Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages

[Pitcher]

It’s a moving target Chuck. Being from Houston I’ve lived through a number of boom bust cycles.  There are so many macro issues, large amounts of capital needed,, machinery, workers, transport, OPEC, countries at war, demand, over supply, Shale Producers, and many more which dictate price.  In my humble opinion the price of a barrel of oil should be under 40 bucks.  Anything over that is a rip off and market manipulation.  

[ChuckFinley]

I hear what you ar say. Just a bunch of thieves.  

[Pitcher]

Bingo bingo bingo!!!

[yota691]

Iraq targets market balance rather than oil prices

24/4/2018 12:00 am   Baghdad / Al-Sabah Iraq's representative to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Nizar, said on Monday that Iraq aims to balance the market and not oil prices, while the Ministry of Oil, said exports for the month of March, more than 107 million barrels of crude oil, revenues of more than 6 Billion dollars. "Iraq is not targeting oil prices but the balance of the market," Nizar said at a press conference held in Abu Dhabi. "High oil prices are not always in our interest." "We are achieving our target for oil reserves and we are going back to an average of five years," he said. In the same context, the Ministry of Oil, said that Iraqi exports amounted to the month of last March, crude oil 107 million and 50 thousand barrels, with revenues amounted to 6 billion and 435 million and 210 thousand dollars. A statement by the ministry, received by "morning", that "the total quantities exported from crude oil for the month of March from the oil fields in central and southern Iraq, amounted to 107 million and 50 thousand barrels, with revenues amounted to 6 billion and 435 million and 210 thousand dollars, while the statistical exports Of the Kirkuk fields. " He continued, "The quantities exported were loaded by 39 international companies of different nationalities, from the ports of Basra and Khor al-Amaya and monopoles  On the Gulf. "

[yota691]

Iran: There is no need to extend OPEC and independent agreement if oil prices rise

 

An Iranian oil field

Arab and international Economy News Baghdad Iran's Oil Ministry's official website on Monday quoted Oil Minister Bien Zenghan as saying that if crude oil prices continued to rise, there would be no need to extend the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to boost prices . "There will be no decision in this regard at the next OPEC meeting ... if oil prices continue to rise, there will be no need to extend the agreement, " the site quoted Zengane as saying . Since the beginning of 2017, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other non-OPEC members have been cutting output to eliminate the global supply gap . The deal is in place until the end of 2018. The agreement's participants are due to discuss its extension at the OPEC meeting in Vienna in June . US President Donald Trump accused OPEC on Friday of boosting oil prices "artificially ". "OPEC seems to be returning the ball again," Trump said on Twitter. "With record oil everywhere, including the most heavily loaded ships at sea, oil prices are artificially high and this is not good and will not be acceptable ." Zangane accused the US president of not favoring low oil prices. "According to our information, Trump favors high oil prices to increase America's oil production and tax revenue and provide more jobs in America, " he said. "Trump accuses OPEC of raising prices, while it has nothing to do with OPEC ." Views 22   Date Added 23/04/2018

[nannab]

Thank ya Yota and have a good DV 

[yota691]

2 hours ago

Oil is recovering from fears of US sanctions on Iran

2018-04-23T21: 42: 49Z 

An ABU DHABI (Reuters) -Oil prices closed higher after recovering from early losses, and continued to rise in subsequent trading on a settlement as investors feared US sanctions could curb Iranian crude production.
The market is fluctuating in response to mutual comments between the United States and OPEC members, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at PricewaterhouseCoopers .

Crude prices fell in early trade on concerns that oversupply could return.

"If oil prices continue to rise, there will be no need to extend the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to boost prices," Oil Minister Begin Zengane was quoted as saying .

"There will be no decision in this regard at the next OPEC meeting ... if oil prices continue to rise, there will be no need to extend the agreement, " the site quoted Zengane as saying .

Since the beginning of 2017, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other non-OPEC producers have been cutting production in order to get rid of the glut of global supply of crude .

The agreement is in effect until the end of 2018. The agreement's participants are due to discuss its extension at the OPEC meeting in Vienna in June .

Prices were also supported by data from the energy information company Gainscape showing a decline in US crude inventories in Kashing, Oklahoma .

Brent crude <LCOc1> rose 65 cents, or 0.9 percent, to settle at $ 74.71 a barrel from $ 73.13 a barrel .

US benchmark WTI crude rose 24 cents, or 0.35 percent, to $ 68.64 a barrel, recovering from a session low of $ 67.14. The difference between the benchmark crude prices is the widest since January 8 .

Brent prices continued to rise in subsequent trading on the settlement to $ 75.08 a barrel .

