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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Iraq May 15, 2024 Washington, DC: On May 13, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Iraq and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal. Domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023. This supported the strong recovery in Iraq’s non-oil economy after a contraction in 2022, while Iraq was largely unaffected by the ongoing conflict in the region. Domestic inflation declined to 4 percent by end-2023, reflecting lower international food prices, the currency revaluation as of February 2023, and the normalization in trade finance. However, imbalances have worsened due to the large fiscal expansion and lower oil prices. The ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth in 2024, at the expense of a further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts and Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high and external stability risks could emerge. Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or a spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel. Executive Board Assessment[2] Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the strong economic rebound, declining inflation, and the improved domestic conditions which have resulted in the implementation of the first-ever three-year budget. Noting that risks are tilted to the downside, given regional conflicts and large dependence on volatile oil prices, and that the large fiscal expansion could result in fiscal and external imbalances, Directors underscored the need for sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to secure fiscal and debt sustainability, advance economic diversification, and achieve sustainable, inclusive, and private sector-led growth. Directors emphasized that a gradual, yet sizeable fiscal adjustment is needed to stabilize debt in the medium term and rebuild fiscal buffers. They encouraged the authorities to focus on controlling the public wage bill, phasing out mandatory hiring policies, and mobilizing non-oil revenues, while better targeting social assistance. Directors agreed that prompt implementation of customs and revenue administration reforms, a full implementation of the Treasury Single Account, and a strict control and limit of the use of extrabudgetary funds and government guarantees are key to support fiscal consolidation. Limiting monetary financing and reforming the pension system are also important. Directors commended the central bank’s efforts to tighten monetary policy and enhance its liquidity management framework. Improving coordination between fiscal and monetary operations would help absorb excess liquidity and enhance monetary policy transmission. Directors concurred that accelerating the restructuring of the large state-owned banks is also essential. They encouraged further modernizing the private banking sector, including by facilitating the establishment of correspondent banking relationships, reducing regulatory uncertainties, and promoting efficiency and competitiveness of private banks. Directors emphasized the need for structural reforms to unlock private sector development. They encouraged leveling the playing field between public and private jobs, boosting female labor force participation, and reforming education and labor laws. Directors agreed that improving governance and combatting corruption are also key and encouraged further strengthening the AML-CFT framework, enhancing public procurement and business regulations, and addressing electricity sector inefficiencies. Directors welcomed the renewed efforts toward WTO accession. They also encouraged the authorities to improve the coverage and timeliness of statistics. Directors concurred that close engagement with the Fund, including through continued technical assistance, would be useful, and welcomed the authorities’ request for a Policy Coordination Instrument. It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Iraq will be held on the standard 12-month cycle. [1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.5 points
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I restocked our food, supplies etc this morning for the 30th time. I have no clue on the timing but I'm certain I will be ready when it happens. 💯5 points
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They're waiting for you to step up and organize it 😆 Can you imagine the restraint those who instituted the plan have had to have to let this play out? To have to look defeated in the eyes of the woke media and their followers? In some ways, I believe you have taken the bait.5 points
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REMEMBER, no one really knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq... So, take everything with a grain of salt ... RON Samson Article: "Parliamentary Finance: The Council of Ministers will approve the budget schedules on Sunday" Pimpy We are seeing a renaissance take place over in Iraq. But the same issues that are keeping it from really taking off and giving Iraq the type of boom it really needs in its economy and its growth is being held down by the same corrupt politicians that have been holding Iraq back for the past 20 plus years. But overall, the report from Jeanine Plasschaert was very very uplifting and praising. It showed a lot of positive things taking place in Iraq so don't let the bad things overshadow all the progress Iraq has made. We look forward to Sudani continuing this for at least another four years we hope. See Full Article: In her recent briefing, Plasschaert points out “progress” and “failures” in “Renaissance Iraq.” - 5/16/2024 Kaperoni Article: "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Iraq" My preliminary review are the Article IV Consultation clearly emphasizes the urgency to diversify their economy in raising non-oil revenue. There's also significant discussion encouraging Iraq to continue to develop their banking system and remove excess liquidity. [Post 1 of 2 Reposted] Kaperoni These comments from the IMF are obviously meant to encourage them that the opportunity is now to develop and accelerate economic growth, as well as to take significant steps forward with their banking system engaging with banks outside of Iraq. From these documents, it is very clear that Iraq still has a lot of work to do. And I do not see in the near future any change in monetary policy until progress is made. Again, creating the conditions for economic growth appears to be the focus. [Post 2 of 2]4 points
