[carlablum]

Conscious / crisis between the Iraqi economy, the fiscal deficit and inflation rate of 9 trillion dinars / Investigations

Conscious / Baghdad / Haidar al-Bakri

Iraqi paper on the threshold of collapse since 1980To 2010 in the way of economy, finance and the crisis of inflation- 3,04.00 مع الك trillion deficit rate of real financial sweeping the Iraqi economy, the spectrum because of the lack of coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy and the great extravagance in the issuance of paper currency and the absence of a clear strategy for most of the productive sectors gives us signals إلى Clear to the presence of imbalance in the Iraqi economy led to the Retreat In the level of development and economic recovery as that crisis and Allkwat Mrabha which country was the primary cause of the high level of inflation but year after 2003 and the policy of openness and marked A big question about the size of the interest of the Iraqi economy harvested and whether our economy still needs to plans and strategies to promote and follow a policy of commercial arbitration.

Local funds larger than its value

According to Director of the Bank of Kadhimiya Sana Al Nuaimi from the One of the departments of banking for receiving funds from the citizens that "local funds . Too many larger than worth pointing out that "some depositors and recipients face a significant problem in how to receive money and brought in because the amount of 10 million need to be a big bag to get it, especially since the security situation is unstable and there is a difficulty in the process of transfer, so the central bank had to act quick and serious in to avoid this crisis.

اتمن Wish The back of our currency the old

Trader says in Shorja Jabbar Jawad shop owner (gardens) at the age of 56 Years old when he was displays of ceramic products, glass and Ilmaha in the early morning I asked him: how Haji said inadvertently contained a day dinars, and if he put me in astonishment What do you mean forty dinars Did you mean 40 000.

said I believe that the dinar in the old currency, particularly mineral pool to hold them when we feel that we are well versed in good physical condition (. Although I carry the little ones and I hope that our currency returns the old (five Owlos, dirham and the dinar) and other other items.

The interest rate was 20%, to 6% today to reduce inflation this fallacy large

According to an investor for the banking sector in the Iraqi Stock Exchange Hisham Mohammed, said "The decision to increase the capital of companies in three years to 250 billion dinars and Alsadran the central bank at this time was negative as investors showed no retreat at all levels of investment by 50%.He pointed out that


Subject has not been studied well and the size of the pluses and minuses involved in this resolution and that the interest rates imposed by the Central Bank of the loans granted Was 20% to reduce inflation today is 6% also to reduce inflation, there is considerable ambiguity and confusion in this policy Where the public interest as well as the resolutions of the Central Bank, as there are approximately 400 investors today have been their money into . The destruction and collapse.

Central Bank monetary policy is the oscilloscope has the right to make decisions

The chairman of verbal wiped the Iraqi market for securities super Noam Kassab said "The Central Bank has the right to issue such decisions being painted is one of the monetary policy and banking in the country is also the supervisor of the private banks and government in Iraq.

He pointed out that we discuss and give opinions on this resolution in Mait_khass in the time period The question of extension to broadcast the Iraqi Central Bank . To do so.

Adding ان The market was affected by this decision and stocks fell for all sectors The encroachment of this decline to include a T T Acharka not covered by the decision because of the percentage change in stock price . .

"The decision taken by the Central Bank of Iraq Reduce the proportion of change from 20 to 10% off Turn out that most investors Starts to offer their shares for sale so you can keep these amounts in order to be able to participate in the IPO to follow up, which will come from banks for the purpose of the increase and abide by the decision of the Central Bank When more than the number of vendors offer less prices also increase.

To worsen the security situation and economic reasons why the bank to take such decisions

The Director of the Iraqi banks in the Central Bank Khaled Shaker "Most of the decisions taken by the Bank SA tactful was under the conditions represented in the security situation and the deteriorating economic situation, these are all reasons enough to make the bank take the decisions, so that the bank makes decisions in the public interest.

He said .. Batokid we raise complaints The demands of the bank managers to the Governor of the Central Bank and the decision is up to Did you have a word with him in this resolution until such time by the Governor of the Bank d. Shabibi or advisor with the CBE I am not authorized to release.

Behind inflation and not to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar against world currencies

The expert on the financial affairs of the Star-Rubaie Baghdad University, said "the local currency of groups large and small notes and coins of denominations of (25-50 - 100) dinars in place since 2003 to now in the Iraqi market need to combine, modify, integrate and pull.

Rubaie added that "all these currencies, specifically groups great need to raise zeros and small need to raise cash value and reduce the issuance process frequently and to have the public has full confidence on the value of the real and the proof is that in 2006, was issued a coin to the market, but ignorance of the public was behind the lack of dealing with them.

