Dinar News Analysis of

[Enorrste]

Here is what I sent by email to many of you and now reveal to all. Thanks to 98knight for passing it along. I only wish that the attribution to me had come along with it. How it did not I do not know but I do know that the person who brought it over here realized the error and attempted to correct it within the thread. Enough on that.

Analysis of

[Enorrste]

I will also repeat here briefly what this article has told us:

Iraq has announced that sometime during the next several months but before the end of this year all large denomination notes will be removed from their currency. In their place will be smaller denomination notes. The purpose for doing this is to make it easier for the people to do transactions and for them to carry LESS money. Both will remain legal tender throughout this process, so there is no lop, period. If there were to be a lop, one currency would become void and would be replaced with the other. Instead, the large denominations will be phased out over the next several months but will remain legal tender. In order for stated purpose number 2 above to work, there MUST be a revaluation of the IQD. This is the plain sense of statement number 2. If there were not a revaluation, then the people would be carrying MORE money, not less!

Therefore we see that the RV has now been announced publically and that it will occur shortly. Iraq has furthermore stated that it is ready for this move now and is prepared to draw in the large denomination notes over up to 10 months.

Now we are able to place this information into context with the discussion that we started at the beginning of this post. Recall above that the UN made the requirement to Iraq as follows:

“4. Calls upon the Government of Iraq to put in place the necessary action plan and timeline by 1 April 2010 and to ensure the timely and effective transition to a post-Development Fund mechanism by 31 December 2010.”

Now we see that the plan announced by the CBI on February 6 is the very “action plan and timeline” that the UN has required in the paragraph above!

Furthermore, we see that Iraq has complied with the UN requirement prior to the April 1 deadline imposed by the UN. We also see that the “redenomination” announced this month by the CBI also complies with the UN requirement for a “timely and effective transition” out of the DFI by the end of this year.

Finally, we now can place the redenomination and removal of the large notes by the end of this year into context with the UN requirements and see that the redenomination “action plan” is intended to comply with the UN requirements exactly.

We are now in a position to discuss Chapter 7 and the revaluation of the IQD and how they may be related to each other.

First, we need to note that Chapter 7 and the RV are intimately related to each other and cannot stand alone. I believe that I am the first person to state this unequivically. I can do so based on the information posted just above. Put more succinctly, the RV is a “condition” (action plan) placed on Iraq by the UN to facilitate removal from Chapter 7.

Therefore we can conclude with absolute assurance that the RV MUST occur prior to release from Chapter 7. We can do this because we know that the “action plan” and “effective transition” IS the RV and redenomination as stated by the CBI on February 6, and that both are part of the conditions necessary BEFORE Chapter 7 will be removed.

You all may recall that I said during the last several weeks that what Iraq would need is the “assurance” that they would get released in order for them to do the RV. We see now that this “assurance” has in fact been given and that it is also a “condition” that the RV must occur in order for Maliki to get out from Chapter 7.

We can now safely dispense with any further discussion of Chapter 7 since our interest is in our investment and the RV. The RV is a necessary precursor to the release from Chapter 7, therefore making Chapter 7 inconsequential to our investment objective. I believe that I am also the first person to have made this determination and to have laid it out clearly for all to digest.

We are now in a position to ask the most important question of all: When will the RV take place?

Based upon the analysis I have provided above, and the fact that the RV is an integral part of the “necessary” actions that need to be taken by Iraq to gain release from Chapter 7, we can conclude with assurance that the RV is the next step to be taken by the GOI.

You will rightly ask, “How can you conclude that with such assurance?” The answer is to be found in the paragraphs above: the RV is the “action plan” required from the UN!

Finally, we can also conclude that the RV will take place in short order. How, you ask? The answer is to be found in the actions of Maliki himself. He has been pushing and shoving the UN for nearly a year now to get out from Chapter 7. His “action plan” is a part of that process of pushing and shoving. And the “implementation” of that action plan, namely the RV, is the next step toward getting removal from Chapter 7.

In conclusion, then, we see that rather than the RV being the “carrot” that Maliki has been holding out to the UN to get release from Chapter 7, it is in fact a significant element in the “action plan” that he is REQUIRED to perform before the end of this year to gain release from Chapter 7.

We may now rest assured that the RV will occur in the very near future. In my opinion it will still happen before the election. This is politically expedient for Maliki, to say the least. But if it does not occur before the election it will certainly have to occur immediately after the election since Maliki will want to have his “action plan” (the RV) in place PRIOR to Ban Ki-Moon’s quarterly report to the UN on April 1.

Special thanks goes to Sandy040 for asking a very relevant question: “Can someone explain section 4?” Her question led me to investigate this section rather than pooh pooh it as an “old article”. Thank you, Sandy!

Steve

[THJ]

Excellant!!!! This is very well done and no BS. Your in depth study is invaluable to a fact based understanding of the entire picture. Time constraints and resources often keep us from doing this type of indepth study. I for one thank you for relieving the stress of the waiting game we are all playing. I look forward to your future analysis of this ever changing situation.

[Doug A]

Thank you!!!

[braywilkins]

E..............Your are the best; I know how much work this is for you. Thank you for sharing. Any thoughts on price?

[DINARMONSTER]

Thanks again enorrest! Toledo!

[LC460]

I look forword to seeing your articles every morning because i know it will contain useful information about our investment in the Iraqi Dinars. Thank you very much.

