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Good morning, DinarVets! This one took me a bit to write up, and I'll be candid here - it was the most fun I've had writing an update in quite some time! Like many of you, I do fairly frequent "check ins" on my feelings about this investment... and I have questions, just like everyone else. "Is this still worth waiting on? Did the bus turn around and it's time to get off?" An Iraqi RV is not a guarantee, so these are fair questions any sane and intelligent person should ask themselves once in a while. I'm happy to state that today is not the day I'm getting off the bus. In fact, I'm pulling the seatbelt tighter! There was a question posed a couple weeks back about "sterilization". The CBI employs a procedure called "sterilization" as a monetary policy, but that is different than what may have been being asked... which is why I asked for clarification on it. I wanted to go deeper into the topic, but my post on CBI Auctions and the Iraqi Budget was already getting a bit lengthy. As of this morning (Friday 13 March 2020), there is a lot of "sterilization" talk - and most of it is not related to monetary policy, but actual disinfecting. The CoronaVirus is currently causing chaos in the markets, creating instability and fear that is likely to last a bit longer (but not forever), and it's always good to "get back to the basics". You know - a "check in". In these crazy times, are we the crazy ones? Are we crazy for sitting this ride out a little longer? Should we be throwing in the towel, selling all our dinar, and spending all of our money on toilet paper and hand sanitizer? I think the answer lies at least partly in the following subjects, so let's get into it! The topics today are as follows: CBI Auctions, and the Iraqi Budget. Before we do a little bit of a deep dive, I have a couple of opinions that may seem contrary - namely, the Budget and the Auctions, while important to Iraq, will probably never have a significant impact on (when or if) the RV. In spite of that, the seatbelt just got tighter, and my smile got bigger. These are complex topics, I'm going to simplify a little and I'm only covering a few of the aspects, but these are major parts of the topics and therefore a major factor in the size of my current smile. The summary, which you'll understand if you can make it through this entire post, is simple. Despite these scary and crazy times we are living in, Iraq and the Iraqi Dinar still have incredible potential. The rate of a currency is generally set by the countries Central Bank, not the IMF or anyone else. Iraq's rate is set by the CBI (Central Bank of Iraq). Ready? Here we go! CBI Auctions. These are used by the CBI to regulate the money, control the money, maintain the money - specifically, the rate and the amount in circulation. Actually, the CBI is selling USD at the auctions... but this will turn into a 7 hour read if I go too deep into that! It's helpful to understand where Iraq comes up with the USD to sell at the CBI auctions. The short version is this: Iraq's primary source of revenue is OIL. Payments are made in US Dollars, paid to the DFI (Development Fund For Iraq). The USD is then transferred to the Ministry of Finance (MoF), and the MoF sells it to the CBI in exchange for Dinars - the same Dinars that the CBI collected through the Auctions of USD. image source See how that all came full circle? Money in, money out, easy peasy. (This will take us to the Budget later.) (Fun fact! Dollars go to the DFI account rather than directly to the MoF to prevent the money from immediately being confiscated to pay reparation debts... kind of like using an IBC to protect assets.) We can expect the auctions to continue while the Dinar is pegged to the dollar, undervalued, and the circulation needs to be controlled. There are some people who believe the Auctions in Iraq need to stop, and there's good reason for that - few countries have had success with them. For example, South Sudan (who knows where that is?) tried it four times after they devalued. South Sudan, which is known as one of the most underdeveloped nations in the world, and who's primary export is timber. That's no knock on wood, the world needs wood... but wood isn't oil, and South Sudan isn't Iraq. (Sudan and South Sudan don't even make the top 100 in the world for oil reserves.) Iraq is obviously different, both in potential here and in the successful practice of having auctions. Other countries to do currency auctions include Jamaica, Uganda and Sierra Leone. Like South Sudan - none of them are Iraq, and none of them carried Auctions as long as Iraq... in fact, the auctions in those cases were failures. With those examples in mind, of course we'd like to see the currency options stop. And they probably will, at some point. But most likely not until after the RV. Since the auctions aren't stopping, and Iraq is not the same as the countries that failed at auctions... what can we expect during a major rate change? Fantastic question! I'll take a stab at it, using examples to make the point. At the auctions, the CBI operates buy/sell at about a 2% difference, which is an effective start of the spread that will affect every single one of us. If the rate were changed today to 1IQD per 1USD and the IQD returns to the global market (it will, at any significant increase in rate), then we will be trading in at the rate stated by the CBI minus middlemen fees - what it costs to actually get the money through the various institutions and into your account. (This isn't Bitcoin, you know!) If the CBI is using a 2% spread, they will "buy" at .98 and "sell" at 1 per US dollar. I fully expect that to fluctuate, perhaps wildly. They may pay .99 at first to show their confidence, and then lower it to .90 or further. (The bigger the differential, the more beneficial it is to them for the day profits.) They may quickly move to a flat 1:1 "Auction rate" simply to reinforce the rate and show that they are going to ditch the auctions soon - a lot of this is going to depend on the market. It is a business, after all. A 2 cent difference may not seem like much, but bear with me... It is important to understand the spread! I'll keep using the 1:1 number. For example, Iraq announces that the dinar is equal to the US dollar, the CBI is backing it, the IQD goes on the global market, and the rate sustains itself after a short time due to market demand. At this point, a lot changes, but those are different (and much longer) conversations. When we exchange, we are not going to the CBI - we are going to a bank that will trade IQD for dollars (or any currency). That bank will rely on the CBI buy rate first, which means they are getting a max of .98 USD per 1 IQD. Then they have to pay tellers and all their other expenses, so they add their spread on top of that - and this is assuming the bank you use is buying (selling) direct with the CBI. (They won't be.) By the time it gets to you, the CBI may have an advertised rate of $1, but you're only putting .70 in your pocket (before taxes). That "spread", or "cost", is unavoidable. We are not going to get the full "rate". Of course, you will get a better rate (money in your pocket) if you're VIP here at DinarVets, but that's not the point of this. The point is the Auctions will continue, and looking at past auctions - even yesterday's or today's auction - will not give us clues to if Iraq will RV today or tomorrow. (If we could see tomorrow's auction, that would be a different story!) The Auctions are good to see, in Iraq, because they are proof that Iraq is stable, still in business, and functioning. But the CBI Auctions will not give us the RV date until after you get my text message. The Iraqi Budget. The Iraqi Budget is important to Iraq because it defines how they spend money - and yes, it's the same money that was mentioned above, which comes mostly from oil sales. The MoF distributes IQD to each department according to the Budget. The Budget allocates resources to specific departments, based on a percentage of revenue or a fixed amount, and the individual departments spend their portion accordingly - just like giving your kid an allowance. A Budget works the same way in most places, and Iraq is no different. Politicians lobby for their departments, asking for more money always, and this is why a "tripartisan" government is so important and mentioned so much in the current Prime Minister debacle. If a Prime Minister came in and seated all members of one political group, it would be like the US having only Democrats or only Republicans in power. The reason we hear about the Iraqi Budget so much is simple - they are all fighting for money. (Or power, but it's really the same thing.) The reasons I say the Iraqi Budget doesn't matter are pretty simple. You've made it this far, stick with me just a little further! 1. Whether a specific Department (Defense, Education, etc) is on the Iraqi Budget for a percentage or a fixed money amount, there is a dollar/dinar amount that can be assigned to it based on the current price of oil x demand for oil = projected income / department allocation = $ for Department. This is a simple calculation that can be done in 2 minutes on a 1 page presentation. It's literally 2nd grade math. 2. Regardless of any rate change, that dollar amount can be estimated and stay the same with a simple Amendment. Imagine a late night Parliament meeting - called at the last minute after 8PM one night, emergency, mandatory! One item on the agenda - doors are locked, cell phones left outside - the ONE ITEM is this: We are going to raise the rate at midnight provided everyone signs this Budget Amendment. The Budget Amendment, in this case, states that the previous passed Budget is fixed at the old rate and all Departments receive an immediate 10% bonus due to the CBI exchange rate adjustment. The rest of the money that becomes available is held in reserve until further modification of the Budget... EVERY SINGLE POLITICIAN is a hero and has almost unlimited job security at that point. Not one of them loses. It's the biggest slam dunk in Parliament history. Of course they wouldn't magically start to get along, but that's an offer even that bunch of hooligans couldn't screw up. OR: 3. Bypass the late night meeting and just pass a Presidential declaration stating the same. It accomplishes the same thing, and by the time anyone could complain, the rate would have been in effect long enough that it wouldn't matter. The President knows this. The CBI knows it. You know it. I know it. The bottom line here? It doesn't matter what the Budget says, because all the Budget really does is allocate money to departments. The rate, based on the global fiat currency exchange program, controls how many wing dings and knick knacks they can buy with their money because of it's international status... but the Department of Wing Dings is still going to have $X of the Budget, the Department of Knick Knacks still has $X, regardless of the rate, and that's the way it works. Fiat currency isn't an "Iraq" thing - it's a WORLD thing. OIL isn't an Iraq thing. Budgets aren't an Iraq thing. Currency manipulation isn't an Iraq thing. NONE of this is unique to Iraq - all of this is "business as usual", and when Iraq changes their rate, that's what it is - business as usual. Conclusion: There are plenty of good reasons for intelligent people to discuss the Budget and the Auctions. It's important that Iraq continue to be successful in the Auctions, pass their Budget, and continue doing business. While the world demands OIL, those who have it will always have credit. Iraq has proven itself capable of utilizing Auctions as a form of monetary control, and I don't believe their Auctions or Budget are a hindrance to increasing the value of the Dinar. In fact, it looks quite the opposite. And on that note, I say... GOOOOO RRRRVVVVV!!!!!

