Massoud Barzani’s Sinking Ship

[SocalDinar]

Massoud Barzani’s Sinking Ship

Posted on February 16, 2016

 

The ongoing political and economic crisis in northern Iraq is forcing many Kurds to flee. Instead of fighting the causes of the exodus from Iraqi Kurdistan, however, the Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani is relying on patriotism and empty promises. Birgit Svensson reports from Erbil

By the time Kurdish President Masoud Barzani made his way to Germany for the Munich Security Conference, 35,000 of his countrymen had already preceded him. The last six months have seen a veritable exodus from Kurdistan. Instead of travelling to Germany “first class” in a private plane like their president, however, the Iraqi Kurds set off on foot via the Balkan route or by ship across the Aegean Sea.

No matter where you look today in the autonomous Kurdish regions in northern Iraq, whether in Erbil, Dohuk or Sulaimani, the people there want nothing but out. The Kurds are abandoning Barzani. The Kurdish television station KNN noted cynically that the fish in the Mediterranean are now learning Kurdish, showing a boat allegedly filled with refugees from Sulaimani that capsized off the Greek island of Lesbos. 33 of the passengers are said to have drowned – all Kurds from northern Iraq.

When Barzani noticed people beginning to flee the country, he ordered the long overdue re-conquest of the town of Sinjar. It had been under the control of the IS – the terrorist militia Islamic State – since August 2014. The terrible fate of Sinjar’s mostly Yazidi inhabitants dominated headlines in the world press for weeks: trapped in the mountains without food or water, the women abducted by IS fighters, the men murdered. There was talk of a Yazidi genocide. Barzani’s Peshmerga came under fire for not being able to protect the town and its nearly 40,000 inhabitants.

When the former Kurdish freedom fighters finally entered Sinjar triumphant in early November, the 7,500 soldiers found a town that had already been laid to waste by heavy American bombing. There was no trace left of the IS. Barzani mounted a hill in the Sinjar Mountains the very same day to declare the victory of the Peshmerga over the IS. His announcement set off a wave of patriotism.

More Kurdish flags than had been seen in a long time could be seen waving all around the ancient citadel of the Kurdish city of Erbil. A motorcade with much honking of horns filled the streets, accompanied by patriotic songs. Just like the bright yellow sun in the middle of the Kurdish flag, the faces of the people were beaming as they gathered in the market square of the city of 1.2 million to celebrate “their” victory over the IS. But the rapture did not last long and the patriotic glue holding the Kurds together soon dissolved again. Now, they are once again packing up their belongings and making their way towards Europe.

Discontent with the political leadership growing

The Kurdish leader recently launched a further attempt to hold onto his people. At the end of January, he had his advisor Kifah Mahmoud announce that a referendum on the independence of Kurdistan would be held before the presidential elections in the USA. The Kurdish people should decide whether they want to have their own state or remain part of Iraq.

According to polls, the majority of the five million Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan are in favour of a state of their own, independent of Baghdad. But Barzani’s announcement of a referendum is not new. He has already promised the same thing three times previously, when conditions were better than they are today. So why should he really go through with it this time, many Kurds in the region are wondering. And how will it change anything if the people express their will? “Those at the top do what they want to anyway; they don’t care about the people.” Discontent with the political leadership is steadily growing.

The reason for the mass exodus from Iraq Kurdistan is therefore not only down to the threat posed by the IS, although the militia has dug itself in just 30 kilometres outside of Erbil and 40 kilometres from Dohuk. The military positions have not changed much for one and a half years now – since August 2014.

Qaraqosh, the formerly Christian town halfway between Erbil and Mosul, is also still in the hands of jihadists, as is Tilkef on the plains of Nineveh near Dohuk. A mere 200 kilometres separate Sulaimani from the IS “caliphate”. And yet, except for a few refugee camps, which reflect the reality, none of the fear that is rampant elsewhere can be felt in the second largest city of Iraqi Kurdistan. Yet people are leaving Sulaimani in droves.

