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Posted 15 July 2011 - 02:50 PM
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Edited by Poseidon, 15 July 2011 - 03:21 PM.
Posted 15 July 2011 - 03:29 PM
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Posted 15 July 2011 - 03:31 PM
Let me check.... No... Nobody is pointing a gun at your head ordering to read this.
Wow you are really bored... Proving a point that has been read and translated 50 different times 50 different ways. I understand your frustration, but this is a Rumor board... not a ***** session. Find some friends you can BLOG with and go there.... Weird I think this is the second time I have said that today! geeeeeeeeez
Edited by umbertino, 15 July 2011 - 03:32 PM.
Posted 15 July 2011 - 03:34 PM
Posted 15 July 2011 - 04:04 PM
FACING THE RUMOR REALITY
When I first invested in the Dinar more than three years ago, the likelihood of turning an investment of a little over $1,000 per million Dinars into a windfall profit of one million DOLLARS per million, (or as much as 3.86 million if I had been crazy enough to listen to the claims of Frank26, Terry K, Okie and others) seemed like an extremely remote possibility. However, after reading all of the hype available at the time, and listening to several friends who were absolutely certain that the revaluation of the Dinar was “imminent,” I figured that I had little to lose if it didn’t happen, and a great deal to gain if by some chance it did. Needless to say, the chances have appeared more and more remote as the years and RV dates have come and gone.
At the time, the banks and dealers were charging approximately $1,050 per million Dinars, or roughly 23% over the current market value of $853 per million. I knew that if this seemingly insane revaluation to more than 1,000 to 3,000 times its current value didn’t occur, it would likely cost at least another 23% to exchange my Dinars back to Dollars. A potential loss of 46% on the investment was painful, but doable considering the potential gain. That was way back in 2008.......sooooo many RV dates ago.
Today, dealers are charging as much as $1,250 per million Dinars, or roughly 47% above market value. Exchanging back to U.S. Dollars in the event a revaluation did not occur, would undoubtedly cost at least another 20% (probably more) making the total loss on a more recent investment at least 67%. Those who have listened to the pumper hype and purchased “small” denoms have paid far more.
At this point, I don’t think anyone can argue that the pumpers/liars have played a very significant role in the sale of BILLIONS upon BILLIONS of Dinars since the rumors began in 2004, with literally hundreds of “has-to-RV-by” dates having come and gone since, and new ones replacing each failed date as they pass uneventfully. Almost inexplicably, people continuing to believe each new lie as it is artfully created. The dealers, banks, e-bay sellers, etc. have made millions of Dollars in profits at our expense. The more lies created, the more money made by the dealers. The government of Iraq has been the very happy recipient of huge profits as they benefit from what are quite obviously very long term, interest-free “loans” from U.S. investors. Meanwhile we wait for years with no realistic end in sight, afraid to sell our Dinars, fearing that as soon as we do, the long-awaited RV will occur. Brilliant marketing!
A rational individual would wonder why on earth Iraq would continue to export billions of Dinars to the U.S. each month unrestricted if they had any intention of revaluing each of those Dinars, currently valued at 1/10 of a cent each to suddenly overnight being worth $1-$4 DOLLARS each. They couldn’t stop it all, but they could definitely stop most of it. If there’s a logical answer to this question, I’ve yet to hear it, despite having spent more than 3 years on these forums.
Starting about 18 months or so ago we began to see articles in Iraqi media discussing the possibility of “removing the three zeros” from the large notes. This began an immediate and very well managed debate regarding the dreaded “lop.” The gurus and pumpers successfully twisted the perceived meaning of the concept to convince nearly everyone that this involved a DE-valuing of the currency, and that this quite obviously could never happen……and very logically, it wouldn’t.
