth the wait... JMHO
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I see it like this.... If I walk in a store and everything is priced 20 or 25% off.... That's when you buy... Same with the markets, right now everything is on sale.....
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S&P Futures
2,932.00-25.00(-0.85%)Dow Futures
25,330.00-222.00(-0.87%)Nasdaq Futures
8,320.25-62.50(-0.75% -
I've been in a McDonald's that looked like that... I did call the health department, but never went back to a McDonald's.
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1 hour ago, Karsten said:
Well....According to the CDC the Flu has Killed more people in just the US than the Covid-19 Virus has World Wide.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC.6 days agoFlu deaths up in the new year: CDC Flu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized.<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year, According to the CDC
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year
While everyone is in a panic about the coronavirus (officially renamed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization), there's an even deadlier virus many people are forgetting about: the flu.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I don't think I am going to worry much about this Covid-19 that was most likely some sort of Bio Weapon that got loose.
Karsten
You're not looking at the percentage, just total numbers.... Based on total numbers, the Flu kills .1% of those affected. As of now, CoronaVirus is killing people at 2%... That's 20 times more deadly... These are early numbers based on the last month or so, so in reality we all need to wait for a bit to see how the numbers skew. JMHO
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Just now, adhoc10 said:
Hey B/A, I usually agree with most of what you say, but I wasn't sure what version of medical science you subscribe to. I am referring to evidence based science, not the stuff they cook up in the lab..
I concur.... I think it is best to see what the experts say and not the politicians, or the CDB sellers...
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2 minutes ago, Pitcher said:
Hey that bottom one looks like my dog!!!! LOL
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1 minute ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:
it's not a pandemic YET
Pandemic is defined as being on every continent. You mean epidemic.
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4 minutes ago, Starrider said:
I'm not trying to be funny I'm just get tired of the blame shifting on to the President BC of all the sore losers. If you don't like him then don't VOTE for him Enuff said.
Starr
Starr whose blaming Trump? He's the saying it has to do with politics... That's just asinine.... This is about economics... Nearly everything in your house has something from China... Your TV, phone, computer, alarm clock, prescription drugs... Those factories have been closed for weeks... Supply and demand. The demand is still there but supply is dwindling...
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3 minutes ago, adhoc10 said:
Good luck with that I am going to rely on proven science and research and making my own informed choices rather than , counting on the latest marketing that is normally used to herd people to the next miracle medical breakthrough hype from corporations,
I believe you just agreed with me..... Science not politics...
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1 minute ago, Starrider said:
Starr
Sorry, Starr but this isn't funny and not political... I could care less about the politics... Now is the time to be proactive, not reactionary.
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2 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:
Historically these "flu's" do decline in the Spring and Summer........and can return in the late fall..... CL
True, but I'm betting my life on doctors and scientists... Not a business man....
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Just now, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:
Yes I read the article. The lady from the Center for Disease Control who made the 2% rates statement is Rob Rosenstein sister. Therefore I don't believe a word came out of her demonic control mouth. Especially when her Superior came back the next day and said that was not the case. There are now 58 cases of coronavirus in America and no one has died yet.
like I said it's sad what you've allowed to control your spirit.
Don't worry, Trump said it will go away when it gets warm...
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1 minute ago, Pitcher said:
I have been picking my battles. I have been shorting and going long. I was Long MRNA for 3 days. I’m just trying to remain calm and trade what my charts tell me is a good opportunity. The problem with just going short is when we get the relief rallies you can really lose a lot of money. That’s why I Day Trade and just wait out these corrections. I will be looking to go Long in a few months.
I just would like like to take this opportunity to give my opinion of a Dinar RV/RI/ going International and coming in at a low rate and then a float. You can go back a few years on my posts where I stated I thought there would be a big sell off in the market before the rate change. I actually thought we were close in 2011, 2015, and again in 2018. Will this be the big sell off before a rate change. I don’t know but it wouldn’t surprise me. We will have to get through this virus first that may take 3-8 months or maybe even longer.
One more thing to consider. If Sanders wins the Dem Nomination you will probably see another leg down in the market.
Good luck on your trades.... I hope you are right about the RV...
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Reuters
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Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Wednesday declined to promise that a coronavirus vaccine would be affordable for all Americans, sparking outrage from Democrats.
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"We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price because we need the private sector to invest," Azar told members of Congress.
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On Monday, the president asked Congress for $2.5 billion in funding to fight the coronavirus — more than $1 billion of that funding will be designated for vaccine development.