He said, adding that "the currency of (25-50 - and 100) dinars, which were traded in 2003 السقوط 2003, and despite the high rate of inflation during the period of the previous regime in the fall I think a lot that small change and coins will return to the circulation because of the low level of inflation and have been really small coin But it soon disappeared from the local market because of the high prices of goods and reduced purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar.

Confidence in the local currency means lifting the zeros and return the real value of her

The Director of Media Baghdad Chamber of Commerce Ali Zein, "The counterfeit currency

In a number of banks lead to a lack of confidence in the local currency and this is a vacuum and a large distance of monetary policy in the Central Bank on track in real lift the zeros of the coin and talk about the existence of counterfeit currency we have to file complaints made by merchants and received by a member of the Council Chamber Qasim Muzaffar we have worked on address the central bank

Inflation because of the seriousness of the current fiscal and monetary policy

Expert in Economic and Financial Affairs Karbala University, Dr. Ahmed Hassan al-Asadi

أن "The continuing rise in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar due to في Policy in the Central Bank of Iraq through open auctions and withdraw liquidity.

Asadi said that "the increasing The seriousness of inflation on the value of Because of the Iraqi dinar Fiscal and monetary policies must be indicating that the importation of goods and services from abroad and the decline in production also led to the resort of monetary policy to support the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and I expect that the policy quiet In support of . The fundamental value of the Iraqi dinar led to the high level of current inflation for 2010.

He pointed out that the absence of micro-economic policy programmed programmable clear lines summoned to the pressure on the work monetary policy and the financial policy of raising current spending.

does not represent a monetary phenomenon but excreted factors and causes of internal and external

According to faculty In the Faculty of Business and Economics University of Baghdad الدكتورة هناء Dr. Hanaa Abdel-Hussein said "inflation suffered by the Iraqi economy does not represent a monetary phenomenon, but a magnification of another kind of thing demonstrated by a number of factors and causes internal and external, including lack of clear economic policy under the former regime in addition to the country's vulnerability to many of the crises and wars and the spread of values and bad behavior and corruption financial, administrative, and adopt a policy of openness To the outside world and freedom of handling and foreign exchange and the clear decline in the level of economic activity and eat in the level of real GDP.

Called Dr. Hana in the search to the need to adopt the central bank interest rates help to diversify financial market debt instruments Bojalha gradual and managed at the same time increasing levels of savings and control the levels of liquidity. ام Inflation . Mean, disruption of energy production means high unemployment and low growth rates and deteriorating incomes and falling living standards and waste of savings, with investors and the division of society into categories of rich, affluent and poor, destitute and disabled to the forces of production, so must look for exits and break the stagnation and move the forces of production and increase supply capacity and to ensure the basic needs of the consumer are considered priorities.

The fiscal deficit is estimated (9) Dinreetraci trillion in the budget for 2010 2010

According to Bank of Iraq adviser, and a representative of monetary policy in Iraq, the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, said that "disability is estimated in the budget for 2010 2010 بـ(9ن B (9) trillion IQD vary in proportion.

He added that "this figure is based on several considerations, including Asar oil is priced for the purposes of the budget 62 dollars a barrel, we Anghl that the percentage of the adoption of Iraq's exports by 99% of Iraq's imports and Mama prices barrel may increase the percentage of deficit of 20 trillion. Adding that the Central Bank of Iraq monetary policy set Bakannouna No. (56) for the year 2004 issue of inflation targeting and to address the rates rising and work to reduce the priority objectives to reach a state of lasting stability in the general level of prices, so by influencing the levels of general liquidity and control of the trends and at the same time to strengthen financial sector and balance and stability and stimulated to respond to market signals launched by the Central Bank over monetary policy.

"The Central Bank of Iraq Ajerytadela interest rate has adopted (policy rate), which became 20% since the beginning of 2007 before declining to 15% in 2008 to stimulate interest rates overall and reached 7% in 2009.

In the economy in order to achieve levels of savings and high desirable commensurate with the level of revenue that stimulate the public and businesses to increase their deposits with banks as well as to address the levels of high liquidity in the role played by the reference interest rate to strengthen the mechanical moving cash to curb the soaring inflation of 3.04 For the year 2010.

. He said he had risen at the same time, Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (by buying and selling auction of foreign currency since the autumn of 2003) at a rate of 34% in part to curb inflationary expectations as of November 2010 and the balance in the money market between the desire to retain the funds were real money dinar and the supply of such stocks by making the Iraqi dinar more attractive and more likely in the face of the phenomenon - Dollarization - and their implications for the deepening problems of replacement and hit the cash element of stability in the demand for money, which is deepening the money market disruption

. In order to present the facts of the current monetary policy and results in reducing inflation and stabilization. This paper is to express some aspects of the ECB's President, and that according to the monetary framework adopted at the present time.