How did I know someone was going to stomp in here and summarize a couple days of work in a single sentence?

In January, I posted about Breitling and his partner doing webinars on tax planning for the RV. Today I got a message from his partner (which went out to all people on Breitling's mailing list) saying that, with oil prices dropping, they decided to add an extra webinar later this month because basically, time is short now. It seems that Breitling, my favorite dinar guru. thinks these oil wars may indeed push Iraq to RV quickly. If you want to attend the webinar (which are free) go to Breitling's site and at the end of his audios, he gives you the website where you can sign up for them. But the fact that Breitling feels there's a good chance the RV may happen pretty soon gives me a nice dose of hopium that has a good chance of being true! GOOOOOOOOOO RV!!!

We are still waiting on the Iranian Rial to RV first don’t you remember you informed everyone that the Iraqi Dinar was only going to RV after the Rial!!...So let us all not get too hyped up on any of your nonsense predictions okay!!

the hardest part of writing a 7000 word post is usually butchering it back down to 2000 And I certainly agree - this post focused on a couple specific items IN Iraq, but the large picture certainly involves much more, like this: I said “it wouldn’t matter” because once the rest of the world is involved, that train is not going to be stopped. All the best to you and yours as well!

So, the auctions are like a pacemaker controlling the speed of the flow of blood while we wait for the transplant?