[Butifldrm]

Oil prices jump to more than $ 75

Bertha News Agency23 2018-04-24

 

 

World oil prices hit their highest level since late 2014 on Tuesday, driven by expectations that the United States would resume its sanctions on Iran and OPEC countries continue to cut supplies amid strong demand.

Brent crude climbed $ 75.20 in early trade on Tuesday, a level not seen since November 27, 2014. 

Brent hit $ 75 at 0311 GMT, up 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, from its last close.

This is the sixth consecutive session of Brent, the longest rally since a series of gains in December, making it more than 20 percent above its lowest level in 2018, in February.

US WTI crude futures were $ 68.98 a barrel, up 34 cents, or 0.5 percent from the last settlement.

Markets have been boosted by a cut in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 2017 to support the market, as well as the possible resumption of US sanctions on Tehran.

The cut-off agreement applies until the end of 2018.

The agreement is due to be discussed at the OPEC meeting in Vienna next June.

Subscribe to the channel news agency Bertha on the talgam 

https://burathanews.com/arabic/economic/331549

[yota691]

28-04-2018 11:35 AM

OPEC: OPEC oil prices record $ 70 per barrel

 

 

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Saturday that OPEC's daily basket price was more than $ 70 a barrel. 

"The price of OPEC's basket of fourteen barrels of crude is $ 71 per barrel," the group said in a statement. 

"The price rose from the previous day of $ 70.50, according to the accounts of the OPEC secretariat." 

The cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) consists of: Algeria, (Kuwait), Kuwait (Kuwait), S Sider (Libya), Bonnie Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Morban (United Arab Emirates) and Miri (Venezuela).

[yota691]

 

The United States is sending the largest shipment of oil condensates to the UAE

 

14:36

Last updated

The time now is 02:48 PM

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Follow - up / Tomorrow Press: 

revealed early on Saturday a source, that the United States will send a second cargo of oil, the largest so far to the United Arab Emirates in May. 

The source said that Motiva Enterprises had hired the South Sea carrier Suezmax to ship about 1 million barrels of condensate from the Gulf Coast to Ruwais in the UAE with an option to sell it to the west coast of India.

The shipment is likely to be shipped on May 10. 

The United States exported 727,000 barrels of oil to the UAE in December, the first shipment of its kind, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. 

The United States lifted a 40-year ban on crude exports in late 2015 and since then shipments of US oil have reached more than 20 countries. 

Data showed that the Energy Information Administration recorded weekly exports of crude oil, a record level of 2.3 million barrels last week.

[yota691]

June 23 OPEC ministers and independent producers meet in Vienna

Readers

 

 

June 23 OPEC ministers and independent producers meet in Vienna

 

29-04-2018 09:29 PM

 

The Euphrates -

 

A copy of a tentative schedule showed ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other foreign producers planned to meet in Vienna on June 23 after a day of talks by WTO ministers only. 

According to the schedule, a technical committee monitoring OPEC's oil production reduction agreement and independent producers led by Russia will meet on June 19. 

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said at a meeting of the OPEC ministerial committee and independent producers earlier that the OPEC agreement and independents are now moving towards restoring stability on a sustainable basis for producers, consumers and the global economy. 

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei said last week that all Opec members and non-OPEC oil producers, including Russia, were committed to agreed supply cuts until the end of the year. 

"Overall, fundamentals of the market, supply and demand, the task is not complete," he said on the sidelines of a Middle East oil and gas industry conference in Abu Dhabi. We have to continue to see a truly balanced market. ' 

He said in an interview earlier that the goal is to stabilize the markets in the long term. 

The UAE minister said he was not concerned about prices, but rather about the stability of the market and the level of investment. 

He added that the stability of the oil market is the long-term goal of the alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. He continued: 'The price of oil is not the main concern as much as market stability, noting that the work is not over yet to ensure the balance of the oil market well.' 

"Opec members and producers from outside the Organization have carried out more than the production cuts they have made," Handelsblatt quoted Al Mazrouei as saying in an interview published on Friday. "But we must join other countries in the agreement." 

OPEC members, Russia and other non-OPEC producers have been cutting production since January 2017 to cut inventories and boost prices. 

The agreement is in effect until the end of this year. Participants at the OPEC meeting in Vienna in June are due to take a decision on the next step. 

"We will announce how much the stocks, which were well above the five-year average, have fallen, and how OPEC and non-OPEC producers will go ahead on oil production," Mazrouei said.

