Networth

People shouldn't forget that this investment is not about us. Iraq has no obligation and no intention to do things according to what we want. They are an independent, sovereign nation and should do things according to their customs, cultures, traditions, and history. Not the IMF, not the UN, not China. It took our nation 12 years to ratify the Constitution from the time we declared our independence. Twelve years! I would argue Iraq is progressing at a much faster pace. Part of the problem, of course, is this investment has taken on a life of its own. Some pumper or sick, deranged individual that gets a kick out of watching a false rumor spread like wildfire. So he spreads more rumors which cause opinions to coalesce around a faulty conclusion. When it doesn't happen, he scrambles to deflect blame by blaming the GOI or some other nefarious, anonymous culprit. Anything but him. No one here knows when (or if) Iraq is going to RV it's currency. No one has a contact high up in the CBI or at some bank or in the hall's of Congress that has inside knowledge about the RV. No one. Not even Adam (which I'm sure he would admit). It is purely conjecture. It is nothing more than a pure (and in most cases, uneducated) guess. It means nothing. It influences nothing except our emotions. It, in my opinion, is unhealthy. Get off this train. Get on with your life. Stick your dinar in a drawer and forget about them. Or sell them. Whatever suits you best. But clinging to the predictions of every guru, prognosticator, and pumper is unhealthy for your physical well being. Very unhealthy. This investment isn't about us. It will never be about us. Don't try to make it about us. You will die trying.

It's a good question and it's really the grand assumption we all have been making. If people are honest about it, even Adam, I think they know in the back of their minds that the answer may be "no". That doesn't mean the dinar is a bad investment. I think it could realistically increase in value over an extended period of time. If the gov't can provide real security and the politicians can remain free of corruption and graft, the country has a lot going for it. They have a highly educated (comparatively) citizenry. They have a lot of oil. They have very little debt. Those are all good reasons to invest in the dinar. But your question is something everyone should honestly answer. To be honest, we can't let the emotion of WANTING the dinar to RV to cloud our answer.

BS might be probalby perfectly appropriate initials for this writer. Someone else is about to get added "no credibility" pile.

Tricia, you only have about 2 hours left before you get put in the "liar/pumper" pile along with TerryK, Blaino, and Possum. Good riddance.

Alright Tricia, you get an opportunity to prove to us that you are a credible source of information. But if tomorrow comes and goes with no action you will be added to the "no credibility" list. Possum is currently the only member (since I haven't been doing this very long). I want you to be right but I'm sure possum is lonely so he's probably hoping you're wrong so he's not the only one on the list.

I concur. The IMF is NOT going to revalue a country's currency. If the IMF had that sort of power they would revalue the yuan. Iraq is a sovereign, independent nation. They will revalue when (and if) it is in their best interest. Don't believe this nonsense. People are letting "dinar fever" cloud their thinking.

What are they pissed about? The smart card (supposedly) being loaded with only 250 dinar this month? Oh please. The 1250 dinar they used to get (supposedly) was worth only about a dollar. So are you trying to tell me that they are pissed that they are now getting only 20 cents? That's what put them over the edge? They may only be getting one-fifth of what they previously received but for all intents and purposes they can't still can't buy anything with it. They couldn't buy anything with 1250 dinar either. Their purchasing power hasn't been affected! This is getting a little silly. Sorry MED. I love ya but I ain't buying this one.

Possum is a proven liar/pumper. Ignore every post of his!

Possum is now a confirmed liar/pumper. Anything possum says should be ignored. One down, several hundred to go.

You got 8 hours to keep from looking like a chump, possum. Otherwise we're putting you on the ignore pile. It's time to start holding people accountable.

Yawn! It's time to start putting a little scrutiny behind these rumors. What specifically, is "signficant news"? That sounds like a Jean Dixon prediction. "Oh, I see celebration for a very prominent member of the Hollywood community this year." Give me a break. I don't mind giving credit where it is due but we should also start making a list of everybody that makes unsubstantiated declarations. It is a cruel, unnecessary heartache for information like this to be callously put out continuously with no accountability. Possum, you have 48 hours (actually about 36 now) to demonstrate your credibility. Otherwise, hit the showers!

Sure. And I'll bet 111 people hear about it at 01:11:11 in the morning also. LOL.

