Why I'm still quite optimistic: I was watching a video on how to become a master of some topic. "The 4 things it takes to be an expert." People who master things, they noted the regularities. Like in order for you to predict something, to master it, repetition is very important. So is feedback. People who master chess, they look for patterns, repeat and analyze those patterns, over and over again. Then they see them, in new games.
I did this in the early 1990s. I read a book called "An Outline of History" by HG Wells. Very long book. It went into countless examples in history of countries and empires rising, then falling. They all did. No exceptions. That's a long pattern. So I told a buddy of mine that had grown up in Czechoslovakia, that "The USSR would crash, some day". All the bigshot experts at Harvard were saying at the time, "the Soviet Union will be around for hundreds of years." I was a big fan of Ronald Reagan, thought he'd win the Cold War. My buddy from Czechoslovakia laughed in my face when I predicted this, he told me how naïve I supposedly was. I hadn't even been to Europe, he said.
Reagan: A year later, "Mr. Gorbachev....tear down this Wall"...you remember that speech, don't you?...epic
The Soviet Union Crashed, the Wall came down. My buddy wasn't laughing any more.
One repeating pattern I noticed early in this investment: All countries use currencies. After wars there is a time of trouble. That happens, a lot. But in order to survive, all countries need to trade their currencies, globally. So they all do. Eventually. No exceptions.
So when something happened over and over and over again, it's likely to happen again, in the future. So it will.
The critics of Iraq are right: they have leaders, beyond incompetent. They may have set new global achievement records in stupidity and mismanagement and corruption and screwing things up. They are the sort of people who start out in life as billionaires and eventually work their way up to be millionaires. 🤡 But I don't think even Potato Head 🥔🤡 can screw this up, forever.