Trump tracker: The story of his first year - in seven graphics

[bostonangler]

We're tracking the president's progress on his agenda and how it is received by the American public and the wider world.

And there are interesting - and surprising - comparisons with some of his predecessors.

How are his approval ratings?

Donald Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents in the modern era. His weekly approval rating is languishing at 39% after 12 months in office, according to Gallup.

Presidents Barack Obama (50%), Bill Clinton (54%) and George W Bush (83%) were way higher at this point.

His average over the year is also 39%, which is the lowest recorded of any elected president in his first term. Clinton had the previous lowest at 49%.

Even Gerald Ford was in the high 40s after 12 months in office, according to Gallup, following his politically radioactive pardon of predecessor Richard Nixon for the Watergate scandal.

When Mr Trump assumed office on 20 January he had the lowest approval rating of any incoming president. He won the election with anaemic numbers, so it's unsurprising they're still poor.

What may alarm the White House is some opinion polls indicate support is slipping for Mr Trump among his core voters, including white men without a college degree and rural Americans.

If his ratings continue to feel gravity's pull, expect anxious conversations in the Republican ranks as Congress gears up for the November 2018 mid-terms.

And what about overseas?

The image of US leadership has fallen since Mr Trump took office, according to Gallup, falling 18% points since Barack Obama left office.

It's also four points below Gallup's previous lowest point which was under George W Bush - 34%.

Has Trump moved to cut illegal immigration?

Building a border wall paid for by Mexico was President Trump's signature issue during the election campaign but it is no nearer to happening.

There are prototypes built but the Democrats have refused to approve a penny towards it and Mexico's leaders say they will never pay.

• Six things that could topple Trump's border wall

President Trump continues to press Congress to change US immigration laws, including ending the visa lottery system and "chain migration" that gives priority to relatives of existing legal US residents.

In the meantime, he has signed two executive memos that instruct immigration officers to take a much tougher approach towards enforcing existing measures.

In October, the Trump administration announced it was ending the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (Daca) programme, which granted normalised residency status to roughly 700,000 undocumented immigrants who entered the US when they were young.

The White House and Congress have attempted to negotiate a means to enact legislation providing similar protections, but no final agreement has been reached.

Immigration enforcement - and President Trump's tough rhetoric - may have led to a drop in the number of people trying to cross illegally into the US in the early months of the new administration, but the numbers rebounded in 2017.

The new president's talk of a crackdown on illegal immigrants makes it sound as if they had an easy ride under President Obama, but he was labelled deporter-in-chief for a reason.

Between 2009-15, the Obama administration deported more than 2.5 million people - most of whom had been convicted of some form of criminal offence or were recent arrivals.

But an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants still live in the US, many from Mexico.

The Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has launched a series of raids across the country since Mr Trump was elected - a change from the Obama administration's focus on areas along the US border - leading to a 40% monthly increase over the latter part of the previous administration.

That hasn't led to more deportations yet, however. Instead, there is now a backlog of more than 600,000 cases awaiting final review by immigration judges.

How is the economy faring under Trump?

During the campaign, Mr Trump vowed to create 25 million jobs over 10 years and become "the greatest jobs president... ever".

He used to claim the actual unemployment rate was more than 40%. Now he's America's CEO, he's embracing the same jobless figures he once dismissed as "phony".

The basic trajectory of the economy under President Trump remains the same as it was under President Obama.

The jobless rate hit a 17-year low of 4.1% in October and has remained there, putting the labour market at or close to so-called full employment after 81 consecutive months of growth.

Stock markets have hit record highs, oil prices remain low, consumer and small-business confidence is buoyant, and inflation is under control.

Retail sales has begun to pick up, although auto sales declined in 2017. Wage growth remains sluggish.

The White House has set a growth target of 3%, which the US surpassed in the second and third quarters of 2017, marking 42 straight months of economic expansion.

And Republicans hope that their tax cuts will help boost growth, although experts argue about whether history provides evidence that one follows the other.

Latest news on the US economy

What bills has Trump signed into law or passed on his own?

