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  1. Thanks for the find, Vizio. This translation is much better than most of the scrambled words we normally get, but here is the English version directly from Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70H6WO20110118 BlackRock sees oil hitting $120/bbl, stalling economy Tue, Jan 18 2011 By David Sheppard NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices will probably soar to $120 a barrel or higher this year until they cause economic growth to stall, one of the world's most successful natural resources fund managers has warned. Dan Rice, co-head of the $1.5 billion BlackRock Energy and Resources Fund, told Reuters he saw the current pace of global economic growth as unsustainable in a world where energy supplies are increasingly constrained. "I don't think the world can continue to grow at this rate and not go to $120 plus," the BlackRock (BLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) managing director told Reuters in a telephone interview. His fund has averaged annual returns of 18 percent over the last 10 years. "That will put a brake on the economy that will drag global growth back down to 3 percent." Rice, who invests in natural resource equities, said he saw global growth at around 5 percent currently, but thought the world is heading for a period of slower growth as high energy and other raw material costs weigh on the global economy. Rice was managing a total of approximately $7 billion as of Monday across his portfolio of mutual funds, institutional accounts and hedge funds, according to a spokeswoman at BlackRock, the world's largest money manager. Oil demand is set to hit a record 89.1 million barrels per day in 2011, according to the International Energy Agency. While many traders think OPEC has enough spare capacity to stop a spike back toward $150 like in 2008, demand is up more than 4 million bpd since the depths of the recession. Rice said he fears tightening supplies could tip the world economy into a slowdown -- as he believes they did three years ago. "2008 started out as a mild commodity price induced recession, that had slowed (global) growth from 5 percent to 2-3 percent," said Rice, 59, who joined State Street Research & Management in 1984. It merged with BlackRock in 2005. "It only fell below 2 percent after Lehman Brothers collapsed. That put a different spin on things. I know our numbers are in the ballpark for future GDP growth. They're born of 30 years of doing this." He said a long-term price of around $90 is probably the highest the world economy can sustain without a global slowdown. U.S. crude oil and North Sea Brent, the two main global benchmarks, are currently trading around $92 and $98 a barrel respectively, about $13-$19 above the 2010 average as booming emerging markets stoke demand. WHERE RICE IS INVESTING While Rice is concerned about rising commodity prices, he said there was still value to be found for now, with most oil producer shares currently reflecting expectations of a long-term price of just $80 a barrel. "I think (oil producer) stocks will be discounting $100 oil at some point this year and at that point I will be selling," Rice said, In the energy sector, Rice is even more bullish on coal and natural gas producers this year, with crude producers in third place. Rice expects both Central Appalachian coal to trade at $90 a tonne -- with most share prices currently reflecting an average of $70-$75 a tonne, while natural gas is expected to climb as high oil prices encourage fuel switching. "At the moment most stock prices are discounting $70-$75 a tonne, but if it goes to $90 those stock prices will have doubled. If it goes to $100 they will have tripled. I'm happy with doubled." The fund's largest holdings are in coal miners Massey Energy (MEE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Peabody Energy Corp (BTU.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) at 5 and 4 percent respectively, with coal and gas producer CONSOL Energy (CNX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) in third, according to Morningstar. While he remains bullish in the short to medium-term, Rice said he may choose to exit his positions if he sees prices getting back to the heady levels of mid-2008 -- when he, like many others, was burned by the subsequent crash. "If we get to the point where stocks are discounting 5 percent GDP growth, if there are no other places to invest I would move to cash." (Reporting by David Sheppard; Editing by David Gregorio) I pick IQD as my cash of choice to invest in.
  2. Thanks for your contribution, Shadowhawk. Lots of these types of reports coming in. This is big news and it's good to see that it's getting the widespread coverage it deserves.
  3. Reading this online led me to find another article about a Swiss Banker being accused of advising Americans to evade taxes. I posted it in the Tax Discussion thread.
