IQD Continuing to Strengthen vis-a-vis the USD.

[TexAg91]

Just hit XE.COM.

 

As of 1537 CDT, the rate is 1123 to one USD.

By comparison, a month ago it was 1135 (with a large portion of SEP in the 1180 range) and 6 months ago it was bopping between 1160 - 1190.

 

May mean nothing, but since the middle of August, the lower ranges have been getting lower.

 

Anyway I can't find a low end as low as 1123 until now. Let's hope the trend continues.

[The Machine]

Just hit XE.COM.

 

As of 1537 CDT, the rate is 1123 to one USD.

By comparison, a month ago it was 1135 (with a large portion of SEP in the 1180 range) and 6 months ago it was bopping between 1160 - 1190.

 

May mean nothing, but since the middle of August, the lower ranges have been getting lower.

 

Anyway I can't find a low end as low as 1123 until now. Let's hope the trend continues.

 

 

it's nothing important regarding the dinar ...... but it is something to concern yourself about the dollar

 

the dollar has devalued slightly against other currencies this past week, charts below show the decline of the dollar.

 

as the dinar is pegged to the dollar, the more a dollar decreases in value the less dinar you need for the equivalent value. The dinar as a pegged currency cannot fluctuate on its own,  any movement is due to movement in the dollar.

 

Chart dollar v euro http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=1W

 

Chart dollar v pound  http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W

 

on the flip side the dollar has appreciated against other currencies this week like the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen ...... but all that means is they have been falling faster than the USD.

[FlyHi]

Great explanation Machine.

 

Sometimes the thing you are looking at is affected by another factor which you are not focusing on.

 

Indeed the movement is with the dollar (downward) and its weaker purchasing power means less IQD for your buck, but still not something that happens in the market. Yes, it also affects your buying power with your currency dealer so their rates may go the wrong way with this weaker USD data so you end up spending more US $ now to get the same amount of IQD you could have purchased a week ago from a dealer.

 

Looking at the XE.com rates is a bit meaningless at this time until the CBI announces a rate change since it has a program rate, not a market rate which XE.com tries to show...so it is misleading until the rate "pops".

[Antietam]

Two great explainations, gentlemen. The only thing that matters is the CBI auction price which is still firmly pegged at 1166 dinar to the dollar. If an RV occurs, the CBI will obviously change this relationship for the whole world to see.

[FlyHi]

Personally I don't bother visiting XE.com for the rates as one can have a roller coaster ride of emotions that all contribute to stress and elevated BP...no one needs that! 

Not to overstate this, but at this time the rates are gobbledygook. They have no connection to reality and what you can do with your bundle of collectibles as the currency is not tradeable on the open market outside of Iraq. 

 

Simply wait for the announcement from CBI or text from Adam....way less stress!

[magawatt]

I'm practicing sizzling my drink with the little unbrella. Practice, practice, practice!

[SnowGlobe7]

[gymrat76541]

So the question is: When the oil prices begin to rebound - what's the impact on the dinar?

[sandfly]

THANKS

[bigzac]

So the question is: When the oil prices begin to rebound - what's the impact on the dinar?

 

Well it depends on what is driving the price of oil to rebound.  I will lay out what I think the likely scenario will be, I'll arrange it as a series of steps or events for continuity purposes but just keep in mind many of these things happen simultaneously or even precede the actual events happening because institutional investors base their decisions on the impacts of future events and how the relate to value and free cash flows.  The first number will be the factor that drives the price increase.

 

1.  Fed announces rate hike for the USA prime lending rate

2.  This causes the value of the USD to rise.  (which we, dinarians, and the USA do NOT want to happen)

3.  The increasing value of the USD causes four things to occur, that I will list:

     3a)  The price of oil will rise regardless of supply or demand

     3b)  The cost of doing business in developing/exporting nations will rise dramatically

     3c)  The other major economic players will step up their lending to other nations, and attempt to devalue their currencies.  China has already announced their artifical devaluation intention/strategy.

     3d)  America's imports will rise, and exports fall (bad for USA)

 

So in this situation we have a near perfect storm of bad things for the USA.  Our lending ability goes down, our availability of inexpensive imports goes down, our ability to compete with exporting nations of the world goes down, we piss off a lot of the manufacturing nations of the world, and the price of oil goes up.  Our primary concern however are the first three.  IF our strategy is to suck massive value out of Iraq via an RV--this will create a perfect opportunity to do so by:

 

4.  America announces a massive currency/debt swap with various nations of the world, namely Iraq.

5.  America floods Iraq with our newfound, more valuable currency which achieves the following things.

    5a)  The value of the USD plummets, which solves our lending ability, lowers the value of oil, improves exports, and lowers cost of doing business with our trade partners.

    5b)  Increases upward pressure on the China/Russias currency--thereby making their lending abilities go down, the values of the currency go up, their exports to decrease.

    5c)  The value of the dinar rises dramatically due to diminishing supply of it--a win for the USA and IRAQ.

 

Heres hoping.......

[new york kevin]

Sandfly!