"We have signed more legislation than anybody. We broke the record of Harry Truman," Mr Trump said in late December.

The president has signed off 107 bills during his first year in office, trailing his three most recent predecessors in totals, according to the nonpartisan website GovTrack, which tracks bills in US Congress.

Mr Trump falls behind George W Bush (118) and Barack Obama (124), but he did manage to pass the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax system in more than three decades before the year's end.

The president has also claimed he has passed more legislation than any president since Harry Truman, which was only correct during his first 100 days in office. He has since fallen behind previous administrations, GovTrack found.

More than 30 pieces of legislation signed into law by the president appear to be modifications or extensions to existing law, an analysis by National Public Radio shows.

A dozen bills focused on honouring people or organisations, including renaming a building in Nashville and appointing individuals to a museum board, the analysis found.

The president also exercises political power through unilateral executive orders and memoranda, which allow him to bypass the legislative process in Congress in certain policy areas.

We have signed more legislation than anybody. We broke the record of Harry Truman. President Trump, 27 December

He wasted little time in using this tool, moving to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, cut business regulations and push ahead with the construction of two controversial pipelines.

But executive orders are limited in their power, because they cannot assign those agencies new funds or introduce new laws. Both of those powers are held by Congress.

One thing that didn't go well - healthcare

Healthcare was always going to be an early test for President Trump after he made it a centrepiece of his election campaign.

President Obama's Affordable Care Act helped more than 20 million previously uninsured Americans to finally get health cover, but it has suffered from rising premiums and Mr Trump said he would "immediately repeal and replace" it.

The House Republican bill eventually passed despite a damning assessment from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, which said it would result in 24 million more uninsured Americans by 2026.

But the Senate failed to bring its own controversial version to a vote, citing a lack of support. It marked an embarrassing episode for President Trump and the Republican Party, which controls the presidency and both chambers of Congress for the first time in 11 years.

But Mr Trump has moved to upend his predecessor's signature law in other ways. He suspended payments to insurance companies that help them offset the cost of insuring poorer, sicker Americans.

The administration also cut funding to encourage Americans to sign up on the government-run health exchanges while Congressional Republicans stuck a provision in the tax bill that removed the individual mandate, the requirement that all Americans buy health insurance or face a fine. Many viewed the mandate as the key to ensuring the law could work.

Repealing the mandate could prompt healthier Americans to skip insurance, driving up premiums for sicker customers.

The CBO estimates the number of uninsured Americans could increase by 13 million by 2027 while premiums on the individual market could rise 10% a year over the next decade. But until the mandate is official removed in January 2019, it remains unclear whether it will roil the insurance markets

 

 

 

 

Some good, some bad, certainly not the greatest ever.

B/A

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

........................................

[Flash101]

My Fav GIF

 

101

Edited January 19, 2018 by Flash101

[Shabibilicious]

7 minutes ago, SgtFuryUSCZ said:

........................................

 

The facts didn't prop your earthly orange messiah up on a golden pedestal, eh?  

 

GO RV, then BV

Edited January 19, 2018 by Shabibilicious

[bostonangler]

7 minutes ago, SgtFuryUSCZ said:

........................................

What's BS? That he is number 4 in approval? Number 4 in stock market growth?(that one really did surprise me)  Number 4 in bills signed into law? He is doing good in border arrests.

 

B/A

[bostonangler]

Well that explains it... Kinda.

 

 

The stock market has rallied during Donald Trump’s presidency, with the S&P 500 up nearly 24% during Trump’s first year in office. But here’s a surprise: It did even better during President Obama’s first year, rising 35.3%.

 

Source: Yahoo Finance

More

Presidents are quick to take credit when the stock market and the broader economy perform well under their watch. Trump has tweeted many times about the booming stock market of the past year, the strong job market and a number of other economic gains. Obama was a more circumspect tweeter, but he, too, touted economic gains during his administration, usually in speeches.

Here’s the thing, though: Presidential policies have a lot less to do with financial markets and the underlying economy than politicians and their supporters like to think. The same goes for downturns in the economy. An examination of the circumstances during the first years of both the Obama and Trump administrations bears that out.

