Pitcher

This is a Daily Chart of the S&P 500. It’s stretched out so you can see the Dec 2018 low ( circled). From a Technical Analysis viewpoint it would not surprise me if we went back and tested that low. That would take months to get down there but it’s possible. There is your 30% retrace and a great big opportunity to reset and buy some great great tech companies for an investment. For the time being let’s see if the 2855-56 low from Friday holds. I’m seriously thinking we could retest that in the next week or so but it could take longer or be shorter on news. This market is very much driven by news now. I’m in no hurry to jump in for a Long Trade. Trading today was no fun. I pushed on my first one, did well on a gold stock, and then shorted for my last play. The market is very volatile and that is pretty common after a big drop. You can see my other support lines on the chart above. if the 2855 support gets breached watch those other lines. Also take a look at the 50 ema. It’s curling down. Watch for the cross of the 100 and then the 200. Listening to a number of the talking heads on TV and some financial podcasts I can’t help but get a little jazzed when I hear them say the Governments of the world will provide the necessary liquidity to get the world economy going again after this Virus runs its course. The question is how long will that take, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years. No one seems to know but when I keep hearing that they will provide liquidity I can’t help but think Dinar RV/RI. I know it’s a stretch but this is the Dinar board and we gotta dream right. The futures are up over 240 on the DJ 30 so maybe I’ll be playing AAPL, Tsla, or Msft. Tomorrow. If we turn down I’ll be watching Gold or TVIX.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Heres-Why-Oil-Prices-Should-Go-Higher.html Here’s Why Oil Prices Should Go Higher By Arthur Berman - Mar 03, 2020, 7:00 PM CST On February 11, I predicted that Coronavirus would crush oil prices. Prices collapsed on February 20. Today, prices have reversed and WTI price is $2.00 higher on expectations of an OPEC+ production cut and central bank stimulus. Rising and falling sentiment about Coronavirus will be the framework for the rest of 2020. As of last Friday, WTI prices had fallen 27% and Brent had fallen 15% since late December. Prices increased on Monday, March 2 but the oil price is being devalued despite today’s gains. Most of this is because of lower demand expectations and disruption of supply chains from Coronavirus (Covid-19). Hope versus reality will be the manic pattern for 2020. The optimistic rebound of price during the week ending February 14 was short-lived and turned to capitulation the following week. WTI price dropped $8.62 and Brent fell $7.98 (Figure 1). Figure 1. Hope versus reality will be the manic pattern for 2020. Brent price rose +1.38 (+2.7%) on March 2 on expectation of OPEC+ cuts & bank stimulus but price fell -$8.79 (-15%) after February 20. Source: Quandl and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. On March 2, Brent price rose by $1.38 (2.7%) on expectation of OPEC+ production cuts and central bank stimulus plans but longer market players aren’t buying false hope. Brent 12-month spreads fell 94% deeper into contango (Figure 2). Related: Are Oil Majors Facing A Terminal Decline? Figure 2. Brent longer market players aren’t buying false hope of production cuts and bank stimulus. Price rose 2.7% on Monday, March 2 but 12-month spreads fell $0.18 (-94%) to -$0.37. Source: Quandl and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Markets seem to be reflecting two contrasting themes . Collapsing prices are recovering based on hope but spreads are more faithfully reflecting market fundamentals namely, that demand destruction cannot be fixed with bandaids. The worst effects of the Coronavirus on oil markets persist although may not be quite as serious as originally thought in early February. As consensus builds toward Coronavirus apocalypse, short-term oil traders can easily find counter-parties to take the other side of a bet that prices will probably improve over the term of a contract. This pushes prompt contract prices down. Meanwhile, longer-term players may be able to see their way clear to an upturn in prices later in 2020 or in 2021 but for now, they recognize that neither OPEC+ nor central bankers can make the economic effects of Coronavirus magically disappear. While the news about Coronavirus and its effect on oil markets is bad, there are some hopeful elements that may explain how markets are reacting now. Figure 3 shows that the number of cases in China appears to be leveling off and that people who have recovered is increasing. The scale of the chart under-states the expansion of cases outside of China. Still, the data suggests that fears of an apocalyptic pandemic may be exaggerated. Figure 3. COVID-19 cases and recoveries. Source: Johns Hopkins and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. At the same time, Chinese data is suspect and confirmed cases are rising quickly outside China. Some people are returning to work in China but baseball stadiums are empty in Japan and Italy is looking a lot like the China of two weeks ago with quarantines and growing concerns. Related: Putin Hints Russia May Participate In Newest Round Of OPEC Cuts Negative world demand growth is likely for 2020 (Figure 4). This optimistically assumes that only demand from China is affected and that a decrease of 200 million barrels for the first quarter is followed by recovery in the rest of 2020. Figure 4. Negative world liquids demand growth is possible in 2020 (-0.3 mmb/d): -2.2 mmb/d in the first quarter of 2020 and -0.3 in the second quarter followed by weak but positive demand growth in the second half of 2020. Source: OPEC, EIA, Vitol and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. That would result in the first quarter of negative demand growth since the 2008 Financial Collapse and the first year of negative demand growth since 2009. The “knock-on” effects of broken supply chains and demand destruction outside of China would result in an even more pessimistic, if more probable, forecast. In either case, it is unlikely that oil prices will recover substantially from current levels in 2020 or that Coronavirus will become a distant memory. The near term is anyone’s guess at the moment but it is probable that the panic will be worse than the pandemic. I can imagine a scenario in which prices continue to fall from current levels but start to stabilize. Comparative inventory suggests than the current WTI front-month price of about $47 is under-valued by at least $8 per barrel. I don’t believe that sentiment alone is responsible for this. Markets are assuming a substantial inventory build once lower demand begins to affect shipments at least for U.S. stocks. The price is still under-valued because inventory build will probably be more gradual than price anticipates. I can also imagine a scenario in which panic drags near-term prices into the $30 to $40 range. That would probably not be sustainable for very long. Whatever the short term brings, WTI prices should stabilize in the low- to mid-$50 range sooner than later, and move slowly higher as the emerging effect of Coronavirus on oil markets and the economy becomes clearer. Once this happens, prices will rise and fall on daily news that is either more or less hopeful about the impact of Coronavirus on demand and supply chains. That period of flux may last for 18 months or longer.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Smaller-Than-Expected-Crude-Build-Fuels-Oil-Rally.html Smaller Than Expected Crude Build Fuels Oil Rally By Julianne Geiger - Mar 03, 2020, 3:48 PM CST The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated on Tuesday a smaller than anticipated crude oil inventory build of 1.7 million barrels for the week ending February 28, compared to analyst expectations of a 3.333-million-barrel build in inventory. In the previous week, the API estimated a smaller than expected build in crude oil inventories of 1.3-million barrels, while the EIA’s estimates were more bullish, reporting a smaller build of 500,000 barrels for the week. Oil prices were trading up on Tuesday in the hours leading up to the data release, with the markets bolstered by confidence in OPEC’s ability to band together with Russia to cut production even more oil production in order to stabilize the oil markets. At 11:37 am EST on Tuesday the WTI benchmark was trading up on the day by $0.25 (+0.53%) at $47.00—but still down more than $3 per barrel week on week. The price of a Brent barrel was also trading up on Tuesday, by $0.11 (+0.21%), at $52.01—down by roughly $2.40 week on week. The API this week also reported a draw of 3.9 million barrels of gasoline for week ending February 28, after last week’s 74,000-barrel build. This week’s draw compares to analyst expectations for a 2.095-million- barrel draw for the week. Distillate inventories were down by 1.7 million barrels for the week, compared to last week’s 706,000-barrel draw, while Cushing inventories fell by 1.35 million barrels. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending February 21 held fast at its all-time high of 13.0 million bpd for the third week in a row. At 4:45 pm EDT, WTI was trading at $47.20, while Brent was trading at $51.89.

