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behaviorkat

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  4. IMF Predicts Slower U.S. Growth on Debt Concerns, Confidence

    in Investment Opportunities and Wealth Management

    Posted

    IMF Predicts Slower U.S. Growth on Debt Concerns, Confidence

    By Timothy R. Homan

    Click 'Queue' to read later

    The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. growth this year and in 2012, citing unresolved debt-reduction concerns and waning confidence among consumers and businesses.

    The world’s largest economy will expand 1.5 percent this year, down from the 2.5 percent projected in June, the Washington-based lender said today in its World Economic Outlook report. Unemployment will average 9 percent or higher through next year, the IMF said.

    Declining sentiment among Americans and a stagnant labor market threaten household spending, the biggest part of the U.S. economy. The pace of job growth puts pressure on President Barack Obama, lawmakers and the Federal Reserve to take steps to increase payrolls.

    “Bold political commitment to put in place a medium-term debt reduction plan is imperative to avoid a sudden collapse of market confidence that could seriously disrupt global stability,” the IMF said in the report. “Downside risks weigh on the outlook given fiscal uncertainty, weakness in the housing market and household finances, renewed financial stress, and subdued consumer and business sentiment.”

    Obama yesterday called for $1.5 trillion in tax increases over the next decade to help trim the deficit, saying U.S. prosperity depends on paying down the federal debt.

    Spending Cuts

    In combination with cuts in spending, Obama said, his plan would reduce the long-term deficit by $3 trillion beyond the $1 trillion that was agreed to as part of a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The additional taxes largely would fall on the wealthiest Americans, drawing criticism from Republican lawmakers who are opposed to raising taxes.

    “The first priority for the U.S. authorities is to commit to a credible fiscal policy agenda that places public debt on a sustainable track over the medium term, while supporting the near-term recovery,” the IMF said. “The fiscal consolidation plan should be based on realistic macroeconomic assumptions and should comprise entitlement reform and revenue-raising measures.”

    The fund suggested measures such as gradually closing loopholes and overhauling tax deductions.

    The jobless rate in the U.S. will average 9.1 percent this year and 9 percent in 2012, the IMF said in the report. Unemployment was 9.1 percent in August, according to U.S. Labor Department data.

    Also weighing on the recovery is the housing market, which precipitated the recession that began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. The IMF said the industry may take longer to stabilize as home-price declines persist.

    ‘Loss of Confidence’

    “There’s just a risk that if there’s a shock and a loss of confidence then the economy could enter a very mild recession,” said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC. “So far, consumers have been very cautious.”

    U.S. consumer confidence held earlier this month at the second-lowest level of 2011 as the most households in three years said it was a bad time to spend. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 49.3 in the period to Sept. 11, near this year’s low of minus 49.4 reached in May. The buying climate gauge slumped to the lowest level since October 2008.

    The U.S. economy will grow 1.8 percent next year, compared with the 2.7 percent forecast issued three months ago, according to today’s IMF report. GDP will expand 1.6 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2012, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sept. 2 to Sept. 7.

    U.S. consumer prices will climb 3 percent this year before rising 1.2 percent in 2012, according to the IMF report. The cost of living in the U.S. increased 3.8 percent in the 12 months through August, according to the Labor Department in Washington.

    The economy may improve during the second half of this year, the IMF said, if “financial stability and consumer and business confidence are restored sooner than anticipated.”

    To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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    IMF Cuts Global Growth Estimate, Says Europe Debt Woes May Worsen Outlook

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-20/imf-predicts-slower-u-s-growth-on-debt-concerns-confidence?category=%2Fnews%2Fmostread%2F

    Lets hope the economy improves yet this year..... humm! :)

  5. IMF downgrades outlook for US and Europe economies

    in Investment Opportunities and Wealth Management

    Posted

    Sep. 20, 2011 10:02 AM ET

    IMF downgrades outlook for US and Europe economies

    CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABERCHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer

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    Sep. 19, 2011 2:45 PM ET

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    Sep. 19, 2011 2:33 PM ET

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    Sep. 19, 2011 11:50 AM ET

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The world economy has entered a "dangerous new phase," according to the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. As a result, the international lending organization has sharply downgraded its economic outlook for the United States and Europe through the end of next year.

    The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow just 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012. That's down from its June forecast of 2.5 percent in 2011 and 2.7 percent next year.

    To achieve even that still-low level of growth, the U.S. economy would need to expand at a much faster rate in the second half of the year than its 0.7 percent annual pace in the first six months.

    Most economists expect growth of between 1.5 percent and 2 percent in the final two quarters. Though an improvement, it wouldn't be enough to lower the unemployment rate. The rate has been 9 percent or higher in all but two months since the recession officially ended more than two years ago.

