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I think it is natural to try correlate events to the RV of the Iraqi Dinar, Our way of trying to make sense of it all. I believe It would only make sense that they would RV before the conference, fully article 8 compliant. Seems somehow that the budget is also tied into this RV, article 8, HCl and art.140., to me it all seems common sense that all would be done at one time. If they were to RV before the start of the conference and pass the budget, it needs to be done either Thursday or Friday under an emergency session of parliament.  Then printed in gazette to be official. They cannot wait till Monday, I’m sure anybody of any importance will be in Kuwait. Anyone one else have any input ?

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I think You've summed it up pretty well, Woldopep! :tiphat:

 

For that amount of cash infusion into Iraq that doesn't include all the associated investment into economic development, I suspect something would have to give for the IQD value to increase and go international prior to the foreign investments being made in Iraq. For example, the 100 billion USD advertised for reconstruction. If 1% of that value, say 1 billion USD was let in IQD to get things going and then the value of the IQD increased to 1 IQD = 1 USD, that would be nominally a 1,000 fold increase so now the 1 billion USD worth of IQD post conversion is worth nominally 1 trillion USD. All these companies could just pack up and go home with the profit they have just made!

 

In my potentially overly simplistic view, the IQD would need to revalue BEFORE international commerce was conducted under IQD. The "closed economy" of nominally 150 million USD once a day with the currency auctions today will just not cut it for the amount of real time international transactions that will need to occur to facilitate the reconstruction and economic development in Iraq. So, the "closed economy" with the daily currency auctions would need to stop simultaneously with going to an "open economy" where the IQD is traded internationally to reasonably and acceptably facilitate the reconstruction and economic development. In my example above, I just can not see going to an "open economy" without a ReInstated/Revalued IQD or likely international financial inequities will occur and the "quick profit" folks will take off without continuing their obligations to complete their projects since they have gotten a nominal 1,000 fold increase just for getting their initial cut.

 

I suspect the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians really need to get things in place for an extremely successful Kuwaiti Donor Conference or the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians will suffer in the upcoming May elections that are a mere three months away. Three months is an extremely short time frame for the fruits of the Kuwaiti Donor Conference to bear out sufficiently for the Iraqi populace to maintain confidence in the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians. If the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians are changed out, another cast of more corrupt characters could be voted in and then this will go nowhere for a while.

 

I am optimistic for this all to gain traction. The Kuwaiti Donor Conference may come and go. However, BEFORE foreign investment for reconstruction and economic development begin to pour into Iraq, I believe the IQD will need to revalue. The foreign investment for reconstruction and economic development NEED to bear sufficient fruit BEFORE the May elections for the reasonably corruption free GOI politicians to be reelected to maintain the confidence of foreign investors.

 

Just my opinion, thoughts, and :twocents:

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH, BABY!!!)!!!

:pirateship:

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I have to agree with both of you. Remember, last year by this time they said they were going to move the monetary reform process to early 2018 after saying they were going to do it in early 2017. So far, they have not said anything about moving it. So, lets hope its still on for early 2018. :crossedfingers:

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14 hours ago, Synopsis said:

I think You've summed it up pretty well, Woldopep! :tiphat:

 

For that amount of cash infusion into Iraq that doesn't include all the associated investment into economic development, I suspect something would have to give for the IQD value to increase and go international prior to the foreign investments being made in Iraq. For example, the 100 billion USD advertised for reconstruction. If 1% of that value, say 1 billion USD was let in IQD to get things going and then the value of the IQD increased to 1 IQD = 1 USD, that would be nominally a 1,000 fold increase so now the 1 billion USD worth of IQD post conversion is worth nominally 1 trillion USD. All these companies could just pack up and go home with the profit they have just made!

 

In my potentially overly simplistic view, the IQD would need to revalue BEFORE international commerce was conducted under IQD. The "closed economy" of nominally 150 million USD once a day with the currency auctions today will just not cut it for the amount of real time international transactions that will need to occur to facilitate the reconstruction and economic development in Iraq. So, the "closed economy" with the daily currency auctions would need to stop simultaneously with going to an "open economy" where the IQD is traded internationally to reasonably and acceptably facilitate the reconstruction and economic development. In my example above, I just can not see going to an "open economy" without a ReInstated/Revalued IQD or likely international financial inequities will occur and the "quick profit" folks will take off without continuing their obligations to complete their projects since they have gotten a nominal 1,000 fold increase just for getting their initial cut.

 

I suspect the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians really need to get things in place for an extremely successful Kuwaiti Donor Conference or the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians will suffer in the upcoming May elections that are a mere three months away. Three months is an extremely short time frame for the fruits of the Kuwaiti Donor Conference to bear out sufficiently for the Iraqi populace to maintain confidence in the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians. If the current reasonably corruption free GOI politicians are changed out, another cast of more corrupt characters could be voted in and then this will go nowhere for a while.

