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Study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes


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President Trump has promised to find those responsible for disclosing sensitive information. But getting to the bottom of who is behind the leaks may be easier said than done. Leak investigations generally start by process of elimination, and the more people who had access to the leaked information, the trickier it is to pinpoint the source, say former FBI officials and government secrecy experts. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
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By Rowan Scarborough - The Washington Times - Monday, June 19, 2017

A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at post election polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in U.S. elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.

As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

 

Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.

Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.

In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

 

On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”

The ODU professors, who stand by their work in the face of attacks from the left, concluded that in 2008 as few as 38,000 and as many as 2.8 million noncitizens voted.

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.

These numbers are more in line with the unverified estimates given by President Trump, who said the number of ballots cast by noncitizens was the reason he lost the popular vote to Hillarious Clinton.

Last month, the president signed an executive order setting up a commission to try to find on-the-ground truth in illegal voting. Headed by Vice President Mike Pence, the panel also will look at outdated voter lists across the nation with names of dead people and multiple registrants.

For 2012, Just Facts said, 3.2 million to 5.6 million noncitizens were registered to vote and 1.2 million to 3.6 million of them voted.

Mr. Agresti lays out his reasoning in a series of complicated calculations, which he compares to U.S. Census Bureau figures for noncitizen residents. Polls show noncitizens vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

“The details are technical, but the figure I calculated is based on a more conservative margin of sampling error and a methodology that I consider to be more accurate,” Mr. Agresti told The Washington Times.

He believes the Harvard/YouGov researchers based their “zero” claim on two flawed assumptions. First, they assumed that people who said they voted and identified a candidate did not vote unless their names showed up in a database.

“This is illogical, because such databases are unlikely to verify voters who use fraudulent identities, and millions of noncitizens use them,” Mr. Agresti said.

He cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting.

Second, Harvard assumed that respondent citizens sometimes misidentified themselves as noncitizens but also concluded that noncitizens never misidentified themselves as citizens, Mr. Agresti said.

“This is irrational, because illegal immigrants often claim they are citizens in order to conceal the fact that they are in the U.S. illegally,” he said.

Some of the polled noncitizens denied they were registered to vote when publicly available databases show that they were, he said.

This conclusion, he said, is backed by the Harvard/YouGov study’s findings of consumer and vote data matches for 90 percent of participants but only 41 percent of noncitizen respondents.

As to why his numbers are higher than the besieged ODU professors’ study, Mr. Agresti said: “I calculated the margin of sampling error in a more cautious way to ensure greater confidence in the results, and I used a slightly different methodology that I think is more accurate.”

There is hard evidence outside of polling that noncitizens do vote. Conservative activists have conducted limited investigations in Maryland and Virginia that found thousands of aliens were registered.

These inquiries, such as comparing noncitizen jury pool rejections to voter rolls, captured just a snapshot. But conservatives say they show there is a much broader problem that a comprehensive probe by the Pence commission could uncover.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation, which fights voter fraud, released one of its most comprehensive reports last month.

Its investigation found that Virginia removed more than 5,500 noncitizens from voter lists, including 1,852 people who had cast more than 7,000 ballots. The people volunteered their status, most likely when acquiring driver’s licenses. The Public Interest Legal Foundation said there are likely many more illegal voters on Virginia’s rolls who have never admitted to being noncitizens.

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I don't see how anyone can dispute the fact that non U.S. citizens voted when our then president went on the air and stated they could vote in the election and that is what makes them a citizen. Participation is all that is needed. No fear of I.C.E. interfering either. 

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Voting-385x200.jpg

The Heritage Foundation's voter fraud database now documents 1,071 cases of voter fraud. (Photo: iStock Photos)


Jason Snead@jasonwsnead

Jason Snead is a policy analyst in The Heritage Foundation's Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies. Read his research.

Emily Hall

Emily Hall is a member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation, and a member of Harvard University's Class of 2018.

As the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity convenes its first meeting on Wednesday, the issue of voter fraud in American elections has become even more contentious and hyperbolic.

One of the left’s main arguments against reform is that voter fraud simply does not occur. How liberals arrive at this conclusion, we cannot say.

