This was a post from another site not sure if this has gotten here yet so Im passing this on.
ISX and the “International Standing”
ISX made the announcement they were going to be Internationally recognized. Here’s the statement:
"Iraq participated in the meetings of the Executive Directors of the European Union, the Asian stock exchanges such as the delegation of the Iraqi market for securities in it".
This was announced by the representative of Iraq at the meeting of the Managing Director of the Iraq Stock Exchange, Taha Ahmed Abdul Salam. He said that Iraq’s participation task on the road to effectively attend to such global forums confirms the return of Iraq to the environment internationally.
He said the meeting dealt with ratification of the final accounts of the Union in 2009 and approval of the report of the directors of stock exchanges by, proposed plans for the Union in 2010, to approve the mechanism for assessing stock members, who number 28 Arab bourse, Asian and European countries through the volume of activities undertaken by the stock market.
Now when this came out people immediately thought the currency would be recognized because of this statement.
The General Authority for the Iraq market will be held on Saturday, 19/06/2010. That’s tomorrow folks, I can tell you now that tomorrow only brings a vote.
Among the most important paragraphs of the agenda, approved the final accounts for 2009 and the election of new board of directors last one year only.
They are only approving the accounts,you know the players in the market.
Here’s another one but pay attention to the date:
And discuss the agenda for the Work Committee for the purpose of the meeting of the General Union in October 2010.
The first official meeting starts October 2010 — the last section of the Banking Reform is concluded October 31, 2010, " I’ll say this again " The stock market gets recognized in October. The Banking Reform Project from the World Bank concludes October 31 2010, so:
They do the banks first
then the stocks
We get - exchange rate equilibrium. This one has had me mystified for the past four weeks. But I think we got a handle on this.
This one should put smiles on your faces. I’m going to take three documents and I want you to read them. Here’s how crafty these folks are:
1. World Bank DPL – Page 18 of 119
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/externa … 0Use0Only1.pdf
Preliminary analysis by the IMF suggests that the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals. The recent fall in oil prices suggest that the Iraqi Dinar might be slightly overvalued, but there seems to be no significant deviation from the equilibrium real effective exchange rate.
Relatively low levels of inflation also suggest that overvaluation risks brought about by rising domestic prices are contained.
Overvalued??? How could that be
2. IMF Document – March 2010 — IMF Country Report No. 10/72
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ … 010/cr1072.pdf
The lack of data and large structural changes in the Iraqi economy preclude any meaningful estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate. A very crude assessment suggests that the dinar is broadly in line with fundamentals. With the drop in oil prices, it appears that a possible prior undervaluation has disappeared, and that the dinar could even be somewhat overvalued.
OverValued???
3. Iraq’s Ministry of xxxxxxxxx
http://www.mop-iraq.org/mopdc/index. … pid=295&lng=en
Justifications for exchange rate adjustment:
There are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment.
It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than 3.208 dollar per dinar. When assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports… etc.
Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for 1.134 dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.
The reason I bring this up is that the World Bank and IMF were indicating that the IQD was overvalued.
But they were basing this on the real rate of $3.208 not .00085
essentially, all there calculations were originally made at the $3.208
and they are right it is overvalued but they say not by much. So what does that mean? I’ll let you decide.
We learned two things today:
The rate of 3.208 is slightly overvalued from it’s equilibrium point
which blows me away but I’ll run with it for now, and two that October 31 concludes the project for Banking.
And we know what happens on June 30th, so the banks fall first and the M2 and stocks fall second.
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