China, The USD, The Euro, And The Final Assault On The RV

[robo5288]

It has been said many times in the trading community that the Iraqi Dinar RV would occur when the Euro hit the elusive 1.5000. The theory has been questioned many times, mostly by those who think that the RV is only about Iraq and Iraq's interests. And it should be noted that the Euro traded at 1.6037 back in July of 2008; so why didn't it RV back then? We all know that Iraq simply was not ready at that time. But as we fast forward to today, we all know that times have changed. Conditions are not perfect in Iraq, but the "stars" are lining up.

Regarding currencies, we all know that Dr. J upset the apple cart months ago when he indicated that the RV would not occur until the Euro hit 1.5000, and he assumed at that time that it would be 2012 before that happened. He pointed out that China was the hold up for the dinar RV, because they were buying Euros at the time, and would continue to buy Euros until they were satisfied with the rate. But here we are in June 2011 and the Euro is making a strong push for 1.5000 right now. Euro was trading at 1.4937 on May 4, 2011; we thought it would hit 1.5000 during May. It did not; the currency retraced back to 1.3963 on May 23,2011. But today it is trading at 1.4480 or so. In other words, it took 19 days to drop about 1000 pips, and it has taken 10 days to gain 500 of those pips back. And all indicators have turned up; long term charts (daily, weekly, monthly) are all pointing higher. I think we will see 1.5000 in the next two weeks, if not sooner. There are those who don't believe that China could be holding this up. Well, if China is going to become the largest economy in the world in a few years, why wouldn't their interests be considered? And I guess the bottom line is this, "if we don't see the RV until the Euro hits 1.5000, then there might be some reality to this theory". Are the currencies lining up? Is this the final assault on the RV? Guess we will see.

[kcw]

Thank you

[3KINGS]

i always enjoy your insight, ........keep on pickin

[robo5288]

Sheeeeeeeesh; you would think a guy would spell China correctly in the Title of the piece he is writing. Sorry bout that.

Robo dear I fixed it

thanks for your thoughts --- sure makes sense to me.

Edited June 2, 2011 by pleasantvalleySunday

[Harley61]

Robo,

That's good, you busted your own chops (spelling) before anyone else could. Right on bud. LOL

[coldwarvet]

Good post, robo. Very thought provoking. Thanks!

[profitmizer]

Thank ya Sir Robo!

[Scooter]

I'M A HUGE ROBO FAN!!!! THE MAN'S A GENIUS!!!!

THANKS FOR THE POST BUD -- SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT THIS MORNING.

SCOOTER

[umbertino]

Quote

Well, if China is going to become the largest economy in the world in a few years,

End Quote

It is... Remove the "if".

[keepmwlknfny]

Good post Robo!! Always good to hear your thoughts and what you are hearing on the trading side of things! Brings another aspect and perspective to this investment that most dont think about (including myself)

[robo5288]

I normally do not post in the non-VIP forums; however, after reading this post I feel I must seek out.

I have been involved in foreign currency trading for over ten years for my clients and my own account. I have been in business for myself since 1994 focusing primarily in non-traditional investment planning, tax and estate planning coupled with endowment building for non-profits. I hold various peer reviewed financial and academic credentials that demonstrate my knowledge in currency and the international investment arena.

The whole concept that the RI/RV of the IQD is tied to the Euro hitting 1.50 to the USD coupled with China blessing for this event to happen is totally comical. Sorry don’t mean to bust your bubble, but who ever this “Dr. J” is (and I doubt he has a PhD in the business/financial field) is so far off of reality that I had to answer your post. If you are into this “international settlements”, “end of the USD”, the “illuminati” and “Elvis is still alive” crap; you need to really re-asses your learning process and believable priorities.

As for my credentials if you are a VIP member, you can read my past posts and my listed academic, business and financial certifications.

Best of luck with your unique concepts concerning the IQD.

Sincerely,

Zorbyx1

Sorry; this isn't even an opinion piece; simply running with a theory is all. Not trying to be right; just throwing info out there. Congratulations on all of your credentials, awards, trophies, medals, degrees, etc. I'm not a VIP member; so have not read any of your work. Just an ole bluegrass fiddle player havin a little fun. Have a good day.

[MrRich]

Zorbyx1 Dr. J is Dr. Johnson, a chiropractor/forex trader. He's not into global settlements or any conspiracy nonsense. He went to college with a guy on Wall St. and that's his source for most of his information. He kept telling us last year that the predictions for an RV were wrong because of what he was being told about China and the euro. Whether you agree with him or not, so far he's been as accurate as anybody else in this investment.