Time and again, studies and analyses point to one incontrovertible conclusion: that voter fraud is a real and pressing issue that deserves serious solutions, and The Heritage Foundation has the evidence to prove it.

On Thursday, The Heritage Foundation is releasing a new edition of its voter fraud database. Featuring well over 100 new cases, the database documents 1,071 instances of voter fraud spanning 47 states, including 938 criminal convictions.

 

This revamped edition of the database separates cases by type of disposition, allowing readers to easily distinguish not only what type of fraud occurred but the outcome of the case—criminal convictions, pre-trial diversion programs, and other types of adjudication used in various states and counties across the United States.

Below are a few of the egregious examples recently added to the database.

Virginia

Andrew Spieles, a former James Madison University student, pleaded guilty to a charge stemming from his false submission of 18 voter registration forms during the summer of 2016.

He had been working for Harrisonburg VOTES, a voter registration organization affiliated with the Democratic Party, and used false birth dates and Social Security numbers to register deceased persons to vote. Spieles was given prison time for his crime.

This incident is just one of hundreds of cases in the database where individuals illegally registered dead people, names out of the phone book, or others to vote.

While Spieles was caught before votes could be cast on behalf of those falsely registered individuals, there have been many other cases in which ballots were successfully cast in the name of deceased people.

In fact, a 2012 Pew study concluded that 1.8 million voters remained on the rolls after their passing—a grave vulnerability to the integrity of our elections.

Maryland

Fredericus Hubertus Slicher, an illegal alien living in Baltimore, was convicted of numerous charges in 2014. He was residing illegally in the United States, collecting Medicare and Social Security benefits, and voting in U.S. elections.

Slicher had been present in the United States illegally since his temporary work visa expired in 1969. He was convicted of child abuse in 2004, was a registered sex offender, and yet he continued to vote numerous times despite being ineligible.

His case was referred to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and he was sentenced to three months’ imprisonment, one year’s supervised release, and was ordered to pay $48,928 in restitution.

The newest additions to the database included a dozen cases of illegal voting by noncitizens. This is a particularly important issue to address, as each ballot cast by a noncitizen effectively nullifies the ballot of an eligible voter, effectively disenfranchising American citizens.

Ohio

Debbie Tingler of Reynoldsburg, Ohio, pleaded guilty (Case No. 12 CR 005249) to illegal voting in 2013. She had registered to vote, requested absentee ballots, and submitted those ballots under two names—Debbie Tingler and Deborah Tingler.

She was given a suspended sentence of 120 days’ imprisonment, and she was ordered to pay a $200 fine and court costs.

Tingler’s experience is not uncommon. There are dozens of cases in the database where individuals voted multiple times in the same election.

Given the fact that few states have adequate policies and procedures in place to detect and deter fraud—and prosecutors seldom prioritize these cases—it is likely that far more double voters, absentee-ballot fraudsters, and ineligible voters get away scot-free than are ever brought to justice.

The Heritage Foundation’s voter fraud database is by no means comprehensive, but its 1,071 proven instances of fraud, which took place across all manner of elections and in nearly every state, highlight the importance—and the urgency—of the work of the Election Integrity Commission.

What is needed now is more data to permit analysis aimed at determining, among other things, whether the nation’s voter registration records are accurate or riddled with errors.

In the coming months, the commission—which includes Heritage’s own Hans von Spakovsky, senior legal fellow and one of the nation’s foremost election law experts—will seek to gather this information.

Unfortunately, so far, even innocuous requests for public voter records have been met with hyperbolic rhetoric and stonewalling in some states.

This begs the question, why? If fraud is as rare as liberals say, and if state protections against it are as robust as we are told, why withhold data that would prove these claims?

Perhaps liberals are afraid that the data might, in fact, say the opposite.

One can deny facts for only so long, and with this newest release of The Heritage Foundation’s voter fraud database, the evidence is clear and incontrovertible: Voter fraud is real, and we ignore it at our own peril.

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On 7/17/2017 at 11:13 PM, nstoolman1 said:

I don't see how anyone can dispute the fact that non U.S. citizens voted when our then president went on the air and stated they could vote in the election and that is what makes them a citizen. Participation is all that is needed. No fear of I.C.E. interfering either. 