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REMEMBER, no one really knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq... So, take everything with a grain of salt ... RON Militia Man Article: "The Finance Committee 'knows nothing' about the budget tables" Al-Sudani has been holding his cards so ever close to the chest. The looks of it now is that he will not expose the 2024 schedule data until after there is an exchange rate change that will reduce the deficit. Will that be after the vote for the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the HoR and or before extraordinary session for Sunday by the Prime Minister of Iraq, Al-Sudani. Time will tell. But, since the CoM nor the HoR have yet to receive the 2024 Budget schedules we can deduce, it is going to be a very tight window for events to occur. Frank26 [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report] FIREFLY: Television says the speaker of the house will be voted on and will go through on Saturday and then the meeting of the emergency session for the review of the budget with the COM will be Sunday...Then the budget goes to the House the middle of the week. FRANK: They know what's going on.4 points
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Your IMF Update: Country Report No. 2024/128 - Iraq 🇮🇶4 points
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Not disagreeing...only asking. Where are all the real Patriots? Millions demonstrated Trump & BLM burned the cities. Not one single protester protesting OBiden...no not one. There should be 50 million Americans in the streets right now, protesting OBiden. All I see are the statues, flag burnings & veteran cemeteries are once again, under attack.4 points
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You're not wrong except for a certain military branch that jfk started for this moment in time.4 points
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Nope, don't believe so. This plan has taken so long to implement so as to prevent civil war. Trump could have come back a long time ago, but he waited for the masses to wake up. As Ivan said, there are 80,000+ ready to be deputized by sheriffs around the nation. There will be a time of Martial Law. Then, when the dust settles, we will have a time of great restoration.4 points
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And that will cause a civil war. There will be blood in the streets if that happens.4 points
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Here's some articles of Dinarian interests... BRICS+ flexes it's muscles, Introduces the UNIT. Treat as rumors. Not verified. Your opine. From Other Sources: BRICS Unveils Its Grand Plan For A New Gold-Backed Financial System. ARTICLE: The Unit’s structure, anchored in gold and BRICS+ currencies, provides for de-dollarization, along with a stable and decentralized monetary framework. In 2024, the global financial landscape is poised for a significant transformation with the introduction of a groundbreaking concept: it’s called the BRICS Unit. A boring & unremarkable name, but it makes total sense & it’s financial implications will be profound. Proposed by the financial services and investments working group of the BRICS+ Business Council, the Unit aims to establish a decentralized monetary ecosystem. Introduction to the BRICS+ Unit. The Unit, conceptualized by Alexey Subbotin, founder of Arkhangelsk Capital Management, is designed to tackle the inherent flaws of centralized monetary systems established over 80 years ago at Bretton Woods. These flaws include chronic deficits, speculative bubbles, politically motivated sanctions & a lack of fair arbitration. The Unit proposes a reliable, quick, and economically efficient solution for cross-border payments, functioning as a new form of international currency issued in a decentralized manner and regulated at the national level. Addressing Global Financial and Payment Issues. The current global financial system faces numerous challenges, including speculative bubbles & politically motivated sanctions. The Unit aims to address these issues by providing a decentralized monetary framework that is both reliable & efficient for cross-border payments. By doing so, it tackles the root problems of chronic deficits & lack of fair arbitration, offering a solution that can restore trust in the global financial system. Economic and Political Benefits The Unit offers numerous benefits, particularly for the Global Majority, by providing a form of apolitical money. It aims to harmonize trade & financial flows, maintaining independence from political pressures. This financial sovereignty is particularly appealing to countries seeking an alternative to the current centralized systems. The Unit’s structure, anchored in gold (40%) and BRICS+ currencies (60%), provides a stable & trustworthy monetary framework. Technological Features and Adoption Prospects. Technologically, the Unit is designed to be compatible with both traditional banking operations & the newest forms of digital banking. It aims to upend unfair pricing in commodity trading by establishing the Eurasian Mercantile