 

I am optimistic for this all to gain traction. The Kuwaiti Donor Conference may come and go. However, BEFORE foreign investment for reconstruction and economic development begin to pour into Iraq, I believe the IQD will need to revalue. The foreign investment for reconstruction and economic development NEED to bear sufficient fruit BEFORE the May elections for the reasonably corruption free GOI politicians to be reelected to maintain the confidence of foreign investors.

 

Just my opinion, thoughts, and :twocents:

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH, BABY!!!)!!!

:pirateship:

Mr. Synopsis,

I did not think of that angle but it makes perfect sense.

Thank you once again for sharing your insight.

(YEAH, BABY!!!)!!! Go Moola Nova

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1 hour ago, CaptainBVI said:

Mr. Synopsis,

I did not think of that angle but it makes perfect sense.

Thank you once again for sharing your insight.

(YEAH, BABY!!!)!!! Go Moola Nova

 

The Best Of Your Day To You, Mr. CaptainBVI!!! :tiphat:

 

And, OH, YEAH...................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH, BABY!!!)!!!

:pirateship:

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1 hour ago, Synopsis said:

 

The Best Of Your Day To You, Mr. CaptainBVI!!! :tiphat:

 

And, OH, YEAH...................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH, BABY!!!)!!!

:pirateship:

To you as well, Sir.

Keep the positive outlook coming, the universe abides by the laws of attraction.

That subject will take us at least a full bottle of rum post RV to do a proper, "Synopsis". ;)

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it's interesting to say the least . they sure seem like they're  about to go international with everything they got goin and you have to have a tradeable currency to start trading international with all these donor countries so I don't see how Iraq can't have a tradeable currency this year  but time will tell

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Agreed Handy.  Companies that invest WANT to make a profit!  They want to be able to pull their profits out.  Cannot do that if it is not tradable.

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Just a crazy thought here. If it’s a “ donor conference “ where countries are giving money for projects, why does Iraq have to revalue ?

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I just can't see this Conference amounting to much.....A few months ago they had the Big Business Fair in Baghdad and needed to show value to investors and then there was no information after the conclusion of the Fair. Now they want to rebuilt and to do that they need Equipment and that isn'y cheap. Getting the Equipment and Man Power there isn't cheap . Then you have to pay the man Power big bucks to want to go over there.....Anyone want to go and get paid the rate it is now?

 

If they don't get something done with this RV/RI I am starting to think this Conference is going to be another Bust and soon hope will be lost from the outside world to take another look at a failed country, financial system and Government that just can't seem to pull it together.

 

A lot of money wasted on travel to Kuwait and for what?

 

Just my thinking aloud and wondering what the heck they are doing.

 

Karsten

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6 hours ago, Woldopep said:

Just a crazy thought here. If it’s a “ donor conference “ where countries are giving money for projects, why does Iraq have to revalue ?

 

I remember reading that the "Nassif" woman was complaining because they changed it from a Donor Conference to an Investment Conference.

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23 hours ago, Floridian said:

 

I remember reading that the "Nassif" woman was complaining because they changed it from a Donor Conference to an Investment Conference.

They will pay for any ROI of investments into the country from any other country with revenues from oil. That is what their economy is comprised of. And oil revenues are in .........?

No need to adjust their monetary system. They need to look like charity case. IMO

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2 hours ago, Integrativedoc said:

They will pay for any ROI of investments into the country from any other country with revenues from oil. That is what their economy is comprised of. And oil revenues are in .........?

No need to adjust their monetary system. They need to look like charity case. IMO

 

I just can't see a slew of Companies shipping Heavy Equipment, Recycling machines and the Man Power over there for a promise of a return in Oil Revenues.....that is a million tons of machinery to ship let alone the cost of the Equipment to send out on a "We Promise Note of Oil" What are these companies going to pay their Operators....A Promise? Really, work for a couple years for free and Iraq will make it up to you.

 

They have but a couple hours to make their county and money worth something or they can watch as the KW Conference goes BUST......Investors can look at Iraq as a Huge ATV park where you just do what ever and watch out for Camels, Mine Fields and the occasional RPG from a friendly  Goat Herder.

 

Just my thoughts.....Oh and the above ATV Park will go broke as well.

 

Predictions anyone?

 

Karsten

 

 

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18 hours ago, Karsten said:

 

I just can't see a slew of Companies shipping Heavy Equipment, Recycling machines and the Man Power over there for a promise of a return in Oil Revenues.....that is a million tons of machinery to ship let alone the cost of the Equipment to send out on a "We Promise Note of Oil" What are these companies going to pay their Operators....A Promise? Really, work for a couple years for free and Iraq will make it up to you.

 

They have but a couple hours to make their county and money worth something or they can watch as the KW Conference goes BUST......Investors can look at Iraq as a Huge ATV park where you just do what ever and watch out for Camels, Mine Fields and the occasional RPG from a friendly  Goat Herder.