Obama, of course, took office in the midst of a financial crash and near-depression. His stock-market numbers look good because stocks were most of the way through a crash when he took office, soon to rebound. The total decline in the S&P 500 from the peak in 2007 to the trough in 2009 was 56%. Stocks had already fallen 46% by the time Obama took office. So there was only a modest drop left on Inauguration day in January 2009. Stocks bottomed out less than two months later, and began a climb that continues to this day.

Did Obama do much to boost stock values and help the economy? Probably not much more (or less) than any president would have done under the circumstances. Congress passed a huge stimulus bill shortly after Obama’s inauguration, and even though it was unpopular among some Republicans, any other president probably would have signed something similar, since fiscal stimulus is essentially a standard government response to economic crisis.

The Federal Reserve probably did more to boost stocks than Obama or Congress, through its novel quantitative-easing monetary stimulus, which turned out to be powerful financial medicine. The nonpartisan Fed, in fact, probably has more influence over the economy than any other institution, public or private—and certainly more influence than the White House.

Trump clearly benefited from an economy that had been gaining steam for several years, with companies adding millions of jobs in the years before Trump took office, and more or less continuing the same pace of expansion once he entered the White House. Trump did, however, stir animal spirits with his promise to cut taxes—a promise fulfilled late last year, when he signed a $1.5 trillion tax-cut bill.

The Trump tax cuts help explain why stocks jumped almost immediately after Trump’s election in November 2016. Markets had been expecting a Hillarious Clinton victory, which probably would have meant little change in federal policy—and either no tax cut, or a very modest one. Stocks would probably be up without the Trump tax cuts anyway—since corporate earnings have been strong without them–but by not as much.

Still, Trump partisans crowing about a Trump premium in the stock market ought to be careful. Presidencies don’t always end the way they begin, with broader market forces sometimes overwhelming policy prescriptions out of Washington.

Yahoo Finance is tracking the Trump economy compared with six prior presidents going back to Jimmy Carter, and there are some vivid lessons in the data. The economy under Carter, for instance, started on a tear, then flattened out, contributing to Carter’s reelection loss in 1980. Under Ronald Reagan, the job and stock markets started out weak, then took off. A recession greeted George W. Bush in 2001, followed by a boom, followed by another recession far worse than the first. Obama took office amid disaster but ended up with relatively strong numbers after 8 years.

Stocks are fast out of the gate under Trump—but the true measure of presidential success is longevity, not sprinting speed. Trump still has three years to go, and what happened in Year 1 may bear no resemblance at all to what happens in Year 4.

 

 

B/A

[Shabibilicious]

3 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

Well that explains it... Kinda.

 

 

The stock market has rallied during Donald Trump’s presidency, with the S&P 500 up nearly 24% during Trump’s first year in office. But here’s a surprise: It did even better during President Obama’s first year, rising 35.3%.

 

Source: Yahoo Finance

More

Presidents are quick to take credit when the stock market and the broader economy perform well under their watch. Trump has tweeted many times about the booming stock market of the past year, the strong job market and a number of other economic gains. Obama was a more circumspect tweeter, but he, too, touted economic gains during his administration, usually in speeches.

Here’s the thing, though: Presidential policies have a lot less to do with financial markets and the underlying economy than politicians and their supporters like to think. The same goes for downturns in the economy. An examination of the circumstances during the first years of both the Obama and Trump administrations bears that out.

Obama, of course, took office in the midst of a financial crash and near-depression. His stock-market numbers look good because stocks were most of the way through a crash when he took office, soon to rebound. The total decline in the S&P 500 from the peak in 2007 to the trough in 2009 was 56%. Stocks had already fallen 46% by the time Obama took office. So there was only a modest drop left on Inauguration day in January 2009. Stocks bottomed out less than two months later, and began a climb that continues to this day.