Thank You For The Structured And Analytical Yet Exceptionally Cogent Post, Adam, AND ALL The Very Best!!! Certainly, Your post focused on things IN Iraq and for good reason. THANKS!!! If left ALONE to the Bicraqi Iraqi of THEIR own "accord", I would NOT be as favorable regarding THIS Speculative Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Investment and likely would have NOT gotten into THIS "investment" AT ALL. My opinion is the turbocharged value to the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar INTERNATIONALLY !!!SUDDENLY!!! is due to the INTERNATIONAL Trade BEYOND CRUDE OIL that, in my opinion, will power up AND amp up. Every Country needs Trade to bolster THEIR economies. With Iraq's untapped and unharnessed natural resources, strategic location, AND positioning for INTERNATIONAL Safe, Secure, Stable, AND Sovereign Relations, Iraq likely will be a primo go to fertile location for INTERNATIONAL influx of capital for economic development. A veritable fountain of economic productivity IF THEE Bicraqi Iraqi maintain THEIR obligations for remaining Safe, Secure, Stable, AND Sovereign while engaging the Win/Win with foreign investors BEYOND CRUDE OIL. I believe THIS will happen and is key to THIS Speculative Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Investment "success". I believe BOTH the internal AND external factors are equally important for ReInstating THEE Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar INTERNATIONALLY !!!SUDDENLY!!!. Kinda like a transmission in the engine/transmission/power train configuration. The engine is the external INTERNATIONAL funds exchange with Iraq, the transmission is Iraq WITH ALL THEE Bicraqi Iraqi AND THEIR "behaviors", AND THEE power train is the Bicraqi Iraqi production sector BEYOND CRUDE OIL inter related to other Countries for TRACTION purposes. Well, OK, some power take off units and gear boxes properly constructed and lubed hanging off the side of the transmission. Well, OK, astronomical speculation from an exceptionally simple mentally incapacitated model. Well, OK, another simple mentally incapacitated model is the pass through INTERNATIONAL Trade for Iraq of, nominally, 5 TRILLION USD per year (2.5 TRILLION going west, south, AND north / 2.5 TRILLION going east) WITH 1% pass through tariffs AND customs: 5 TRILLION USD per year x 1% = 50 BILLION USD per year. THIS ALONE will "wipe" "out" THEE Bicraqi Iraqi Annual Budget "deficits". WHY, pray tell, Is THIS "show" NOT ON THEE "trade" "route", er, "road"???!!! Legacy INTERNATIONAL AND Bicraqi Iraqi corruption from the previous 40+ years. I look for corresponding yet seemingly unrelated news indicating THIS "obstruction" HAS BEEN removed. Well, OK, I (MOST other folks, too) likely am better served just sticking with Your Exceptionally COGENT assessments, Adam!!! THANK YOU!!! Go Moola Nova!

Spoke to my Shia friend tonight for a second. He sent me the attachment below. It was a tweet that Sadr put out basically quoting, mocking and blaming trump for the virus and other things. He is a bad Apple that we really should eliminate..

Low oil prices will put enormous pressure on Iraq 2020 budget. CBI will have to do something to prevent a economic catastrophe. Go RV ASAP

what a good breakdown . the best i have read ,thanks Adam

My smile just increased!

Thank you for the taking a complicated subject and breaking it down to simplistic terms. glad you are feeling better. Go RV

20,000 Tomorrow Are you ready?

Bingo Keylime. I was actually thinking about your post today. Good stuff. Thanks

This will be my last chart update for a few days. I’m headed down to the Gulf of Mexico to escape for 3 days. I will be alone so I won’t be in any crowds. The last 3 weeks has been a bit stressful and I always know when it’s time to chill out for a few days. It’s time to relax a bit and recharge the batteries. The above chart is a weekly view going back 4 plus years. If you look at the underlined dips in 2016 and 2018 you will see the Price of the S&P 500 checks up at the red line or the 200 moving average. This is a line that goes back to 2011. A beautiful rising Price in the S&P chart pattern. Now look at this weeks action. Today we officially killed the 11 year Bull Market and more important we broke the 200 ma. Maybe we get some good news and have a ferocious rally tomorrow to form a wick while the body of the candlestick hugs the 200 ma. That would be awesome and a nice relief. (Maybe even a temporary short term capitulation). It will have to be a huge rally so don’t hold your breathe waiting for it. The lows that are underlined are the supports. 2350 ish for 2018 and 1810-30 for the low in 2016. Ouch. I’m not saying we will go that low but it’s possible. The RSI (circled) and the MACD below the chart look real oversold but when markets do these big swift sell offs the indicators are not as accurate. If the news continues to get bad the market will go lower. The Fed action today gave us a nice trade-able rally (thank you) but it is NOT a stimulus for the Stock Market. It was more a way to shore up the bond market by adding liquidity so the entire system doesn’t freeze up. There were some big institutions trying to sell some bonds to raise cash but THERE WERE NO BUYERS. It was a disruption of the bond market and we don’t need that to freeze up at this time. The 10 year yield under 1 is a scary situation. Keep an eye on that. I don’t want to scare you but things have definitely gotten worse this week as the Markets are pricing in a Recession and that’s if we get things back up and going in a few months. Don’t be in a hurry to jump in even if you see a huge spike tomorrow. There will be fits and starts as the Market digests the news. Some of the spikes will be algo driven reacting to good/bad news. We saw that today when the Fed made their announcement. A quick spike and subsequent draw back down. We are going to be in for a wild ride folks. Try not to worry and don’t be in a big hurry to rush back into the Stock Market. In markets like this NOTHING WORKS, NOT EVEN GOLD as evidenced by my 2 swings cut short this week. For most of you that are long term holders just turn the damn TV off. There is a lot of nonesense being spewed these days.

