Iraq inflation falls to 6.9%

[krome2ez]

Iraq inflation falls to 6.9%

By REUTERS

Published: Nov 22, 2011 12:35 Updated: Nov 22, 2011 12:35

BAGHDAD: Iraq's core annual rate of inflation fell to 6.9 percent in October from 7.3 percent in September, driven mainly by a dip in the cost of food items, a central bank official said on Tuesday.

A fall in the cost of clothes and industrial items also helped lower inflation last month, central bank Deputy Gov. Mudher Kasim told Reuters by telephone.

"It is a good decrease, the trend is declining," he said.

Core inflation excludes expenditure on fuel.

Iraq is slowly trying to rebuild as it recovers from decades of war and economic sanctions. Its economy is dominated by oil, which accounts for around 95 percent of government revenue.

Finance Minister Rafie Al-Esawi said in September Iraq aimed to keep inflation at 5 percent in 2012.

Another central bank deputy governor, Ahmed Al-Buraihi, said in June that the country's core annual inflation rate was not expected to exceed 7 percent in 2011.

http://arabnews.com/economy/article537123.ece

[redsand]

Iraq inflation falls to 6.9%

By REUTERS

Published: Nov 22, 2011 12:35 Updated: Nov 22, 2011 12:35

BAGHDAD: Iraq's core annual rate of inflation fell to 6.9 percent in October from 7.3 percent in September, driven mainly by a dip in the cost of food items, a central bank official said on Tuesday.

A fall in the cost of clothes and industrial items also helped lower inflation last month, central bank Deputy Gov. Mudher Kasim told Reuters by telephone.

"It is a good decrease, the trend is declining," he said.

Core inflation excludes expenditure on fuel.

Iraq is slowly trying to rebuild as it recovers from decades of war and economic sanctions. Its economy is dominated by oil, which accounts for around 95 percent of government revenue.

Finance Minister Rafie Al-Esawi said in September Iraq aimed to keep inflation at 5 percent in 2012.

Another central bank deputy governor, Ahmed Al-Buraihi, said in June that the country's core annual inflation rate was not expected to exceed 7 percent in 2011.

http://arabnews.com/economy/article537123.ece

Lets not confuse this with disinflation. It could be that and it would not necessarily be bad.

[Anti This Anti That]

If people would stop listening to these pumpers and buying the Iraqi dinar, they would RV, but as long as people are buying the dinars, they will live off the US dollar.

[redsand]

LET ME ADD THIS - I DID SOME FURTHER RESEARCH TO ADD TO MY POINT.

In some cases, a country's monetary policy may be specifically trying to produce a disinflation situation. This is true especially if leaders are worried about the possibility in inflation getting out of hand. The most common way to produce disinflation is to raise interest rates. This makes money harder to get through borrowing and thus increases the value of the currency. With this being the case, the relative value of the money begins to increase and is therefore capable of buying more products. In general, the goal is to encourage disinflation to the point where inflation is at a healthy rate, which is generally from 3 to 4 percent, but depends on a number of factors.

[Perspective2011]

A lower inflation rate could help with the temporary 3-4% increase caused by an RV. Take the current inflation of 6.9% and add the estimated 3-4% increase and it would peak out between 10-11% which was the CBI's inflation ceiling. Not sure how long the increase lasts but it keeps it from getting too high allowing time to taper back off.

To me it could be a good thing to pad the temporary increase caused by an RV. I feel that we have more than just inflation riding on the RV. If inflation was the only deciding factor then there is no benefit to Iraq's citizens, merchants, investors, world status, etc...

[redsand]

A lower inflation rate could help with the temporary 3-4% increase caused by an RV. Take the current inflation of 6.9% and add the estimated 3-4% increase and it would peak out between 10-11% which was the CBI's inflation ceiling. Not sure how long the increase lasts but it keeps it from getting too high allowing time to taper back off.

To me it could be a good thing to pad the temporary increase caused by an RV. I feel that we have more than just inflation riding on the RV. If inflation was the only deciding factor then there is no benefit to Iraq's citizens, merchants, investors, world status, etc...

Exactly - it isn't the deciding factor if there was an RV. However, seeing disinflation shows something is going on with their financial system.

[Carrello]

Redsand, thank you for the additional information. It seems the higher interest rates would not only keep the inflation down, but would also deflect a temporary inflation spike when an RV takes place, and this timing works.

Are the stars aligning?

[easyrider]

A lower inflation rate could help with the temporary 3-4% increase caused by an RV. Take the current inflation of 6.9% and add the estimated 3-4% increase and it would peak out between 10-11% which was the CBI's inflation ceiling. Not sure how long the increase lasts but it keeps it from getting too high allowing time to taper back off.

To me it could be a good thing to pad the temporary increase caused by an RV. I feel that we have more than just inflation riding on the RV. If inflation was the only deciding factor then there is no benefit to Iraq's citizens, merchants, investors, world status, etc...

absolutely agree with your analysis the time is NOW for them to RV.

[captl1]

It gives Shabibi room to manuver for the RV. That small drop in inflation allows for the difference that the RV will create. No reason to worry. IMO

[Perspective2011]

Exactly - it isn't the deciding factor if there was an RV. However, seeing disinflation shows something is going on with their financial system.