I read it. And I read Moe's post. One of them simply is not true. Which one? I don't know. I don't know what motive or motivation either one of you would have to be untruthful. Maybe you both are genuine and simply passing along information that you've been told or believe to be true. But I can't believe both of you. Your posts contain very different information. I have to use logic and common sense to try to determine which one is more likely to be true. So I tend to believe the poster that, apparently, has first hand knowledge, over the poster that, admittedly, has second or third hand knowledge. I'm not suggesting you're a pumper. I just don't believe the information in your post is occurring as it was told to you.

Why? I think they can absolutely say it is worthless. It is their currency. They can do what they want. Don't get me wrong, I hope they don't. But it is certainly not outside the realm of possiblity. For example, our own gov't could declare the $50 as no longer legal tender. I don't think they would because in our case there would be signifcant political problems. The $50 bill is widely owned and circulated. But it is certainly within their authority. In Iraq's case, they may not have the same political ramifications. Remember, the purpose of the RV is not to benefit us. If we are the majority of the people that own 25K notes, there is very little political risk in simply declaring it invalid. We shouldn't dismiss the possibility.

Seems pretty typical to me. Before I invested, I did a fair amount of research and found several web sites and information that were discouraging the dinar. People are naturally going to have differing opinions. If a report like this discourages people from buying, it's no skin off my teeth. Any family or friends that I've recommended this investment to have bought it based on my recommendation. But I had to answer several objections before they were confident. People should use an interview like this as just one more piece of information in their analysis. Just one more person's opinion. If we're completely honest about it, at this point it may be right. None of us have made any money on this investment yet and none of us know for certain if we will. We all believe we will, but it remains to be seen if our beliefs are correct.

No offense to "Okie" but I don't know anything about him. For all I know he could be a genuine guy simply trying to pass along information that he believes is from dependable sources. But he could also be some shut-in in his parents basement somewhere that gets a kick out of tugging at people's heartstrings in chat rooms. Since I have no idea who Okie is or what his intentions or motivations are, please excuse me if I pass this off as another unsubstantiated, not to be used as anything but entertainment rumor.

With my luck, it will RV a few days after I close my position. I'm certainly no expert investor. However, I have had the best results by being disciplined (nad unemotional) about my investments. If it doesn't RV in the next 9 months or so, I guess you can blame me for holding it up by not closing my position sooner.

For some time I've pegged my own RV meter at precisely 50%. That is, I would be no more surprised if there was an RV than if there wasn't an RV. I never considered an RV as an inevitable, destined outcome. I've always evaluated my dinar holdings strictly as an investment with a likely (eventual) return of 0-200%, far better than most of my foreign currency holdings. I consider this investment to be of very low risk. Strictly as an investment, there is an acceptable risk/reward ratio for me and I committed a small position to it. But I must admit, for the first time last week, I was intrigued by all the events that seemed to point to an imminent RV. I probably moved my own RV meter up a few pegs because I was genuinely disappointed that nothing seemed to come of it. I look back now and realize I probably let the anticipation turn it into an emotional event for me rather than an objective, callous financial event. I nearly doubled my position in this investment last week based on nothing more than rumor fed anticipation. I have vowed to not let that happen again. Lack of discipline is the bain of nearly every unsuccessful investor. Emotion causes people to make foolish decisions. I encourage everyone else to do the same. It is not helpful to look at this as anything other than an investment. It should be constantly evaluated, researched and revewed as an investment based on your own investment objectives and tolerance for risk. I originally made this investment in Septermber, 2010 with a time horizon of up to 1 year. Nothing has caused me to change the time horizon at this point. Right now, if I haven't realized the anticipated return within my time horizon, regardless of the relatively small amount I've invested, I am inclined to sell this investment and move on. Unfortunately, business and financial transactions cannot be conducted in Iraqi dinar outside of Iraq. We can't even earn simple interest on our investment while we wait for the anticipated RV. There are considerable opportunity costs to staying in this investment beyond that point for me.

+1 back at you. Thanks for the kind comments. I'm not trying to be a downer. I know everyone WANTS a high RV (including me) and WANTS it now but that is meaningless. The question I repeatedly ask myself is: "Regardless of what people say and what I want, does it make sense to Iraq?". If it does, they will do it. Unfortunately, I haven't found the answer. I'm no expert in fractional banking and macroeconomics and I don't understand the Arab culture. However, I learned a lot in this process (which is still extremely valuable, regardless of what happens with the dinar) and believe there is a 50% chance that the dinar does not RV at all. That doesn't mean it won't happen. It just means it would not surprise me if no RV occurs at all. It would disappoint me, but not surprise me. I appreciate how easy it is to get excited about the recent developments, but I hope people can temper their expectations.