3-12-2020 Intel Guru Footforward [Q? : What is your opinion the rate you think? I'm hearing it could just be $4.00 or even higher.] IT'S MY OPINION THE RATE WILL NOT BE $1.34! I'm not sure how much more strongly I can state...My "opinion" is it will be over $3. I don't want to be too specific. There is a reason I need to be somewhat vague... 3-12-2020 Newshound Guru Pimpy ...APN News put out an article last April talking about the different currencies you should invest in. Article "Why You Should Invest In The Iraqi Dinar." APN is from India...they're talking about the US dollar, the Euro, the Japanese yen, the British Pound, the Canadian dollar. It goes on...quote "if you are interested in investing in an upcoming currency, you need to select Iraqi dinar." They're encouraging people to invest in the Iraq dinar. It doesn't say like our government, avoid it. It's a scam. No the APN is telling people to invest in the Iraq dinar. It says in the next few years Iraqi dinar is expected to become one of the major currencies in the Middle East. We know this. I know you naysayers out there going this is a scam...Here in the America they call it a scam but other counties they call it an investment...

3-13-2020 Newshound Guru Adam Montana ...The world, and the world markets, are treating the Corona Virus as if it were a full blown pandemic - so, whether it deserves to be treated that way or not - that's what we are dealing with. OIL is down to about $30....Stocks... don't even get me started on the markets... Iraq is vulnerable to all of these things, just like the rest of the world - and on top of that, they are dealing with a Prime Minister issue. In spite of all that... guess who's not going anywhere? Iraq, you, and me. We aren't going anywhere...Taken from a site that follows Adam's Opinions and posts snippets from them. 3-13-2020 Newshound Guru Vital Brad There's just too many things right now are pointing to what we've been waiting for. Here we are in the beginning of March, a lot of people say in March is gonna be a really big month hoping for a reinstatement of their currency. Coming up on the beginning of the second quarter April 1st - potentially a time when they can transition to a new fiscal calendar. March through April is gonna be really interesting to see what happens here in the next little bit. Things are getting exciting over there. You definitely want to stay tuned...

Hey hey DinarVets! I was out yesterday and most of the day before with a bit of a bug - I didn't die, so I assume it's not Corona. Or maybe it was, and I beat it. Wouldn't surprise me. This is just going to be a brief post for today. I spent the weekend (before I was attacked by that bug) working on a deep-dive post regarding Iraq's Budget and CBI Auctions. I'll get that posted by tomorrow morning. To the present moment... we are looking at one of the craziest times in world news that we have ever seen. We may not have an actual health emergency on our hands - the plain old flu is more dangerous to the population, strictly by the numbers - but we certainly do have a financial crisis on our hands. The world, and the world markets, are treating the Corona Virus as if it were a full blown pandemic - so, whether it deserves to be treated that way or not - that's what we are dealing with. OIL is down to about $30. BTC leapt off the cliff and plummeted to $6000, wiping out all the recent gains. Stocks... don't even get me started on the markets, I'm just thankful @Pitcher has been willing to share thoughts over the last few updates! It hasn't been pretty. Iraq is vulnerable to all of these things, just like the rest of the world - and on top of that, they are dealing with a Prime Minister issue. In spite of all that... guess who's not going anywhere? Iraq, you, and me. We aren't going anywhere. Especially not in public without some kind of contraption on our faces I'm really short on time today, so I'm going to get this posted for now. Stay tuned for the update on the Auctions and the Budget - I just need to proof it once more and it will be up. OSI members, I'm a day behind regarding that last notice we were discussing. I'll be following up on that one shortly as well. Thanks for your patience! Talk soon! - Adam

🤣🤣🤣🤣 I think I'm gonna need a bottle of Vodka. Or two. And that's just to get over the headache I now have. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I have to say, I am loving this President more and more! Indy

Great post! Thank you for the research and the time it took to break it down and write it up!

Got this from the article in the link. ”Devaluation: It is the devaluation of the official exchange rate of that currency against an international reference currency, as the number of units of foreign currency that can be obtained against a unit of the national currency decreases, but in the case of Iraq, this is intended to reduce the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar American, which differs from the low exchange rate (Depreciation) subject to the mechanism of supply and demand in the market.” Is interesting that Dr. Ali Mohsen, CBI Governor is talking about reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar. Go RV

Thank you keylime, I’m going to do some fishing and staring at the water.

Thats what we all love about you Chuck. Keep the positive vibe going.

I posted last week Kim Clement said 20,000. Observe the stock market. and when it seems it's at it's worst. Then SUDDENLY! Today that was the quote. "The worst one day decline in it's history." I'm watching the countdown to 20,000 Then....

The central bank issues new instructions for loans in excess of one billion dinars The Central Bank of Iraq http://economy-news.net/content.php?id=19280 Economy News - Baghdad: The Central Bank of Iraq issued new instructions for loans in excess of one billion dinars. A statement of the bank received by "Al-Iqtisad News" stated that "with the aim of moving the wheel of the Iraqi economy and supporting productive projects, the Central Bank of Iraq issued new instructions concerning loans that exceed one billion dinars within the initiative (one trillion dinars) to finance small and medium projects." The statement added that "one of the most prominent things included in the instructions is that the financing period become (10) years as a maximum, and that the time limit does not exceed (3) years, while the interest of the Central Bank will be (2%) annually (decreasing) and calculated from the date the amount goes down in The bank account, and to be paid within the monthly installment deducted from the bank, while the interest of the bank (the financing owner) will be (2%) annually as a maximum. The Central Bank of Iraq instructed in its instructions to "not allow the financing of the project that was previously funded from the same initiative as the determination of the lending and delinquency period is subject to the reliance on the submitted feasibility study and the opinion of the committee concerned with this type of financing." The Central Bank emphasized that "the credit study of the bank must include all administrative commissions that the bank collects from the customer and are listed in the bank commissions list starting from the date of opening the account and until the funding is granted to him, taking into account that they are one-time throughout the financing period and the committee has the right to reduce the amounts from them." . Number of views 76 Date added 12/03/2020

In other news. Lassie said that Timmy fell in the well! 😀

I lost a couple days this week, woke up at 3AM and felt great. I needed a couple hours to catch up!