Yes LB, and it is about time. The world is tired of pouring money into Iraq only to have Iraqi politicians who are sympathetic to Iranian continue to keep it from prospering. Bunch of Thieves.

I am looking for a new reset or 3-5 year opportunity to go Long on some very choice companies in the coming months. I usually go Long after a good 20-30% correction. We haven’t had that in awhile but this time may be different. I look at everything no matter how bad as an opportunity. This Coronavirus is a horrible deal and I don’t for one second overlook the fact that many are suffering,,,but this will pass and there will be opportunity for those that prepare, educate, and are ready to seize the moment when that time comes.

https://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/Story/47320/Chinese-envoy-calls-for-good-atmosphere-for-political-dialogue-in-Iraq Chinese envoy calls for "good atmosphere" for political dialogue in Iraq China's UN envoy on Tuesday called for a "good atmosphere" to be created for political dialogue and national reconciliation in Iraq. Speaking at a Security Council meeting on the unrest-torn country, Zhang Jun, China's permanent representative to the UN, said as the internal political process in Iraq is at an important juncture, the international community should support Iraq in independently managing its own internal affairs and responding to the challenges by playing a constructive role and creating an enabling environment. "We are firmly against interference in Iraq's internal affairs," he said, adding any military action on Iraq's territory must be subject to the consent of thegovernment of the country to avoid Iraq becoming a victim of geo-politics. He said engaging in peaceful and meaningful dialogue toward inclusive reconciliation and harmonious coexistence is in the fundamental interest of the Iraqi people. "We welcome further improvement of relations between the central government of Iraq and the Kurdistan regional government as well as their continuation of communication and dialogue on oil revenue sharing and security arrangements," he said. Moreover, Zhang urged the international community to consolidate the achievements in counterterrorism and safeguarding national security, noting Iraq has made great sacrifice for the international cause of counterterrorism. He warned that the threat of remnant forces of terrorism still remains and the disposal of foreign terrorist fighters and their families is in urgent need of support from more parties. In this regard, he called on international community to fully respect Iraq's sovereignty and jurisdiction, and support Iraq in bringing terrorists to justice and in preventing the return and spread of terrorist forces and activities.

