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coldwarvet
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Posts posted by coldwarvet
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Thanks Adam. Best recap I've read in a long time. Much appreciated!
P.S. You got me for a second with the April Fool's joke. Touche'!
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Hi Adam,
Since this is my first post with a question for you, let me start by adding my thanks for all that you do for all of us. Much appreciated!
I've noticed that many DV members seem to assume that the new rate and the 2015 budget will be announced simultaneously, and that therefore the latest news of a Jan. 7th budget vote pushes the rate announcement back to that date as well. Since Gov. Shabbibi has always said that it's best that a new rate starts at the beginning of the year, how likely do you think it would be that the rate is announced announced Jan. 1st, and then the budget, with the new rate, is voted on Jan. 7th?
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Since this is labeled an Op/Ed piece, it should be moved to Opinions.
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I want to say at the outset that I have not posted for a long time, nor am I what some people would characterize as a "conspiracy buff," i.e., I listen to neither Alex Jones or any of the other folks in that media niche, nor the less-than-credible mainstream media.
But it really strikes me as odd that, just as the Iraqi government and economy were about to move into the next phase of their journey toward prosperity, to become a world economic powerhouse, ISIS conveniently popped up, almost literally out of nowhere, and began making apparently huge advances out of Syria into Iraq.
More recently, we now see ISIS rapidly falling back as opposition within Iraq becomes better organized, perhaps indicating that they are not as powerful a force as we were led to believe in the mainstream media.
So let me pose this question: could this have been an elaborate ruse? Was it in part (not solely) designed to convince those many of us who are not members of the global Elite to abandon our investment in the IQD? Is it designed to ensure that only the originally intended beneficiaries, i.e., the aforementioned global Elites, would wind up as the sole group who would benefit from investment in Iraq?
PLEASE NOTE: I am not saying that I believe this is the case. But I would like to see others' opinions on this topic. If you have evidence, one way or another, please include it in your post.
Thanks!
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Having been raised a Catholic, and now in "recovery" from that experience, I view Francis as a long overdue breath of fresh air, someone who may be able to finally use his position for genuine reform of the Catholic Church, rather than stubbornly clinging to the ossified status quo. Time will tell.
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20 years of service as a pilot in the Air Force, 1972-1992. Three tours of duty in the B-52 bomber, one in the T-38 trainer as a flight instructor, staff assignments at the Pentagon and the Air Force Personnel Center. In contrast to the way we were treated post-Vietnam in the 1970s, it is great to see how many people now acknowledge the contribution and sacrifice of our troops.
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Ladies and Gentlemen of Dinarvets,
My username on this site, coldwarvet, is due to the fact that I served for 20 years in the Air Force, from 1972 til 1992. Over half my career was as a B-52 pilot, pulling nuclear alert duty throughout the United States.
There is a factual error in this post that I must, in good conscience, correct. The narrative asserts that nuclear weapons were only located at Dyess Air Force Base starting in the 1980s. I know for a fact that Dyess was a B-52 base, supporting our nuclear deterrence mission, long before the 1980s. Perhaps this is an inadvertent error, but it calls into question the veracity of the remainder of the post.
Check your facts before you post, folks. If you want to be believed, you need to ensure your facts can be verified.
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Let's look at this from an economic management point of view. If the GOI and CBI were interested purely in cleaning up the accounting system, the only two things they would have had to do were: 1. Educate the Iraqi population (you can arguably assert that was the purpose for all the "raising the zeroes" articles over the years); and 2. Print the required number of lower denominations (supposedly that was already been done a while ago). So if we assume both of those conditions have been satisfied, then why haven't they pulled the trigger?
At the same time we have seen the numerous "delete the zeroes" articles, we have ALSO seen many articles about the tremendous resource wealth of Iraq (primarily oil, but also agriculture, and (more recently) substantial gold reserves). Could there be a connection between these articles and the ones mentioned above? Hmmmm!
Thirdly, as was mentioned earlier, Saleh is no longer in a position of influence, so his opinion is about as worthwhile as anyone else's at this point.
Bottom line: I don't think it's purely a coincidence that they have delayed their currency reform, and that all they talk about in the media is "raising the zeroes." If they wanted to simply RD (LOP) they would have/could have done so a long time ago. Time will tell what will actually transpire. Film at 11. :-)
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I was referred to Dinar Trade by a friend who has a very large amount of IQD purchased from them. The friend is also personal friends with Ali, the owner. While the charges against the individuals look legitimate, the portion of the lawsuit against the firms looks like the typical trial lawyer tactic of spreading your net wide (i.e., sue as many individuals/groups as you can) and see what you can catch. I'm not worried, and hope no one lese who purchased from DT is either.