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Democratic leadership criticized the president's request as "anemic" and inadequate.
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Wednesday declined to promise that a coronavirus vaccine would be affordable for all Americans.
"We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price because we need the private sector to invest," Azar told members of Congress during a hearing concerning the coronavirus outbreak and the administration's budget request. "Price controls won't get us there."
Democrats and other critics quickly condemned Azar.
"Secretary Azar is refusing to promise that a Coronavirus vaccine will be affordable to every American. Kick them out of office," Sen. Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat, tweeted Wednesday evening.
The progressive group Center for American Progress tweeted, "This is a global health crisis, and everyone should have the right to medication that will help protect them from this virus."
While government and private researchers around the world are working quickly to develop a vaccine for the virus, it is estimated any vaccine is still several months away. The best preventative measure is regular thorough handwashing.
On Monday, the president asked Congress for $2.5 billion in funding to fight the coronavirus — more than $1 billion of that funding will be designated for vaccine development. Democratic leadership criticized the president's request as "anemic" and inadequate.
As of Wednesday, the US has confirmed 60 cases of the novel coronavirus that originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.
The virus causes a disease known as COVID-19, which has killed nearly 2,800 people and infected more than 81,000 since December. The vast majority of cases and deaths have been in China.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has confirmed cases in six states: Arizona, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington, and Wisconsin. Officials have recorded two cases of human-to-human transmission among family members.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-says-coronavirus-vaccine-233756118.html
At least we'll have a wall.
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1 minute ago, Indraman said:
Thanks for the article. So there is a pretty substantial difference in the kill rates...
Flu - 0.1%
Coronavirus - 2%
20x
Indy
scary...
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6 minutes ago, md11fr8dawg said:
I agree!!
Check BCLI... I bought at $4... They have had some really good news lately.
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No asset class appears to be safe amid the current global market rout. And while it goes without saying that people are losing money, the phenomenon may underscore something far more ominous.
“For the last few weeks, while we've had this volatility, you've had stocks zig while bonds zag. So every time stocks went up, bonds tailed off and vice-versa,” Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir said on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round. “All of a sudden, that behavior changed a little bit into the close yesterday. And making it even more dangerous to me, you saw oil fall off into the close. Commodities were selling off. Even Bitcoin was selling off into the close.”
Typically when uncertainty spikes in financial markets, traders and investors will rotate out of risky assets like stocks and into ‘safe haven’ assets like bonds or perhaps gold. When this happens, risky asset prices go down and safer asset prices go up.
But when market participants are panicking, they begin to cash out of everything. And that can lead to even more panic.
In a note to his clients titled “Did Someone Hit the ‘Sell Everything’ Button?,” Tchir wrote that “While increases in volatility are concerning for market participants, changes in correlations, while more esoteric are far more dangerous. Changes in correlation can affect portfolio level volatility far more dramatically than a simple increase in volatility across asset classes (sounds wonky, but this is important).“
The U.S. services sector is at risk
While panic selling is often characterized by the indiscriminate dumping of assets with little regard to fundamentals (like the supply and demand for goods and services), Tchir notes that there may be something real to justify what’s happening in world markets as the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) affects consumer behavior.
“I'm really focused on the tourism angle,” Tchir said to Yahoo Finance. “China has become a huge consumer of tourism. The Chinese spend more money outside of China than any other country spends on foreign travel. I think that's part of the reason we had very weak service data last week. And that service data, to me, has been really important.”
An electronic display board showing a precautionary notice of the coronavirus at a deserted upscale shopping mall in Beijing. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)Tchir was pointing to last Friday’s IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI report, which suggested that U.S. services activity was at a 76-month low.
This is critical because services eclipses manufacturing in the U.S. economy.
“For the past few years, every time we get a hiccup we can argue, ‘Well, we're not a manufacturing economy, we're now a service economy,’” Tchir said. “If services go, that is very problematic. I think that's going to get hit very quickly by this slowdown in foreign travel from other countries.”
Portfolio hedges are breaking down
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has fallen a whopping 2,400 points since last Wednesday.
For folks with diversified portfolios, the expectation is that some of the non-risky (e.g. non-equity) asset classes should provide some hedges.
That’s not happening. And that could make things worse.
“I think volatility has been elevated long enough that there is some selling pressure which is also changing correlations, causing more selling pressure,” Tchir wrote. “I expect portfolio volatility to increase as funds caught in the same trades create a vicious cycle of needing to sell everything, exactly when buyers of everything are being tentative.