Iran's nuclear stockpile now five times over nuclear deal limit FacebookTwitterEmailWhatsApp The UN watchdog admonished Tehran on Tuesday for failing to provide access to two undeclared locations or fully answer its questions about pastactivities there. Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium is more than five times the 300 kg limit set by the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, announced the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Tuesday, according to AFP. The Iranian stockpile stood at 1,510 kg as of February 19. Some experts consider this amount enough in order to produce a nuclear weapon, but there are still several steps Iran would need to take before making it suitable for a nuclear weapon. The Islamic Republic has not been enriching uranium above 4.5%, according to the IAEA report. https://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/Story/47327/Iran-s-nuclear-stockpile-now-five-times-over-nuclear-deal-limit

UNAMI chief urges Iraqi leaders to ‘act fast’ for end to political paralysis FacebookTwitterEmailWhatsApp Iraq’s leaders must push past ongoing political crisis for a “more resilient Iraq” to emerge, the United Nations’ top official in Iraq told a briefing of the UN Security Council on Tuesday, amid continuing popular protest and government failure to lock in a new prime minister. “Out of the ongoing political crisis - a fairer, stronger and inherently more resilient Iraq can emerge...for this to materialize, political leaders will have to act fast, and place the country’s interests above everything else,” said Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). Caretaker Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned in November in the face of massprotests in Iraq’s southern and central provinces, demanding the removal of the post-2003 political elite, an overhaul of the political system, and early elections. Little real change has yet been achieved. Since Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation, Iraq’s various political blocs were locked in talks to nominate a suitable candidate to replace him – no easy feat for such a deeply entrenched elite in such a deeply divided society. Political parties at last reached an agreement in early February to nominate Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi as Abdul-Mahdi’s successor. Allawi was given a free hand by Shiite parties to choose an independent cabinet on the condition that Kurds and Sunnis grant him the same freedom. His insistence to appoint candidates himself, however, caused tensions with Kurdish representatives. Allawi submitted his resignation following his inability to secure parliamentary approval to form a cabinet on Sunday. Political parties are once again in talks to nominate a new candidate for appointment by Iraqi President Barham Salih. The premier designate will be charged with forming the next governmental cabinet. “The ongoing political indecisiveness and dissension, leading to a further paralysis in decision-making, unfortunately do not give cause for immediate optimism. The country and its people continue to be pushed into the unknown,” Hennis-Plasschaert said. https://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/Story/47328/UNAMI-chief-urges-Iraqi-leaders-to-act-fast-for-end-to-political-paralysisQ

Thank you The Southern Man. I enjoy trading, it’s never easy but I finally developed my disciplines so it’s a bit easier.

Thanks for your opinion Synopsis

Thank you boosterbglee. I hope the info helps some. Novice, my head does hurt sometimes watching all those monitors. I take lots of 5-10 min eye breaks. Today, I bailed by 11:00 am ct. I just didn’t like the action

I only made one trade today. Played KL for a decent gain. Siting here watching the volatility. I have certain patterns that I look for in a day trade. If I don’t see them I don’t trade. It took me awhile today but I got my play. If you look at a Daily of the S&P it was pretty much expected to see a drop after that big gain yesterday. The surprise today was the Fed announcement but that was pretty much already baked into the equation after it was telegraphed on Friday. If you are a long term holder try not to worry too much. The Fed stated that they will provide low interest rates and liquidity to the markets to ease the problems to the economy caused by the CV. What we have in the market now is a bunch of NOISE, rubbish, a rebalancing of portfolios and a trying to figure it out phase. Granted last weeks drop was very dramatic and historical but again not too unexpected to me after a meteoric rise the last 4 months. I’m watching for a retest of Friday’s lows and then for a possible retest of the Low in Dec of 2018 at some point. I’m not saying we will go to the 2018 lows, I’m saying that low was never retested and it’s a possibility from a Technical viewpoint. In in the meantime we will continue to see a volatile market as it reacts to each item of news that comes out, which is great for traders but instills fear in the general public who don’t want to see their 401k’s chopped up. Remember what I said last week. The 50 ema has not crossed the 200 ema yet. If you are a long term holder you should not fret over a 8-12% drop, especially since the markets were up so much last year. What you will will want to see today is the Price of the S&P hold that 200 ma. Also take a look at the RSI at the top of the page. It’s low but not as much as after Friday’s and yesterday’s pop. Below the chat you can see we are low on the MACD. Watch for the dark line to cross up the red line for a better oppo to buy this sale in stocks. Don’t be in any hurry. We have a tough few months with this Virus and it’s going to hurt business, it already is in the oil and hospitality sectors. I’ll give you my thoughts as we go through all this, but as I stated before, I’m giving this info as my opinion. Always do your own Due Diligence and consult your financial guy if you get worried. I hope I’m providing you with some information that will ease your fears. Education is always the way to a better understanding. Unfortunately the financial guys profit off the fear they help create. The market is and will always have it’s bad actors who try to manipulate it for their own gain.

People pouring into gold and silver. KL, Aem, Nem, Paas, Fnv, Slv, Gold, Basic Metals is the top Sector today so far.

Here is my thought. THE FED CANNOT CURE THE Coronavirus. All the Central Banks need to coordinate if they are trying to soften the coming drop in business from the Corona. Adding liquidity to the markets will help some but it won’t help the supply chain. The message that needs to be addressed and I’m sure it will, is that the Fed, the other Central Banks, and Governments will do whatever it takes to get a recovery going once the virus runs its course. The market is now green. Volatility as people try to figure out how to take this news and what it means.

Geez, I was in a short and got out ASAP. Sitting here watching now waiting for the dust to settle. I think this makes me feel a slow down in business from the Corona crisis is going to be worse than previous thought. It makes me more anxious. Obvious the market is nervous as well. The market is now down.

Fed greases the wheel, . 50 cut. Providing liquidity. Market does a complete turnaround in minutes.