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Obviously the low value of the IQD is having a negative economic impact. So RV already!
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This is a good sign. They are obviously getting a lot of work done, despite being in the middle of Ramadan. Let's hope they keep going! :-)
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This is nothing more than an example of tribalism at its worst. If the shoe was on the other foot, they'd be complaining about Allawi being the dictator, and the Shiites would want him to step down. It has ever been thus in that area of the world for millennia. Obviously it hasn't changed much, if at all!
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Regardless of the multiple opinions, the fact remains: the GOI and/or CBI will not, under any circumstances, telegraph their intentions publicly. ALL of the articles, both for and against an RD or an RV, mean nothing. We won't know what their real intentions are until the CBI's currency valuation numbers actually change. Until then, a very wise man once said "opinions are like a******s, everyone has one!" Have a great weekend!
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Humorous comments aside, Detroit is a classic example of what happens when the overdeveloped structure of government runs out of resources. It was British PM Margaret Thatcher who famously said, "socialism fails when it runs out of other people's money." When a governmental entity creates a structure that outgrows its revenue base, the result is Detroit. As long as we have citizens in this nation who hold others responsible for their lot in life, we will repeat Detroit's experience. Only when we require ourselves, and our fellow citizens, to take personal responsibility for our lives, will the Detroits become a thing of the past. In the meantime, get ready for a repeat performance elsewhere.
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Awesome as always. Thanks Adam!
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If all they do is RD, then they will disappoint the vast majority of Iraqi IQD holders, no matter what the new value. I can't see them doing that, especially since they could have done so a LONG time ago. An RD, to use a baseball analogy, would be "all windup and no pitch" in the minds of most Iraqis.
The combination of the Iraqi oil reserves, their current financial reserves, and the recently revealed gold tonnage in their possession has them in position to easily support an RV up to $2.50 per IQD. While I don't think they'll go that high, it is likely that the range will be between $.10 and $1.16. I'm leaning toward $1.16, for national pride purposes if nothing else. JMO. GO RV!
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Most of these replies are predicated on the assumption that Iraq will allow us to hold our assets until the value increases. I think that is highly unlikely. As has been stated many times before, Iraq has a pretty good handle on how much of their currency is held and where. Once they RV, I think it will 1.) be at least 1:1, perhaps a little above for national pride reasons; and 2.) there will be a relatively small window for cash-in, so they can get the large denoms off the street.
In answer to jv's initial question: I don't think that it will RV at .10 to begin with, but if it did, I'm taking the money and running.
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Thanks, Yota and Stryker. I've not seen anyone on this forum do the in depth analysis that Stryker just offered. Here's hoping he's right!
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Been a while since I've been on the forum. Great question! I agree that "debt free" is a great place to start. Credit cards, mortgage, etc. Better to own the house outright than keep paying on it. Buy a new car. I'd also pay off my son's law school loans. He's worked his a** off to become a tough but fair asst. DA in west Texas, and he deserves some help.
Next I'd take part of the proceeds to pay for a 10 year annuity with USAA. Only ten years, but that would allow me to diversify the rest into gold, silver, etc. Certainly not "rich," but comfortable. That's fine with me.
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I've said it before and I'll say it again: they could RD anytime they want. THis is one more LAME attempt to discourage investors/speculators in hopes they/we will throw in the towel. Complete Bravo Sierra. So definitely a NAY.
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I think Adam has the scenario nailed: an initial $.10 RV, with a time sensitive cash-in period, followed by a stair step up to 1:1. If it comes in at $.10 then, in the words of a famous Steve Miller Band song "go on, take the money and run!"
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I'm sticking with Adam's take on this. Iraq/CBI stand to make a LOT of money if they RV low, at about $.10 US per IQD, and then ratchet up the value over time to about 1:1. My guess is, for reasons of pride alone, they'll stabilize a small amount above the dollar.
All the signs are good for Iraq to exit chapter 7 in June; that may well be followed quickly by passage of the HCL, assuming the Kurds and Baghdad settle their differences (honestly, despite all the rhetoric, I don't see the Kurds being allowed to secede from Iraq; there are too many other interests that would be disrupted if that were to occur). So I think sometime in mid-June wuld be the next viable window for a low value RV. $.10 USD per IQD? I'll take it in a heart beat!
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Thanks for the post, sonny1. Great to get your input on this. Glad to see that there is indeed opposition to a straight RD in the GOI. I suspect that the CBI has known that all along, but has kicked the can in hopes the opposition would diminish. IN the meantime, GO July! GO RV!
It Finally Happened...
in Off Topic posts
Posted
Do you have a photo of Wat on second? LOL!!!