  4. Thanks to lgraham for an earlier post from the Times that led me to find this one. From the New York Times online December 14, 2010 Federal prosecutors on Tuesday accused a former UBS banker of advising wealthy American clients to avoid disclosing their hidden offshore accounts held at a smaller Swiss bank because they were unlikely to attract scrutiny from the United States tax authorities. The United States attorney’s office in Miami accused Renzo Gadola, the head of RG Investment Partners, an investment advisory firm in Zurich, of conspiracy to defraud the United States by helping wealthy Americans evade taxes from 2000 through this month. Mr. Gadola, a Swiss citizen, was employed by UBS from 1995 to 2008, when he left to form RG Investment Partners. He was arrested on Nov. 8 and was to appear in Federal District Court in Miami on Tuesday. Prosecutors also said that an unidentified co-conspirator, who was a former senior UBS private banking executive, had worked as Mr. Gadola’s partner to help wealthy Americans evade taxes through Basler Kantonalbank, a Swiss cantonal bank in Basel. The co-conspirator, a Swiss citizen, oversaw hundreds of American clients. When he left in 2003 to set up an independent investment firm in Switzerland, he took about 150 UBS clients with him, prosecutors said. The accusation, which was filed as a criminal information, underscores how Swiss bank secrecy continues to flourish despite the recent United States crackdown on UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, in connection with offshore private banking services that enabled wealthy Americans to evade taxes. In particular, the charge sheds new light on how Swiss bankers continued to sell tax-evasion services even while American authorities turned up the heat on UBS. The nearly four-year scrutiny of UBS, which ended last month, led many larger Swiss banks to alter or discontinue their offshore services. In the wake of the UBS investigation, the I.R.S. said it was increasing its scrutiny of other banks. According to the criminal information, a wealthy client from Mississippi told the unidentified Swiss banker in September 2009 that he wanted to participate in a voluntary disclosure program from the I.R.S. that allowed taxpayers to come forward and report their secret offshore accounts in exchange for lesser penalties. The client had inherited $400,000 in cash and stored it in a box in Mississippi before putting it in UBS and later Basler Kantonalbank. But the Swiss banker told the client that his Basler account was too small to bother disclosing and that doing so “would bring trouble for both of them.” When the client pressed further, the Swiss banker suggested that he falsify banking records to make the money look like a loan. Last month, Mr. Gadola told the client that he and his partner, the unidentified co-conspirator, had withdrawn the client’s money from Basler and were keeping it in cash in their shared offices. “There is no paper trail,” Mr. Gadola told the client, according to the document. That Mr. Gadola was charged in a criminal information and not indicted suggests that he may be cooperating with American investigators.
  5. Sounds all warm and fuzzy right now. Just wait until they actually get down to trying to run the country and Allawi lays his first veto on the table. Thanks, k98nights.
  6. Ooooo. Wouldn't it be interesting to watch if the women dared to form their own block? Thanks, k98nights.
  7. Great find, lgraham. Thanks. How do you think the banking cartels and the proponents of the dreaded "one world currency" are looking at this?
  8. Thanks, Ron. Yes, it sounds like they are getting the details worked out. Still, it doesn't mean that, once enacted, they will be able to actually accomplish anything. If the Council includes the Prime Minister and requires 80% approval on most issues and 100% on others, then Allawi won't be able to achieve anything that Maliki doesn't support. So what's the point? How could they ever get consensus to enact anything independently of Maliki? Or am I missing something?
  9. Sladrian, How would I feel? If it was me, I'd still expect a trial. But I'm kind of nutty that way. I'd want to be sure they got the right guys. Just because someone accuses them of being part of the dreaded al Qaeda isn't proof. If you set the dangerous precedent of allowing executions without trial, just wait for false accusations to rise as a way to expeditiously get rid of people. Don't like that your business competitor is doing better than you? Accuse him of being al Qaeda. Don't like the guy who married the girl you wanted? Accuse him of being al Qaeda. No need to prove it and they'll kindly take his head off for you. I know I'm sounding flip, but you can't pick and choose who gets a trial and who doesn't. Are we not hoping to bring democracy and freedom to the Iraqi people? Then, sorry, but that includes a fair judicial system. Do they deserve the consequences if they are proven guilty? You betcha. I'd just want to be sure they are guilty first. Just sayin'.
  10. Too right, Maynard. In this fight against terrorism, it is too easy to give in to the darkness and become the thing you most fear. To be free, we must hold ourselves to our ideals of human rights without flinching. There can be no half measures. You either believe in justice, or you don't.
  11. Thanks for finding this, Uncle Barkie. While I don't think this particular article has been posted, the news has been discussed here: As Hammer911 and Doc31 state, this source is always changing his tune. We can't rely on what he says as having any relation to what is actually being planned by CBI or the GOI. The news report in this other thread, however, does not mention the other denominations of notes.
  12. Thanks, Doc31, for your generosity in creating this post. I'll be checking my dinars tonight. And thanks, okane, for finding this post and bringing it forward to a current position by commenting on it. I had not seen it yet and I bet many of the newer members haven't either. Much appreciated.
  13. Thanks for finding this article, nydinardj. It is an opinion piece, but it rings true. Here in Alberta, Canada, we learned back in the 80s the importance of not relying solely on oil for our strong economy. While it is still our main driver, diversification has kept us strong.
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