 

Just my thoughts.....Oh and the above ATV Park will go broke as well.

 

Predictions anyone?

 

Karsten

 

 

Oil revenue is in dollars. They don't function with IQD outside the country. That's what the .......? was for to make you think of how their country purchases things.

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4 hours ago, Botzwana said:

Yes we know ID, you think it will lop...

Actually no I don't. I just don't think its quite time yet. My personal opinion is they will dollarize as much as possible, when the time is right, to reduce circulating dinar; then RI and de-dollarize. My timeline definitely increased when they came out with the 50,000 note. That was a move away from dollarizing. No there is no logic in the whole note count theory. (5) 20's is the same as (1) 100. Lower note count, same amount of dollars. 

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On 2/12/2018 at 8:49 PM, Integrativedoc said:

My timeline definitely increased when they came out with the 50,000 note. 

 

I always thought that the higher denom was going to be used mainly for internal (bank to bank, Corporations and businesses ) transfers of money. Though it does seem to be in the public sphere as well. Not much but they will increase the amount over time.

 

I found this article quite interesting it's an older article from Jan 14, 2016

 

Quote

Iraq's Central Bank has issued new 50,000 dinar notes. But it could have a particularly negative impact on low income earners, simply because of Iraqi consumers' “moodiness”, say economists.

 

http://www.niqash.org/en/articles/economy/5199/

 

Quote

 local economist, Bassem Jamil Antoine. “The aim behind issuing higher denomination bank notes is partially to decrease the size of money being transacted, especially in corporate and business areas.”

 

 

 

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I did not think the Budget was going to pass and rate was going to change before the Kuwait Conference at all, ever.

 

You need to follow our threads with the tags Corruption and Referendum to understand what is really happening.

 

Kurdistan region needs to get mostly into the e-governance computer system and off the fake paperwork system.

 

They have uncover fake employees, get monies returned from fake projects and now International banks cause of the UNSC sanctions being removed.

 

They are fighting corruption of the Kurdistan regional leaders as well as Baghdad government, bankers and businesses.

 

Investment starts with borders, air space, ports and airports to get goods in.

 

Investment companies and monies need to secured and protected from misuse, corruption, and theft.

 

As far as the Budget, they need the most accurate numbers from the Kurdistan region and after an exceptionable lost for this Budget of 2018, they will pass it with the best accurate numbers with the e-governance system and the census.

 

Adabi and the CBI are also making sure the regions get paid through them and not paying the ministers directly anymore the best the can, trying to figure out the best ways to secure the funds, make sure the people are real, and each person needs to personal be in contact with national banks to get the funds.

 

Iraq is still far from safe still, imagine use living under Martial Law here and trying to go to the bank safely. Some cities are real dysfunctional or just really basically destroyed.

 

The CBI at this time also trying to IMF article complaint my trying to get the spread of the CBI rate and the street rate within 2% for 90 days to get to Article 8 and go International.

 

I can go on I am sure, but I wanted yall to know my thoughts.

 

I am not sure about this but I also think the Kurdistan government may have to be dissolved, all Oil, border crossings, ports (if any), and airports need to be turned over to the Baghdad government while the Peshmerga need to incorporate in the Iraqi Army and Police which could take up to 4 years.

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2 hours ago, Botzwana said:

So you think we are 4 more years away then newbieda....

 

That was would be maximum, but Iraq can cut out 80% of the Corruption the first year.

Edited by newbieDA
2018 Budget, this year. Longer they wait.

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Newbie DA,  I believe we all see most of the short falls that Iraq has. So much needs to be done. I agree with all you have stated above, except for the 4 year time frame. Al Abadi has to dismantle the Kurdistan hierarchy. Corruption throughout Iraq is now and has always been rampant. IMO when everyone is looking at the problem of corruption it is infinitely harder for the bad guys to steal. The worst of the theft has already been perpetrated and in time some money will be clawed back. I believe I read an article awhile back about all the thieves that had money in Swiss accounts were forced to pay a penalty of something like 20% by the banks. This is a way for the banks to steal from the thieves before Iraq comes to get their money back. Anyway, I believe although much still needs to be done, the Dam is about break. Will it be an RV,RI or float, not sure. The currency auction alone is bleeding them millions of dollars and is a rampant source of  money laundering. They have stated it will be closed within 1st quarter 2018. I can only know from what I read so I have to believe that this is what will happen. The train is coming into the station, it’s just being pushed in by everyone outside of Iraq instead of driven in by the iraqi’s themselves. Of course this is just my humble opinion.

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I do not see this going out there or four more years. As I stated in an earlier post. Iraq was bitched slapped in Kuwait and in Germany. International money is drying up or being controlled out side of Iraq. I think will put pressure on Iraq to act  or at least I hope so.  

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