This morning you should see why I took the time to comment here - didn't want you to feel like your work is in vain.

FYI everyone - that longer post I mentioned? About the Budget and Auctions?

Enjoy your time away and thank you for all of your insightful posts. Here's to knowing our blessing is soon nigh!

Sources: The President of the Republic sets a "final" deadline for submitting a candidate for prime minister Policy , 03/12/2020 17:22 Baghdad - Iraq today: Well-informed Iraqi political sources said on Thursday that President Barham Salih had given the Shiite blocs until next Monday to agree on a new candidate for prime minister. And quoted an "informed" political source that "Iraqi President Barham Saleh gave the Shiite political blocs until next Monday, to agree on the nomination of a new prime minister for Iraq so that he could assign him." He added that, "Saleh sent during the past two days to the Shiite leaders concerned with the nomination of a new prime minister, a message urging them the importance of reaching a candidate no later than next Monday, which is the end of the constitutional deadline of two weeks to assign a new candidate." The source quoted Saleh as affirming his "clear" assertion in his letter that "the end of the constitutional deadline means a constitutional violation that cannot be justified under any pretext, in addition to that article 76 of the constitution gives the president of the republic the nomination of whom he deems appropriate, regardless of the largest number of parliamentary bloc." The source pointed out that “the president of the republic, to whom the constitution offers this option, may resort to it because he takes into account two basic issues. The first is that the position is from the share of the Shiite component, and therefore he does not want to be in any way a party to this conflict, and the second is that he takes into account the situation The complex composition of the Iraqi parliament that represents the different Iraqi ethnic, religious and sectarian components. He continued, saying, "Therefore, any candidate cannot gain confidence from within Parliament unless it is agreed upon within the Parliament itself, at a time when these blocs are witnessing a sharp division due to the repercussions of the political situation." He pointed out that “in light of the failure of the Shiite leaders and leaders to resolve its final position on this issue,” among the options presented in the event that the nomination of a new personality for the post was not reached, after the apology of the former commissioner, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, to reassign the resigned Prime Minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, In light of the semi-American-Iranian consensus. ” LINK

I would have to agree. It will get really crazy and Trump is about to bring the hammer.

They were sold out of the other things so I had to make due. Starr

Thanks Adam for a great explanation of the process. We just need to hang in there a little longer.

Thank you Adam for taking the time to provide us with this detailed explanation. Go RV!!

Great analysis Adam! Thank you for sharing that hard work! Sooner than later on the RV would be great!

Starr

"subject to the mechanism of supply and demand in the market.”..this should be talked about because supply n demand are what drive the value of the Iraqi dinar