I'm no trade expert, but I don't think is true. The USD is the world's reserve currency. That means all international trade is settled in dollars. When Iraq sells oil, that oil is priced in and traded for dollars, not dinars. So, in effect, their currency is useless in international trade, regardless of the value. Their currency is useful for transactions within Iraq only (or any other contracts that have been specifically negotiated in dinar). I'm sure the Iraq gov't wants to have a stable and currency so they can attract investment to their country. But they don't need to revalue for that. If they can simply keep a lid on inflation, their currency will be stable and they will attract investment. An exchange ratio of 1170 to 1 doesn't mean the currency is worthless. It just means it takes more single units of 1 currency to buy 1 unit of another currency. In theory, we could do that here. We could price everything in cents instead of dollars. If your grocery bill was priced in cents, it would take many more cents to buy the same amount of food but you would cost you the exact same amount. Does that make sense? (No pun intended) Everybody assumes that an immediate, sudden revaluation has to take place. I'm not so sure. If their gov't is confident about their prospects and stability, they may simply be telling us they expect their currency to revalue steadily over time. It's hard to know. I certainly hope no one is losing sleep waiting for this event that may or may not occur.

Their purchasing power is increased if they lop off zeros. 25 dinars now has the same purchasing power as 25,000 dinars previously had. Likewise, revaluing doesn't increase purchasing power for the native citizens, only for people who plan to redeem dinar for their own currency. If Iraq revalues at 3 x the current value, everything priced in dinar just tripled in price. The newly revalued dinars don't buy any more than they used to. I don't think the Iraqi gov't has any intention of doing this to their own citizens. They certainly care about them more than they care about a bunch of speculators like us. If wealth could be created by simply revaluing, why wouldn't every gov't revalue their currency from time to time? Why wouldn't the US? I'm no currency expert. But I'm desperately trying to make sense of this situation and can't do it any other way.

I don't understand this. How can that possibly be? WE are the speculators. I've seen rates tossed around for months but I've never seen a single explanation or calculation to justify the rate. I know a lot of people WANT a $3 or higher rate but I don't see how that is remotely possible. If 75 trillion dinar have been printed, as claimed, that would require the equivalent of $225 trillion to redeem. I understand that many of these dinar are held by central banks and will not be redeemed. If only 3% of these dinar are held by speculators like us that still would require $6.75 trillion to redeem. That's more than 10 times the current GDP of Iraq. That's half the GDP of the United States! How could Iraq bring 2.25 trillion dinar back into their own country without causing MASSIVE inflation? How could the speculators bring the equivalent of $6.75 trillion back into their countries without causing the same problem? It makes no sense (at least, to me). I think the only way you get close to a $3 rate is if they first lop off 3 zeros (which many people here seemed convinced they won't do). This is still a 200% return which I would be thrilled with. I'm sorry if I seem like a stick in the mud, but my admittedly limited knowledge of macroeconomics just can't make 1+1 = 3000. It seems impossible to me. I honestly think people may double their money on this investment but not get much more. I hope I'm wrong but common sense seems to fly out the door with some of these preduictions.

You are right. And I think, instinctively, people know this. I do fear that there are a lot of people that desperately need this to be true. Desperate people do desperate things, often times. It is completely unrealistic to expect a 3000% return. I don't pretend to understand the world of macroeconomics or fractional banking but I understand common sense. Net wealth is not created or destroyed through currency trading. It is only transferred. And the GOI certainly does not care about the fortunes of a bunch of speculators like us over their constituents. They have no intentions of transferring the great wealth of their country to us. Generally speaking, it's a zero sum game. What seems to me to be the realistic scenario with the dinar is a redenomination of the currency (lopping of zeros) and then a revaluation. I know other people have repeatedly suggested that isn't going to happen. That is their opinion at this point and maybe they're right. It just doesn't make sense to me. I still think the odds of doubling or even tripling my money are pretty good. I'd take that any day of the week. But talk of 3,000%+ returns with a straight revaluation seems nothing but the wishes of many desperate people (and the people that are selling them the dinar). I hope I'm wrong. But I don't think so. Stay tuned. Good luck to everyone!