No work, no prospects, no future

It is mostly the younger Kurds who are turning their backs on their homeland. They say that Kurdistan can offer them no work, no prospects and no future. Hopes for reform have been dashed and the integration of returnees has been a failure.

The situation is further exacerbated by a major political and economic crisis. In the last four months of 2015, civil servants’ salaries went unpaid. And the Kurdish regional government plans to pay only 25 percent of January wages. As over 70 percent of employees work in public service, this applies to the majority of the population. Power outages are the rule, not the exception. Infrastructure projects are on hold and foreign oil companies have left the region because they were not paid either.

A deep rift between the Kurdish region and the central government in Baghdad has put a stop to transfer payments. It all began with the decision by Kurdistan’s regional government exactly four years ago – a decision bordering on hubris – to build its own pipeline to Turkey in order to sell the oil and gas produced in Kurdistan on the world market on its own – a first step towards economic independence from Baghdad.

At the same time, however, Kurdistan still expected to keep receiving the same 17 percent of the overall Iraqi budget. The Iraqi government, however, ties these payments to oil sales, the volume of which has not yet been agreed on. Since the IS blitz in the summer of 2014, Baghdad has stopped payments to Erbil altogether.

Reverting to authoritarian structures

It is amply evident by now that the region is unable to finance itself. Ninety-five percent of its budget comes from a single source: oil. Although Barzani and his regional government were able to ensure stability and peace in Iraqi Kurdistan after the fall of Saddam Hussein, attracting foreign investment and establishing a booming real estate sector, the development of other sectors of the economy such as agriculture, industry and tourism has been utterly neglected.

This short-sightedness is now coming home to roost. The fact that the Kurdish president refuses to step down, as required by the country’s constitution, is only making matters worse. When demonstrators in Sulaimani demanded more democracy and a parliamentary system, violent clashes ensued. Barzani accused the opposition party Goran of sedition and unceremoniously threw its members out of the regional government. The next day, he refused the head of the regional parliament entry into Erbil and thus stopped cold any representation of the people. The Iraqi Kurds, who like to see themselves as pioneers of democratic development, are now reverting to authoritarian structures.

As a final resort to put a stop to Kurds fleeing from Kurdistan, Turkey introduced a visa requirement for Iraqis a few days ago. The traffickers in Dohuk, Erbil and Sulaimani quickly responded by offering Kurds new ways to reach Europe. Only now it’s going to cost them that much more.

 

http://ekurd.net/massoud-barzani-sinking-ship-2016-02-16

Edited February 16, 2016 by SocalDinar

[Antietam]

Stability in all of sovereign iraq is a necessary requirement for economic growth out of the ashes of war. There is NO good news coming out of iraq. I call a spade a spade. Gurus call it a "golden opportunity to buy dinar". I'm sure caz will quickly weigh in.

[caz1104]

"SOMEONE SUNK MY BATTLESHIP".........is considered good news to LOPsters.........LOL

Edited February 16, 2016 by caz1104

[SocalDinar]

The Kurds used to be the epitome of stability in Iraq. Now they are begging the world for money. Abadi is offering to help but they gotta give up the oil.

[Texstorm]

Sounds like a perfect recipe for a HCL ! GO RV ! 

[caz1104]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm   the barter system, alive & doing well.Sidenote: I used to have a friend from Pakistan that thought other countries should want to provide financial assistance with no strings attached. He also thought that business should provide vehicles to all their employees.....free of charge...........nice thought.

Edited February 16, 2016 by caz1104

[SocalDinar]

Do you think a hydrocarbon law is important Texstorm? I used to think it mattered. But then I realized that they don't adhere to their own constitution so why would they obey an oil law. ?

.

[Texstorm]

$ .....do I need to say anymore.

[SocalDinar]

News Agency- The Economist

 

Kurdistan Fin de renaissance Once booming, the statelet is now in crisis

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AS RECENTLY as two years ago the Kurds of Iraq were riding high, at the peak of a well-deserved social and economic recovery following decades of hardship and isolation under Saddam Hussein. The region seemed an island of stability even as the rest of Iraq was convulsed by violence following the American invasion and overthrow of the Iraqi leader.