Did Obama do much to boost stock values and help the economy? Probably not much more (or less) than any president would have done under the circumstances. Congress passed a huge stimulus bill shortly after Obama’s inauguration, and even though it was unpopular among some Republicans, any other president probably would have signed something similar, since fiscal stimulus is essentially a standard government response to economic crisis.

The Federal Reserve probably did more to boost stocks than Obama or Congress, through its novel quantitative-easing monetary stimulus, which turned out to be powerful financial medicine. The nonpartisan Fed, in fact, probably has more influence over the economy than any other institution, public or private—and certainly more influence than the White House.

Trump clearly benefited from an economy that had been gaining steam for several years, with companies adding millions of jobs in the years before Trump took office, and more or less continuing the same pace of expansion once he entered the White House. Trump did, however, stir animal spirits with his promise to cut taxes—a promise fulfilled late last year, when he signed a $1.5 trillion tax-cut bill.

The Trump tax cuts help explain why stocks jumped almost immediately after Trump’s election in November 2016. Markets had been expecting a Hillarious Clinton victory, which probably would have meant little change in federal policy—and either no tax cut, or a very modest one. Stocks would probably be up without the Trump tax cuts anyway—since corporate earnings have been strong without them–but by not as much.

Still, Trump partisans crowing about a Trump premium in the stock market ought to be careful. Presidencies don’t always end the way they begin, with broader market forces sometimes overwhelming policy prescriptions out of Washington.

Yahoo Finance is tracking the Trump economy compared with six prior presidents going back to Jimmy Carter, and there are some vivid lessons in the data. The economy under Carter, for instance, started on a tear, then flattened out, contributing to Carter’s reelection loss in 1980. Under Ronald Reagan, the job and stock markets started out weak, then took off. A recession greeted George W. Bush in 2001, followed by a boom, followed by another recession far worse than the first. Obama took office amid disaster but ended up with relatively strong numbers after 8 years.

Stocks are fast out of the gate under Trump—but the true measure of presidential success is longevity, not sprinting speed. Trump still has three years to go, and what happened in Year 1 may bear no resemblance at all to what happens in Year 4.

 

 

B/A

 

We may not all agree on things but one thing is for certain......the last 9 years of upward market movement has been fantastic.  

 

GO RV, then BV

[yota691]

20 hours ago, bostonangler said:

It did even better during President Obama’s first year, rising 35.3%.

Obama spent 10 Trillion dollars of taxpayers money...Bailout the banks, Bailout General Motors, Bailout the Insurance companies. Bailout all his cronies...Bailing out to make fictitious numbers..You didn't build that.. the Bailout build that...

[bostonangler]

51 minutes ago, yota691 said:

Obama spent 10 Trillion dollars of taxpayers money...Bailout the banks, Bailout General Motors, Bailout the Insurance companies. Bailout all his cronies...Bailing out to make fictitious numbers..You didn't build that.. the Bailout build that...

 

 

How soon we forget here in  The United States of Amnesia

 

Complete list here

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Economic_Stabilization_Act_of_2008

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Division A of Pub.L. 110–343, 122 Stat. 3765, enacted October 3, 2008), commonly referred to as a bailout of the U.S. financial system, is a law enacted subsequently to the subprime mortgage crisis authorizing the United States Secretary of the Treasury to spend up to $700 billion to purchase distressed assets, especially mortgage-backed securities, and supply cash directly to banks. The funds for purchase of distressed assets were mostly redirected to inject capital into banks and other financial institutions while the Treasury continued to examine the usefulness of targeted asset purchases.^[1][2] Both foreign and domestic banks are included in the program. The Act was proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson during the global financial crisis of 2008 and signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008.

[nstoolman1]

So....It's Bush's fault....Again. 

The opposition can't have it both way. 

They don't want to go back and try the past administration for crimes they have committed but 

they will go back and blame past Rep administrations for issues. 

Dems cried foul and other things when the Republicans were in a controlling position and wanted to shut down over spending.

Now the Dems are blackmailing a country over the illegals, DACA and chain migration. For every illegal that is given legal status

there are up to 25 more that can come in legally. 3.6 million is a number they are throwing around to give legal status to.