One thing about it ... if Dr. J is right we know what the rate will be don't we? I'll take $1.50 all day long.

[robo5288]

I normally do not post in the non-VIP forums; however, after reading this post I feel I must seek out.

I have been involved in foreign currency trading for over ten years for my clients and my own account. I have been in business for myself since 1994 focusing primarily in non-traditional investment planning, tax and estate planning coupled with endowment building for non-profits. I hold various peer reviewed financial and academic credentials that demonstrate my knowledge in currency and the international investment arena.

The whole concept that the RI/RV of the IQD is tied to the Euro hitting 1.50 to the USD coupled with China blessing for this event to happen is totally comical. Sorry don’t mean to bust your bubble, but who ever this “Dr. J” is (and I doubt he has a PhD in the business/financial field) is so far off of reality that I had to answer your post. If you are into this “international settlements”, “end of the USD”, the “illuminati” and “Elvis is still alive” crap; you need to really re-asses your learning process and believable priorities.

As for my credentials if you are a VIP member, you can read my past posts and my listed academic, business and financial certifications.

Best of luck with your unique concepts concerning the IQD.

Sincerely,

Zorbyx1

Oh and by the way, I don't even know what "international settlements" are; I love the dollar, not familiar with "illuminati", and I do wish that Elvis was still alive. Owned my own businesses since 1984; and was a college administrator before that, and have played music professionally for over 30 years, much of that time at a high level. And I have been a successful currency trader since 2003. But more than anything, I love reading the opinions of others, and I don't have a need to "make people feel small" because of what they are thinking. No two trees look alike.

[Carrello]

Robo, among all of your credentials and degrees, I am surprised that there is still room for the King of Narcissim and Jack of All-Self-Absorption in your myopic world.

[robo5288]

Robo, among all of your credentials and degrees, I am surprised that there is still room for the King of Narcissim and Jack of All-Self-Absorption in your myopic world.

Enjoying life; nothing more.

[Networth]

I can't say I've EVER heard the supposed theory of the dinar revaluing once the USD/EUR pair reaches $1.500. Why in the world does it matter what the relation of the USD is to the EUR? Additionally, what is magical about $1.500? Why not $1.6000? Or $1.4000. It makes absolutely no sense.Someone will have to enlighten me when this theory was proposed and what is so magical about $1.500. It just sounds like another excuse why the RV hasn't yet happened. When the USD/EUR pair reaches $1.500 (and there's no RV), I'll bet the RV goal post will be magically moved by these theorists to $1.600 or the USD/AUD or GBP/HKD pair will also have to reach a critical point. It sounds incredibly silly to me, just like most of the reasons people invent for no RV. If someone out there can explain the logic of this theory, I'm all ears!

[MrRich]

Networth here's a link to where Dr. J posted about this back in October. He posts under his wife's name MicheleJ. You can also go back a few months at DD and listen to his interview in Feb or March with Roger on the blog talk radio.

[jmw]

Hey zorbyx1...welcome down to the common floor...I'm actually torn a little...I agree with you that the value of the Euro has little or no impact....I just can't figure why someone of your pedigree would need to pay for VIP?....maybe an ego thing.

[bodeen]

Thanks for the post Robo............ Always a good read my friend....

Blessings

Bodeen

[Action316]

I normally do not post in the non-VIP forums; however, after reading this post I feel I must seek out.

I have been involved in foreign currency trading for over ten years for my clients and my own account. I have been in business for myself since 1994 focusing primarily in non-traditional investment planning, tax and estate planning coupled with endowment building for non-profits. I hold various peer reviewed financial and academic credentials that demonstrate my knowledge in currency and the international investment arena.

The whole concept that the RI/RV of the IQD is tied to the Euro hitting 1.50 to the USD coupled with China blessing for this event to happen is totally comical. Sorry don’t mean to bust your bubble, but who ever this “Dr. J” is (and I doubt he has a PhD in the business/financial field) is so far off of reality that I had to answer your post. If you are into this “international settlements”, “end of the USD”, the “illuminati” and “Elvis is still alive” crap; you need to really re-asses your learning process and believable priorities.

As for my credentials if you are a VIP member, you can read my past posts and my listed academic, business and financial certifications.

Best of luck with your unique concepts concerning the IQD.