    "The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase," said Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist. "The recovery has weakened considerably. Strong policies are needed to improve the outlook and reduce the risks."

    The IMF has also lowered its outlook for the 17 countries that use the euro. It predicts 1.6 percent growth this year and 1.1 percent next year, down from its June projections of 2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

    The gloomier forecast for Europe is based on worries that euro nations won't be able to contain their debt crisis and keep it from destabilizing the region.

    "Markets have clearly become more skeptical about the ability of many countries to stabilize their public debt," Blanchard said. "Fear of the unknown is high."

    Overall, the IMF predicts global growth of 4 percent for both years. Stronger growth in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries should offset weaker output in the United States and Europe.

    Financial turmoil and slow growth are feeding on each other in both the United States and Europe, IMF officials say. Europe's debt crisis is causing banks to reduce lending and hold onto cash. Sharp stock market drops in the United States over the summer have hurt consumer and business confidence and will likely reduce spending. That slows growth, which leads many investors to shift money out of stocks and into safer investments, such as Treasury bonds.

    In Europe, slower growth will make it harder for stressed nations to get their debt under control.

    U.S. and European policymakers need to act more decisively to cut budget deficits, the IMF said. And European officials need to ensure that the region's banks have enough capital to withstand the debt crisis.

    The IMF said in its report that the U.S. economy faces longer-lasting problems that go beyond high gas prices and disruptions caused by the Japan crisis.

    Employers are adding few jobs and giving out meager pay raises. Many homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Banks are keeping credit tight.

    All those trends are holding back consumer spending. Unemployment is likely to average 9 percent next year, the IMF's report said, echoing a recent estimate by the Obama administration.

    President Barack Obama's proposal to cut taxes and spend more on infrastructure should provide much-needed short-term stimulus, the IMF said. But it needs to be paired with a longer-term plan to reduce the deficit over, the report said. The timing of the budget cuts is key, Blanchard said.

    Budget cuts "cannot be too fast or it will kill growth," Blanchard said in a statement. "It cannot be too slow or it will kill credibility."

    President Obama on Monday proposed more than $3 trillion of tax increases and spending cuts over 10 years. His proposal will be considered by a congressional panel charged with finding $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction this year.

    Both Obama's jobs proposal and the tax increases face stiff opposition from Republicans. They oppose any tax increases and have strongly criticized the president's plans.

    The 187-member nation fund conducts economic analysis and lends money to countries in financial distress. It will hold its annual meetings with the World Bank later this week in Washington.

    Associated Press

    Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    News Topics: Economy, Financial crisis, National budgets, Development banking, Government spending, Business, Government budgets, Government finance, Government business and finance, Government and politics, Financial markets, National governments, Banking and credit, Financial services, Industries, Fiscal policy, Economic policy, Government policy, Economic outlook, Government budget deficits

    People, Places and Companies: Olivier Blanchard, Barack Obama, Europe, United States

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    http://hosted2.ap.org/OHCAN/CREPnewswire/Article_2011-09-20-IMF-Economic%20Outlook/id-574acdf666ea441d8926eb411d0f9199

  6. IMF statement regarding global economies

    in Investment Opportunities and Wealth Management

    Posted

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/uk-imf-idUKTRE78J31W20110920

    IMF warns U.S., Europe could slip into recession

    Link this

    Share this0diggsdiggEmailPrintRelated NewsIMF says ECB should cut rates if conditions worsen

    2:57pm BST

    Europe must get its act together - IMF official

    2:57pm BSTRelated TopicsBusiness »

    (Reuters) - Europe and the United States could slip back into recession next year unless they quickly tackle economic problems that could infect the rest of the world, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

    The IMF said financial volatility had increased dramatically as investors worried about an escalating debt crisis in the euro zone and a weakening U.S. recovery.

    Those two regions present the biggest risks to the global economic outlook, it said, warning that political gridlock could block remedial action. The fund also called for a more ambitious plan to lower Japan's public debt.

    "Policy indecision has exacerbated uncertainty and added to financial strains, feeding back into the real economy," the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

    The IMF cut its forecast for global growth to 4.0 percent for this year and next, shaving projections for almost every region of the world and saying risks remained tilted to the downside. Just three months ago it had projected an expansion of 4.3 percent for 2011 and 4.5 percent for 2012.

    The IMF's message to European leaders was they should do whatever it takes to preserve confidence in national policies and the euro, and it urged the European Central Bank to lower interest rates if risks to growth persisted.

    Investors have questioned Europe's ability to come up with a convincing solution to its festering sovereign debt crisis, which has rattled confidence and roiled financial markets.