[yota691]

The term "oversupply" ends in 2018

02/5/2018 12:00 am  Geopolitical factors causing high oil prices  capitals / follow-up morning In light of the successive highs of oil prices since the beginning of this year .. What are the factors that support the current levels at $ 75 a barrel .. Is the matter really related to the end of the term "oversupply" of the markets or is there still a geopolitical risk premium is heavily priced which Supports the performance of these prices. On 20 January 2015 the price of a barrel of oil has fallen to the lowest level in 13 years and then in 2016 witnessed the markets to sign the agreement, "OPEC" and independent to reduce production, resulting in the largest factor, which contributed to support oil prices Reduction of production levels of 1.8 million barrels. The month of June 2017 witnessed an upward trend in the price of a barrel of oil because of the issue of production cuts, but this is the issue of production cuts and the price levels we have seen helped rock oil to enter the markets. Since November 2017 we have witnessed very strong levels exceeding 10 million barrels for American rock oil Which entered the market, but what happened at the beginning of this year is a combination between the end of the term "oversupply" of the oil markets and the arrival of "OPEC" to its target for 5 years for oil stocks and geopolitical risks; on the one hand we had the subject of sanctions, Russia and Russia To Venezuela's output, which fell to the lowest level in 30 years and the possibility that the United States will put economic sanctions on Venezuela, the other issue is the Iranian nuclear deal and fear that the United States to withdraw from it in mid-November. The factors are probably related to demand and supply levels. Demand levels for 2018 are very strong at 100 million barrels in the fourth quarter of this year, an increase of 5 million barrels per day we have seen in the last three years.  This is a big boost to the gains we've seen on oil prices, which means that even with the intervention of US rock oil, we expect there will be strong demand in 2018 to absorb this US oil supply.  On the other hand, we do not forget the subject of the agreement on the reduction of production and the strong compliance rate, which amounted to 149 percent of this agreement, although the subject of Venezuela significantly helped to reach these high rates of compliance and the existence of talk about the extension of this agreement beyond the end of the year, By the end of 2018. For Russia, the reduction was 300,000 barrels per day and the commitment to the OPEC reduction was 92 percent, but it is questionable if the agreement is actually extended beyond this year. Will Russia have a strong incentive to join the extension? Especially as it was critical of this agreement because it gives way to US rock oil to enter the world markets and also called for review of this agreement in June.  The question is whether the agreement will be extended until this year. Does Russia have the incentive to join the extension again?  On the oil front, geopolitical tensions are the main reason for more support for oil prices. Among the geopolitical factors is the threat of US President Donald Trump to withdraw from Iran's nuclear deal, which caused oil prices to rise above $ 75 a barrel on Monday. Of the nuclear deal will reduce between 300 to 700 thousand barrels per day of Iranian oil supply, which will give more momentum for  oil prices

[Butifldrm]

Saudi Arabia Needs $88 Oil

By Nick Cunningham - May 02, 2018, 6:00 PM CDT

Higher oil prices have provided a boost to the economies of oil-exporting nations such as Saudi Arabia. But the economic risks going forward are “skewed to the downside,” the International Monetary Fund said in a new report, in which it urged Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters to press on with reforms.

Oil price volatility, trade tensions, geopolitical risk and a “sharp tightening of global financial conditions” are just a few of the potential pitfalls that lie ahead.

But the IMF paid extra attention to the debt levels of some oil producers. “The tightening of global financial conditions, if interest rates will continue to go up and liquidity will be less available, this will affect countries with a high level of debt — mainly oil importing countries where the average debt exceeds 80 percent (of gross domestic product)," Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, told CNBCon Monday.

"Last but not least, some countries have succeeded in implementing reforms but what is important is to keep the momentum there and to address some of the structural issues," Azour said. He believes that the "region needs to create at least 25 million jobs for the young generation in the next five years”.Related: Is The Golden Era For Renewables Around The Corner?

The IMF said that Saudi Arabia needs to continue “structural reforms,” largely referring to the Vision 2030 plan spearheaded by crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. New taxes, deficit reduction, labor market reforms and investments in non-oil sectors of the economy are crucial.

While the economies of oil exporters have improved as oil prices have jumped to a three-year high, economic growth “is projected to remain well below its pre-2014 oil shock levels,” the IMF said. High levels of debt will act as a drag on the economy, limiting the extent to which governments can spend to improve short-term demand.

And for Saudi Arabia, oil prices are still too low to fully balance the books. The IMF claims that the Kingdom needs about $88 per barrel to balance its budget, up sharply from $70 per barrel last year. The sudden jump in the fiscal breakeven price is the result of an increase in spending expectations.

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth rate is expected to rise to 1.7 percent this year, after shrinking by 0.5 percent in 2017. But, as the IMF warns, the improved outlook is largely due to the uptick in government spending. “This expected acceleration in growth is not a free lunch – the government is picking up the bill,” said Ziad Daoud, chief Middle East economist for Bloomberg Economics. “The old model of an economy driven by government spending and financed by oil hasn’t really changed.”