 

Thank God that chapter is over....now if he would just take a permanent vacation somewhere else.

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Adverb

  • 1 as submodifier Nearly; almost.

    ‘the disease destroyed virtually all the vineyards in Orange County’
     
    ‘the college became virtually bankrupt’
     
 
 
  •  
  • 2 By means of virtual reality techniques.

     
     
 
  1. 2.1 By means of a computer; computationally.
     
    So which are you claiming?
    Nearly or almost non-existent - as in it wouldn't affect the outcome of an election? 
     
    or by means of a computer - as in the Soros-owned companies that made most of the voting machines used in the past election?
     
     
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9 minutes ago, BJinMontreal said:

Adverb

  • 1 as submodifier Nearly; almost.

    ‘the disease destroyed virtually all the vineyards in Orange County’
     
    ‘the college became virtually bankrupt’
     
 
 
  •  
  • 2 By means of virtual reality techniques.

     
     
 
  1. 2.1 By means of a computer; computationally.
     
    So which are you claiming?
    Nearly or almost non-existent - as in it wouldn't affect the outcome of an election? 
     
    or by means of a computer - as in the Soros-owned companies that made most of the voting machines used in the past election?
     
     

 

Number 1.  ;)  Now, if you think you can do better than every one of our individual Secretaries of State with respect to the voting rolls.....by all means, secure yourself a temporary work visa and get down here and do it.  We'll need your Name, address, voting history, phone number and the last four of your Social Security number...or whatever personal identification number you Canadians hold close to your breast for security reasons.....supply all those things and you should satisfy Donald's requirements to work on his voter fraud circus team.

 

GO RV, then BV

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Why would you want my information? 

It's obviously NOT relevant enough to vote in key Democratic states, which all claim no illegals voted ... so why should I provide it for you?

 

Voter fraud circus?

 

So you're still under the impression that a fair and partial election can't be overturned by nefarious means?

 

While the Left Ignores Voter Fraud, More Evidence Mounts to Prove Them Wrong

Jason Snead / @jasonwsnead / Robert Ordway / May 03, 2017/

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VotePin-385x200.jpg

The Heritage Foundation has documented 773 confirmed criminal convictions in 492 voter fraud cases, spanning 44 states. (Photo: iStock Photos)

Commentary By

Portrait of Jason Snead

Jason Snead @jasonwsnead

Jason Snead is a policy analyst in The Heritage Foundation's Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies. Read his research.

Robert Ordway

Robert Ordway is a member of the Young Leader's Program at The Heritage Foundation.

The 2016 elections have passed, but courts still have plenty of work to do sorting out cases of voter fraud throughout the country.

Convictions have continued to roll in this spring, and The Heritage Foundation’s voter fraud database is growing longer by the day.

This week, we are adding 19 convictions, including cases from Texas, Colorado, and Illinois. These are just the latest convictions. Yet despite the overwhelming evidence, the left prefers to bury its head in the sand and refuses to acknowledge the reality of Voter fraud.

Take one example from Kansas. When Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach claimed his first conviction in a voter fraud case against a non-U.S. citizen, opponents of the conviction had no interest in dealing with the facts.

 

Instead, some groups on the left—like the liberal news site Think Progress—accused Kobach of “voter suppression.” Another Salon article completely dismissed Kobach without addressing the evidence he found, saying, “Someday he’ll have evidence of a problem that doesn’t exist.”

In many states, voter registration requires proof of citizenship. The left calls such policies anti-American. But is that really such a radical idea, that voters in a U.S. election would have to be U.S. citizens?

If liberals want evidence, then Heritage has it. To date, we have documented 773 confirmed criminal convictions in 492 voter fraud cases spanning 44 states.

Here are a few of the newest entries to the database:

  • Toni Lee Newbill, of Colorado, pleaded guilty to voting twice for her deceased father, once in the 2013 general election and again in the Republican Primary of 2016. Newbill was sentenced to 18 months of unsupervised probation, 30 hours of community service, and was ordered to pay a $500 fine and additional court fees.
  • Noe Olvera, of Texas, pleaded guilty to a federal bribery charge. Olvera, a postman, admitted to taking a $1,000 bribe from a paid campaign worker in exchange for a list of the names and addresses of mail-in ballot recipients on his postal route.