The trends in monetary policy in the face of inflation

He pointed Amadhr trends monetary policy in the face of inflation incoming by reversing the inflation phenomenon, the steady escalation in the price level of goods and services, which exceeded the annual rates, regardless of the bottlenecks of the overall width and its contribution to the phenomenon of inflationary monetary policy on addressing the phenomenon and reduce the levels and especially the inflationary pressures generated by the aggregate demand or total spending in the economy.

Inflation is basically the dimensions of the two paragraphs of fuel, transport and communications, from the record

core inflation He Amadhr if we exclude the two paragraphs of fuel and lighting, transport and communications index of consumer prices, an indicator of inflation, you can access to the so-called core inflation inflation basisWhich reflects the pressure of aggregate demand in excess of 32% per year (less than half the annual inflation rate referred to in above

Then came a decline of about 13.6% annually, adding that the case of deep-rooted in the phenomenon of inflationary and that the foundation Eshrha inflation caused by demand pressures which led to the disruption of Amehal exchange market in terms of public's desire to retain cash balances over the supply of such stocks.

Reflecting an increase in the speed of money circulation and an increase in inflationary expectations in the same time, as it has become the latest source of inflationary persistence of the phenomenon.

Raise the external value of the Iraqi dinar

(Ie, the nominal exchange rate) in a manner commensurate with the real exchange rate to contain inflation expectations, taking into account the trends of the phenomenon of inflationary and the level of acceptance and availability of reserves, inflation and the level of acceptance and availability of international reserves with the Central Bank of Iraq and to curb inflationary expectations referred to above and to reduce the speed of circulation money.

Modify the interest rates Central Bank of Iraq

. To bring out the financial market strong signals to changes in proportionate and desirable with the evolution of the time structure of interest rates, which would help to ensure positive returns to public depositors in the banking system and reduce the status gap between savings and investment by borrowing unequal between the supply of funds intended for loans, and demand

Explaining this matter that the benefit is not a monetary phenomenon only, but is a real phenomenon is also related to the decisions of investors and investment returns, so the spacing mentioned between desired savings and desired investment caused real interest rates negative in the years 2005 - 2006 (before becoming a positive since the beginning of 2008) , which came under the influence of inflationary expectations high compared to low interest rates cash in banks and the general financial market.


Nominal Anchor The elimination of the gap between savings and investment is through access to interest rates steadily Twaznip subject to inflationary expectations and contained something adopted by the central bank to adopt the installed nominal (Nominal Anchor ) البنك ) Exchange rate to stabilize inflationary expectations of the public and at the same time for the benefit of the Iraqi dinar through monetary framework adopted by the flexible exchange rate policy, but under the influence of central bank intervened in order to achieve nominal exchange rate to the level of the real thing.

. The phenomenon of the spacing between savings and investment in essence, means the spacing between the productivity of investment and real return by hand, compared to returns on savings, especially when an investor to receive a real return on a regular plus a margin of inflation for prices of goods and services generated by investment is normally from its outputs, which in all cases more than interest and Istalp of return on savings over the rates of bank interest low from the perspective of the money market is not the organization, we mean the market is not legal (of Interest), which reflects the reality of actual transactions and the real value (for the price of money) no interest away from the regulatory framework adopted legal with the banking system Thdidalvaidp in cash.


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[ronscarpa]

Hi Carlam,

Thanks for this excellent post (+)..... it's a good find. Sometimes you amaze me with what you dig up for us.

Be blessed, and have a great weekend.

RON

[YANNAVIA]

Great find! Thanks for the post

[lambert]

Thanks Carla, very interesting but also very hard to read the translations. Fun stuff ahead eh??

[pitboss]

Thanks for the excellent post Carla.

[pourit]

Thanks Carla...not sure I totally understand but very interesting.

[Traconesu02]

Thanks for the post carlablum.

[quadraph0nic]

Thank you Carla!!

[Jac]

quadraph0nic, on 05 June 2010 - 01:32 PM, said:

Thank you Carla!!

Carla! This is amazing are you certain that you are not a journalist in your day job.?

[Doc31]

I'm sorry ... I'm just not buying this article.

No reflection on Carlablum.

The stated inflation rate is over a year old. The new "soaring" rate of inflation stated has actually DECREASED to 3% not soared to/or by 3.4%

Yes, it's hard to read and understand but this article smells of "DIS"-information ... not viable info

They are trying to sell us on the fact that it is impossible to come out at a good rate ... poor poor pitiful us! Yep, 1/2 TRILLION in FRBNY as well as a TRILLION USD from Uncle Sugar every 10 months ... uh, huh ... sounds like my kids tryingto sell me on something!

Peace to all
Doc31

[quadraph0nic]

Well one thing is for sure, change needs to happen because I think the focus is shifting from insurgents to no power, no water, our money is worthless and no foreign companies are coming here to do business...

Its almost like this whole time the powers that be used only security as their only means to justify themselves instead of taking on other tasks.