Still, some are unmoved by the IMF’s warnings. Ellen R. Wald, an expert on the Saudi oil sector, wrote in Forbes last year – after a previous warning from the IMF – that the concerns are overblown. Saudi Arabia has plenty of cash reserves, Saudi Aramco has low production costs and the budget deficit has shrunk dramatically, she argued. And in any event, taking on debt is a normal thing that modern countries do.Related: Citi: U.S. To Become World’s Top Oil Exporter

Moody’s reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s “A1” credit rating on Wednesday, noting that the economic outlook was “stable.”

While some dismiss the short-term concerns related to the Saudi budget deficit, the IMF’s concerns about diversifying away from oil over the long-term are legitimate.

Saudi officials shrugged off the warnings from the IMF. Saudi Arabia responded to the advice from the IMF by saying that the rise in oil prices won’t change the course that it has charted towards economic diversification. "Higher oil prices will only help reduce the deficit and build reserves, we will continue our reform," Saudi finance minister Mohammed bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan told CNBC on Wednesday. "I assure you that there is a lot of excitement about reform and when you see results you get more energy to do more because you can see that it's working and helping the economy,".

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudi-Arabia-Needs-88-Oil.html

[Pitcher]

The problem with higher oil prices is that it is inflationary, hurts non oil producing world economies, and it opens up the flood gates of oil in the market place.  Personally I don’t care what SA wants.  When it was discovered that numerous terrorists were from and funded by SA, we should have taken over that country and renamed it Exxon!!!!!

[Butifldrm]

 

• economic

Oil near the highest level since 2014

08:25 - 07/05/2018

0

 

  

Information / Baghdad ...

Oil markets remained stable on Monday as prices approached their highest levels since late 2014, with a decision on whether to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran and reinstate sanctions on Tehran.

Brent crude futures were $ 74.94 a barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, from the previous close.

US WTI crude futures also rose 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $ 69.79 a barrel.

"Crude oil prices have risen because concerns over the impact of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran continue to drive investor sentiment," ANZ Bank said on Monday.

"This week's big story will be about oil and the nuclear deal," said Greg McKenna, chief market analyst at AxiTrader Futures Brokerage. We know President Trump does not like it. "

"In general terms, based on price movements of oil, suggest that President Trump will withdraw from the agreement," he said.

Iran returned one of the world's largest oil exporters in 2016 after lifting sanctions against it in return for curbing its nuclear program.

But the United States has since expressed doubts about Iran's sincerity in implementing the deal

http://www.almaalomah.com/2018/05/07/307181/

[Butifldrm]

Why Oil Prices Are Likely To Go Higher

By Nick Cunningham - May 07, 2018, 6:00 PM CDT

WTI just hit $70 per barrel for the first time since late 2014. Prices continue to edge higher, pushed along by strong demand and falling inventories. But it is the geopolitical narrative that has really taken hold as of late, with the danger of supply outages looming in the next few weeks.

This is the fateful week in which the Trump administration has to decide on what to do with the Iran nuclear deal. All signs point to him attempting to terminate the agreement. The return of sanctions could knock off as much as 400,000 to 500,000 bpd from Iranian supply, a huge volume that would put the oil market in danger of a shortage.

There is still a chance that the Trump administration takes a more nuanced approach – not killing the deal in its entirety but taking a harder line with Iran. It’s unclear what that might look like in practice, but with the oil market already pricing in some sort of re-implementation of sanctions, anything that stops short of that could be met with a selloff. “In our view President Trump’s decision on the waiver looks likely to be both the largest upside and downside risk to oil prices over the next 11 days,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note last week. However, a softer line seems unlikely at this point.

The oil market is already in a bit of a supply/demand deficit. According to the IEA, oil inventories fell by 26 million barrels in February, a larger-than-expected decline. That put total stocks just 30 million barrels above the five-year average, which means that we are close to arriving at OPEC’s long-sought goal of achieving “balance” in the market.

“Our balances show that if OPEC production were constant this year, and if our outlooks for non-OPEC production and oil demand remain unchanged, in 2Q18-4Q18 global stocks could draw by about 0.6 mb/d,” the IEA wrote in its April Oil Market Report. “With markets expected to tighten, it is possible that when we publish OECD stocks data in the next month or two they will have reached or even fallen below the five-year average target.”Related: Is This The Perfect Battery?

In the context of the potential outages from Iran, it is worth emphasizing that April conclusion from the IEA. The agency expects inventories to decline at a rate of 0.6 million barrels per day, which is to say, the market is already in a supply deficit, which will continue to drain stocks. And that calculation comes before any potential outage from Iran. The loss of a few hundred thousand barrels per day from Iran would make that deficit larger, leading to an even faster rate of decline from global inventories.