Sincerely,

Zorbyx1

Is this a real post or a joke? No-1 is this crazy right? As for my credentials... NICE!!! I bet your house is full of pics of yourself

[RVDinar4MyFamily]

It has been said many times in the trading community that the Iraqi Dinar RV would occur when the Euro hit the elusive 1.5000. The theory has been questioned many times, mostly by those who think that the RV is only about Iraq and Iraq's interests. And it should be noted that the Euro traded at 1.6037 back in July of 2008; so why didn't it RV back then? We all know that Iraq simply was not ready at that time. But as we fast forward to today, we all know that times have changed. Conditions are not perfect in Iraq, but the "stars" are lining up.

Regarding currencies, we all know that Dr. J upset the apple cart months ago when he indicated that the RV would not occur until the Euro hit 1.5000, and he assumed at that time that it would be 2012 before that happened. He pointed out that China was the hold up for the dinar RV, because they were buying Euros at the time, and would continue to buy Euros until they were satisfied with the rate. But here we are in June 2011 and the Euro is making a strong push for 1.5000 right now. Euro was trading at 1.4937 on May 4, 2011; we thought it would hit 1.5000 during May. It did not; the currency retraced back to 1.3963 on May 23,2011. But today it is trading at 1.4480 or so. In other words, it took 19 days to drop about 1000 pips, and it has taken 10 days to gain 500 of those pips back. And all indicators have turned up; long term charts (daily, weekly, monthly) are all pointing higher. I think we will see 1.5000 in the next two weeks, if not sooner. There are those who don't believe that China could be holding this up. Well, if China is going to become the largest economy in the world in a few years, why wouldn't their interests be considered? And I guess the bottom line is this, "if we don't see the RV until the Euro hits 1.5000, then there might be some reality to this theory". Are the currencies lining up? Is this the final assault on the RV? Guess we will see.

There is no magic number about 1.50 Euro to USD rate, except in people’s minds. World financial markets in the FOREX are based on debits / credits, political stability, future growth, pending economic positive and negative factors; not simple “grand plans “of certain gov’t or conspiracy theories. The currency of a country can be viewed as the stock of a company; the same economic rules apply, just on a grander scale!

Excuses me if I am not impressed with the financial and economic theories of a Chiropractor. Last time I checked a having a roommate who is on works on Wall Street does not qualify as a Forex expert.

The main reason I may seem condescending is the simple fact that statements made like the one I posted to tend to give uninformed individuals a false sense of security in the IQD. These people may also purchase more IQD than they can afford. To make predictions on when the value of a currency will RI/RV needs to be based on “sound financial information” and not a “blue moon” non substantiated theory!

I discussed my background to lend a bit of knowledge of what I do and the level of business, financial certifications and academic achievements to demonstrate what my assumptions are based on.

If you are very sick, are you going to go to a board certified internal medicine physician or a chiropractor?

The same can be said with investment / financial / forex advice. Do you want to risk your hard earned dollars based on information, without substantiated facts, from a so-called self taught investor or are you going to want to have a person that has the academic, financial benchmarks and solid work history in financial instruments?

I am on written record, back in November of 2010, stating that I did not think the RI/RV would happen till end of April at the earliest and would probably happen at the end of June of 2011. That was based simply on the DFI protection ending from the UN coupled with the long history of Arab states never getting anything done till the very last minute. (The same thing could be said of western gov’t also!)

As for a rate, that takes a crystal ball! However, JP Morgan, Goldman, Barclays, RBS and Society General (major French bank) see a “book value” for the IQD between .35 to 1.15. A good argument can be made for a 1:1 USD/IQD ratio. I am enclosing a rate projection based on a current Forex currency vs. the USD and how the IQD compares to it on all economic and political factors. This is the type of analysis that people “in the know” do to make financial assumptions.

Fellow VIP Members,

I have learned, over the years, as an investment manager and tax planner that there are four types of risk. (I have made it simplistic for brevity).

1. Managed Risk: Risk that you are able to set aside funds for loss and purchase insurance to help transfer the loss should it ever happen.

2. Market and Investment Risk: These are risks inherent to various investment platforms you participate in. These risks can be reduced via muti-fund and asset allocations diversification of your funds to reduce risk.

3. Personal Risk: These are your everyday risk to live your life; Driving, flying and activities you partake in. You personally decide what your comfort level is to do. Example cross country hiking or sky diving.