https://cbi.iq/news/view/1463 Reducing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate - determinants and alternatives 12th March, 2020 » Reducing the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar - determinants and alternatives - ( a study by Mr. Ali Mohsen Ismail, Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq ) ... To see click here Page 2.... Reducing the value of the local currency (is the reduction of the official exchange rate for that currency against an international reference currency, where the number of units of foreign currency that can be obtained against a unit of the national currency decreases, but in the case of Iraq, this means reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar It differs from the low exchange rate (Depreciation) subject to the mechanism of supply and demand in the market if the relationship between devaluation and the reduction of the trade balance deficit and stimulation and the national economy is not a mechanical relationship, but rather a conditional relationship to many factors and determinants as is the experience of countries, then to reduce The currency in Iraq breaks down From trying to reduce the state’s public budget deficit due to the growth of expenditures at unprecedented rates, and that the factors and determinants in this case are more and broader, and the nature and content of their effects may differ, this stimulation may have adverse and negative effects, and the mode A rise in the paths of institutional weakness, and general turmoil, the devaluation of the currency has negative and multiplier effects over many times with you. The Author In this study reviews the dates of reducing the value of the local currency and which can not be reduced, the study concludes that the goal of reduction in the case of Iraq is to ease the budget of the General Budget (through the purchase of the dollar from the Ministry of Finance at a higher level). It is handled first to reform its statements and increase the revenues of the state and the control of non-productive expenses and treatment of many imbalances and the imagination of economic policies, trade and investment), as well as resorting to the option of reducing the value of the local currency and the investment of the current currency of the local currency is the following: 1. The case of the external sector (the balance of payments). The effect of reduction in the economic consumer. The implementation of the social categories of government. The above-incurrant government reduction. The reduction of the relevance of social support. 5 - The effect of reduction on confidence in the public currency. Page 3..... We review the nature and reality of factors mentioned in the case of cases 1. The external sector (balance of payments) Enjoy Iraq's strong position in the external sector (balance of payments). This is clearly adjusted by the rate of the rate: a 52% of GDP in the year 2019 and expected to continue at 2020 and beyond. = MEDE is the foreign reserve about about $ 0% billion - GDP, AIR 30% of the GDP, AIR 30% of the GDP, the reserve of the IMF and the United States of the International Monetary Service and the reserve of the reservoir. The reserve and the reserve of reserve. Reset when there is a clear and continuing deficit in the balance of payments, which is why a resort to the rewards of the local currency, which does not apply to the Iraqi currency in the near in accordance with the indicated indications 2 - The effect of the reduction on consumer prices: Auto The effect of the devaluation on consumer prices depends on the following points: the percentage of imports from domestic consumption. The higher this percentage, the greater the impact of the reduction, as is the case in Iraq, where it suffers from limited domestic production and a decrease in diversity and dependence. Mainly on DEE imports and Availability of Local Products - the effect of currency devaluation decreases whenever local alternatives are available for products that compensate for imports, a situation that does not apply to Iraq. The following table shows paragraphs of the CPI basket that are likely to be affected by devaluation Dinar, and The table indicates its weights in the basket, and the percentage of the importer from it, and from the table it appears that the dinar reduction is strained in the consumer basket, and on the assumption that the dinar is reduced by 30% and on the assumption that 50% of the goods are imported goods, consumer price inflation increases by 12.9%. Page 4 .... Core Inflation level, shower, and the effect of currency encryption is higher in countries where inflation is high, prisons drop their prices quickly and Iraq does not suffer from high incidence, but by relying on imports, the effect will be derived from this phenomenon OFF Level of devaluation of the local currency (Scale of Devaluation): If the level of devaluation is large, it will lead to a significant increase in the rate of inflation, especially if other factors do not help to curb inflation, but if the level of devaluation is a little, the delay in adjusting Prices from producers are possible to maintain stable market share and in case In Iraq, which depends on imports to meet its consumption needs, the devaluation of the currency is often quick and direct, whether the devaluation is low or high. OFF MODE 3 - The effect of currency devaluation on increasing growth and trade (Growth and Trade Effects. By devaluing its products locally, the level of the effect of devaluing the local currency depends on the components of exports, imports, and flexibility in the markets. (123) Page 5.... Authori's tests (especially the developing countries) and economic evasions have proved that the relationship between the reduction of the currency of the currency of the trade balance, the motivation of the national economy is not a mechanism. It is a conditional relationship with agents and determinants and conditions of each country, and that there are basic workers who are prevalent of the most important factors that determine the effectiveness of any exchange rate of any currency of the national curriculum (technology, financially, and buyer) The manufacture of imports of importance is the mainstream of the extent that is the most important of which have the most important of which have the most important of which have the most important of which have been identified. The current level of energy is the mainstream of nationality, which is determined to provide the effectiveness of any otherwise the most important of which have been identified. The current level of nationality of nationality is a major quality, the most important of the importance of goods and the construction of imports of importance of the exchange of the currency, which is determined to ensure that the local currency is the same as the country's extent that the relationship between importance is the extent that the standard of importing the value of the mainland, which is determined to ensure that the local currency is a small quality and the revenue of the export of the exchange of exports in the exports of crimes and crude for the exports, and the extent that the exports are of Iraq's excellent and this is a result of the reduction of imports of capital. On the social catastrophears to the government in the case of Iraq, the number of staff, retirees and the funding of the Social Protection Network is about 6 million mandates, taking into account the two women (at 5,800 members of the latter of the most of the most vulnerability to Iraq than what they meet from the salaries of government and the government. We are a point to the main capacity of the exposure of specific widespread and the mitigation of the government's salaries, the maximum of the government's expenses, the relevance of the government's mainstream and the comprehensive salaries, the reduction of the basis of public finalization, the reduction of the value of the final off of the local public off. The reduction of government expenses for support through the general distribution system may be amended by the card distance and the command of the card will be reduced to the citizens, which in order to ensure the power of the purchasing power of the citizens of the cash, the contribution of the cultivation of the citizens recipient of those who are citizenship, which in the case of Iraq does not currently hold a regenerated amount. Page 6... The Effect of Recommendation on Debt When the country is our religion and payables in the currency of the country of the country, the debt of the debate of the State shall be increased in the country's national budget. Their deficit is being allocated in a different currency in the country. In the case of the national debt and benefits of its national work, the reduction of its reinforcement of its national work is made by the country. The $ 64 billion diligence is the border of the Dinar), the dune of the Dinars ($ 103 billion). The donation of the duration of the Dinar) is $ 409 billion. The donation of the Dinar is a number of $ 2 billion Dollars. The current allocation will be blowing $ 5 billion. $ 1. 182 dinars at $ 5. 9 trillion dinars. In the case of reducing the currency Diseases by 20%, For example, the annual amount of the year to 7.5 Trillion Dinars per year. Domestic debt without blood change, raid with money, reasons for lowering the basket’s value, water imports from the government from converting dollar oil revenues into dinars, in addition to other effects, which raises with it the domestic product, and the ratio of the gross domestic debt is affected as a result. However, this God does not exceed 2 % Decrease in the ratio of public debt to GDP (in the case of Iraq according to the amounts mentioned above, as the public debt is the debts of government banks (transfers M) and the central bank treasury transfers), the devaluation of the currency will lead to a decrease in the value of the debts of banks and the central bank against the dollar. Reduction in s The value of the local currency, i.e. the value of the assets of those banks, is denominated in dollars, and the central bank reserves are affected, as the finance ministry is actually repaid to the central bank in dollars (from the Ministry’s debts and the MODE is calculated in dinars in dinars according to the official exchange rate, thus preserving its reserves, but in If the currency is depreciated, the Ministry of Finance pays a lower amount of the dollar according to the new lower price, which affects the reserves by the new low. Page 7.... The impact of the devaluation on local currency confidence: The devaluation of the national currency can undermine confidence in the national currency in the absence of structural reforms, and general instability, and the more inflationary pressures (with a speed of د local currency devaluation), the greater the pressure on demand for the dollar Weak appetite for creations in the local currency and the conversion to foreign currency, and pressure increases on the price of o an exchange that causes increased demand for currency substitution and disposal of local currency, as speculation in the exchange market increases. The exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar linked to the US dollar is stable For years, and to enhance and sustain confidence, it requires officials to make additional efforts to explain the reasons, justifications, with the aim of changing the exchange rate, and to give signals by following a discreet policy to control the exchange rate, where negative expectations can occur and confidence in the local currency is weak; if it becomes clear that the currency devaluation It occurs whenever the authorities encounter financial difficulties (C) and the financial management of the market. (.) The following the tools for the extent possible, the basis for the relevance of inflation. The evaluation of the exchange of the inflation. The evaluation of the exchange of expenses and the increase in the rate of inflation. In the case of Iraq, the tools of the cash on the growth of inflation can be a reversely influence of the influence of the publication of the public currency [General] (Mainland) The revenue of the exchange rate of $ 18.9 Round of the exchange rate of $ 6. 