Adding to those worries are the supply disruptions in Venezuela. The oil market is likely already pricing in large supply losses from the South American OPEC member, with most analysts forecasting declines on the order of several hundred thousand barrels per day by the end of this year. Production is already down to about 1.4-1.5 million barrels per day, or about 600,000-700,000 bpd lower than 2016 levels. Output could dip close to 1 mb/d by the end of the year, although the risk to that estimate is on the downside.

There are a series of potential disasters facing Venezuela that could accelerate declines. A full-blown debt default, U.S. sanctions, and asset seizures from creditors are three dire scenarios, that at this point, actually look pretty likely.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence unveiled new sanctions on Venezuela on Monday, ahead of the May 20 presidential election. Most analysts expect the Trump administration to hold off on the more draconian measures until after the sham vote in two weeks.

On Monday, Reuters reported that ConocoPhillips is moving in to seize some assets from PDVSA located in the Caribbean. Conoco won an international arbitration ruling two weeks ago and is now laying claim to PDVSA facilities on the islands of Curacao, Bonaire and St. Eustatius – facilities that made up about one quarter of Venezuela’s oil exports last year.

At the time of this writing, the implications of the potential asset seizures are unknown, but the facilities are vital for Venezuela as they play key roles in processing, storing and blending PDVSA’s heavy oil. “This is terrible (for PDVSA),” a source familiar with the court order of attachment told Reuters. PDVSA “cannot comply with all the committed volume for exports,” the source said, noting that a significant chunk of exports could be in jeopardy.

The more missed debt payments pile up, the more likely that creditors will begin scrambling to seize assets. Venezuela’s oil production and exports are already falling at a rapid rate, but the losses could accelerate because of creditor actions.

This week is shaping up to be a pivotal one for the oil market, with the potential for renewed sanctions on Iran. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s oil production was already declining and fragile, but a darker reality is beginning to unfold. These events, occurring against a backdrop of a tighter oil market, point to higher prices over the next few weeks.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Oil-Prices-Are-Likely-To-Go-Higher.html?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notification&utm_campaign=PushCrew_notification_1525751404&pushcrew_powered=1

[yota691]

Expert: crude oil prices will keep rates

08/5/2018 12:00 am  While it reached its highest level since 2014 Morning / Continue   While crude oil prices on Monday rose 1 percent to their highest levels since late 2014, supported by the economic crisis is intensifying in Venezuela, the economic expert warned that the reality of oil prices will keep the near-term close to this level in the near term, with the possibility of Higher prices in case the global market witnessed new events. By 0650 GMT, Brent crude for the year was $ 75.57 a barrel, up 70 cents, or 0.9 percent, from the previous settlement. Earlier in the session, crude touched its highest level since November 2014 at $ 75.89 a barrel.  West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 70 cents, or 1 percent, to $ 70.42 a barrel. And exceeded US crude to $ 70 a barrel on Monday for the first time since November 2014. The decline in stocks Economist Haidar al-Baghdadi said: "All the data of the crude oil market indicates that the reality of prices will be close to current rates or exceed them in varying rates were not large, especially with the commitment of producers agreement to keep production, corresponding to the decline of global stocks," pointing out that "The reality of the market may see an increase in demand in the coming months, which in turn boost prices in the international market and raise revenues of oil states, which suffered a decline in revenues to the limits of major.  At the same time, Shanghai's crude oil contracts in China exceeded its record high of $ 71.32 a barrel to $ 72.54 on   Monday. The economic crisis Some analysts warn that the worsening economic crisis in Venezuela, a major oil exporter, threatens more pressure on its production and exports, and Venezuela's production has halved since the early 2000s to only 1.5 million bpd, with the country not pumping enough investment. Futures contracts and along with concerns about Venezuela, Greg large market experts McKenna has tog Trader brokerage said in futures contracts "big story this week will be related to the oil agreement and Iran , " he said , adding that most market players expect the withdrawal of US President Donald Trump of the agreement. Iran returned to major oil exporters in 2016 after lifting international sanctions imposed on it in exchange for restricting its nuclear program  .

[Butifldrm]

of oil prices jump to the highest level after the withdrawal of America from Iran's nuclear agreement

 

 Twilight News    

 6 hours ago

 

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent to a three-and-a-half-year high on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump pulled out of an international nuclear deal with Iran, a move likely to limit Opec's crude exports In the market already suffers scarcity of supply.

Trump announced on Tuesday evening that the United States would withdraw from the 2015 agreement, increasing the risk of conflict in the Middle East and raising uncertainty about global oil supplies.

World benchmark crude rose to $ 75.76 a barrel to its highest level since Wednesday's session, its best performance since November 2014. It was $ 76.66 a barrel at 0137 GMT, up $ 1.81, or 2.4 percent, from its last close.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.51 dollars, or 2.2 percent, to 70.61 dollars per barrel, also nearing their highest level since late 2014.