FDA vows to test one million people by end of next week as death toll hits six, more than 100 cases are confirmed across 12 states - and at least a quarter of these were transmitted through communities NOT travel The coronavirus death toll in the US rose to six on Monday and there are now more than 100 confirmed cases across 12 states Roughly a quarter of the cases in the US have likely been transmitted through local communities and are not travel-related, according to health officials Despite this, the first cases detected in both Georgia and New Hampshire on Monday have been linked to travel in Italy Five of the six deaths - all of which occurred in Washington state - have been linked to a Seattle senior living facility State and local authorities have been stepping up testing for the illness following a debacle with faulty kits from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Officials expect more than one million people to be tested within the next week Health officials believe a quarter of the current coronavirus cases in the United States were transferred through US communities rather than travel and have vowed to test a million people by the end of the week. An increase in testing for the coronavirus began shedding light on Monday on how the illness has spread in the United States with the death toll rising to six and newly confirmed cases pushing the tally to more than 100 across 12 states. Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he expects community-related cases to grow in the coming weeks. 'My concern is as the next week or two or three go by, we're going to see a lot more community-related cases,' he said. 'That's of great concern.' Read full article below link https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8069437/Six-dead-coronavirus-cases-hit-100.html

OPEC+ Could Cut Up To 2.7 Million Bpd OPEC could agree further oil production cuts at its meeting in Vienna this week, even if Russia decides not to join them, unnamed sources in the know told Reuters. In February, OPEC proposed further cuts of 600,000 bpd to make up for demand loss amid the coronavirus outbreak, but Russia was reluctant to agree, noting there was no guarantee the deeper cuts would stimulate demand for oil, therefore pushing prices up. Now, the cartel is talking about even deeper cuts, of up to 1 million bpd. It would put the total reduction at 2.7 million bpd, and this is not including the decimated Libyan oil output, currently at a little over 120,000 bpd, down from over 1.2 million bpd at the start of the year. “Saudi Arabia wants to hold prices from falling, but Russia is still not agreeing. So the only way might be for OPEC to cut alone, which will not send a good signal to the market,” one source said, while another added, “There should be a cut, there is no other option.” If Russia decides to sit this one out, the chances of further cuts improving prices would be slim. However, they would take care of the supply/demand balance at a time when all major energy authorities, including OPEC itself, are revising downward their demand forecasts for the year. The EIA last month cuts its demand outlook by 378,000 bpd, after OPEC cut its own by 230,000 bpd and the IEA revised its demand forecast down by 365,000 bpd. The IEA also expects a dip in demand this quarter, and a sizeable one, at 435,000 bpd. Oil prices, in the meantime, are sliding. On Friday, Brent crude dipped below $50 for a while before rebounding in Asian trade today. At the time of writing, the international benchmark was trading at $51.38, with West Texas Intermediate at $46.13 a barrel, both up by more than 3 percent from Friday.

Coronavirus essential guide: From home hygiene, to schools, food and friends, all the information you need to know to minimise your risk of catching the illness Does handwashing really work? Yes. A new study published by the highly-respected Cochrane Database which summarises and interprets numerous studies says that handwashing cuts the chances of contracting a respiratory illness such as coronavirus by 54 per cent – the best odds of any deterrent. So wash your hands – scrubbing every bit of skin from your wrist downwards – at every opportunity for at least 20 seconds (or for however long it takes to sing Happy Birthday in your head twice). Read the entire article blow https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8067521/Coronavirus-home-hygiene-schools-food-friends-essential-information-need.html

I apologize if my post was interpreted to be directly comparing Corona to Swine. Of course Corona is it’s own beast and extremely contagious and dangerous. From what I have read and heard Corona was indeed brought to China from a Canadian Lab. I don’t know if China weaponized it but it wouldn’t be surprising considering the Chinese Military have talked about doing that to hurt America for years. I’m a Stock Market trader and the timing of this outbreak is extremly suspicious and the way it is being presented to inflict the highest degree of fear and panic is also very disturbing. One of the reasons the market bounced back up today was because of a report that stated that the death rate should be much lower than the 3-4% death rate that was first expected by catching the Corona Virus. Three companies that are working on vaccines are Gilead ( success with an HIV drug), Regeneron, and Moderna, stock symbols, Gild, REGN, and MRNA. It will take 8 months to over a year to develop a vaccine from what I’ve read. I agree Kristi D all should be prepared, prepared for business and school closings and so much more. One must be prepared to weather a financial storm and be prepared to hunker down at home which means you must have plenty of food. The hardest part for me is the lack of truthful information, the uncertainty, and exactly what is this horrible pandemic in the making. The CDC even said today that the Virus is so new and they are still learning about it. Wow, very scary indeed. I appreciate your posts Kristi, keep up the great work of keeping us informed.

That’s him 3n1. This is what he looked like in the mid 80’s 😂

Do not be afraid Iraq, it’s past time to pick a PM and support him!! Let me help you. Eerie, meanie miney, mo, Or just throw a cotton picking DART, just watch out for dudes hand.

This is the paragraph I wanted you all to see

I would like to apologize for placing this in the wrong thread. I thought I was putting it in the Corona Virus in America thread. It still sot of works in this thread as well.