But the Kurdish miracle is dissipating. The Kurds have suffered a triple blow: the freezing in 2014 of their take of the federal budget, which constitutes 95% of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)’s overall budget; the emergence of Islamic State (IS) which took control of Mosul, just 85km (50 miles) from the capital, Erbil, making travel to Kurdistan’s oil facilities slower and more hazardous; and a steep drop in oil prices.

In this section

Today the skeletons of unfinished buildings and half-empty watering holes bear witness to those once-high hopes. The residents are increasingly unhappy. Although the 70% drop in oil prices or the war against IS could not have been predicted, the severity of the crisis could surely have been mitigated.

History has been harsh to the Kurds, scattered across several countries without their own state. In the 1980s Saddam used poison gas against them; in the 1990s, though they were protected by a Western no-fly zone, he was determined to cripple them financially. UN sanctions following his invasion of Kuwait had harmed the whole country; and a three-year civil war between Kurdish political factions left them drained. But in 2003, following the removal of Saddam, a Kurdish renaissance began and lasted a decade.

Even in Iraq’s darkest years, 2006 and 2007, when al-Qaeda battled the Americans in the Sunni heartlands, Kurdistan’s impressive 10% annual growth rate set it apart. Foreign and domestic investment rose. The oil industry and property boomed; tourism, though still small, picked up; and the number of expatriates rose. Foreign businesses flocked to Erbil. Yet during this time, opportunities were squandered. “They entered into the financial crisis with a regional economy that was structurally weak and overwhelmingly reliant on high oil prices,” says Patrick Osgood, Kurdistan bureau chief for Iraq Oil Report, a subscription news service.

Some 60% of Iraqi Kurdistan’s population is dependent on the public payroll, and most of them have not received their full salaries for months. Though Kurdish officials blamed Baghdad’s budget freeze (which has since been relaxed), the KRG’s inability to make up for it through increasing oil sales played a role. A feather-bedded public sector has also limited the development of a more vibrant private one. The relative security of working for the government has made it much less attractive for public employees to move to the private sector—a carefully crafted strategy, many reckon, by government parties keen to buy loyalty.

“No party pushed for private-sector development because it was not in their interest,” said Roger Guiu, a research fellow at MERI, a Kurdish think tank. “It’s not a matter of firing people from the public sector, it’s making employment in the private one more attractive.” Less reliance on the public jobs might have led to less dissatisfaction and ultimately prevented the social unrest now rippling through the region as the government has run out of money.

In the cities of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, and in other smaller towns, residents have in recent weeks taken to the streets to rail against both government corruption and unpaid salaries. New austerity measures have angered many after the KRG announced in January that it would cut high wages by 75% and lower ones by 15%. Meanwhile official estimates report that the poverty rate has risen to 12%, up from 3% three years ago. A 30% increase in the population brought about by Syrian refugees and internally displaced Iraqis has also caused problems, including an unmanageable increase in demand for water and electricity.

The continuing war against IS means that despite the collapse of oil revenues and Baghdad’s freezing of the federal budget, military spending has increased, though officials refuse to give numbers. Peshmerga soldiers on the front lines have been exempt from the austerity measures and still supposedly get their full salary. But even Kurdish soldiers have suffered from salary delays—with predictable results. Some fighters are exchanging the front line for boats from Turkey to Greece, in striking evidence of just how depleted the West’s strongest ally in Iraq has become. Deserting soldiers are just some of the 37,000 Kurds who have left Iraq for Europe since 2014. Most of them cite government corruption and financial hardship as their reason for migrating.

As the battle against IS nears its third year, exasperation is increasing and expatriates are trickling away. The government is offering no reforms that look likely to revive the economy. It does not help that the region is also in constitutional crisis: the president of the KRG, Masoud Barzani, served two terms that came to an end in 2013, and was then granted a two-year extension by the Kurdish parliament. That prolongation expired last August, and yet he remains in office—in the 11th year of an eight-year term.

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21693615-once-booming-statelet-now-crisis-fin-de-renaissance

Edited February 26, 2016 by SocalDinar