Exchange, where trading and settlement can be conducted in this new currency. This approach facilitates the development of new financial products for foreign direct investment (FDI), bridging trade flows & capital. The Unit employs distributed ledger technology to ensure transparency & prevent capital controls or exchange rate manipulation. This technology allows connections to all open decentralized exchanges (DEX) & digital platforms operated by both commercial & central banks worldwide. The end goal is for everyone to use the Unit for accounting, bookkeeping, pricing, settling, paying, saving & investing. Implementation Timeline and Adoption Prospects. The BRICS Business Council has already backed the Unit & it is on the agenda for the upcoming ministerial meeting in Russia. The roadmap for its adoption will be discussed at the BRICS+ summit in October 2024 in Kazan. With the potential for implementation as early as 2025, the Unit presents a feasible technical solution for creating a globally recognized payment & trade system immune to political pressure. The Bottom Line The Unit represents a groundbreaking approach to addressing the shortcomings of current centralized monetary systems. By offering a decentralized, apolitical currency, it promises economic & political benefits for the Global Majority. Its technological innovations & potential for wide-scale adoption position it as a key player in the future of global finance. From Other Sources: The Coming of the BRICS Decentralized Monetary Ecosystem. ARTICLE: Escobar: De-Dollarization Bombshell – The Coming Of BRICS+ Decentralized Monetary Ecosystem. Get ready for what may well be the geoeconomic bombshell of 2024: the coming of a decentralized monetary ecosystem. Welcome to The Unit – a concept that has already been discussed by the financial services & investments working group set up by the BRICS+ Business Council & has a serious shot at becoming official BRICS+ policy as early as in 2025. According to Alexey Subbotin, founder of Arkhangelsk Capital Management & one of the Unit’s conceptualizers, this is a new problem-solving system that addresses the key geoeconomic issue of these troubled times: a global crisis of trust. He knows all about it first-hand: a seasoned financial professional with experience in investment banking, asset management & corporate matters, Subbotin leads the Unit project under the auspices of IRIAS, an international intergovernmental organization set up in 1976 in accordance with the UN statute. The Global Majority has had enough of the centrally controlled monetary framework put in place 80 years ago in Bretton Woods & its endemic flaws: chronic deficits fueling irresponsible military spending; speculative bubbles; politically motivated sanctions and secondary sanctions; abuse of settlement & payment infrastructure; protectionism; the lack of fair arbitration. In contrast, the Unit proposes a reliable, quick and economically efficient solution for cross-border payments. The – transactional – Unit is a game-changer as a new form of international currency that can be issued in a de-centralized way & then recognized & regulated at national level.4 points
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do you think the hidden budget schedules have a bit to do with a float? and calls by the IMF to make a sizeable fiscal adjustment and create space to fund these reconstruction budgets, social security and salary changes and increases? if it wasn't such a big deal why would they hide them or it not be buit into general budget? why are the electorates saying they haven't only received 15%4 points
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There have been so many 'quiet' before no storms before. This is nothing again I'll bet.4 points
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as reported on reuters, regulators have been put on notice that major clearing houses are expecting to crash wiping out hundreds of billions...is is a major warning...its coming and you cant stop it! you must prepare yourself now, what does it mean? if means they are coming for your collateral!3 points
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Iraqi parliament convenes to elect a new speaker IraqBreakingSpeakerIraqi 2024-05-18 13:09 Font Shafaq News/ The Iraqi Parliament convened on Saturday to elect a new Speaker, replacing Mohammed al-Halboosi who was dismissed last year. Shafaq News Agency correspondent said that Acting Speaker Muhsen al-Mandalawi opened the session after a quorum of 180 lawmakers from various parliamentary blocs was reached. The parliament was scheduled to vote on electing a new Speaker. The parliament also voted to extend the current legislative term for 30 days and finalized the discussion and voting on the draft law on official holidays3 points
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Country Report No. 2024/129 : Iraq: Selected Issues3 points
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Patriots are educating themselves and helping spread truths which is the deepstates worst fear, this is an informational war between good and evil. We aren't doing what they expect or want us to do by rioting etc.. We're "trusting the plan"3 points
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Agree. We are being g baited into a fight. Democrats want chaos so they can implement martial law & cancel the election. Don't get baited in & fall for the trap they are setting.3 points
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It will definitely look like the above is happening for short bit of time until military steps in and puts our correct president in place. Then 💥 boom 💥 reset time and a whole lot more freedom. We still need to be prepared because we are only 3 meals away from total chaos..3 points
