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With oil rallying 14 percent in the second quarter alone, investors might be tempted to take some profits. 

That would be a mistake, says one widely followed energy strategist.

“What we’re looking for now in WTI is we’re looking to go to $77,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC on Thursday's “Futures Now.” “If we break above that, then there’s considerable room to run.”

 

In other words, Croft believes that oil would still need to rally over 3 percent — but the commodity could keep hitting multi-year highs should that level be reached. The strategist had previously stated at the end of May that a return to $100 oil was possible in the future.

The current geopolitical climate could provide the beginnings of that rally. Earlier this past week, the U.S. pressed its allies to block Iranian oil imports, a move Croft described as an attempt to “take Iran down to zero.” 

Since then, oil has spiked to its highest levels since November 2014, and ended June with its fourth straight quarterly gain for the first time since 2010.

Croft believes that tensions in the Middle East could also exacerbate the supply of oil in the market, thereby driving up demand and hiking oil prices higher.

“I think this market is going to tighten in the back half of this year, I think there’s no way around this,” she added.

Croft also stressed that all eyes were also on Saudi Arabia to see how many barrels they could produce. On Tuesday, reports that the Saudis were planning on hitting a record oil output of 11 million barrels a day temporarily sent oil prices lower.

Crude ended Friday's trading session above $74, its highest levels since November 2014.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/oilssurge-is-far-from-over-says-top-rbc-strategist.htmlq/*

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Oil
Oil prices rose about 1% on Friday as strike actions in Norway and Iraq hit supplies, but futures were set for a second straight week of decline after Libyan ports reopened and, on the view that Iran might still export some crude despite US sanctions. Brent crude rose 88 cents to settle at $75.33 a barrel on Friday — a 1.18% gain. However, the global benchmark fell about 2.7% for the week. WTI crude futures rose 68 cents to settle at $71.01 a barrel, but lost about 3.9% for the week.
The market pared gains late in the session on Friday on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is actively considering tapping in to the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which would add supply to the market. The US holds a reserve of about 660mn barrels, enough for about three or four months of supply. 
Persistently declining oil supplies from Venezuela and simmering strike actions in Norway and Iraq are prompting bullish sentiment. Hundreds of workers on Norwegian offshore oil and gas rigs went on strike on Tuesday after rejecting a proposed wage deal, closing Shell’s Knarr field, which produces 23,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In Iraq, about 100 protesters demanding jobs and better services closed access to Umm Qasr commodities port near Basra on Friday.
Prices weakened earlier in the week after Opec member Libya reopened major eastern oil ports and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington would consider granting waivers to some of Iran’s crude buyers. Fears that a US-China trade dispute could hit global economic growth have also kept buyers on the back foot. The US oil rig count remained steady at 863 this week. The rate of US rig growth has slowed over the past month or so with a decline in crude prices.
 
Gas
Asian spot LNG prices continued correcting lower with potentially steeper dips expected ahead amid lower demand from China and India and healthy supply. Recent tender deals seemingly confirmed the bearish tone. Spot prices for August delivery in Asia were assessed at $10 permn Btu, down 10 cents from the previous week. LNG prices may be a shade lower heading into September. 
Despite above-average temperatures in Japan, utilities show limited demand for LNG, while in China buyers may be waiting for prices to fall further before wading into the spot market. Total LNG imports into China remain brisk however. Cooling prices may also tempt Indian buyers back into the market but for now demand was sparse with only Gail this week wrapping up a tender purchase for a single late July cargo.
A run of production outages helped to tighten markets last month but much of that pressure has since been relieved. However, the market was not fully out of the woods as Malaysia’s giant Bintulu complex may have shut in some production for planned maintenance. The 30mn tonne per annum, nine-train facility spent last month troubleshooting unexpected electrical faults that impeded output. Australia’s Ichthys project, meanwhile, fell further behind schedule, delaying first LNG as developer Inpex patched what it called “minor issues”. The end of September is now the new target for the project to ship its first LNG cargo.
 

 

http://www.gulf-times.com/story/599610/Oil-futures-set-for-a-second-straight-week-of-declT

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This would be to lower gasoline prices ahead of the US elections in November. 
Over the weekend an Iranian oil official urged the US admin not to use the Strategic Reserve to push prices lower, but instead to drop sanctions on Iran's exports of crude.
 
One for the oil traders about to kick off the new week
I guess the good news (for drivers) is one or the other it looks like there will be moves to get prices down. 
A price manipulation I can approve of.
 
 
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There were a lot of articles the last few days about oil going higher.  I’m a trader and I read all the articles but I trade what I SEE!!!

Today I traded WLL down for about 2 bucks. Doesn’t seem like much until you add x 2500 shares. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out WLL was going down big this morning.   Day Trading isn’t for everyone but I’ve taken my lumps learning the tricks of the trade.  I find it exhilarating for a few hours a day, 3-4 days a week.  If you ever decide to Day Trade make sure you practice trade first.  I didn’t do that and it cost me 35k the first few months. Yes, you will learn from your mistakes!!!  

 

Now my Long investments XOM and SLB are losing but as long as the trend is in tact I will stay in those. I’m still about 50% in cash overall because I just don’t trust the overall markets.  I’m very very patient on my long term investments. 

 

 

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Oil technical analysis

wti-crude-oil-chart.png

Oil bounced from the 50% retracement on Friday but talk of Saudi Arabia offering customers more supply and signs of increased Iraq shipments sparked a rout today with WTI down $2.89 to $68.12.

The drop cut through Thursday's low and oil also briefly fell below the 61.8% retracement before bouncing slightly. The $68.05 level will be one to watch on the close.

Note that crude seasonals are now in a time of weakness. The numbers to watch in the week ahead will be the US inventory data, and how the market reacts to them. Inventories tightened dramatically last week and oil dropped anyway.

 

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/!/wti-crude-falls-4-but-stalls-at-618-fibonacci-level-20180716

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