4. Speculative Risk: These are your high risk high reward investment platforms. You see them describe normally on the top of the "Investment Pyramid" of risk return vs. safety of principle.

However, now and then you find a speculative investment that over time will move from the top of the investment pyramid (highest risk) and become lesser in risk due to changing circumstances to the variables inherent to the investment itself. This does not mean it is not still a “risky” investment; however, the dynamic parameters that surround the investment are changing in a positive manner that lends itself to be considered less risky but still have a greater ROI than expected.

I believe we are seeing such a change in the IQD. Four year ago, two ago and 1 year ago the IQD was considered a “highly speculative” play. However, today the IQD may be considered a risk related investment not that different than some other foreign currency options available on exotic or near exotic currencies.

Example I would consider the buying of IQD for the Risk / reward relationship to be must better play than buying Vietnam, Afghanistan, Haiti, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and about another 27 or so FOREX recognized currencies. I have gone through all of these currencies and it becomes quite apparent that the IQD is valued ridiculously artificially low compared to these other currencies and must RI/RV to a free market value based on Iraq potential net worth of its trading assets.

Let me give you an outstanding example: the Afghanistan dollar is worth .0233 AFD to 1 USD. Afghanistan has some various mineral assists in it mountains but no real trading assets (except heroin); a gov’t less in control of their county than Iraq and it is located in an area of the world that really has no political value to the western powers. Iraq on the other hand has incredible wealth in the ground from oil, natural gas and minerals in its mountains. Iraq also has the ability to become a major food exporter to its neighbors in a few years. Iraq has the ability to have a diversified economy but mostly based on energy exports. To say the least, Iraq’s location is ground zero for its value to the western powers.

The IQD is worth .000836 to 1 USD. Using the USD as the medium of exchange for both countries; the AFD is currently worth about 28 TIMES MORE than the IQD. That my friend is ridiculous! You will get similar side by side inadequacies of the IQD value vs. some of the other currencies I have mentioned in this thread. The bottom line is the degree of risk of loss in purchasing IQD vs. its return on investment, in my opinion, is well worth the chance to take. I would only invest an amount you can afford to live without and play the waiting for your ROI. Happy Trails

Zorbyx

Hey Robo, long time no see, will have to catch up sometime.

Thank you both for your insights, makes for a great debate if we could drop all the insults, I think Robo was sharing some good info that has not been discussed in a while, and I think both are compelling arguements. Time will tell if the Theory Robo is posting about is proven or not. Zorbyx, I think you will agree that no matter how much research you do, often times it turns out to be the x-factor that makes all the difference.

Edited June 3, 2011 by RVDinar4MyFamily

[20MillionDinar]

Hey Zorbyx1,

Just curious. Do you know how much currency Afghanistan has in circulation at this time? I was trying to do a little research on this matter and thought it might be easier to ask somebody who is possibly in the know.

Edited June 3, 2011 by 20MillionDinar

[speculatorsRIDE]

I was on the fence about joining VIP. After reading this thread, I have finally made my decision.

[umbertino]

I can't say I've EVER heard the supposed theory of the dinar revaluing once the USD/EUR pair reaches $1.500. Why in the world does it matter what the relation of the USD is to the EUR? Additionally, what is magical about $1.500? Why not $1.6000? Or $1.4000. It makes absolutely no sense.Someone will have to enlighten me when this theory was proposed and what is so magical about $1.500. It just sounds like another excuse why the RV hasn't yet happened. When the USD/EUR pair reaches $1.500 (and there's no RV), I'll bet the RV goal post will be magically moved by these theorists to $1.600 or the USD/AUD or GBP/HKD pair will also have to reach a critical point. It sounds incredibly silly to me, just like most of the reasons people invent for no RV. If someone out there can explain the logic of this theory, I'm all ears!

My man-on-the-street explanation is... Someone out there wants to shaft us.

[Networth]

Networth here's a link to where Dr. J posted about this back in October. He posts under his wife's name MicheleJ. You can also go back a few months at DD and listen to his interview in Feb or March with Roger on the blog talk radio.

Read the link. It provides absolutely no explanation why the RV is tied to the USD/EUR pair or that the magical exchange is $1.5000. It's just another "secret", unknown source assuring the poster there's no RV until 2012. We need reasons and logic. Not more super-secret inside information telling us to just trust them. If there's a logical reason why the dinar is related to the USD/EUR pair it ought to be easy to explain. Otherwise, it's just more of the same nonsense that people spew to try to stroke their own ego.