forex notes

[kr88zy]

FOREX: Dollar Faces a Heavy Week of Event Risk, But Can GDP and a FOMC Decision Revive the Currency?

04/23/2011 - 06:29:00 (DailyFX)

Looking ahead to the forthcoming trading week, we may have something of a slow start with much of the European market still absent Monday; but activity will pick up soon thereafter. With the dollar, underlying fundamental themes like risk appetite trends typically hold a greater sway over its bearing; but the top events for this period could very well make the greenback the master of its own future.

•Dollar Faces a Heavy Week of Event Risk, But Can GDP and a FOMC Decision Revive the Currency?

•British Pound Traders are as Interested in the 1Q GDP Reading as BoE, Government Policy Makers

•Euro Won’t be Able to Hold Itself Up on Momentum Alone as Rate Expectations Fall Apart

•New Zealand Dollar: The RBNZ May Offer More than Economists are Predicting

•Australian Dollar will Offer a Tempered Response to All but the Most Dramatic Inflation Report

•Japanese Yen: What Should we Expect from the Bank of Japan Rate Decision?

•Gold Will be Tuned in to the Fed’s Policy Bearings and the Dollar Reaction

Dollar Faces a Heavy Week of Event Risk, But Can GDP and a FOMC Decision Revive the Currency?

The final day of this trading week was as quiet as we expected. With much of the European and North American markets closed for the extended holiday weekend, there wasn’t enough liquidity to feed meaningful moves. Those that remained would only be able to generate short-lived swings that would ultimately fall short on potential return but pose significant risk for near-placed stops. A week-end assessment of the dollar’s performance can be summed up with the currency’s position at the close – exceptionally week. On a trade-weighted basis, the currency closed the period out at its lowest level in over two-and-a-half years.

Looking ahead to the forthcoming trading week, we may have something of a slow start with much of the European market still absent Monday; but activity will pick up soon thereafter. With the dollar, underlying fundamental themes like risk appetite trends typically hold a greater sway over its bearing; but the top events for this period could very well make the greenback the master of its own future. Of the two critical events, the FOMC rate decision is the most important. While it is very unlikely that the Fed will change the benchmark lending rate or stimulus programs; this is not our typical central bank meeting. With this particular gathering, Chairman Ben Bernanke will begin a quarterly press conference in the style of ECB President Jean Claude Trichet’s regular question-and-answer period following the European bank’s policy decision. This effort at transparency will help curb speculation and clearly define the dollar’s standing. The timing of this new communication effort is significant because it is the only one scheduled before the QE2 program is set to expire in June. With speculation already starting to circulate around what the Fed will do after this facility hits its target; traders consider this an open forum for the central bank to start telegraphing its intentions.

Risk appetite trends and an eventual rebound in the dollar’s anemic yields are two of the currency’s most promising potential catalysts. The rate decision will certainly play to both; but so too will the first quarter GDP reading that is due for release the following day. Policy officials have maintained a muted outlook for economic activity due to the stubbornly high level of unemployment and tepid rebound in consumer spending among other factors; but overall growth has certainly contributed to speculative appetites over the past year-and-a-half. This update has the potential to quiet risk appetite and help boost inflation expectations. The consensus expectation is for a cooler 1.9 percent pace of annualized growth; which will read poorly to market participants but is inline with what policy officials have seen. Another interesting factor is the reading’s price component (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure). A jump from 0.4 percent to 2.4 percent could jumpstart rate forecasts.

////if u look u can see some pleasing info

[kr88zy]

forex left some great clues can u find them?

[30 at 50]

thanks KR.. great post !!..

[familyguy]

but the top events for this period could very well make the greenback the master of its own future. Of the two critical events, the FOMC rate decision is the most important. While it is very unlikely that the Fed will change the benchmark lending rate or stimulus programs; this is not our typical central bank meeting.

These statements are most interesting. thanxs for the great post

[kr88zy]

thanks have been trying to keep digging

[kr88zy]

happy easter...WAKE UP...@SMELL THE DINARS

[kr88zy]

Looking ahead to the forthcoming trading week, we may have something of a slow start with much of the European market still absent Monday; but activity will pick up soon thereafter. With the dollar, underlying fundamental themes like risk appetite trends typically hold a greater sway over its bearing; but the top events for this period could very well make the greenback the master of its own future. Of the two critical events, the FOMC rate decision is the most important. While it is very unlikely that the Fed will change the benchmark lending rate or stimulus programs; this is not our typical central bank meeting. With this particular gathering, Chairman Ben Bernanke will begin a quarterly press conference in the style of ECB President Jean Claude Trichet’s regular question-and-answer period following the European bank’s policy decision. This effort at transparency will help curb speculation and clearly define the dollar’s standing. The timing of this new communication effort is significant because it is the only one scheduled before the QE2 program is set to expire in June. With speculation already starting to circulate around what the Fed will do after this facility hits its target; traders consider this an open forum for the central bank to start telegraphing its intentions.

wake up and start crapping lol