I would like to put this Corona Virus into a little perspective compared to the swine flu epidemic of 2009. You can make your own assumptions on the Stock Market Deline of last week, the Media hysteria ( Hollywood Elites and others who want a certain President out of Office) and the Political accusations of the last few weeks compared to what was presented to the public in 2009. From Wikipedia on the Swine Flu Epidemic of 2009 2009 flu pandemic in the United States Further information: 2009 flu pandemic, 2009 flu pandemic by country, and 2009 flu pandemic in the United States by state The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as "swine flu", that began in the spring of 2009. The virus had spread to the US from an outbreak in Mexico.[116] As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.[117] HistoryEdit The earliest reported cases in the US began appearing in late March 2009, in California,[118][119]then spread to infect people in Texas, New York, and assorted other states by mid-April. This spread continued across the country's population and by the end of May had infected citizens in all 50 states. The pattern continued through June of the same year. The total number of confirmed cases varied from 27,717[120] (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed and probable cases) and 25,453 (total of all state confirmed cases) as of June 26, 2009. Towards the middle of June 2009, the number of US cases surpassed those of Mexico, which had been the previous leader in diagnosed cases of the disease. Toward the end of June 2009, the number of deaths related to the virus in the US surpassed those of all other countries as well. On June 25, the CDC released information revealing that there were more than likely over one million (1,000,000) cases of the disease in the US, most of which had not been reported or diagnosed.[121][122] Deaths relating to this new strain of influenza began appearing in the US in late April, and by early June 15, states had reported fatalities related to or directly occurring from the virus. These deaths totaled at 4,000 as of November 15, 2009. The CDC distributed a vaccine for the novel flu strain.[123] using mechanisms already in place for its Vaccines for Children (VFC) program.[124] On October 24, 2009, President Barack Obama declared Swine Flu a national emergency in the United States. On November 12, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 22 million Americans had been infected with 2009 A H1N1 and 4,000 Americans have died.[125] On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans or 1 in 6 people had been infected with the 2009 A H1N1 Virus and 10,000 American had died, by which time the vaccine was beginning to be widely distributed to the general public by several states.[126] On December 23, 2009 the CDC reported a reduction of the disease by 59% percent and the disease was expected to end in the United States in January 2010. On January 15, 2010, the CDC released new estimate figures for swine flu, saying it has sickened about 55 million Americans and killed about 11,160 from April through mid-December.[127] On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January.[128] Initial casesEdit The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identified the first two A/09(H1N1) swine flu cases in California on April 17, 2009, via the Border Infectious Disease Program,[129] for the San Diego County child, and a naval research facility studying a special diagnostic test, where influenza sample from the child from Imperial County was tested.[130] By April 21, enhanced surveillance was established to search for additional cases in both California and Texas and the CDC determined that the virus strain was genetically similar to the previously known A(H1N1) swine flu circulating among pigs in the United States since about 1999. It was established that the virus was a combination of human, North American swine, and Eurasian swine influenza viruses; the viruses from the initial two Californian cases were also noted to be resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, two common influenza antiviral drugs.[131] No contact with pigs was found for any of the seven Californian nor either of the two Texas cases, suggesting human-to-human transmission of the virus. On April 28, 2009, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first official US death of swine flu. Tests confirmed that a 23-month-old toddler from Mexico, who was probably infected there, died on April 27 from the flu while visiting Texas.[132] Outbreak across the USEdit Learn more This section needs expansion. CDC report for the 2008-2009 flu season week 18 (May 17), subtypes and percent positive tests Cases of H1N1 spread rapidly across the United States, with particularly severe outbreaks in Texas, New York, Utah, and California. Early cases were associated with recent travel to Mexico; many were students who had traveled to Mexico for Spring Break.[133] On May 4, 2009, the CDC reported one death, 286 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu across 36 states, 35 hospitalizations, and expects H1N1 to eventually spread to all states. A large number of cases, according to medics, have happened in the days that preceded the launch of the alert and came out only in these days due to a massive backlog.[134] By May 5, 2009, the number had risen to 403[120] and a second death was reported in Texas.[135] The CDC and government officials had expressed cautious optimism about the severity and spread of H1N1.[136][137] Changes in surveillance of cases of influenza-like illness, including new guidelines for identifying cases to test, increased laboratory testing, and new test kits able to distinguish this novel strain, resulted in a spike in the percent of cases tested positive for influenza. Of the positive cases, about a third were due to the novel strain. Also found were a substantial number of cases where the strain could not be subtyped.[138] Pneumonia and influenza deaths in 122 US cities, 5 years through October 2009 The proportion of US deaths due to pneumonia and influenza climbed above the epidemic threshold in the 2007–2008 winter flu season but not in the 2008–2009 season. Although the 2009 H1N1 outbreak reached epidemic levels of infection early in 2009, it did not contribute to epidemic levels of pneumonia and influenza related deaths until October 2009. 