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Absolutely. Reuters is NOT a fake Democrat controlled news outlet. It will all start with the bank bail-ins & snowball from there. It will be 1929 all over again except many, many times worse. The banks will seize our assets total net worth, then shut their doors for good, after we are striped of our assets. Our assets include mortgages, car loans, savings, 401 K retirement accounts, even our direct payroll check deposits.3 points
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buffet in his recent video hinted at something coming its why he is holding onto his 200 billion in cash because when the stock market is wiped out he will buy....he will need his cash! this will wipe out banks, peoples cash, small business etc...3 points
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reduce liquidity by wiping of zeros from accounts, pure accounting...they need to make a sizeable fiscal adjustment this will adjust liquidity, given them purchasing power by adjusting the rate and give them the space to fund projects and social security and welfare(IMF). it is possible that a vote on sunday sees a rate change on sunday? maybe maybe not! Sudani and CBI governor will be the only two that know!3 points
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From WRAL-TV; Winning MegaMillions Numbers Friday, May 17, 2024 08 17 40 60 70 MB 03 Megaplier 2X Sorry; We had no winning matches tonight.3 points
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Someone is confused by the statement that President Trump is innocent? Let’s see if this statement confuses you! Hamas=terrorism!3 points
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It's a very slow Intel day in Dinarland. Maybe this will be the quiet before the storm. Go RV.3 points
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Floating the Iraqi dinar...a solution to fill the “gap” of its troubled price against the dollar EconomyBreakingDollarIraqi DinarCurrency Float 2024-05-17 // 06:10 Shafaq News / The stability of the Iraqi dinar has been facing major challenges for years, as it has witnessed price fluctuations that have not stabilized, especially with the rapid rise and very slow decline of the price of the dollar, in addition to a gap between what the Iraqi Central Bank determines and what is sold in the parallel market, especially in banking shops that do not adhere to According to the instructions of the Central Bank. In order to avoid the “volatility” syndrome and the “gap” in the price of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, some experts believe that the solution lies in a kind of “surgical” operation for the country’s monetary system that may be painful, but it achieves long-term monetary stability for the national currency through... "float". The cash selling price, according to the Central Bank, is 1,305 dinars per dollar, while the price for transfers abroad is 1,310 dinars per dollar, and the price in the parallel market is about 1,450 dinars per dollar in mid-May, according to local media, while it reached levels of 1,600 dinars per dollar in previous periods. For months, the Iraqi authorities have imposed restrictions in their efforts to control exchange rates, restricting all commercial transactions within the country to the Iraqi dinar, and established a new mechanism that subjects external transfers to greater scrutiny. Iraqi economic analysts who spoke to Al-Hurra website, some of them warned against taking a decision that would lead to floating the dinar, while some of them believe that a moderate policy could be taken that suits the Iraqi economy, based on “floating” and “stabilization” at the same time. Is the flotation policy compatible with the Iraqi economy? Advisor to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Salih, believes that floating the currency price does not suit the Iraqi economy, especially since it is a "rentier economy, dominated by foreign currency reserves." He explains in statements to the “Al-Hurra” website that “the economic vision that wants to float the Iraqi dinar to end the gap between the official price and the parallel price may be possible in an economy in which the free market alone influences the movement of the balance of payments, and not in an economy in which the rentier government sector is dominant and generates reserves.” Foreign currency". He added, "The monetary authority in Iraq alone is the main source of supply of foreign currency that meets the desired demand for foreign exchange in the local market." Saleh believes that the demands for flotation inevitably mean “adopting the prevailing exchange rate in the parallel market, in order to achieve the goal of stability and balance in the official exchange rate itself at a new exchange point that the market will reach at the end of the assumed flotation policy and return to stability again.” The flotation scenario also means “the withdrawal of the monetary authority as the main central offerer of foreign currency, and its replacement by new forces of free market makers, which certainly have only a weak, limited supply of foreign exchange,” according to Saleh. He points out that these forces carry “an uncontrolled package of inflationary expectations, and are called in the economic literature (the forces generating inflationary expectations), which will give dominance to the supply forces of speculators” who own limited amounts of foreign exchange, matched by “an open demand for foreign currency from The market side" exceeds what is offered by "at least more than ten times in our estimate." Counselor Saleh described this policy as “unruly,” as as long as “the central government supply of foreign currency will be absent from the market, we will not obtain any equilibrium point in the exchange rate that flotation seeks except with a widespread deterioration of the exchange rate as long as it is carried