9 trillion dinars, During the reduction of the exchange rate of the ratio of oil crimes Oil, In the case of reduction of the dinar by the price of the ratio of oil crimes Oil, In the case of reduction of the dinar by the price of the ratio of oil crimes Oil, In the case of reduction of the dinar by the price of the ratio of oil crimes Oil, In the case of reduction of the dinar by the price of the ratio of oil crimes Oil, In the case of reduction of the dinar by the price of 9. 9 trillion dinars, During the revenue of the exchange rate of 9.9 Round. (9) 6.) Page 8.... 29. 8 trillion dinars in the case of reduction of the dinar by 30%, and the non-oil revenue is supposed to be brought by 0.1 trillion dinars, 0 trillion tirers for reduction (10% and 30% respectively). Expenditure can be seen significantly, the assumption that the government is able to control the item is the most of the most of the goods and services - external religion benefits - external rebels' interests - Investment and external contributions - Oil-related investments - (China Most imports) Is a total of 122 trillion dinars in the case of reduction of 10% and total of 130 trillion dinars in the case of 30% reduction in the amount of origin of 118 trillion dinars (increase of the reduction of the dinar exchange rate) that the net effect of 2020 (according to the rate of randomization) and is a positive impact of the (2) trillion oriented, and (8) 48% of the trillion or a. (6%) and the 30% of the following: 0% OFR FORD MANDE DEBAL DUBAL DHA% (30% and 30%) Budget and the effect of the amounts Page 9 graph Page 10.... On the table Auto and the mounting price of the US $ 76 per barrel and export rate is calculated at 8.380 million barrels per day, the calculations that pay in dollars are corresponding to the dinar by the exchange rate dinar in the reduction rate of the dinar's value of 10% and 30% of the expenses that are payable in the dinar, although expected inflation is due to the reduction of the value of the dinar will lead to the rise of those expenses, especially since the higher expenditure is payroll, wages and retirement that the salary law is annually annually. The level of inflation is the level of inflation, which will reduce the positive impact of fulfillment of the high level of inflation 2 and applies to the salary of the social protection network Page 11 ... It is possible to apply the methodology for measuring the impact of the value of the national currency for any year of the state's general budget years when testing potential balls in the case of thinking about currency devaluation and in light of the estimated figures for the general budget for these target years 1 - The devaluation of the Iraqi dinar at the present time is not an urgent need For reasons - the reserve position of foreign currencies is highly adequate in accordance with international standards, at a rate of more than 30% of GDP, and the surplus in the revised current account has achieved a surplus of 5% of GDP in 2019, and is expected to continue E in the year 2020 and beyond. B - That the monetary and financial policies are unable to take adequate measures to curb | Inflationary pressures resulting from the devaluation of the local currency exchange rate due to the ineffectiveness of the two policy tools, political, economic and financial reasons, which causes security, political, social and economic instability due to the nature of the behavior of the financial, banking and private sector: the decision to reduce the value of the national currency in unstable conditions is a decision that has negative effects Doubling and creates expectations for further devaluation, confusing market conditions and increasing demand for foreign currency with weak confidence in the national currency The reduction of the local currency value to the inflationary pressures, most of the citizens bear their negative impacts due to the lowest powerful citizenship. He also confirmed as the two majority: First: the adoption of the majority of citizens to meet their salaries and wages from the government, the reduction of the currency is a tax that will be able to enter (by inflation) unless the government increases the salaries and wages to counter inflation, the compensation of the exchange rate of the exchange rate and the retirement of the exchange rate of exchange of staff and the retirees are not exceeding the salaries of exchange rate of employment and retirees, the salaries of government exchange of employment, the rewards of the exchange rate and the retirees are not exceeding the 60% trillion Dinars: The citizens who have suffered government support through the network of social protection, because the government has increased the basis of the basis of the purchase of their purchase, [The premium and the result of the government and the result of the basis of the basis of the purchase of the pre-citizens, the adoption of Iraq to the revenue in the most of its needs Consumer Page 12 .... The direction of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar from the government or parliament is to attempt to cover the budget deficit of the State because of the weakness of the expenses of the public and failure to maximize non-oil revenues and is an option that is easy to time as the dangers of the imbalance and the budgetary financial discipline and the re-construction of the State budget is in the framework of the overall macroeconomic requirements and in the light of the extent of the financial policy and the purely policy, in light of the extensive opportunities of the State of the country's powerful and the intention to maximize the current relevant access to the revenue of the state of the state of the country of the government, "In addition to the extent of the extent of the necessary financial statements, the light of the necessary financial and financial policy, in light of the extent of the financial and policy of the financial statements in the framework of the requirements of financial and policy, in light of the extent of the financial and policy of the financial statements, the light of the necessary financial and policy in the framework of the requirements of financial and policy, in light of the extensive financial and policy requirements, in light of the extensive opportunities of the State of the country's powerful and the intention of mandate the basis of the country's access to the country's current financial and the investigation of the budget of the State of the State, which is suffering from the most important of which the most likely the most important of which the most likely, the purpose of this policy is the need to do, and the reduction of its goal at the level required as where is the need to do the following, the relevant preparatory budget in the framework of the requirements of financial mutuality and in the light of the broader and policy of the financial statements, in light of the extensive opportunities for the financial statements and the intention of mandate the opportunity of the State of the State of the State and the intention (translation problem above so ignore repitition thanks) The real sector (industrial and agricultural) is low, and the percentage of its contribution to gross domestic production does not exceed 5%, and Iraq's exports (other than oil) are very limited and do not constitute any percentage in the trade balance, and the advancement of the industrial and agricultural sectors will take many years with effective plans and policies Usually, the value of the local currency is depreciated in countries that have high export capabilities, and customs policy is ineffective at the present time and is the first line of defense and the basis for protecting domestic products to stimulate production. Anarchy of imports, loss of control and control of border crossings, counterfeiting and counterfeiting Ed and smuggling, which causes the Iraqi market to be tolerated and flooded with cheap goods that curb attempts to advance local production, and before resorting to the option of reducing the value of the dinar, these conditions should be corrected so as to ensure the application of customs laws, protect the local product, fight dumping, and protect the consumer. ( 5 - Since the goal of the reduction is realistically aimed at improving the financial position of the government, and filling the public budget deficit due to the continuous escalation of budget expenditures, before resorting to the option of reducing the value of the dinar, exhaustion of other solutions has been shown by digital analysis as However, the reduction does not achieve the goal of bridging the budget deficit except by a very small amount that is not comparable to the many negative effects that have been clarified and are available at a value that is much greater than what can be obtained from the devaluation, and that other solutions have achieved corrective, structural goals that provide financial sustainability, and have Positive effects, economic, financial and social, for example, not limited to, we refer to some aspects or rounds Page 13.... Waste in state resources, which if placed in the proper framework and in the framework of efficiency and economic, it achieves a great boom for the general financial conditions 20 billion = = e and it uses refineries to produce oil derivatives, and the Ministry of Electricity (Electricity Production) up to one million barrels of oil, its value Market (in the global market) and increases dollars (equivalent to 23 trillion dinars), compared to that the government treasury receives less than 10% of the said amount. . The value of annual imports is about 50 billion dollars. Revenue from customs duties on these imports is estimated (6) to (8) trillion dinars annually, while the percentage of receipts does not reach 10% of the assumed fee amounts! . The annual allocations to support losing public sector companies, and the grants allocated to self-funded entities (according to their laws), amount to more than (4) trillion dinars annually, direct tax revenue 2. 5 trillion dinars, or 1% to the gross domestic product, while the rate of direct tax revenue to the gross domestic product in the Arab countries is 7%, and it is worth noting that these low revenues are not due to the low tax rates in Iraq but rather as a result of the failure of the tax apparatus - all its corruption and rampant corruption The lost amounts are difficult to pin down, but they are definitely trillions of dinars. The Ministry of Finance possesses a huge balance of real estate (lands, buildings, agricultural lands), and then recently inventory of what can be rented or sold by up to 7 trillion (during the year 2020) and more than that in subsequent years the bill of salaries and wages in the year 2020 is about 52 trillion dinars, or 85% of oil revenues (after excluding the allocations of licensing contracts), an increase of (8) trillion dinars for the year 2019 and an increase of (16) trillion dinars for the year 2017. These increases and spikes in the salary item threaten the state’s finances, as well as they do not Achieve any additional value other than emptying the state’s budget from achieving important and necessary development goals. This growth in increasing these expenses is greater than any devaluation of the dinar 6 - stabilization of heartbreak plays an important role in foreign investment flows, and gives the option of resorting to the exchange rate whenever conditions of government spending are required, which gives a negative signal to investors