    On Monday, international lenders told Greece to shrink its public sector and improve tax collection to avoid running out of money within weeks, and Standard and Poor's downgraded its unsolicited ratings on Italy by one notch and kept its outlook on negative -- a move that surprised markets.

    The fund cut its growth forecast for the 17-nation euro zone by nearly half a percentage point to 1.6 percent in 2011 and even weaker conditions are seen for next year with growth of just 1.1 percent. Currently the single currency region is scarcely growing at a 0.25 percent annual rate.

    The IMF cautioned that hasty budget cuts in the United States could further weaken growth, and it said the U.S. Federal Reserve should stand ready to ease monetary policy further. The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    The IMF shaved its forecasts for U.S. growth to 1.5 percent for 2011 and 1.8 percent for 2012, down from June projection of 2.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.

    WEAK AND BUMPY RECOVERY

    Japan's economy was forecast to shrink 0.5 percent this year, not quite as severely as previously thought, but to grow just 2.3 percent in 2012. In June, the IMF said Japan would likely grow 2.9 percent next year.

    Taken together, advanced economies, including the United States, euro zone and Japan, were forecast to expand 1.6 percent this year and 1.9 percent next year. That marks sharp downward revisions from June's 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent projections.

    The outlook, it said, was for a "weak and bumpy expansion"

    The IMF also said prospects for emerging market economies were growing more uncertain, although growth would likely remain fairly strong at about 6.4 percent this year, slowing to 6.1 percent in 2012.

    Signs of overheating still warranted close attention in emerging market economies, it cautioned. In some countries, higher commodity prices and social and political unrest loomed large, it added.

    The fund trimmed its forecasts for China and other emerging Asian economies, in part due to slowing global growth.

    Asian "growth remains strong, although it is moderating with emerging capacity constraints and weaker external demand," the IMF said.

    It said it expects China's economy to grow 9.5 percent in 2011 and 9.0 percent in 2012. That's down from its June forecasts of 9.6 percent this year and 9.5 percent in 2012.

    The IMF said headline and core inflation had been on the rise in many parts of the world until recently. An IMF inflation tracker showed inflation pressures were still relatively elevated in emerging and developing economies. But in major advanced economies, inflation had been losing momentum.

    (Editing by Neil Stempleman)

  7. The ISX Report

    in ISX (Iraqi Stock Exchange)

    Posted

    I did not think it was worth it...... I already have a lot of the information and I cannot locate where it downloaded to my computer files.

    I wanted a hard copy sent via mail - computer versions can become missing, etc.

    I did send them an email and they responded the next day.

  10. Abadi: We are with the deletion of zeros is likely to begin replacement of the currency early in 2012

    in Iraq & Dinar Related News

    Posted

    We will see how this all pans out :)

    Good luck lop talkers..... remember when you talk about a lop you are referring to our money not changing in value that we hold compared to the USD not the prices in IQD that will change in Iraq with the change in IQD currency.

    Do not turn the lop talk around to cover your suggestion that you think it will lop.

    PS I love cats! :)

    This is great news its almost over.

    YES!!!

    Agreed!

    :D:D:D

  11. Abadi: We are with the deletion of zeros is likely to begin replacement of the currency early in 2012

    in Iraq & Dinar Related News

    Posted

    Its talking about replacing the entire currency and doing the same thing that Turkey did, they even mentioned that its a problem about the amount of currency out there in circulation and since they havent been trying to reduce the amount of currency in circulation in other ways like selling bonds and treasuries, they put a plan in front of parliment to RD the currency to reduce the money supply....if they were just removing the larger bills from circulation, and trading them in for an even amount in lower denoms, it still doesnt take care of the inflated money supply.

    '

    I hate to see this as much as the next guy but they are clearly talking about a lop....

    well go back and re-read your loptalk - maybe you need a refresher!

    PS women read these days!

    • Downvote 2

  18. Another Bank than Warka

    in Warka and Iraqi Banking

    Posted

    I have had good service with Warka bank. Email them with all the information need when you make a request. Also, it is a good idea to have electronic dinar to ride the price up. This is the only bank as of yet that allows non-Iraqi investors.

    Also, you can access the ISX and deal with only one system.

    go rv :D

    or wait till I get on the stock exchange ~ that would be ok too!! B)

  25. Adam's Chat of Wed Aug 31

    in Chat Logs

    Posted

    Adam, sorry I missed the chat.. busy with work and family this week.

    Thanks for posting, Paperboy

    I really like the idea of getting more currency info :)

    I am interested in the Yuan (China), and the Won (S. Korea).

    --- maybe the Real (Brazil) too!

    I have some VND :)

    Really good news about the Dinar! B)

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