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Robotrucks Hit The Road


bostonangler
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Robotrucks Hit The Road In the Name Of Safety, Efficiency And Profit

 

San Francisco-based Otto, acquired last year by Uber, is one of several companies now testing driverless 18-wheeler trucks on U.S. highways. (Aether Films)

San Francisco-based Otto, acquired last year by Uber, is one of several companies now testing driverless 18-wheeler trucks on U.S. highways. (Aether Films)

It was an auspicious beer run — 2,000 cases of Budweiser on a 120-mile trip down a Colorado highway in an 18-wheeler — and without a driver.

The rehearsal run took place in October, using a Volvo tractor-trailer equipped with radar and laser-based sensors, cameras and software developed by San Francisco-based Otto. The company itself —  a startup launched in January, then acquired by Uber in August for $670 million — acts as a gauge for just how fast-moving the market is for autonomous driving technologies.

Otto's technology enabled the self-driving Volvo to monitor other vehicles, road conditions, location, speed and other data, freeing the 80,000 pound vehicle to accelerate, brake and turn without human intervention.

The advance of self-driving cars has captured the public's imagination, urged along by the promotional savvy of Tesla (TSLA) and Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL). All major automakers have climbed on board, with General Motors (GM), Ford (F), BMW, Volvo and Toyota Motor (TM) all tinkering away at their own self-driving designs.

Alphabet, in December, announced that it would spin out its self-driving car efforts from its research lab into its own business unit called Waymo, indicating that the technology is getting closer to reaching the commercial stage. General Motors is testing self-driving cars in Scottsdale, Ariz. Ford plans to have a fully autonomous car in five years.

But the sector developing self-driving trucks possibly has the stronger profit motive, promising calculable gains in efficiencies and safety for the estimated 14 billion tons of freight moved in the U.S. by truck each year. Big-rig trucks account for only 5.6% of all vehicle miles covered on U.S. roads each year, but are involved in 9.5% of all driving fatalities, according to data from Otto.

Driver exhaustion and inexperience is a key factor. The American Trucking Association reported that the industry was short 48,000 drivers at the beginning of last year, a number the ATA expects to rise as high as 175,000 by 2024.

Menial pay and demanding work leave the industry reporting an astronomical 100% turnover rate, and industry estimates say trucking fleets must hire 89,000 drivers per year in order to eradicate the shortage.

Those kinds of numbers spell opportunity for automation. As a result, robo-trucks are now being road tested or are under development by leading truck manufacturers.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who's shown tremendous success developing and selling electric cars, in July issued his second major pronouncement on the company's future. His "Master Plan, Part Deux," includes plans for heavy-duty electric trucks and a Tesla Semi, which will "deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate," Tesla said.

Self-driving trucks are also being tested on roads or are under development by leading truck manufacturers. They're expected to maintain the same pace or perhaps take a faster track than cars.

"The arrival of self-driving cars is said to be about five years away and I think heavy trucks aren't that far behind," said Brandon Schoettle, a project manager at the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute.

The Michigan research institute in Ann Arbor is next door to a 40-acre test track, called M-City, a well-traveled test bed for self-driving vehicles.

The truck technology has an advantage over automobiles, Schoettle said, because the majority of driving is on highways and freeways — easier territory for the autonomous technology to navigate than inner-city driving with cars.

The trade also comes with cutting-edge credentials. Otto co-founder Anthony Levandowski is a University of California, Berkeley, industrial engineer who, while working with Google's Street View, launched two companies based on his mapping and robot technologies. Google acquired both companies and folded them into its self-driving car unit.

Levandowski's partner, Lior Ron, is an Israeli army intelligence veteran who earned an MBA at Stanford before taking the role of product lead at Google Maps.

Robotrucks See Early Use In Mines, Ports

Despite skeptics and safety questions, the era of self-driving vehicles is clearly underway. Automakers and tech companies are plowing billions of dollars into research and forging alliances in a rush for the inside lane on the automobile's most revolutionary track since the Model T.

While Tesla, General Motors, Ford and others are moving aggressively, so are the truckers. Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler (DDAIF) debuted its Freightliner Inspiration truck in May 2015, which it called the world's first licensed autonomous truck. It's licensed to operate on public highways in the state of Nevada, but with a licensed truck operator.

Volvo introduced its first autonomous truck, the Volvo FMX, early last year and conducted its first live demonstration at a mine in northern Sweden, with the idea that it can improve transport efficiency and productivity in mines, ports and other hard-to-access areas. The trucks make it possible to optimize mine logistics and can also go into areas that are unsafe for humans.

