BTI 2018 Iraq country report

[md11fr8dawg]

You Da Man!!! Must be an old man like me!!! Happy Father's Day!!

[DinarThug]

On 6/15/2018 at 7:00 AM, mr.unlikely said:

This is an excerpt from the 36 page Iraq country repor put out by BertelsmannSiftung regarding Iraq. I thought this might be of interest to anyone who was on the fence about the value of the Iraqi dinar as an investment for the future. I provided a link. I just about Shiite my pants when reading this. I hope you all enjoy the official price valuation provided by this research agency. Your comments are appreciated.                                                                                                                                                                                         

https://www.bti-project.org/en/home/

8 | Currency and Price Stability

The government’s monetary policy since 2003 has focused on maintaining price stability and exchange rate predictability. The inflation has remained in the low since 2010. According to the CBI, the inflation rate is 1.4% (2015 estimates), while the World Bank estimates 2015 at -1.2%, and the country’s international reserve volume also has decreased due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The independence of the CBI suffered a setback in January 2011 when former Prime Minister al-Maliki won a court ruling that placed independent institutions, including the CBI, under the control of the cabinet. In January 2012, the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis that led the Supreme Judicial Council to issue an arrest warrant for CBI governor Sinan al-Shabibi in October 2012 on charges of corruption. Al-Shabibi received a seven-year prison sentence in absentia 2014, shortly before being acquitted of all charges. The difference between the official and parallel exchange increased from three percent in 2015 to nine percent in May 2016. The CBI introduced a number of policies to keep inflation low. The dinar remained widely stable and was worth $1.71 in early 2017. 

 

Here's Mr Unlikely's Original Post In The First Paragraph Highlighted - Followed By A Graph And 3 Additional Paragraph's !  

 

     

 

 

 

8 | Currency and Price Stability

The government’s monetary policy since 2003 has focused on maintaining price stability and exchange rate predictability. The inflation has remained in the low since 2010. According to the CBI, the inflation rate is 1.4% (2015 estimates), while the World Bank estimates 2015 at -1.2%, and the country’s international reserve volume also has decreased due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The independence of the CBI suffered a setback in January 2011 when former Prime Minister al-Maliki won a court ruling that placed independent institutions, including the CBI, under the control of the cabinet. In January 2012, the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis that led the Supreme Judicial Council to issue an arrest warrant for CBI governor Sinan al-Shabibi in October 2012 on charges of corruption. Al-Shabibi received a seven-year prison sentence in absentia 2014, shortly before being acquitted of all charges. The difference between the official and parallel exchange increased from three percent in 2015 to nine percent in May 2016. The CBI introduced a number of policies to keep inflation low. The dinar remained widely stable and was worth $1.71 in early 2017.

Anti-inflation / forex policy 
7 

 

The reduction of Iraq’s debt to a sustainable level, along with debt relief negotiations, has been a CBI priority since 2003. This led to an 80% reduction of the Paris Club debt (approximately $800 million annually), while negotiations with non-Paris Club creditors are still ongoing. In an attempt to ease the financial burden on Iraq, members of the Paris Club agreed to postpone debt from Iraq until the end of 2019. Iraq’s external debt was reduced to $58.13 billion at the end of 2014. Meanwhile, Iraqi’s public debt continues to increase, reaching 61.4% of GDP in 2015, leaving total reserves of $50,990.8 million (World Bank 2016 data).

The proximate causes of Iraq’s current economic problem are a rise in military expenses in order to fight IS and recapture territories under its control ($13.1 billion in 2015; total government expenditures reached 22.4% of GDP in the same year), and a sharp decline in world oil prices. However, its roots lie in longer-term financial mismanagement.

On 7 December 2016, Iraq’s parliament approved the 2017 budget, which predicts a deficit of $19 billion, after a revision of the expected oil price from $56/barrel to $42/barrel, with an expenditure of 100.7 trillion dinars, about 6% lower than the 2016 projected spending. The government intends to finance its budgetary deficit through treasury bills, government bonds, austerity measures, loans from local banks and the IMF.