out by forces generating inflationary expectations in a severe rentier economy.” "unilateralism." He warns that if the exchange rate moves in “a market that is incomplete, in terms of productivity, in its compensation for the required supply of goods and services,” no one “will know how much the new exchange rate resulting from the flotation will be,” which will be accompanied by “a prior wave of inflationary expectations,” the trends of which are difficult to control. Which may push monetary policy makers to “intervene with excessive foreign reserves and unjustified waste in foreign exchange to impose a state of stability.” According to the World Bank, Iraq has 145 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, which are among the largest crude oil reserves in the world. But Iraq hopes that the country's oil reserves will exceed 160 billion barrels, according to what the Minister of Oil, Hayyan Abdul Ghani, recently announced. What if the Iraqi dinar was floated? The claims that have appeared every now and then for years calling for floating the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar are “strange,” and most of them are made by people who are “not specialized in economics or monetary policy,” according to what Professor of International Economic Relations, Abdul Rahman al-Mashhadani, confirms to the Al-Hurra website. He asserts in a decisive tone, "Iraq cannot proceed with floating the dinar's exchange rate. The evidence for this is all the agreements concluded with the International Monetary Fund since 2004, and the reviews praised the stabilization of the exchange rate by the Central Bank of Iraq." Al-Mashhadani added that there was a study by experts at the World Bank during the past years that recommended “raising the exchange rate,” noting that even then, “these recommendations cannot be taken into account because the World Bank is concerned with what is related to economic development, but following up on the recommendations for monetary policies is taken into account if It was from the International Monetary Fund. In its latest review on Thursday, the International Monetary Fund praised the efforts of the Central Bank of Iraq to tighten monetary policy and strengthen its liquidity management framework. He explains that “the real gap is in the wheel of production in the Iraqi economy, as the majority of goods are imported from abroad, which means that the flotation will cause a spiral in price rates to become significantly high and affect the marginalized classes,” indicating that such a decision cannot be taken “as a matter of politics.” “Cash” only, as we must “consider the burdens it will impose on citizens.” Al-Mashhadani confirms that what has been applied in other Arab countries does not “mean that it can be applied to the Iraqi economy,” suggesting that “the exchange rate will become at the levels of 5,000 dinars to the dollar,” as “the Central Bank has lost control of exchange rates, leaving them to float.” There is a fear that “floating” will cause “social” problems, as “salaries will erode significantly,” which may threaten “new classes to slide into poverty,” while “a class of merchants, politicians, and businessmen will benefit, who will benefit from the state of instability that will result from... This matter". Al-Mashhadani agrees that floating in the end means “that the parallel market will control exchange rates,” but it will not achieve “the desired monetary stability,” as the central bank will then need to “print more local currency to keep up with demand in the markets,” and the government will need to increase salaries and allocations for aid packages. Social. The Iraqi government advisor, Saleh, attributes the reason and existence of a “gap” in the dinar’s exchange rates against the dollar between the official and parallel markets to “external factors imposed by the compliance platform and auditing administrative restrictions on external transfer movements, which is not related to the deficit in the authority’s monetary reserves,” noting that the reserve Iraq's foreign currency is considered the highest in the country's history, as it touches the levels of import coverage for 16 months, compared to the global standard, which does not exceed three months of import coverage. Financial transfers in dollars through official channels have increased significantly in Iraq, while Iraq continues its reforms of the financial sector in line with international standards, according to a previous report by Agence France-Presse. In late 2022, the Iraqi banking sector adopted the SWIFT electronic transfer system with the aim of providing better control over the use of the dollar, ensuring compliance with US sanctions on Tehran, and also in order to limit the prosperity of the informal economy. The financial standards that were adopted encouraged the emergence of a parallel market for currencies, attracting those seeking to obtain dollars outside official channels. Saleh pointed out that there is a distortion in support for the prices of some commodities “on the part of financial policy, which is support in which the rich and poor mostly enjoy it equally without discrimination, and it represents an added, imperceptible real income, and it is the product of a financial policy inherited from the consumer welfare state for the rentier resource.” He continued, "It is inconceivable until this moment that 90 percent of Iraq's population is receiving food support provided by the state as an extension of the economic blockade phase of the 1990s in light of the changing standards of living and lifestyle, the increasing numbers of affluent people, and the growth of the middle class." https://shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/تعويم-دينار-العراق-حل-لسد-فجوة-سعره-المضطرب-مام-الدولار2 points
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