"...driven mainly by a dip in the cost of food items..."

I read an article earlier this month where Iraq was banning all vegetable imports as of November 7th. I was expecting the inflation rate to drop because of the ban. Recent articles have talked about how food has been a contributing factor to the inflation rise. According to the article it pointed out that this will enable Iraq to achieve food security.

Excerpts:

"The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture began implementing the cabinet's ban on imports of all vegetables on Monday (November 7th). "

"These decisions are in the best interest of Iraqi farmers and have a major impact on development of the agricultural sector, enabling the country to achieve food security," Kareem told Mawtani. "

Source: http://www.mawtani.com/cocoon/iii/xhtml/en_GB/features/iii/features/iraqtoday/2011/11/09/feature-02

[Papster]

absolutely agree with your analysis the time is NOW for them to RV.

hey easy.......not to get off topic........but have you heard anything from Franks camp lately.....thanks.......GO DINAR

[easyrider]

hey easy.......not to get off topic........but have you heard anything from Franks camp lately.....thanks.......GO DINAR

Yea Frank still feels strongly for December the troops are leaving by the 7th early December shabbs needs a cushion to Rv the currency to go into 2012 and to have it DONE by Iraq's fiscal calendar year which starts Jan. 1 2012 hope that helps

Edited November 22, 2011 by easyrider

[redsand]

Redsand, thank you for the additional information. It seems the higher interest rates would not only keep the inflation down, but would also deflect a temporary inflation spike when an RV takes place, and this timing works.

Are the stars aligning?

I think they are aligning - the hints of something happening?

*First month of disinflation

*Currency auctions starting to become less predictable

*Currency news that are contradicting each other in less than 3 hours apart.

Keep on keeping on!

[wpsmit]

"...driven mainly by a dip in the cost of food items..."

Excerpts:

"The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture began implementing the cabinet's ban on imports of all vegetables on Monday (November 7th). "

"These decisions are in the best interest of Iraqi farmers and have a major impact on development of the agricultural sector, enabling the country to achieve food security," Kareem told Mawtani. "

Well they could just quit feeding anyone, that should bring the inflation down!

[Perspective2011]

Well they could just quit feeding anyone, that should bring the inflation down!

You just gave them an idea! Surprised they didn't try that already.

[Carrello]

I think they are aligning - the hints of something happening?

*First month of disinflation

*Currency auctions starting to become less predictable

*Currency news that are contradicting each other in less than 3 hours apart.

Keep on keeping on!

And I thought last December was crazy! I can handle crazy as long as there is a good outcome, and I think we are there. Last December was nuts, but so much real policy and progress has been made, that this December is very different, and in a good way.

Deflation: my new mantra.

[Ricksterman]

If people would stop listening to these pumpers and buying the Iraqi dinar, they would RV, but as long as people are buying the dinars, they will live off the US dollar.

I wondered that myself. I see your location is Alabama but you photo has a Texas flag. I'm guessing you are a Texan

[redsand]

J.F. -

What you highlighted was for September. October is 6.9%

Thanks for your points. IF 6.9 % is accurate, that shows DISINFLATION not INFLATION. I never said deflation. There are slight differences when you add the DIS-

[doesntbreakeasy]

I wondered that myself. I see your location is Alabama but you photo has a Texas flag. I'm guessing you are a Texan

Sorry, look again it is THE STARS AND STRIPES with the beginning of the Constitution over it. Exactly what we need to get back to!!!

[Carrello]

Well they could just quit feeding anyone, that should bring the inflation down!

That plan was implemented years ago. It has been working for a few, and extremely detrimental for hordes of others.

[redsand]

OH DODO! Don't let my wife know I made that mistake. :lol:

I am always telling her to pay attention to every little detail, she'll never let me live it down.

Agree with the DISinflation though, just don't buy it.

I'll buy it when it rv's.

[TFK]

If people would stop listening to these pumpers and buying the Iraqi dinar, they would RV, but as long as people are buying the dinars, they will live off the US dollar.

The dinar will continue to sell, up to, and beyond the RV. It's a currency! The fact it's still selling won't affect the RV in any way.

By the way... they aren't selling dinar at the CBI auctions. Please understand that. The CBI is buying dinar for US dollars from local Iraqi banks so that they can bolster their reserves, therefore strengthening the banking system. They also use this auction method to help control inflation and stabalize the value of the dinar at it's set rate.

They get plenty of billions of USD from their oil sales. The people and government of Iraq will stop using the dollar for medium/large purchases when their dinars are actually worth something. That is coming SOON!

[fastarnie]

And I thought last December was crazy! I can handle crazy as long as there is a good outcome, and I think we are there. Last December was nuts, but so much real policy and progress has been made, that this December is very different, and in a good way.

Deflation: my new mantra.

Funny, cause last year it was all about seating the government. 1 year later still no GOI. Lot of progress has been made though since 6-11 and the releasing of the dfi funds. This year has been the most exciting for me in this investment.

[HawaiianGal]

Cost of food is coming down because the holidays are over. They always spike food prices just before a major holiday. I think that's all it is.

[redsand]

Cost of food is coming down because the holidays are over. They always spike food prices just before a major holiday. I think that's all it is.

What holiday did they buy food for?