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bostonangler

I wonder which comes first

I wonder which comes first  

6 members have voted

  1. 1. The DOW hits...

    • 25,000
      4
    • 15,000
      2


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Not likely to hit 15,000 without a strong underlying reason or surprise

but the hard reality of this market is over bought and we still have done

nothing to address future long term unfunded financial liabilities of upwards of 200 Trillion$

 

That alone could demolish the market at some point of course, and there are no easy

answers to the decades long problems. I see a price in between...17 - 18,000 after

correction. Keep in mind we are also seeing much of the very same mistakes being made

inside the housing market again...same easy money policies coming from some big lenders,

and that is already causing problems.

 

There is no such thing as endless growth, that is a keynesian lie. Everything runs in cycles,

markets are no different, but all things can be whipped out of order for awhile, so we will see.

it will be fear based as all financial fall outs are...watch the volatility when a stronger correction

happens, but for years they have been fairly small, but that will change also at some point

when reality hits euphoria. :lol:

 

Thanks BA :)

Edited by Jim1cor13
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On ‎7‎/‎20‎/‎2017 at 7:21 PM, Jim1cor13 said:

Not likely to hit 15,000 without a strong underlying reason or surprise

but the hard reality of this market is over bought and we still have done

nothing to address future long term unfunded financial liabilities of upwards of 200 Trillion$

 

That alone could demolish the market at some point of course, and there are no easy

answers to the decades long problems. I see a price in between...17 - 18,000 after

correction. Keep in mind we are also seeing much of the very same mistakes being made

inside the housing market again...same easy money policies coming from some big lenders,

and that is already causing problems.

 

There is no such thing as endless growth, that is a keynesian lie. Everything runs in cycles,

markets are no different, but all things can be whipped out of order for awhile, so we will see.

it will be fear based as all financial fall outs are...watch the volatility when a stronger correction

happens, but for years they have been fairly small, but that will change also at some point

when reality hits euphoria. :lol:

 

Thanks BA :)

 

As always a great perspective. Thanks for your insight... I'm not sure how low it will go, but right now we are living with a propped up market moving with no real support. Yes we are making the same mistakes. The Banks too big to fail are now bigger. People have gone back to living beyond their means. IMF is reducing their numbers for projected growth. Our country continues to add debt. I think the correction will be large and ugly. People have seen their investments and retirement accounts soar and most have not adjusted to take their profits, meaning the losses will be shocking. As fast as the markets have gone up, it seems they go down much faster.

 

B/A

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On 7/25/2017 at 4:17 PM, bostonangler said:

 

As always a great perspective. Thanks for your insight... I'm not sure how low it will go, but right now we are living with a propped up market moving with no real support system" rel="">support. Yes we are making the same mistakes. The Banks too big to fail are now bigger. People have gone back to living beyond their means. IMF is reducing their numbers for projected growth. Our country continues to add debt. I think the correction will be large and ugly. People have seen their investments and retirement accounts soar and most have not adjusted to take their profits, meaning the losses will be shocking. As fast as the markets have gone up, it seems they go down much faster.

 

B/A

 

Thanks BA. Indeed, typically corrections happen in a very short period of time, because it is fueled by fear.

 

When fear fuels anything, rational critical thought are thrown out of the window, and the fight or flight

reflex begins, usually with flight being the go to action. So when things naturally correct, as a cycle, corrections

can take much longer to unfold...but when they are initiated by a sudden unexpected surprise that immediately

increases volatility which is a measure of a markets daily ranges, things can go south really quick.

 

The challenges are epic, and those challenges never really went away even after all the years of

"easing" and dumping money into a system that consistently repeats the same mistakes.

 

One of the most difficult things to overcome is our own biases, they are what usually hinders our ability to

notice certain things, to think critically, and to act rationally when reality disagrees with our bias and beliefs

which can then set us up for living with cognitive dissonance which can be costly. It is a denial about reality

because it does not agree with our perceptions and it is not what we want to hear, so we reject what could be

very helpful to us and continue to try and protect our beliefs and biases. We have all been guilty of this at one

time or another.

 

Have a good day BA :)

 

 

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