2009 US Swine Flu Summary Number of Confirmed Cases/Deaths See Table Above Number of States/Territories with Reported Cases 56 Number of States/Territories with Confirmed Deaths 55 Earliest Confirmed Infection in US March 28, 2009[139] First Death Inside the US April 27, 2009[132] First Death of US Citizen May 5, 2009[140] Number of People Hospitalized 9,079 (as of September 3)[141] Fatalities 593 (as of September 3)[141] The second waveEdit Learn more This section needs expansion. Learn more This section's factual accuracy may be compromised due to out-of-date information. In early October 2009, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that swine flu was widespread across the country. It also said there was significant flu activity in virtually all states, which was considered to be quite unusual for this time of year. There was particular worry about pregnant women. As of late August, 100 had been hospitalized in intensive care units and 28 had died since the beginning of the outbreak in April. On October 1, it was acknowledged that a recruit in basic training in Fort Jackson, South Carolina, was the Army's first swine flu death. The recruit fell ill on September 1 and died of pneumonia on September 10. Dell Children's Medical Center in Austin, Texas, erected two tents in its parking lot to handle emergency room visits, and hospitals around Colorado Springs recorded a 30 percent spike in flu visits. As pediatric cases were increasing, the Dept. of Health and Human Services released 300,000 courses of children's liquid Tamiflu from the national pandemic stockpile in late September, with the first batches sent to Texas and Colorado. In late September, the disease centers reported that 936 had died of flu symptoms or of flu-associated pneumonia since August 30, when it began a new count of deaths, including some without laboratory-confirmed swine flu.[142] The Agriculture Department reported on October 16 that three pigs at the Minnesota State Fair, in St. Paul, were tested positive in late August for H1N1 virus, which were the first cases in the country, although infected pigs had been found in eight other countries. There were 103 pigs tested at the Fair, including the three infected, though all appeared healthy. Scientists said the virus was already spreading widely among people, and, in fact, was more common in humans than in pigs, so humans were more likely to catch it from others than from pigs.[143] In mid-October, it was reported that flu caused by the H1N1 virus was widespread in 41 states, and flu-like illnesses accounted for 6.1 percent of all doctor visits, which was considered high[citation needed], particularly for October. Forty-three children had died from H1N1 since August 30, which is approximately the number that usually dies in an entire flu season. Nineteen of the forty-three were teenagers while sixteen were between ages five to eleven. The rest were under five.[citation needed] It is reported that the severity of the disease was not increasing. About fifteen to twenty percent of the patients hospitalized for the flu were placed in the intensive care unit, a level similar to that for seasonal flu.[citation needed] High-risk groups line up at a defunct Kmart on October 24, 2009 for the first H1N1 vaccines publicly available in Boise, Idaho. Projections of the supply of H1N1 vaccine had decreased significantly from a level of 120 million doses ready in October, estimated during the summer, to an estimate of 28 to 30 million doses by the end of the month. On October 14, 11.4 million doses of the H1N1 vaccine were said to be available. As of November 20, 2009, the CDC reported sharp declines in H1N1 activity throughout the United States, with influenza-like illness (which may also include meningitis, pneumonia, strep pharyngitis, gastroenteritis, and the common cold) accounting for 5.5% of doctors visits, down sharply from 8% in late October, the peak of the second wave. However, taking the vaccine is still urged by the CDC, as a third wave of the disease may sweep across the US, possibly in January/February 2010.[144] as of December 24, the second wave of H1N1 has clearly peaked, with pneumonia and influenza deaths falling below the epidemic threshold for the first time in 11 weeks, and the proportion of doctors visits do to influenza-like illness falling to baseline (2.3%), down from 5.5% 1 month before, on November 20.however, it was reported that influenza activity was beginning to increase in West Virginia, with 5.2% of patients treated by West Virginia health care providers having influenza-like illness, a major increase from 2% of patients treated by West Virginia health care providers having influenza-like illness in November. Flu strain severityEdit Influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported to CDC, from 2005–06 to start of 2009–2010 The new strain was identified as a combination of several different strains of Influenzavirus A, subtype H1N1, including separate strains of this subtype circulating in humans (see human influenza) and in pigs (see swine influenza). The strain transmits between humans and was initially reported to have a relatively high mortality rate in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have expressed serious concerns that the new strain has the potential to become an influenza pandemic.[145]It is reported that, because the virus is already widespread, containment will be impossible.[146] In addition, the flu death toll in Mexico could be lower than first thought, Gerald Evans, head of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada and a member of a federal pandemic-planning committee, said on April 29:[147] Moreover, another Canadian expert, Neil Rau, criticized the WHO's decision to raise its Pandemic alert to level 5, saying:[148] CNN stated on April 28, 2009 that there were at least 800 deaths in the U.S. due to normal influenza in each individual week between January 1 and April 18, which is higher than the combined worldwide death toll for the swine flu.[149] As of November 19, 2009, the official death toll attributed directly to the novel H1N1 and seasonal influenza was 877.[150] This total exceeds the 849 deaths directly attributed to seasonal influenza in 2006.[151] Many of the other deaths commonly attributed to influenza are caused by complicated influenza, where a second infection causes death, usually pneumonia (of which 48,657 of 55,477 official deaths in 2006 occurred in people aged 65 years and older)[151][152] ResponseEdit Congruent U.S. Government and WHO Pandemic Response Charts. The Federal response remains at US Pandemic Stage 0, congruent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Pandemic Phases 1, 2 and 3;[153][154] however, the WHO's Pandemic Phase was raised to 4 on April 27, which is congruent with US Pandemic Stage 2.[155] On April 29, the WHO raised the pandemic alert level to phase 5.[156] The United States federal government declared a public health emergency, and several U.S. states have indicated they may follow suit. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitanonoted that this declaration was standard operating procedure, which was also done for the 2009 presidential inauguration and for flooding.[157] After many days of deliberation the WHO declared that the current influenza had become a true pandemic, raising the Pandemic Alert level to Phase 6, the highest on the WHO scale and congruent with U.S. Federal Government Response Stages 3–6.