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Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, who told his listeners that alarmism about the coronavirus was a plot to bring down President Trump, has attacked the CDC official who warned Americans that the virus will inevitably spread in the U.S.
“Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the Centers for Disease Control — which today warned it could be bad, it might be bad, don’t go to school and don’t go to work, stay at home and teleconference — is the sister of the former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein,” Limbaugh said on Tuesday’s program.
Rosenstein, who resigned from the Justice Department last May, oversaw the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller that President Trump sought to stop.
Limbaugh explained why he believed Messonnier’s relationship to Rosenstein mattered: “It’s just in that town, I’m telling you, everything is incestuous. Most of that town is establishment-oriented or rooted, which means they despise Trump,” he said.
Limbaugh received the Presidential Medal of Freedom from Trump at his State of the Union speech last month.
On Monday, Limbaugh dismissed the danger presented by the coronavirus outbreak, which has so far killed over 2,700 people worldwide.
“It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump,” Limbaugh said on his radio program. “Now, I have to tell you the truth about coronavirus. ... Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.”
Rush Limbaugh and National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Director Nancy Messonnier. (Mario Tama/Getty Images, Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
While the coronavirus first presents symptoms similar to those of the common cold — including headache, sore throat and fever — some infected with the virus develop difficulty breathing that can progress into life-threatening respiratory distress syndrome.
“The drive-by media hype of this thing as a pandemic, as the Andromeda strain, as, ‘Oh my God, if you get it you’re dead,’ do you know what the — I think the survival rate is 98 percent. Ninety-eight percent of the people get the coronavirus and survive.”
That figure appears to be correct, according to testimony in Congress Tuesday by the acting head of the Department of Homeland Security, Chad Wolf, but it might not be as reassuring as Limbaugh's comments implied. No one can predict how many Americans might contract the virus, but if it infects, say, 10 percent of the country, or 33 million people, a 2 percent mortality rate translates to 660,000 deaths. That is almost 10 times the number of Americans who died of opioid overdoses in 2017, about 70,000.
In his testimony, Wolf said the 2 percent figure was roughly the same as the death rate from seasonal influenza. In fact, flu kills just 0.1 percent of patients, a rate one-20th as high.
With fears rising of a pandemic of coronavirus, which in two months has quickly spread from China to South Korea, Europe and the Middle East, Trump plans to address the nation about the U.S. government’s response.
So far there are only 59 cases of the coronavirus reported in the U.S., but the government has tested only 445 people, according to the CDC. The test itself has been found to be faulty, the Washington Post reported, leading health officials to state that the number of U.S. cases could be drastically underreported.
Initially, however, Trump downplayed the threat of the virus to the U.S., and encouraged Americans to invest in the stock market, which suffered a massive sell-off on Monday and Tuesday.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/limbaugh-and-trump-fuel-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-202831981.html
Idiots.....
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1 minute ago, Pitcher said:
Sure looks that way BA. The Market is finally starting to price in the fact that this virus situation is probably going to get worse before it gets better. Last night Microsoft warned of lowered earnings guidance and Goldman Sachs warned today. Looks like we are heading to a new Recession. Companies are having trouble with their supply chain from China. It sure reminds me of 9-11-01. Time to buckle up, it’s going to get rocky. BTW a Fed cut won’t help one bit.
Yup, Goldman Sachs, just put their forecast for the year and it isn't pretty... I don't short, but I know you do... You must have made some great trades this week.
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3 minutes ago, coorslite21 said:
House of Representatives adjourns its extraordinary session
- Time: 02/27/2020 15:33:48
- Reading: 910 times
- Categories: Animated news tape, Iraq news
{Baghdad: Al Furat News} The House of Representatives postponed its special session, which was scheduled today, Thursday, to vote on granting confidence to the cabinet of the Prime Minister-designate, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi, until further notice.The quorum for holding the session was not achieved due to the continuing differences between the parliamentary blocs.
Ammar Al-Masoudi endedWow I am totally shocked..... That was a joke.
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Priest Warns President May Be 'God's Judgement On America'
in Politics, 2nd Amendment (Gun Control)
Posted
Right you are because men of God care for the poor and impoverished. They aren't tempted by greed. They work for humanity...
Oh wait what was I thinking... There are plenty of greedy and unconcerned clergy... That's why the Catholics own billions in properties and artwork and pay lawyers to defend them. And Evangelicals build churches bigger than football stadiums and their preachers wear $5,000 suits and drive Cadillacs. Or every other religion cashing in off their followers to enjoy the riches.
So I guess you are wrong Mark, religion is very much right wing in their love of money and power...
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