I have always looked for Breitling's Posts about this and thought of him as well grounded. Jeff seems to also have come back on track after his screw up of calling it last year. Now this Pimpy seems well grounded and has thought this thing out to the point of putting other guru's and those with the Codes to the global gold back reset to shame. Seems a lot of folks are going back to the Religious Prophesies from years ago and Kim Clement.....Only a couple weeks to go and then what are they all going to say if it doesn't happen this time? Karsten

Reducing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate - determinants and alternatives -https://cbi.iq/news/view/1463 Reducing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate - determinants and alternatives - (A study by Mr. Ali Mohsen Ismail, Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq) ... To see it, click here https://cbi.iq/static/uploads/up/file-158401047993178.pdf

This was sent to me by a friend. I thought I would share it with the board. From a medical point of view she is spot on. It is a bit sobering and a bit terrifying. This is why the markets are reacting. P.S. My heart aches for Italy. From a American lady in Bergamo: “Some friendly info for my fellow Americans. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am passing this on because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today. If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy. I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions” or what the American President is saying that a week ago he was expecting it to go to zero. There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms. When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse. Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left? On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse. Read this again. There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there? And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment. You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time. And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago. Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

That is terrible. I’m glad you are hanging in there. I’ll bet you are listening to a lot of music. Hope it all works out soon for Italy.

American organization chief: Washington's response to the Taji attack will be harsh Politics 03/2020 22:05 54 Baghdad today - Baghdad Engineer Tom Harb, director of the American Middle East Alliance for Democracy, said today, Thursday, that the United States of America will not stand idle about the missile attacks it is facing, especially what happened to the Taji military base yesterday evening Wednesday. " The Americans believe that the missiles used in the Taji attack are of Iranian manufacture, and the Iraqi Shiites have nothing to do with the attack on the Taji base ," Tom said, while hosting the "Point of View" program , presented by Dr. Nabil Jassim. Regarding the bombing of military bases that included Iraqi parties in the area, the Syrian Albukamal, yesterday night, and its relationship to the attack on Taji, he said, "We do not believe that the Albukamal strike came in response to the Taji attack." He expected that "the American response will be harsh and target a faction affiliated with the popular crowd," according to his words, and he considered that "the Iraqi government is innocent of the attack." On the possibility of US ground intervention, he said, "The American President, Donald Trump does not want American forces on the ground." LINK

God is picking them off one by one. Thanks Synopsis

I have been a fan of Breitling for awhile now. I think he’s pretty grounded and offers some great information. He said he would have another video this week so it will be interesting to hear what he has to say about the current situation.