[158] White HouseEdit Barack Obama being vaccinated on Dec. 20, 2009. An official for the White House said on April 24 that "the White House is taking the situation seriously and monitoring for any new developments. The president has been fully briefed."[159] President Barack Obama stated that "We are closely monitoring the emerging cases of swine flu". He also noted, "This is obviously a cause for concern ... but it is not a cause for alarm".[160] President Obama suggested that U.S. schools should consider shutting down, as a future possibility, if their students were to become infected.[161] White House Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs said the effort to get a team in place to respond to the health scare has not been hindered by the lack of a secretary of Health and Human Services or appointees in any of the department's 19 key posts.[162] The president's nominee, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, was still awaiting confirmation from the U.S. Senate until passing on April 28. The President has not yet made appointments to either the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, the Surgeon General, or the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.[162] The current acting Surgeon General, Steven K. Galson, is also currently serving as the Acting Assistant Secretary for Health.[163] Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius in a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House regarding the H1N1 virus. On April 30, it was reported that an aide to Steven Chu, the US Energy Secretary, had fallen ill from the virus after helping arrange President Barack Obama's trip to Mexico.[164] However, the White House stated that the President is not at risk of obtaining the flu.[164]Kathleen Sebelius was confirmed as the Secretary of Health and Human Services by the Senate on April 28, 2009 with a vote of 65–31.[165][166] Wikinews has related news: Obama declares swine flu emergency in US On October 24, President Obama declared the 2009 H1N1 swine flu a national emergency.[167] The declaration will make it easier for U.S. medical facilities to handle a surge in flu patients by allowing the waiver of some requirements of Medicare, Medicaid and other federal health insurance programs as needed. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Edit Play media In this video, Joe Bresee, with CDC's Influenza Division, describes the symptoms of swine flu and warning signs to look for that indicate the need for urgent medical attention. See also: See this video with subtitles in YouTube Activation of Emergency Operations Center During the week of April 19, the CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC), with RADM Stephen Redd as the Incident Commander, to augment the ongoing investigation of human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1).[168] More than 250 CDC professionals are working from the CDC EOC as part of the agency's response.[169] As of May 4, 2009, the CDC reported that it had deployed 25% of the supplies and medicines in the Strategic National Stockpile to the various states.[170] Swine Flu Test Kits As of April 29, only the CDC could confirm U.S. swine flu cases.[171]Besser stated during an April 30 press briefing that California and New York had diagnostic test kits, and that the kits would be sent to all states starting the following day.[172] On May 6, the CDC announced that testing kits were now available for all states. This is expected to generate an increase in the number of confirmed cases as more states begin doing their own tests.[173] Influenza Reporting Requirements In the United States, the majority of the 70 National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) laboratories do not report the influenza A subtype. However, in 2007, human infection with a novel influenzavirus A became a nationally notifiable condition. Novel influenza A virus infections include all human infections with influenza A viruses that are different from currently circulating human influenza H1 and H3 viruses. These viruses include those that are subtyped as nonhuman in origin and those that are unsubtypable with standard methods and reagents.[174] The new strain responsible for this outbreak was one such virus. CDC Recommendations for Schools Initially the CDC had issued a recommendation that schools close for as long as two weeks if a student catches swine flu.[175] Some school districts closed all schools if a single child was classified as probable.[133] On May 5 the CDC retracted its advice stating that schools that were closed based on previous CDC guidance related to this outbreak may reopen.[176] By that time at least 726 schools nationwide serving more than 480,000 students had closed for at least some period of time.[175] The CDC amended its advice citing, new information on disease severity and the limiting effectiveness of school closure as a control measure.[176] The new advice given stated, "Decisions about school closure should be at the discretion of local authorities based on local considerations, including public concern and the impact of school absenteeism and staffing shortages."[176] Food and Drug AdministrationEdit The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized emergency use of medicines and diagnostic tests for flu. (FDA is part of Department of Health and Human Services.)[177] The FDA stated it is also responding to this threat by: working with other government agencies and manufacturers on a series of issues related to antiviral medications. growing the 2009 H1N1 flu virus and preparing to make vaccine seed lots, which may be used eventually to produce a safe and effective vaccine. helping to prepare reagents needed for vaccine production and coordinating closely with other public health agencies for clinical development and testing. accelerating access to new diagnostic tools for this 2009 H1N1 flu virus[178] On May 6, 2009, the FDA announced that it had approved a new manufacturing facility for seasonal flu vaccine, owned by Sanofi Pasteur, which could also be used for manufacturing a vaccine for the new H1N1 flu strain.[179] The FDA also issued a warning for consumers to be wary of products claiming to cure or prevent swine flu.[180] 0 deaths 1+ deaths 5+ deaths 20+ deaths Other federal agenciesEdit Department of Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano stated that DHS is the principal federal office for incidents such as the current H1N1 flu outbreak, and "Under that role, we have been leading a true collaborative effort."[181] The Department of Homeland Security has a document, dated November 1, 2005, entitled "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza", detailing planning for potential pandemics. https://web.archive.org/web/20090507013213/http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/federal/pandemic-influenza.pdf State Department The State Department suggested travelers to Mexico stay alert and comply with guidance from Mexican public health officials, but did not impose any travel restrictions on US citizens to Mexico.