After a two-year investigation into local voting fraud, hidden camera footage surfaced revealing a uniformed and on-the-job Olvera “negotiating an exchange of money for mail-in voter lists.” Olvera is scheduled to be sentenced on May 25.

  • Steveland Kidd, of Illinois, pleaded guilty to two counts of absentee ballot abuse during a municipal election in April 2013. Kidd took possession of, and delivered, an absentee ballot to election authorities despite being legally barred from doing so.

The crime is a Class 3 felony. Kidd was sentenced to 12 days in the St. Clair County Jail and is now barred from engaging in campaign-related activities or electioneering.

  • Brian McDouglar, a resident of Cahokia, Illinois, was sentenced to two years in prison on charges of falsifying or tampering with an absentee ballot—a class 3 felony. McDouglar illegally took an absentee ballot from a voter he was not related to, and then placed it in the mail.

Clearly, absentee voting remains particularly vulnerable to fraud.

Simply put, in most states there are few measures in place to sufficiently verify the identity of those casting absentee ballots. Signatures can be forged—a problem that can be addressed by requiring the voter to include a photocopied valid ID along with the absentee ballot.

But more robust identification requirements would only solve part of the problem. They cannot defend against the pernicious targeting of absentee voters by pressuring, coercing, or “assisting” them in filling out their ballots in order to assure that particular candidates or causes prevail.

So long as states continue to allow the names of deceased voters and residents who have moved away to remain on their voter rolls, they are leaving the door wide open to fraudsters who are willing to take advantage of the system by voting in their names.

The Heritage Foundation published “Does Your Vote Count?,” a guide to help voters and policymakers understand the issue of election fraud. That report provides policy recommendations that states should adopt to help thwart illegal activity and ensure that the election process remains free and fair for all.

Procedures that can be implemented include requiring a photographic, government-issued ID and proof of citizenship to register to vote. In addition, participating in an interstate voter registration crosscheck program will help guarantee that people are not voting twice.

Secretaries of state should verify voter registration data with other state and federal agencies, such as the state Department of Motor Vehicles and the Social Security Administration. Such measures will offer a barrier of protection not only to eligible voters, but also to the electoral process in general.

A single fraudulent vote does more than just cancel out the vote of another American. It puts a stain on the results of the entire election.

If voters are discouraged to participate in what they perceive as a tainted process, it only empowers those who would seek to steal elections.

Instead of vilifying those who fulfill their duties to protect the electoral process, the left should embrace the facts. Voter fraud is real, and we must take seriously the task of securing the integrity of our elections.

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It's NOT the cases that matter - it's the number of votes!!!

 

Study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes

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What's Behind Claims That 800,000 Noncitizen Voted For Hillarious Clinton
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By Rowan Scarborough - The Washington Times - Monday, June 19, 2017

A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at postelection polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in U.S. elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.

As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

 

Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.

Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.

In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

 

On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”

The ODU professors, who stand by their work in the face of attacks from the left, concluded that in 2008 as few as 38,000 and as many as 2.8 million noncitizens voted.

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.

These numbers are more in line with the unverified estimates given by President Trump, who said the number of ballots cast by noncitizens was the reason he lost the popular vote to Hillarious Clinton.

Last month, the president signed an executive order setting up a commission to try to find on-the-ground truth in illegal voting. Headed by Vice President Mike Pence, the panel also will look at outdated voter lists across the nation with names of dead people and multiple registrants.

For 2012, Just Facts said, 3.2 million to 5.6 million noncitizens were registered to vote and 1.2 million to 3.6 million of them voted.

Mr. Agresti lays out his reasoning in a series of complicated calculations, which he compares to U.S. Census Bureau figures for noncitizen residents. Polls show noncitizens vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

“The details are technical, but the figure I calculated is based on a more conservative margin of sampling error and a methodology that I consider to be more accurate,” Mr. Agresti told The Washington Times.

He believes the Harvard/YouGov researchers based their “zero” claim on two flawed assumptions. First, they assumed that people who said they voted and identified a candidate did not vote unless their names showed up in a database.