Macrostability 
6 

The link to the report is as follows :

 

https://www.bti-project.org/en/reports/country-reports/detail/itc/irq/

 

[justchecking123]

3 hours ago, DinarThug said:

 

Here's Mr Unlikely's Original Post In The First Paragraph Highlighted - Followed By A Graph And 3 Additional Paragraph's !  

 

     

 

 

 

8 | Currency and Price Stability

The government’s monetary policy since 2003 has focused on maintaining price stability and exchange rate predictability. The inflation has remained in the low since 2010. According to the CBI, the inflation rate is 1.4% (2015 estimates), while the World Bank estimates 2015 at -1.2%, and the country’s international reserve volume also has decreased due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The independence of the CBI suffered a setback in January 2011 when former Prime Minister al-Maliki won a court ruling that placed independent institutions, including the CBI, under the control of the cabinet. In January 2012, the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis that led the Supreme Judicial Council to issue an arrest warrant for CBI governor Sinan al-Shabibi in October 2012 on charges of corruption. Al-Shabibi received a seven-year prison sentence in absentia 2014, shortly before being acquitted of all charges. The difference between the official and parallel exchange increased from three percent in 2015 to nine percent in May 2016. The CBI introduced a number of policies to keep inflation low. The dinar remained widely stable and was worth $1.71 in early 2017.

Anti-inflation / forex policy 
7 

 

The reduction of Iraq’s debt to a sustainable level, along with debt relief negotiations, has been a CBI priority since 2003. This led to an 80% reduction of the Paris Club debt (approximately $800 million annually), while negotiations with non-Paris Club creditors are still ongoing. In an attempt to ease the financial burden on Iraq, members of the Paris Club agreed to postpone debt from Iraq until the end of 2019. Iraq’s external debt was reduced to $58.13 billion at the end of 2014. Meanwhile, Iraqi’s public debt continues to increase, reaching 61.4% of GDP in 2015, leaving total reserves of $50,990.8 million (World Bank 2016 data).

The proximate causes of Iraq’s current economic problem are a rise in military expenses in order to fight IS and recapture territories under its control ($13.1 billion in 2015; total government expenditures reached 22.4% of GDP in the same year), and a sharp decline in world oil prices. However, its roots lie in longer-term financial mismanagement.

On 7 December 2016, Iraq’s parliament approved the 2017 budget, which predicts a deficit of $19 billion, after a revision of the expected oil price from $56/barrel to $42/barrel, with an expenditure of 100.7 trillion dinars, about 6% lower than the 2016 projected spending. The government intends to finance its budgetary deficit through treasury bills, government bonds, austerity measures, loans from local banks and the IMF.

Macrostability 
6 

The link to the report is as follows :

 

https://www.bti-project.org/en/reports/country-reports/detail/itc/irq/

 

This looks pretty legit. 

 

The source definitely checks out, a well-respected and established German media and social cause company with a ton of "source" back-up.

 

Interest officially piqued...

 

My question...why would this be released now? It seems so random, and the dinar part of the report cut-and-dried.

 

No way BTI didn't know this would be found by dinar speculators. Their influence world-wide is huge, although not in the US.

 

If the info is true, then couldn't the CBI artificially revalue the currency randomly to manipulate the market without the masses knowing about it (the 2017 "revalue")?

 

As a trader of options I'm fully aware that in that market (options) the volatility is overstated. Not manipulated...overstated. It's math.

 

But the stock market is manipulated sometimes. It's coldly efficient...Bots can't run it...but speculators...big ones...CAN manipulate it to their liking. 

 

Makes one wonder...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jg1]

5 hours ago, justchecking123 said:

This looks pretty legit. 

 

The source definitely checks out, a well-respected and established German media and social cause company with a ton of "source" back-up.

 

Interest officially piqued...

 

My question...why would this be released now? It seems so random, and the dinar part of the report cut-and-dried.

 

No way BTI didn't know this would be found by dinar speculators. Their influence world-wide is huge, although not in the US.

 

If the info is true, then couldn't the CBI artificially revalue the currency randomly to manipulate the market without the masses knowing about it (the 2017 "revalue")?