"The biggest event tonight is President Trump's cancellation of the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. It is therefore likely that sanctions will be imposed again on Iran, which will definitely affect its oil exports," said William Olaflin, an investment analyst at Rifkin Securities.

If Trump reinstates major US sanctions, he will have to wait at least 180 days under US law to do so unless another agreement is reached before the end of that period.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said Iran's exports could fall by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels as a result. But Iranian officials said their country's oil industry would continue to develop even if Washington withdrew from the nuclear deal.

The sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Tehran in early 2012 because of its nuclear program led to a drop in Iranian oil exports from a peak of 2.5 million barrels per day before sanctions to just over one million barrels per day.

But Iran emerged as a major crude exporter in January 2016, when international sanctions were suspended in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program, with exports in April reaching 2.6 million bpd.

That makes Iran the third largest source of crude within OPEC behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Iran says it is seeking to increase its oil production capacity to 4.7 million bpd over the next four years.

Opec, Russia and other producers have begun cutting oil supplies from January 2017 in an effort to get rid of oversupply and raise prices. Participants in the reduction extended this agreement until December 2018 and will meet in June to review their policy.

In the meantime, Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional rival, has expressed a desire to continue to narrow the gap between supply and demand in crude markets.

The kingdom, the world's top oil exporter, has opposed the nuclear deal for fear it would boost Iran's economic power and allow it to increase funding for proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Keywords: 

http://www.shafaaq.com/ar/Ar_NewsReader/0daffc49-c592-4bbf-823d-dd13721cf64a

[Butifldrm]

Oil Market Volatility Set To Soar This Month

By Irina Slav - May 08, 2018, 6:00 PM CDT

After two months of an almost uninterrupted increase, crude oil is set for even more volatility on a string of political events that could see it either touch US$80 or even higher by the end of June or, conversely, slump to deep lows again.

President Donald Trump will start unwinding the string today as he announced his decision on the Iran deal. The prevailing analyst opinion is that economic sanctions will be reinstated within the next couple of months.

While this would be naturally bullish for oil prices, some analysts note that the effect of the sanctions has already been factored into prices, so any immediate impact will be limited. What’s more, CNBC reported recently, that the effect of U.S. sanctions against Iran on the country’s international shipments of crude will also be limited: China and India are unlikely to reduce their intake of Iranian crude as are other buyers, who were previously on the U.S.’ side with regard to the sanctions.

All in all, analysts estimate that new sanctions could remove between 300,000 bpd and 500,000 bpd of Iranian crude from international markets, which compares with 1-1.5 million bpd removed from the market under the initial round of U.S. sanctions under President Obama, who had a lot more support from Western Europe.

That said, there will unquestionably be an effect on prices from Trump’s announcement. This effect could be amplified later in May, when Venezuela holds its presidential elections. The vote scheduled for May 20, and there is little doubt that Washington will question the legality of the outcome.Related: Qatar Petroleum To Boost Production Despite Blockade

Venezuela’s oil industry—like its economy—is in shambles, with production down by 50 percent since its peak in the early 2000s to 1.55 million bpd, data from Bloomberg suggests. If no radical change is made in the management of the industry and the exodus of Venezuelans to neighboring countries does not stop, Venezuelan oil production could slump to 1.38 million bpd by the end of the year, the lowest in seven decades, the International Energy Agency has warned.

Some analysts already see Venezuela as the biggest international tailwind for oil prices and respectively top cause for worry for the bears. It was thanks to Venezuela’s unwilling overcompliance with its OPEC production quota that the cartel as a whole overperformed with the cuts.

The presidential elections will likely result in a victory for incumbent Nicolas Maduro, which might spur the U.S. into further action against Caracas and cut off oil imports from the South American country. The chances of this happening are unclear, however: a ban on Venezuelan imports has been on the table for a while now but the Washington has not yet taken this step.Related: The One Nation Returning To Coal

Meanwhile, discord is brewing in OPEC between Saudi Arabia, which wants oil prices even higher, and Iran, which says a reasonable oil price is between US$60-65 a barrel. The cartel and its partners in output cut deal are meeting on June 22, and although the public message is that everyone is still on board with the cuts, Iran is not the only one unhappy with the high prices: Russia may be pressured by the state oil companies, which have already demonstrated eagerness to boost their production. Russia missed its production quota in both March and April.