“This is illogical, because such databases are unlikely to verify voters who use fraudulent identities, and millions of noncitizens use them,” Mr. Agresti said.

He cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting.

Second, Harvard assumed that respondent citizens sometimes misidentified themselves as noncitizens but also concluded that noncitizens never misidentified themselves as citizens, Mr. Agresti said.

“This is irrational, because illegal immigrants often claim they are citizens in order to conceal the fact that they are in the U.S. illegally,” he said.

Some of the polled noncitizens denied they were registered to vote when publicly available databases show that they were, he said.

This conclusion, he said, is backed by the Harvard/YouGov study’s findings of consumer and vote data matches for 90 percent of participants but only 41 percent of noncitizen respondents.

As to why his numbers are higher than the besieged ODU professors’ study, Mr. Agresti said: “I calculated the margin of sampling error in a more cautious way to ensure greater confidence in the results, and I used a slightly different methodology that I think is more accurate.”

There is hard evidence outside of polling that noncitizens do vote. Conservative activists have conducted limited investigations in Maryland and Virginia that found thousands of aliens were registered.

These inquiries, such as comparing noncitizen jury pool rejections to voter rolls, captured just a snapshot. But conservatives say they show there is a much broader problem that a comprehensive probe by the Pence commission could uncover.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation, which fights voter fraud, released one of its most comprehensive reports last month.

Its investigation found that Virginia removed more than 5,500 noncitizens from voter lists, including 1,852 people who had cast more than 7,000 ballots. The people volunteered their status, most likely when acquiring driver’s licenses. The Public Interest Legal Foundation said there are likely many more illegal voters on Virginia’s rolls who have never admitted to being noncitizens.

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I want to see an apology to Trump from the left and all the left news networks and Obama stating that there was no voter fraud from illegals. .

. Lie deny deflect. Don't expect the truth from liars and thieves that make American citizens work their asses off.

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8 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

773 cases, eh...

 

Consider this, Shabs... 🤔 WHAT IF the situation were reversed?  CANEXIT!  Let's say instead, that it's our northern border being flooded with millions of informed, freedom loving canucks like our good friend BJ, eh?  Same basic deal (hypothetically)... they cross illegally, vote in our elections, take our jobs... except they aren't from the freaking third world so they're not here to roof houses and pick fruit... they'll be after your job.  On the bright side, most already speak English and aren't known for carrying diseases so there would be less disruption for our school children.  Anyway, being a little further down the path of tyranny than we are... hey, they just wanna be free!  Freedom of speech, freedom to bear arms, freedom to make their own decisions about their healthcare... and the weather is milder!  Most of them vote conservative.  Stop me when you think the commies on the left would get nervous... 1?  773?  3.5 million?  5.7 million?  How many are acceptable?

 

 

8 hours ago, BJinMontreal said:

It's NOT the cases that matter - it's the number of votes!!!

 

BJinMontreal :tiphat:You're a true patriot!  😘  Are you this passionate about Canadian politics?

 
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19 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

773 cases, eh.....just a fuzz short of the 3.5 million Donald needs to satisfy his popularity ego.  What's that work out to....around 0.00002% of confirmed voter fraud cases.  Yikes!!!!!...or should I say "virtually nonexistent"?  ;)

 

GO RV, then BV

:shakehead: 1 fraudulent vote is too many, especially if it could be prevented with a simple voter ID requirement.  So at what point does “virtually non-existent” become a problem?  After all, it takes is 1 fraudulent vote to change an election.

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On 7/22/2017 at 8:26 AM, RV ME said:

:shakehead: 1 fraudulent vote is too many, especially if it could be prevented with a simple voter ID requirement.  So at what point does “virtually non-existent” become a problem?  After all, it takes is 1 fraudulent vote to change an election.

 

 

Add in rampant Gerrymandering and watch people's heads explode.  B)

 

GO RV, then BV

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1 hour ago, Shabibilicious said:

 

Add in rampant Gerrymandering and watch people's heads explode.  B)

 

GO RV, then BV

Two completely separate issues. Gerrymandering is nothing more than the swamp polyticks assuring their lifetime seat on the gravy train. Voter fraud is the actual casting of illegal ballots.

 

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