That is a potential 90,000,000 people added to the welfare roles. 90,000,000 more dem voters. 

Tax payers will be saddled with the new costs.  

I feel the wall can't be built fast enough.

I feel ICE and DOJ can't arrest the politicians/LEOS that support sanctuary states/cities fast enough.

 

Blackmail: plain and simple. 

 

 

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

1 hour ago, nstoolman1 said:

So....It's Bush's fault....Again. 

The opposition can't have it both way. 

They don't want to go back and try the past administration for crimes they have committed but 

they will go back and blame past Rep administrations for issues. 

Dems cried foul and other things when the Republicans were in a controlling position and wanted to shut down over spending.

Now the Dems are blackmailing a country over the illegals, DACA and chain migration. For every illegal that is given legal status

there are up to 25 more that can come in legally. 3.6 million is a number they are throwing around to give legal status to.

That is a potential 90,000,000 people added to the welfare roles. 90,000,000 more dem voters. 

Tax payers will be saddled with the new costs.  

I feel the wall can't be built fast enough.

I feel ICE and DOJ can't arrest the politicians/LEOS that support system" rel="">support sanctuary states/cities fast enough.

 

Blackmail: plain and simple. 

 

 

 

***///          Well said, Sir !  

 

.

[bostonangler]

On ‎1‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 3:00 PM, nstoolman1 said:

So....It's Bush's fault....Again. 

The opposition can't have it both way. 

They don't want to go back and try the past administration for crimes they have committed but 

they will go back and blame past Rep administrations for issues. 

Dems cried foul and other things when the Republicans were in a controlling position and wanted to shut down over spending.

Now the Dems are blackmailing a country over the illegals, DACA and chain migration. For every illegal that is given legal status

there are up to 25 more that can come in legally. 3.6 million is a number they are throwing around to give legal status to.

That is a potential 90,000,000 people added to the welfare roles. 90,000,000 more dem voters. 

Tax payers will be saddled with the new costs.  

I feel the wall can't be built fast enough.

I feel ICE and DOJ can't arrest the politicians/LEOS that support system">support sanctuary states/cities fast enough.

 

Blackmail: plain and simple. 

 

 

 

I simply pointed out that "W" did the bailouts. Yota seemed to think that was Obama. Of course "W", Obama, or even Trump have no control over The Federal Reserve. That is a private bank who owns America's financial system. As for the recent vote and shutdown, 45 Republicans and 5 Democrats voted to avoid the shutdown. Why did 5 Republicans vote to shutdown? Why can't a one party government get anything done? The problems are much bigger the system.

 

I see people negging the historical fact that the bailout was signed by Bush... What's up with that? Do they want to rewrite history?

 

B/A

Edited January 22, 2018 by bostonangler

[yota691]

19 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

Yota seemed to think that was Obama.

When Bush left office, the bailout remain on the White House Desk. Obama implemented the Bailout. You can choose to ignore the facts and twist an turn it to fit your narrative. 

[Shabibilicious]

9 minutes ago, yota691 said:

When Bush left office, the bailout remain on the White House Desk. Obama implemented the Bailout. You can choose to ignore the facts and twist an turn it to fit your narrative. 

 

Like those who refuse to acknowledge the massive upward market movement during President Obama's tenure.

 

 

GO RV, then BV

[bostonangler]

2 hours ago, yota691 said:

When Bush left office, the bailout remain on the White House Desk. Obama implemented the Bailout. You can choose to ignore the facts and twist an turn it to fit your narrative. 

The Act was proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson during the global financial crisis of 2008 and signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008.

 

Although I guess these days the truth doesn't matter. Because the truth is presidents really don't have much power to change anything. I think even Trump who thought he would walk in a do whatever he wanted, has learned he is merely a figure head. The real power lies with the Bilderbergers, the Banksters and small number of others who decide who wins the war, who lives or dies, who gets to... Well you know. People refuse to believe there so few who control most-everything. Heck I bet you didn't know our presidents are actually employees of the British Royal Crown.

 

B/A