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Where's the money going to come from???/


rockfl9
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9 hours ago, Average joe40 said:

Caz, I'm new to the forum world. I was wondering how you would know if somebody had more then one profile? I have been lurking for a long time and noticed that some people have been accused of this. 

A lot of times u can tell based on writing style...other times Mods will let u know...& in the case of CaddyShack...he/she (depending on visit sequence)..spilled the beans. Funny part was he/she flat out told me the ONLY reason he/she comes here(DV) is to  argue....CRAZY

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9 hours ago, Average joe40 said:

Rock, People buy things they can't afford all the time. It's all around you. You can't  do anything about it. People make their own choices and have  to live with the consequences good or bad. I'm going to make a profit, loose a small amount, or brake even on this investment. 

AJ40...pretending to show compassion for others (while degrading them at the same time) financial situation is straight out of the LOPster's for DUMMY's 101 handbook.

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Rock, I just read what Adam posted about the potential rv, rate possibilities and there affects on Iraq. Like I said in my original post, I have no knowkedge of world economics. I'm sure you also took a look at what he had to say. It seems plausible that the rv could definitely happen some time in the future and they can capitalize with a profit over time. I'm curious to hear what you and others who believe in a lop or no rv have to say after reading what his opinion is? He explained where the money will come from with a smaller increase in value or did I miss something? 

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Joe40 !  I am not allowed to see Adam's latest post on the RV "potential".. To my recollection It was assumed that after RV all banks would buy the dinar , but not explained WHAT they would do with it????   If you crack a book on how US banks handle foreign currency trades you would see that the bank will buy for a broker at the price he is willing to pay, It is an over-the-counter transaction.. The broker supplies the cash from his account at the bank... The banks funds are not involved.  There has to be some human willing to give up the dollars..  In marketing terms it is called the greater fool theory.

As for the rate estimation I really don't see how it can be predicted at all.... It is anyones guess. It is the chicken/egg thing .. If they change the rate and there are no buyers the rate change is meaningless.

 

 

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Rock, It wasn't necessarily a rate prediction. It was more of a prediction on how he thought it was going to go down. I didn't know that  you weren't aloud to see it. I don't really know what I'm aloud and not aloud to say so I will just leave it alone. I will say that based on the the way he explained it, it made a lot of sense. He explained how the rv over time will pay for itself and then some. 

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17 hours ago, Average joe40 said:

 After reading what Adam had to say that last couple of days I would say non believers would have a hard time dis agreeing with his logic. I'm sure if they wanted to they could read what he had to say.

Lopsters are not allowed to see everything and can only comment here. I may be the only one left as I try to avoid open conflict. Yes, I wish I could see the latest to see if it is anything new. The story line has always been NOT TO WORRY Adam has lined up "banks" to allow you to exchange when the time comes . What the banks will do with it I haven't a clue????  US banks are in the DOLLAR business.   They will buy dinar only when they can swap for dollars ASAP.  The only way I see that happening is when the CBI/GOI allows NON-Iraqi's to buy USD.  That is prohibited today.

If you haven't read it before , read it now. DO not buy more IQD than you can truly afford to loose.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Well I'm back to the same ole question!   Where will the money come from to do any RV??? The UST doesn't want it. Ditto for the UBS, WF B/A etc. The only candidate is the CBI and they aren't buying IQD except from select Iraqis.  Currency trading is an over-the-counter deal . You must have a BUYER  a BROKER (bank maybe) and a SELLER at a given price. The possibility that a bank will buy and hold dinar is a MYTH !  It doesn't happen that way. Banks don't give away money if they can help it !.

As for the CBI changing the rate , it is possible but most likely logic says they will go up .    Bad news for holders of Government notes and bonds. So assuming they will need to borrow more next year they will hold it steady till the next budget comes out.

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I am open to all options. Investors need to know. We need to find someone to buy up this stuff or it will end up in the shoebox forever.  The CBI is the likely candidate BUT the CBI is almost BROKE .. Could be completely BROKE next year. Cant believe we have so many RVers  and no one can address this problem?

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  • 1 month later...
On ‎3‎/‎27‎/‎2017 at 4:08 PM, rockfl9 said:

I am open to all options. Investors need to know. We need to find someone to buy up this stuff or it will end up in the shoebox forever.  The CBI is the likely candidate BUT the CBI is almost BROKE .. Could be completely BROKE next year. Cant believe we have so many RVers  and no one can address this problem?

I know most RVers  BELIEVE that IF  the dinar revalues to some higher value that there are BANKS just waiting to get in on the action!  BUT if the cbi doesn't back up the RV with a full agreement to take back the dinar at the new price what BANKS would buy dinar????   The risk would be too great...  So the CBI says that they are SELLING the dinar at $0.10 BUT not buying any from outside the country our banks take a loss.  Why would they do that.  That's not good banking...

Then again why would the CBI buy back ANY dinar from outside the country?  They can easily print new bills for 6-8 cents each .... Without the guaranteed backing of the CBI reserves that is all any IQD note is worth to them. . 

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20 hours ago, caz1104 said:

LOL...Rockfish like the Energizer Bunny. Does anyone at home take u seriously?...it can't just be here

The Energizer Bunny and the Junk Yard Dog.  Caz, do you think there are enough crazy bankers? Oh , I forgot you don't make meaningful statements.

 

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57 minutes ago, caz1104 said:

and u don't make redundant statements?......but to answer your question...why do you not think there are "crazy" bankers?  Just like ANY profession....crawl out from under ur ROCK....pun intended

SO  You are expecting a bunch of crazy bankers to BUY your dinar!  That is the best answer to the question cause no SANE banker will do it.