A surprise at the June meeting is unlikely but not impossible. If the U.S. hits Iran with sanctions this month, Tehran may well decide to put all its efforts into holding onto and possibly growing its share on existing import markets, which would motivate it to either cheat on its quota or simply leave the production cut deal. That, in turn, would weigh on prices, especially if it motivates other OPEC members to follow suit.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Oil-Market-Volatility-Set-To-Soar-This-Month.html

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Oil minister: OPEC will discuss a potential shortage of crude supplies

 

Oil Minister Jabbar al-Allaibi

energy Economy News Baghdad: Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said OPEC would discuss a possible shortfall in global crude supplies following US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal . Asked whether Iraq would close the gap in supplies expected from re-imposing sanctions on Iran's oil sales, Al-Luaibi said OPEC would hold a meeting at the end of this month, which would be on the negotiating table . Trump said on Tuesday that the 2015 nuclear deal, which lifted sanctions on Iran for measures to curb its nuclear program, did not go far enough to remove Tehran's threat to the United States and its allies in the Middle East . "It is a political issue and we hope it will not affect the oil supply from the Gulf region," al-Luaibi said, adding he hoped the region would remain stable . He said oil prices are stable because of the stability of the market, as OPEC's goal is not prices, but the stability of the market and reduce the levels of stocks . Views 32   Date Added 10/05/2018

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Report: Dollar and Oil Record Rarely

 10 May 2018 03:54 PM
Mubasher: Oil prices and the US dollar have risen side by side in recent days, a pattern that has only been 11 times since 1983.

The simultaneous rise of the dollar and oil is rare; the rise in the dollar makes commodity prices denominated in the US currency more expensive for other currency users, so the strength of the greenback tends to be in the opposite direction of commodity prices.

 

Pescocki said in a report on Monday that the most surprising aspect of the rise in crude oil prices was that the latest upsurge came as the dollar rose.

Oil prices have received support from geopolitical tensions over the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal, along with fears of a drop in supplies from Venezuela and accelerating global demand for crude.

Historically, crude prices have been inversely linked to the dollar, and the rise in oil prices over the past year coincided with the decline of the US currency.

The report pointed out that over the past four weeks, the dollar index has witnessed a major increase by more than 3%, but instead of stopping the rise of crude as a result, oil prices rose by about 10%.

Analysts said that given this uncommon context of simultaneous rallies in the dollar and US crude index, the current period is the 11th time since 1983.

By 12:00 p.m. GMT, US crude for June delivery rose 0.5% to $ 71.48 a barrel, its highest since the end of 2014.

During the same period, the dollar index fell 0.1% to $ 92.9, after yesterday surpassing the level of $ 93 for the first time since the end of 2017.

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OPEC oil prices above $ 74 per barrel

 

energy Economy News _ Baghdad The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Monday that OPEC's daily basket price was more than $ 74 a barrel. The Organization said in a statement read by "Economy News" that "the price of OPEC basket of fourteen barrels of crude recorded 74.42 dollars per barrel." "The price fell slightly from the previous day of $ 70.46, according to the accounts of the OPEC secretariat." The cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) consists of: Algeria, (Kuwait), Kuwait (Kuwait), S Sider (Libya), Bonnie Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Morban (United Arab Emirates) and Miri (Venezuela). Views 6   Date Added 05/14/2018

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Report: the countries most loss of high oil prices ?!

 

 Since 2018-05-14 at 10:55 (Baghdad time)

Follow - Mawazine News

Oil prices have risen by 18% so far this year, according to oil experts, half of this rise occurred due to improved global economic growth, and thus increased demand for raw materials, the second half of the rise, due to reasons of geopolitical tension and the military confrontation in Syria and withdrawal American nuclear agreement.

Speculators on oil resources in the energy markets have calculated the possibility of a US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in months, and thus increased purchases of futures.

It is known that the Gulf countries and the countries of "OPEC" and Russia are benefiting from the rise, but what are the countries most lost from the rise in oil prices?

From a purely economic point of view, high oil prices have a negative effect on importing countries, as they raise the rate of inflation and upset the balance of payments, and may lead to crises for the currencies of some financially weak countries.

In this regard, the Bank of "Royal Bank of Scotland", the British, a list of countries most sensitive to high prices.

The list included top oil suppliers, led by China, India, Taiwan, Chile, Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine, along with the EU.

Higher oil is expected to increase fuel prices and manufacturing costs in these countries, thereby raising inflation and affecting the trade balance, as they will pay more to cover the oil import bill.

For the first time, high oil prices coincide with the rise in the dollar exchange rate, which is a burning mix for some emerging countries, and the countries that the British Bank expected to be exposed to crises if oil prices continue to rise, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Egypt did not mention the size of its economy is very small.

For China, the world's largest oil importer, analysts believe that the $ 70 price of oil will raise inflation and balance-of-payments imbalances. However, China has the financial capacity to deal with this in the short and medium term as it has dollar reserves estimated at more than Three trillions dollars.

According to calculations published by the Bloomberg agency that the current price of oil will raise the rate of inflation in oil-importing economies to 2.3%, compared to 1.7% last year. In a country like India, the $ 10 oil price hike raises its oil bill by about $ 8 billion and cuts the growth rate by about 0.3 percent.