 

As a trader of options I'm fully aware that in that market (options) the volatility is overstated. Not manipulated...overstated. It's math.

 

But the stock market is manipulated sometimes. It's coldly efficient...Bots can't run it...but speculators...big ones...CAN manipulate it to their liking. 

 

Makes one wonder...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, now what? How could we have cashed in on this? Or possibly when it happens again.

[jg1]

10 hours ago, DinarThug said:

January 2012, the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis

Don't remember any CRISIS and why would this caus a crisis. Would think this would cause a Joubaly. 

[jg1]

27 minutes ago, jg1 said:

Don't remember any CRISIS and why would this caus a crisis. Would think this would cause a Joubaly. 

Joubilee. 

[DinarThug]

29 minutes ago, jg1 said:

Don't remember any CRISIS and why would this caus a crisis. Would think this would cause a Joubaly. 

 

It Was A Result Of The Obama Administration’s Decision To Withdraw The US Troops In 2011 - Which Caused A Vacuum Leading To The Formation Of The ISIS ‘JV Team’ !  

 

 

The Iraqi insurgency, later referred to as the Iraq Crisis, escalated^[14] after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011, resulting in violent conflict with the central government, as well as sectarian violence among Iraq's religious groups.

 

[Mxmann]

3 minutes ago, jg1 said:

Joubilee. 

Joubaly, joubilee, all the same!  I was just hoping for a good ole RV jamboree!!!

[jg1]

16 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

 

It Was A Result Of The Obama Administration’s Decision To Withdraw The US Troops In 2011 - Which Caused A Vacuum Leading To The Formation Of The ISIS ‘JV Team’ !  

 

 

The Iraqi insurgency, later referred to as the Iraq Crisis, escalated^[14] after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011, resulting in violent conflict with the central government, as well as sectarian violence among Iraq's religious groups.

 

Not the crisis I'm talking about. This one states, 

 

50 minutes ago, jg1 said:

January 2012, the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis

 

[DinarThug]

19 minutes ago, jg1 said:

Not the crisis I'm talking about. This one states, 

 

Here, Try This Crisis On For Size - When Maliki Tried To Have Shabbi Arrested (Also In 2012) While Shabb’s Was Out Of The Country And Replaced Him With A Turki !  

 

 

Sinan Al Shabibi
الدكتور سنان الشبيبي

 

 

 

Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq In office
September 2003 – October 2012

 

Succeeded by Abdel Basset Turki (acting)

 

Personal details Born 1 July 1941 Baghdad, Kingdom of Iraq

 

Nationality Iraq

 

Relations Mohammed Ridha Al-Shabibi (father)

 

Alma mater University of Baghdad
University of Manchester
University of Bristol

 

Profession Economist

 

 

 

And If Ur Not Completely 100% Satisfied With This ‘Iraqi Crisis’ - Please Feel Free To Return It For Another One !  

 

     

 

Edited June 19, 2018 by DinarThug

[NEPatriotsFan1]

23 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

 

And If Ur Not Completely 100% Satisfied With This ‘Iraqi Crisis’ - Please Feel Free To Return It For Another One !

Good one Thug! 

[Rugbylaird19]

I also like jubblies as well.

[jg1]

4 hours ago, DinarThug said:

 

Here, Try This Crisis On For Size - When Maliki Tried To Have Shabbi Arrested (Also In 2012) While Shabb’s Was Out Of The Country And Replaced Him With A Turki !  

 

 

Sinan Al Shabibi
الدكتور سنان الشبيبي

 

 

 

Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq In office
September 2003 – October 2012

 

Succeeded by Abdel Basset Turki (acting)

 

Personal details Born 1 July 1941 Baghdad, Kingdom of Iraq

 

Nationality Iraq

 

Relations Mohammed Ridha Al-Shabibi (father)

 

Alma mater University of Baghdad
University of Manchester
University of Bristol

 

Profession Economist

 

 

 

And If Ur Not Completely 100% Satisfied With This ‘Iraqi Crisis’ - Please Feel Free To Return It For Another One !  