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On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 4:02 PM, rockfl9 said:

SO  You are expecting a bunch of crazy bankers to BUY your dinar!  That is the best answer to the question cause no SANE banker will do it.

Never said that....you asked if there were enough crazy bankers?  I answered that I believe there are just like in any profession...ie  doctors, lawyers, car salesmen, farmers, construction workers...etc

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On ‎12‎/‎31‎/‎2016 at 2:26 PM, EverCurious452 said:

The US can print dollars and Iraq can print IQD, but Iraq can NOT print dollars and the US is not going to give Iraq 80T dollars (which is more money then exists on the entire planet of all currencies combined).  So the question that Rock continues to ask and no one can answer is where does IRAQ get the dollars to finance an RV?  The answer in my view is that they can not which is why the RV is and always has been a myth.

Yo Johnny Come Lately!!! The statement I responded to was.....IRAQ can't just poof make money (DINAR).....when in FACT it can.......simple. All your other mumble jumbo has been discussed at nausea. You believe Iraq won't RV.............cool. Now you can rest peacefull knowing that you too chimed in with your negative opinion....like the rest of the EYORE LOPSTERS!!!

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Wow this site is still going?  Amazing.

9 hours ago, caz1104 said:

Yo Johnny Come Lately!!! The statement I responded to was.....IRAQ can't just poof make money (DINAR).....when in FACT it can.......simple. All your other mumble jumbo has been discussed at nausea. You believe Iraq won't RV.............cool. Now you can rest peacefull knowing that you too chimed in with your negative opinion....like the rest of the EYORE LOPSTERS!!!

 

Correct, Iraq can print all the IQD it wants (that IS what I said).  The point is that what gives IQD value is (the CBI's willingess to exchange them for) dollars, and they can't print dollars so the CBI can only value IQD based on how many dollars they have in reserve and how many IQD are out in the world.

Edited by EverCurious452
bad auto correction
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So, why would anyone and everyone in Iraq rush to exchange their dinars for dollars after a RV,

if they were basically equal value. They can use either one in Iraq, we cant use dinars here in the US.

The reason I would exchange my dinars would be because I am in the US and need dollars. Otherwise if the rate went up and the local stores accepted dinar I would keep them. Then there is the fact that some say after the value of the dinar increases it will then decrease quickly. . More speculation. Lots more.

Are we there yet.

Edited by jg1
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1 hour ago, jg1 said:

So, why would anyone and everyone in Iraq rush to exchange their dinars for dollars after a RV,

if they were basically equal value. They can use either one in Iraq, we cant use dinars here in the US.

The reason I would exchange my dinars would be because I am in the US and need dollars. Otherwise if the rate went up and the local stores accepted dinar I would keep them. Then there is the fact that some say after the value of the dinar increases it will then decrease quickly. . More speculation. Lots more.

Are we there yet.

I suspect pretty much everyone would want to exchange due to speculating exactly as you just offered that it might go down as fast as it went up, but lets ignore that.

 

Supposed Iraqi's don't exchange for dollars (or are not allowed to).  But if the IQD jumps up in value by a huge amount, Iraqis will be  rich (at least relative to what they used to be) and when they suddenly get a lot of money they will want to buy a lot of stuff right?  There is huge pent up demand.  Smart phones, and bulldozers, and everything in between.  All that comes from companies in other countries that will NOT accept dinar (as they can't spend them on anything just like you can not).  So importers will have to use dollars to buy all that stuff, or use dollars to convert to other currencies to buy all that stuff (just like they do now) to then sell for dinars in Iraq.  That alone would very quickly bankrupt the CBI if they were to raise the rate by a large amount (i.e. what folks talk about here, 1 to 1 or even 0.1 to 1).

 

If somehow Iraq were to hugely raise the rate and not allow local exchange even for imports, so there is no way Iraqi's could benefit from their new found wealth, that it was just a give away (of at least a big chunk if not all of the CBI reserves) to foreign speculators, do you think the government (and all the people in it) wold be intact and alive the next day?  I don't think so.

Edited by EverCurious452
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19 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

 

 

Correct, Iraq can print all the IQD it wants (that IS what I said).  The point is that what gives IQD value is (the CBI's willingess to exchange them for) dollars, and they can't print dollars so the CBI can only value IQD based on how many dollars they have in reserve and how many IQD are out in the world.

Printing IQD is expensive and wasteful... It is an "inconvertible currency" and Iraq has restrictions on it leaving (or returning to ) the country.  It could remain that way FOREVER. NEVER go  "international".
The CBI could change the rate but it would only affect domestic commerce. The fact is that the number of USD coming in is limited to the amount of oil shipped and currently that is capped.  Wouldn't help the Iraqi's to do so.

It has been reported that the reserves have shrunk by at least 40%, but no idea if the amount of dinar has been reduced . Although it is not supposed to it really has been making loans to the GOI.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/30/2017 at 8:53 AM, jg1 said:

Thanks evercurious452, I  assume that if there is a RV, that the dinar would go international. They cant stay the way in isolation forever. 

It is possible!

The RV and the proverbial "going international"   are not tied together.

The RV would be a decision by the CBI and MOF to adjust the exchange rate in Iraq. There would need to be a beneficial financial reason. I can't think of one at this time.

Currently , the dinar is not traded across the borders, it is an EXCLUSIVE currency ... That is a policy decision of the GOI.  So that would require a change by the government , the CBI might try to influence  that one way or the other. Most generally the reason is to have command of the volume of the currency in circulation they want to be sure there is enough  but not create an excess. Currency that leaves the country would have to be replaced , that is an extra expense. Now they know some dinar has '"escaped". What will they will do about it ? Buy it back ? They don't have to.    Ignore it? That's what they are doing now. Yes, it could stay that way forever.

 

 

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