For the United States, rising oil prices are a two-edged sword, reviving oil states such as Texas, North Dakota and Wyoming, but boosting inflation in non-oil states. According to analyst Mark Zandi of Moody's credit rating agency, the impact of a 10% rise in oil prices on the US economy fell from 0.3% prior to the oil boom to 0.1% today.

Thanks to the increase in US oil production to about 10 million barrels per day. On the other hand, some believe that the negative impact on the US economy will be greater than that. Economist Gregor Daco of Oxford Economics puts the rate of US growth shrinking by 0.35 percent if West Texas crude oil continues above $ 70 a barrel.

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OPEC's monthly report: raising the forecast for global oil demand growth slightly to 1.65 million barrels per day in 2018

 

energy Economy News Baghdad: OPEC production rose in April under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, despite a significant decline in Venezuela's production . OPEC production increased by 12.1 thousand barrels per day (bpd) in April to 31.930 million bpd, compared to 31.918 million bpd in March, according to data released by OPEC on Monday . The data showed that Saudi Arabia contributed the largest increase in production last month by 46.5 thousand barrels per day, followed by Algeria at 17.7 thousand barrels per day, and Iran by 10 thousand barrels per day . At the level of the most countries that contributed to the reduction of production of crude, Venezuela came in first place with a decrease by 41.7 thousand barrels per day, and Gabon, falling by about 9.3 thousand barrels per day . Nigeria came in third place with a decline of 8.3 thousand barrels per day . By 11:00 a.m. GMT, the price of Brent crude for the US dollar was at $ 77.11 a barrel . While NYMEX crude futures dropped 0.2% to $ 70.58 a barrel . Views 347   Date Added 14/05/2018

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Opec cuts continue to exceed what is required despite the proximity of oil supply

- 3 Hours Ago

Figures published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that the global oil supply gap is almost over, partly due to the FAO-led supply reduction agreement since January 2017 and the rapid increase in world demand. 
However, FAO's latest report states that producer countries are doing more than required under the agreement, while noting that producers not covered by the deal, such as US rock oil companies, are beginning to face constraints on their future production. 
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter and already leading OPEC, has told the group it cut production in April to its lowest level since the cut-off agreement came into force in January 2017.
OPEC's industrial oil reserves in March fell to 9 million barrels over the five-year average, down from 340 million barrels above that average in January 2017, the OPEC report said. Reduction. 
"The oil market received support in April from renewed geopolitical problems, reduced product inventories and strong global demand," the organization said. 
The agreement between OPEC and some of the off-world producers, led by Russia, to cut supply and manage supply overshadowed crude oil prices reaching $ 78 a barrel, its highest level since 2014. The price of oil on Monday traded above $ 77 a barrel, Has been bullish since the report was released.
The reduction of supplies was intended to reduce oil stocks to the five-year average. But oil ministers said other measures must be taken into account, such as investments in the sector, noting they were not rushing to ease supply restrictions. 
The report showed that OPEC is currently cutting supplies at a higher rate than it has committed under the agreement. 
According to figures collected by the secretariat of the Organization from secondary sources, OPEC production rose by only 12 thousand barrels per day in April to 31.93 million barrels per day. That is almost 800,000 bpd less than OPEC says the world needs from the organization this year. The figures received directly from Member States showed a larger reduction in production.
Venezuela, whose output fell sharply due to an economic crisis, said output fell by 1.505 million bpd in April, believed to be the lowest level in decades. 
Saudi Arabia said it cut production by 39,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.868 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since the reduction of supplies came into effect, according to figures in Riyadh's reports. 
Strong growth in demand thanks to the improved global economy has helped to eliminate the erosion. OPEC raised its forecast for global demand growth slightly this year to 1.65 million bpd.
The rise in crude prices has led to a growth in the supply of competing producers and a flow in the supply of US rock oil. The Organization expects overseas production to grow by 1.72 million barrels per day this year, more than world demand growth. But it expects obstacles to future growth, including the slow pace of investment in the oil sector, with the prospect of a contraction in investment in shale oil. 
"Rapid growth in US rocky oil production is facing increasingly costly logistical constraints with regard to extractive energy from land-locked production sites," the report said. 
In addition to the impact of the OPEC-led cut, the US decision to withdraw from the international nuclear deal with Iran and renew the sanctions against Tehran have raised concerns about Iran's oil exports, helping to raise prices.
OPEC said in its report that it was ready to intervene if "geopolitical developments" affected supplies. Saudi Arabia said last week it was ready to compensate for any supply shortfall, but it would not act on its own. 
"OPEC, as always, stands ready to support the stability of the oil market, together with non-OPEC oil producers and to participate in the declaration of cooperation," OPEC said.

LONDON (Reuters)