[edgoza]

can anyone tell me what is the average iraqui monthly income? by the way good analysis!!! Thank you.

[mrref]

Thanks job well done.... When this is all said and done I would love to meet up with you so I can shake your hand and buy you a steak diner.

[Mdautomotive]

Now finally I agree with someone else who can put things in proper order and read things for what they are. Good job with this study.

[kamm]

Ditto to what Mrref said. Great post. Keep them coming.

[TIM]

thanks earnest t !

[mitmoo]

Great post. I wonder though, why would the CBI make a public announcement of their plan?

[kaperoni]

My only thought is whether or not the RV needs to come before April 1st or after. This meeting in April may in fact, be the "sign off" and "go ahead" on the RV if Iraq has got everything in place, rather than after the RV meeting. IMO if we do not see the RV very soon by March 1, we can assume the RV will be post meeting on April 1st.

[Latishall]

I must say Thank you for this outstanding post. It was written in a way that even I could understand it!! Very much appreciated!!!

[Squaredaway]

I will also repeat here briefly what this article has told us:

Iraq has announced that sometime during the next several months but before the end of this year all large denomination notes will be removed from their currency. In their place will be smaller denomination notes. The purpose for doing this is to make it easier for the people to do transactions and for them to carry LESS money. Both will remain legal tender throughout this process, so there is no lop, period. If there were to be a lop, one currency would become void and would be replaced with the other. Instead, the large denominations will be phased out over the next several months but will remain legal tender. In order for stated purpose number 2 above to work, there MUST be a revaluation of the IQD. This is the plain sense of statement number 2. If there were not a revaluation, then the people would be carrying MORE money, not less!

Therefore we see that the RV has now been announced publically and that it will occur shortly. Iraq has furthermore stated that it is ready for this move now and is prepared to draw in the large denomination notes over up to 10 months.

Now we are able to place this information into context with the discussion that we started at the beginning of this post. Recall above that the UN made the requirement to Iraq as follows:

[jknox123]

"Finally" Some meat and Potato's backed up with solid research. Enorrste "Thank You" for doing your homework. I know the other's are doing the best they can but you went above and beyond and got to what I feel is the heart of the matter. "Well Done"

[Mesha]

What can I say?! I hope you will be rewarded 100 fold for all your work, time and patience in dealing with this investment and everyone in this particular grouping! Thank you from the heart! You're a good man with a great mind!

Edited February 19, 2010 by Mesha
Added some comments

[Enorrste]

mitmoo - this "plan" started in 2005 and was mentioned in 2006 and 2008 already. I posted those links in my book and again recently here. The most recent article from Radio Free Iraq interviewing Salih is just an expansion on the "plan" that has been evolving since those early days.

kaperoni - there is a slim possibility that the "plan" would be initiated on April 1 by Iraq, since that is the date by which it has to be put in place. However, COFE has also been instructed to audit the "plan" and report to the UNSC on the progress of the plan by April 1. Finally, we have already seen that the plan has been evolving since 2005 as noted just above. Therefore we can safely conclude the following: (1) the plan already exists, so it need not "start" on April 1; (2) Iraq has already announced the "meat and potatoes" of the plan, so to do so again on April 1 would be redundant; (3) COFE would not have anything to report on April 1 if the "plan" is not initiated until then. Therefore it is my considered opinion that the "kickoff" of the "plan" must be imminent.

Squaredaway - We learned from a previous article that there is a process involved that includes the RV first, AND THEN by the end of the year the removal of the large denom notes. Therefore they cannot place the horse behind the cart. The RV must occur first, and then time must be given to draw in the large notes. This was specifically stated to be the "process" in articles that I have already posted. Finally, regarding the imminence of the RV, as I just noted above to kaperoni, it is my opinion that they will do this very soon and most likely before the elections. I have said that because of the powerful push that Maliki will receive if he acts prior to the election. In addition I added that by doing so as early as this weekend then COFE will have something to audit for its April 1 meeting at the UN. At this point we are only a little over 2 weeks from the election and 5 weeks from April 1. Time is running out. If, on the off chance that they wait until April 1, there will be the problems that I just noted to kaperoni above. I cannot see this happening.

Incidentally, before chat tonight I will be posting an additional document on the connection between the IAMB and COFE and the specific regulations that are being applied from the IAMB "playbook" to allow COFE to audit the RV as opposed to its normal function of auditing DFI disbursements from oil revenues.

Steve

[eileen]

Thank you!! So much appreciated!

[woookiee]

Thanks a million dinars. I want to thank you for all your time and commitment in you article, Well written. Great job!!

[duke2b]

Enorrste,

From my understanding based on what I have read about the meeting with UN on Feb 16, The border issues and the debt owed to Kuwait from the 1990 invasion, still have to be resolved as part of this process.

Is it realistic to believe these issues will be resolved by the end of 2010?

You had no mention of this in your assessment.

Thanks for your hard work

[Enorrste]

All issues will be resolved by the end of the summer. Just yesterday Kuwait News announced that Iraq had published in its papers an appeal to all Iraqis to return whatever Kuwaiti documents or items that they were holding from the 1990 war. In addition, progress is being made on the money issues as well. I fully expect to see this completed by the end of summer as was promised by an Iraqi official earlier this month (sorry, don't have that link in front of me, but it is on the forum).

Steve

[audrey williams]

thank you for all your hard work

[audrey williams]

thank you for all the hard work....praying for a great rv