U.K.-based miner Rio Tinto (RIO) already operates a fleet of 53 driverless mining trucks, made by Komatsu, in Western Australia. The units are equipped with connectivity sensors, GPS and radar navigation. While nowhere near as complex as driving on highways or streets, the basic demands on the technology are the same.

Similarly, Australia-based BHP Billiton (BHP) has been working with Caterpillar (CAT) to test autonomous technology, also in Western Australia.

What all the autonomous driving vehicles have in common is the addition of advanced driver assistance systems, or ADAS, which provide the eyes, ears and brains of autonomous vehicles. For over-the-highway trucks, companies generally contend that autonomous systems will control the truck when on highways. The driver will take over to deal with exits, local roads and freight yards, and act as a "logistics expert" during the shipment.

In the auto field, Mobileye (MBLY) is a leading provider of ADAS technology. Also standing to benefit from the rise of autonomous vehicles is chipmakers' NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Nvidia (NVDA).

Others in the field include Bosch and Delphi Automotive (DLPH), Autoliv (ALV) and Magna International (MGA).

A Robotruck Edge Over Autos?

Kyle Landry, an analyst at Lux Research, thinks it's possible that self-driving trucks could possibly enter on-the-road service before self-driving cars, having gained a boost from the same technology being developed for cars.

Based on an analysis of automakers developing self-driving vehicles, Lux said Daimler has a head start on other manufacturers in terms of development and testing, and given its strong position in the trucking industry.

Uber, the provider of ride-hailing services, recently forged relationships with Daimler and Volvo for the development of self-driving cars. Daimler and Volvo have plans to introduce and operate their own self-driving cars on Uber's ride-sharing network.

"We are incredibly excited by the potential for self-driving cars to further our mission of bringing reliable transportation to everyone, everywhere," Uber founder and CEO Travis Kalanick said in a blog post announcing the Daimler deal. While he made no specific reference to trucks, Uber has already shown its interest in self-driving trucks with the Otto acquisition.

Another competitor developing self-driving trucks is the Scania subsidiary of Volkswagen (VLKAY).

In April, about a dozen self-driving trucks from Scania Group, Daimler, Volvo and others drove hundreds of miles to demonstrate how they would operate when "platooning," in which multiple trucks using GPS and sensor technology drive in a coordinated line. Autonomous caravans can reduce up to 20% of fuel consumption vs. driving individually, in addition to lowering emissions.

Scania and Toyota plan a truck-platooning trial in Singapore. They aim to test a manned truck leading a line of digitally-tethered driverless trucks on public roads. Under this scenario, multiple truckloads of cargo at Singapore's port can be transported between terminals by just one driver in the near future.

Also in the running among drone-truck developers: Texas-based Peterbilt and Illinois-based Navistar International (NAV).

The Future Of Commercial Transportation?

Otto wasn't alone on its beer run. A licensed truck driver was in the sleeper section to monitor how Otto performed.

For a cost of $30,000, Otto plans on retrofitting existing trucks to add automated driver assistance technology, which includes cameras, radar and laser technology.

"Together with Uber, we will create the future of commercial transportation," Otto executives wrote in a blog post when the acquisition was announced. "First, self-driving trucks that provide drivers unprecedented levels of safety; and second, a platform that matches truck drivers with the right load wherever they are."

Otto was founded in January by a veteran of Google Car and another who previously ran Google Maps.

Data compiled by Otto says U.S. interstate highways total 222,000 miles and carry 4.3 million commercial trucks. On any given day, it says, trucks move 70 percent of all cargo in the U.S. — that's 14 billion tons of freight annually.

Chris Spear, CEO of American Trucking Associations, gave a state of the industry address in October in which he made a case to move forward on autonomous vehicle technology.

"Autonomous vehicle technology is real, and it's here," he said. "If properly developed, it has the potential to dramatically improve safety and reduce congestion. This technology has the potential to get trucks moving, reduce fuel burn and emissions, and increase miles driving — all measurable returns to companies — and drivers," he said. The trucking industry loses $49.6 billion each year to congestion, which the self-driving truck could help reduce, he added.

As the autonomous technology hits high gear, the big roadblocks in the drive toward self-driving trucks is the need to develop regulations and insurance policies to cover this new era. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in October issued federal guidelines for autonomous vehicles, which is applicable to passenger and commercial vehicles, trucks included.

The Department of Transportation issued its guidelines on self-driving vehicles in September.

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