 

     

 

Thanks Thug. Me learning something is sometimes like trying to drive a bent nail into cement. Again, Don't see where raising the value of the Iraq dinar would create a crisis "the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis" the only very temporary crisis was created by malarki when he removed and replaced his own man charge. Even then don't see where there was a crisis for the Iraq people. 

 

[jg1]

Oh, and I used to make a really good cherries JUBILEE.

 

Thanks, didnt know you were designated for extra help for me. 😀

[Rugbylaird19]

20 minutes ago, jg1 said:

Thanks Thug. Me learning something is sometimes like trying to drive a bent nail into cement. Again, Don't see where raising the value of the Iraq dinar would create a crisis "the CBI raised the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to $1.19, causing a huge crisis" the only very temporary crisis was created by malarki when he removed and replaced his own man charge. Even then don't see where there was a crisis for the Iraq people. 

 

I guess they suffered from a temporary bout of sanity.

[jg1]

3 minutes ago, Rugbylaird19 said:

I guess they suffered from a temporary bout of sanity.

Soooooo true. Hope they get the current turkey bird out and stuff him soon. Dynamite will sufice. 

[jg1]

Just wondering, what's the turn around time for questions being answered Thuggie. That way I know what time to check back. 

[DinarThug]

1 hour ago, jg1 said:

Just wondering, what's the turn around time for questions being answered Thuggie. That way I know what time to check back. 

 

That Depends On How Many Bottles U Leave Me To Answer It !

 

     

[mr.unlikely]

 The dinar remained widely stable and was worth $1.165 in early 2015. The CBI aims to keep inflation low, and is additionally slated to improve its internal audit function in line with the IMF’s safeguard assessment, completed in June 2010.

 

So I went back to BTI and had a look at the 2016 report for Iraq. This is what they said about the value of the Dinar in early 2015. This company has a report for every year and if anybody wants to know the dinars true value at a given point in time, I highly recommend that you go through the reports and have a peek. Section 8 seems to be the section covering currency value. The CBI has always contended that they wanted to get the value on par with the dollar and if they put it out at 1:1 it gives forex traders plenty of room to make money by trading it up to its actual value.

[NEPatriotsFan1]

1 minute ago, mr.unlikely said:

 The dinar remained widely stable and was worth $1.165 in early 2015. The CBI aims to keep inflation low, and is additionally slated to improve its internal audit function in line with the IMF’s safeguard assessment, completed in June 2010.

 

So I went back to BTI and had a look at the 2016 report for Iraq. This is what they said about the value of the Dinar in early 2015. This company has a report for every year and if anybody wants to know the dinars true value at a given point in time, I highly recommend that you go through the reports and have a peek. Section 8 seems to be the section covering currency value. The CBI has always contended that they wanted to get the value on par with the dollar and if they put it out at 1:1 it gives forex traders plenty of room to make money by trading it up to its actual value.

That would be fantastic! 

[mr.unlikely]

One last thing. My buddy who got me in to this investment told me yesterday that Frank 26 got ahold of the article that I posted and was dangling the intel carrot to his flock of sheeple. also claimed it for himself. I dont really care but I thought it was funny. Hey we saw it here first!

[Floridian]

1 minute ago, mr.unlikely said:

One last thing. My buddy who got me in to this investment told me yesterday that Frank 26 got ahold of the article that I posted and was dangling the intel carrot to his flock of sheeple. also claimed it for himself. I dont really care but I thought it was funny. Hey we saw it here first!

 

Really?  WOW!

How can he do that?  It's so obvious.

Even if his followers don't go to any other dinar boards, everything he says is printed on Dinar Guru and Dinar Recaps, so everyone would know what he did.  😂

[Pitcher]

That’s so predictable.  That guy is a worm. Thank you Mr Unlikely for sharing it with us first.  

[DinarThug]

36 minutes ago, mr.unlikely said:

Frank 26 got ahold of the article that I posted and was dangling the intel carrot to his flock of sheeple. also claimed it for himself.

 

What Happens On The Blue Couch - Stays Stuck To The Blue Couch !  

 

     

[Pitcher]