[182] However, the State Department did recommend US citizens avoid non-essential travel to Mexico.[183] Department of Agriculture The Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported no swine in the US have been infected so far, but the USDA is monitoring swine across the US for signs of infection.[184] Department of Commerce The Department of Commerce sent a letter to Russia and China requesting that those countries lift their ban on American pork products.[185] Department of Defense The Department of Defense (DOD) is monitoring the swine flu situation and has contingency plans to deal with such outbreaks.[186] As of May 7, 2009, the DOD reports 104 confirmed cases among Armed Forces personnel and their families. DOD maintains a daily summary and map.[187] Department of Education The Department of Education is providing guidance to schools in the US affected by swine flu, as well as precautions to take.[188] State and localEdit Schools closed in many states in response to local flu outbreaks. By April 30, 2009, 300 U.S. schools and school districts had announced closures in response to the outbreak, giving 169,000 students time off.[189] On May 4, 2009, about 533 schools in 24 states in the U.S. were closed, affecting about 330,000 students.[190] On September 25, 2009, 42 schools were closed in eight states as the second wave of the pandemic began.[191] On May 5, Kathleen Sebelius stated in a CDC news conference that school closures for single confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza were unnecessary, but that parents keep their child home if he or she displays an influenza-like illness.[192] Travel industryEdit Several US airlines waived fees for cancellations and flight changes.[193] At least one cruise line changed itinerary to avoid Mexican ports of call.[194] SummaryEdit [citation needed] 2009 A(H1N1) Outbreak and pandemic milestones 28 March First case in the US of what would later be identified as swine flu origin. 21 April First case confirmed in California. 23 April First case confirmed in Texas. 25 April First case confirmed in Kansas. Community outbreaks confirmed in the United States. 26 April First case confirmed in New York. First case confirmed in Ohio. 28 April First case confirmed in Indiana. 29 April First non-US citizen death confirmed in Texas. First case confirmed in Nevada. First case confirmed in Arizona. First case confirmed in Maine. First case confirmed in Massachusetts. First case confirmed in Michigan. 30 April First case confirmed in Nebraska. First case confirmed in South Carolina. First case confirmed in Minnesota. First case confirmed in Colorado. First case confirmed in Virginia. First case confirmed in Kentucky. First case confirmed in New Jersey. 1 May First case confirmed in Florida. First case confirmed in Missouri. First case confirmed in Connecticut. First case confirmed in Delaware. 2 May First case confirmed in New Mexico. First case confirmed in Utah. First case confirmed in New Hampshire. First case confirmed in Rhode Island. First case confirmed in Iowa. First case confirmed in Wisconsin. First case confirmed in Alabama. 3 May First case confirmed in Idaho. First case confirmed in Pennsylvania. First case confirmed in Louisiana. First case confirmed in North Carolina. First case confirmed in Tennessee. 4 May First case confirmed in Oregon. First case confirmed in Georgia. First case confirmed in Maryland. 5 May First case confirmed in Washington. First case confirmed in Oklahoma. First case confirmed in Hawaii. First US citizen death confirmed in Texas. 6 May First case confirmed in District of Columbia. 7 May First case confirmed in South Dakota. 8 May First case confirmed in Vermont. First case confirmed in Arkansas. 9 May First death confirmed in Washington. 11 May First case confirmed in Montana. 13 May First case confirmed in North Dakota. 14 May First death confirmed in Arizona. 15 May First case confirmed in Mississippi. 17 May First death confirmed in New York. 19 May First death confirmed in Missouri. 20 May First death confirmed in Utah. 25 May First death confirmed in Illinois. 26 May First case confirmed in Puerto Rico. 27 May First case confirmed in Wyoming. First case confirmed in Alaska. 2 June First case confirmed in West Virginia. All 50 states have confirmed H1N1. First death confirmed in Virginia. 3 June First death confirmed in Michigan. First death confirmed in Connecticut. 4 June First death confirmed in California. 5 June First death confirmed in Pennsylvania. First death confirmed in Wisconsin. 8 June First death confirmed in Oregon. First death confirmed in Oklahoma. 15 June First death confirmed in New Jersey. First death confirmed in Massachusetts. First death confirmed in Minnesota. 16 June First death confirmed in Florida. First death confirmed in Rhode Island. First case confirmed in US Virgin Islands. 23 June First death confirmed in Maryland. 24 June First death confirmed in North Carolina. 26 June First case confirmed in American Samoa. 29 June First death confirmed in Hawaii. 1 July First case confirmed in Guam. 6 July First death confirmed in Ohio. First death confirmed in Nevada. 10 July First death confirmed in Indiana. First death confirmed in Georgia. 15 July First death confirmed in Nebraska. First death confirmed in Tennessee. 20 July First death confirmed in Guam. 21 July First case confirmed in Northern Mariana Islands. 27 July First death confirmed in Alaska. 29 July First death confirmed in Alabama. First death confirmed in Colorado. 3 August First death confirmed in Iowa. 6 August First death confirmed in Kansas. First death confirmed in Montana. First death confirmed in Mississippi. 8 August First death confirmed in Arkansas. 10 August First death confirmed in New Mexico. 13 August First death confirmed in Maine. First death confirmed in Louisiana. 14 August First case of Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance confirmed. 17 August First death confirmed in New Hampshire. 19 August First death confirmed in Wyoming. 28 August First death confirmed in South Carolina. 2 September First death confirmed in US Virgin Islands. 3 September First death confirmed in Kentucky. 4 September First death confirmed in West Virginia. 10 September First Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance spread from person to personconfirmed. 28 September First death confirmed in Idaho. 2 October First death confirmed in South Dakota. 22 October First death confirmed in Delaware. 26 October First death confirmed in North Dakota. 28 October First death confirmed in Vermont. All 50 states have confirmed H1N1 deaths. 4 November First feline zoonosis confirmed in Iowa. 19 November First death confirmed in American Samoa. First feline death confirmed in Oregon. 24 November First double infection case confirmed in West Virginia. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States