What they have played down is the fact that the real purpose of the removal of the three zeros was to simplify the financial industry to #1) make “counting” the currency MUCH easier, and #2) to instantly increase the value of the Dinar to be more on a par with the U.S. Dollar and surrounding countries. Obviously, to do this a new currency has to be designed and issued (partially due to agreements with the Kurds that their language be included), but primarily due to the fact that they currently have no small denominations. Given the fact that the Iraqi’s do not like to use coins, notes of ¼. ½, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and probably 100 would be required. The total cost of design and printing of the new Iraqi Dinar back in 2003 was approximately $150 million Dollars, INCLUDING all of the heavy military security measures required at the time to distribute and exchange the new currency.
I’ve seen many people argue that there is no way that Iraq can afford to design an entirely new currency, and that they would therefore merely add new lower denominations. This is absolutely laughable given the fact that cashing in a very small handful of U.S. investors at a rate of $1-3 per existing Dinar would cost far more than the $150 million cost of this new currency. Very simple math establishes that fact. The holdings of 3-4 investors of 30 million Dinars each would easily cover that expense. A new currency would clearly cost thousands of times less than a straight RV.
Given the abundance of articles and speeches of the past few months pertaining to the removal of the three zeros, it is clear that Iraq intends to initiate and complete this process sometime in the near future. HOWEVER, that being said, how much sense does it make that they would be talking about it so candidly if their intention was to revalue the Dinar PRIOR to issuing the new currency? Logically, there is absolutely no way they could afford to do that. Speculation has already been rampant over the past 7 years. Imagine the chaos if people were told and actually believed that the existing currency was suddenly going to have a new value thousands of times greater than its current value.
Doesn’t it make FAR more sense that they would issue a newly designed currency, with a NEW value of $1-$3 or so, simultaneously requiring that the old currency be exchanged for the new at equal value for a specified period of time? Until collected, the old notes would retain the same value as the new (minus the zeros). This would effectively result in an increase in value for the Dinar of anywhere between 18-250% - which would be a HUGE increase by ANY investment standards, and far more than any currency normally increases. It would NOT be a lop……merely a redenomination with a concurrent revaluation.
To believe that our $1,000 investment is suddenly going to be worth $1,000,000 to $4,000,000 seems more than a little bit irrational, particularly given the fact that Iraq currently has at least 24-27 TRILLION Dinars in circulation. Why would they give away tens of trillions of Dollars they don’t have to, when they can accomplish the same increase in value using this method? I still haven’t heard a reasonable explanation that makes as much sense as this one.
For those of us who paid $1,000 per million, at a $1 RV, we would roughly break even. Our profits would increase depending on what amount the RV turned out to be over and above $1, to as much as slightly over triple the original investment if the RV is over $3. Obviously those who paid more than $1,000 per million would lose a small amount, unless the RV is substantially more than $1.00. The higher the RV, the larger the profit percentage.
Based on the currently available information, this seems to me to be the only logical scenario for Iraq. One thing is certain. It is painfully obvious that the BS from the pumpers is just that……PURE BS. To believe the latest rumor that the IRS is opening “cash-in centers” for the exchange of IQD on July 16 is pure stupidity. The IRS is not a bank, and has no means or authority under U.S. law to exchange currencies or wire money to banks. Those offices will be open, but not for the Dinar.
We can continue to believe the garbage that comes from these websites and conference calls day after day, month after month and year after year, OR we can examine the issue rationally and see the handwriting on the wall. To do otherwise after all this time is pure delusion and wishful thinking.
I’d love to be wrong and see them RV tomorrow at One Dollar, or even TEN CENTS "prior" to re-denominating, but I simply can no longer wrap my head around that possibility given what we now know. After all this time and all these lies, I sure hope we see at least a reasonable profit from our investment. Meanwhile, we continue to wait and watch the copiers and pasters bring the never-ending supply of crap to the websites to convince the newbies to jump on the Dinar express.
Thank you for sharing your insightful and refreshingly rational post. Pumpers would sell a rusted out Edsel to their own mothers.
Edited by cdladner, 15 July 2011 - 04:04 PM.
Posted 15 July 2011 - 04:10 PM
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